It Is Now Official

Above: The 2008 U.S. Olympic Women's Gymnastics Team, in addition to the three alternates chosen. Missing from the picture is Shayla Worley, whose very possible Olympic dream was ended at the last second with a broken leg.


The team selection for the USA women's gymnastics team, which will head off to Beijing to hold off China in its quest for Olympic gold, was announced the evening of July 19th, 2008. Though this team heads to the Olympics as the reigning world champions, just like in 2004, the drama and possibilities of who would go and who would stay was a far cry from in 2004, when the team selection was fare more open in terms of possibilities and resulted in a relatively shocking decision to invite veteran vault specialists Mohini Bhardwaj and Annia Hatch. This time around, the Olympic Trials in Philadelphia seemed to all but guarantee five spots on the team, with one being left to fight after. It looked like the last spot would be a fight between Jana Bieger, Ivana Hong, Mattie Larson, Bridget Sloan, and Shayla Worley. As all should know by now, Sloan got the last spot on the team and Jana Bieger, Ivana Hong, and little-known Corrie Lothrop were named as the alternates. My thoughts on the bubble girls competing for the last spots and their performances at the camp:


Jana Bieger: With a consistent showing on bars at trials, the 6th spot was ultimately Jana's to lose. Despite Jana's former greatness as an all-arounder (silver at 2006 Worlds), that would mean nothing to this team, all that was important was her uneven bars work. Unfortunately, two falls on her stalder Tkatchev (otherwise known as a Ricna) would be the undoing of a lifelong dream. And, to be perfectly honest, had Jana hit one of her bars sets at the camp and outscored Johnson, I think that would've been enough for her to make the team. It must be an absolute killer to think that ultimately being an inch or too far away from the bar during one routine meant the difference between a possible Olympic gold, and watching from the sidelines and wondering what could've been.


Ivana Hong: Well, at least her knee injury that she was rumored to have apparently was not serious, but Martha K. hinted that was Hong's lack of confidence, attack, and experience that kept her off the Olympic team. Though being an alternate to the team was pretty much known to be the case all along, Hong's relatively remote Olympic chances really boiled down to vault and bars. The numbers spoke for themselves, and Hong's vault being outscored by Samantha Peszek, Bridget Sloan, and Corrie Lothrop and having her bars being outscored by Shawn Johnson meant that there really is no immediate use for her on the team. Hong's help to the USA team on the world stage will have to be on hold until 2009.


Mattie Larson: Larson would've been the 3rd alternate at the very least if yet another injury (Memmel's "whiplash," and Worley's broken leg) hadn't happened to this most stylish of performers. If the injury hadn't occurred, it would've been interesting to see if Martha K. would've put Larson in for Hong as one of the two traveling alternates. After all, Larson had the 2nd highest floor score on day one, higher than Sacramone, Sloan, and Peszek, prior to her injury. The downfall to Larson's Olympic bid boiled down to even more than simply inexperience and her last-minute injury. Her best event, floor, was really the event USA needed her the least on. I think Larson's mature attitude and polished gymnastics can carry her a long way to the next quad and possibly the 2012 Olympics if she can hang in there that long. I only hope this isn't too big of a mental and physical setback for her heading into next year when USA could really use her to win medals in important competitions.


Bridget Sloan: If you read my "And spot #6 goes to...." post, you will definitely know how much I wanted Bridget to be on the team and I was thoroughly pleased to hear that she was indeed chosen as the last girl. However, her getting the last spot came down to very different reasons than I had imagined. With the five locks on the team, there was literally only one gap available, and that was on bars for both prelims and finals. However, with Shawn Johnson getting the 3rd highest bars score, Bieger's falls, and Sloan's missed handstands and closely caught release moves, the order of the day changed from getting a separate bars specialist to having the last girl add whatever tenths were left available to gain on vault and floor. With Sloan having arguably the best meet of her career at the most important meet of her career, she proved she could be counted on really any event as another good all-arounder for the U.S. team. I am still quite confused, and unhappy, that Sloan's UB scores fell like an avalanche between Nationals and the camp with hit routines. Apparently it was the aforementioned issues I mentioned of her UB routines that caused her scores to go down, but I would really like to see her being counted on as the 3rd bar girl and not Johnson, as Sloan certainly has the potential. Bridget's presence on the team now poses a threat to Chellsie Memmel competing AA in prelims, especially because of Sloan's far superior DTY at the camp.



Shayla Worley: I was devastated when I turned on my computer, went to NBCOlympics.com and the front page the headline stared at me "Shayla Worley out with broken leg." All of our possibilities for a 3rd bars girl have fallen one by one, and Worley was our last hope. Unfortunately, Worley's leg injury could've at least had a lower chance of not happening had she and her coach been smart and just trained and competed at the camp on bars ONLY. It seems as though Jeff Wood, and I guess Shayla as well, thought her making AA finals at the Olympics was a possibility, which as we all know is complete rubbish. However, it is also known that Martha K. has a strong liking for AAers, and after all with Sloan being picked over Bieger provides further evidence for that fact. Really, in the case with Bridget Sloan, she is just providing the USA with more options for back-up on floor, vault, and bars. However, an excellent 3rd bar worker who could consistently outscore Johnson by .2 or more would be all that was needed for the 6th spot, and frankly I think that if Hatch's 1-event Olympics in 2004 means anything Martha K. would've done the same for Worley.

And that last spot could've easily been Shayla Worley, who was scored favorably at Worlds with the world-renowned "international look," and also had a 7.0 A-score UB routine in the works. And that last spot could've easily been Ashley Priess as well, who was scoring in the 15.7-15.8 range at a meet back in May but made an admirable decision to back-out of the race when she wasn't healthy enough to compete. One can only imagine how she now must be wondering that if her body had been up to the challenge she really could've made it. And, last but not least, that could've easily been Courtney Kupets, who everyone was waiting with eager anticipation if she would make an Olympic comeback until a nasty Achilles injury put a second Olympic Games out of her August travel plans. Kupets never said she would go to Beijing, but with experience, consistency, polished and difficult UB work, and confidence to top it off one has to wonder why she would pass up all of that for what could've been the Olympic team gold she missed in Athens. But here and now has arrived, and though all of those possibilities have vanished, using Johnson or Sloan for the 3rd bars girl should be good enough for the U.S. team given our strength and depth on the other three events.


Team Line-Ups


VT

Prelims: Sacramone, Johnson, Liukin, Peszek/Sloan/Memmel
Finals: Sacramone, Johnson, Peszek/Sloan

Outlook: This is going to be by far the most confusing event to determine the line-up, with AA spots and extra tenths to be gained to the team total on the line. As of now, it looks like Memmel will sit out of vault, but Chellsie is known for pulling tricks out of nowhere that you never really thought she could do that well. (take Nats Day 2 vault as an example) So I'd say it would actually be a wise move to still let Memmel do vault, especially considering the fact that Martha K. would look extremely bad for not letting three girls do AA in prelims if Nastia or Shawn is to get injured and therefore cannot compete.

Now, with the Peszek/Sloan battle, we must not forget that Sloan's DTY scores were higher than Peszek's at the camp, and given how USAG judges tend to be rather lenient with Peszek that has to say something. Though this would seem to be almost unheard of for Martha K. (though if I'm not mistaken I think something like this happened at 2001 Worlds), Bridget could do VT in prelims and if she falters due to "inexperience" Sam P. can just go and do vault in team finals even if she didn't compete that event in prelims. It really is plausible, especially considering USA has no worries making to team finals (unless if Martha K. is really gunning for the top spot in prelims which would ensure USA of competing last on floor in team finals) and also that Sam P. can almost do a DTY in her sleep, even if it doesn't have the best form and height out there. And if Sloan's DTY is fabulous in prelims, well than you use her in team finals, simple as that. So, I would actually say I would sit out Peszek on vault in prelims, but knowing Martha K. it wouldn't be like her to be inclined to do that.

It will be interesting to see if Johnson is going to go last on vault in prelims/team finals. With the step latter scoring format the judges generally use, the panel may just be a tad bit more lenient with crediting Shawn's often underotated Amanar vault. Though knowing what happened to Cheng Fei in 2006, the judges are really free to do whatever they want to.


UB

Prelims: Liukin, Memmel, Sloan, Johnson, Peszek
Finals: Liukin, Memmel, Johnson (possibly Sloan)

Outlook: Well, there is no question that this will be the prelims line-up with Sacramone ditching this nemesis event of hers altogether. It might be wise to put Johnson before Sloan in team prelims, so that judges can be more lenient with possible missed handstands from Sloan who has a .3 advantage in start value over Johnson on this event. However, unless if Sloan's UB routine is day 2 nats worthy in prelims, I'd say Johnson is doing UB in TF. Johnson if far more consistent on this event than Sloan and was scoring much higher than her at the camp meet, so as of now she is definitely the better pick.


BB

Prelims: Johnson, Liukin, Memmel, Sacramone, Peszek
Finals: Johnson, Liukin, Memmel/Sacramone

Outlook: The real question here is who will be doing the lead-off BB girl (unless if they want to switch things up and go according to A-scores, which would make Nastia the lead-off BB girl in TF). Memmel and Sacramone are generally consistent performers here, and while Memmel definitely outclassed Sacramone on this event at trials Sacramone was apparently better than ever on this event at the camp with two 16.2's (one of those scores was definitely said to be inflated, while Memmel's 15.9 on day one was said to be fair). The decision of who competes BB in team finals will come down to who scores higher in prelims for sure, and if Memmel and Sacramone were to tie?


FX

Prelims: Johnson, Sacramone, Memmel, Liukin, Peszek/Sloan
Finals: Johnson, Sacramone, Memmel (any of the other 3 are fine substitutes)

Outlook: Floor Exercise is an excellent event for the USA women and this is certainly an apparatus in which they will look to close in on at least part of the team's deficit on China that will likely be carried over from the uneven bars. Any of the above six actually could be a legitimate use in team finals on this apparatus. I am predicting, however, that Sloan will sit this event out in prelims. Potential A-scores of Johnson (6.6), Sacramone (6.4), and Memmel (6.5) mean that Sloan's 6.2, even with the international look and all, just doesn't quite cut it. Sloan tied Peszek (with a potential A-score of 6.5 on FX) at the camp on day one with 15.3s apiece and with Peszek's higher start score she seems like an ever so slightly better choice here. However, they can easily swap in Sloan if Peszek is the slightest bit off in training. I believe Johnson, Memmel, and Sacramone are great for team finals on FX, I do wonder though if Memmel will still put in the double arabian (which will make a difference of .2 in the A-score if she were to do her original double full instead) even though she will have yet to compete it along with the rest of her routine until prelims at the Games.



Brief Analysis on What Each Team Member Brings to USA's Quest for the Gold


Shawn Johnson: The three-time world champion brings experience, consistency, and generally good scoring favor to the USA team. Oh, and we cannot forget that Johnson appears to be likely competing all four events in team finals at the Olympics. Johnson may just be contributing the top USA marks on vault, beam, and floor. If USA were to lose her than they might as well just hand the gold to China before the competition is to even begin.

Nastia Liukin: Liukin's uneven bars is reason enough for her to be on the team, and also contributes world-class work on balance beam and potentially good work on floor exercise. Experience of three world championships and winning nine world medals should prove invaluable to the USA team in Beijing.

Chellsie Memmel- USA's gold medal chances are in much better condition with Chellsie Memmel arguably being in the best shape of her life at really the best possible time, too. The whiplash incident at the camp likely won't be an issue heading into the games at all for the fierce competitior who tore her rotator cuff on her shoulder during the world championship team finals and went on to finish the meet like nothing had happened. Memmel has the potential to contribute in team finals on bars, beam, and floor.

Alicia Sacramone- Sacramone has won three world medals on the vault and her strength there alone adds several tenths to the team's score. A triple twist upgrade bumps up Alicia's start value on floor exercise to a 6.4 and barring something unusual should compete in team finals there as well. Contributing to the team on balance beam is also a strong possibility, and with seven world medals in her back pocket the self-proclaimed "mother hen" of the squad will bring leadership, determination, and experience to the USA team in Beijing.

Samantha Peszek- Peszek, who as said by Elfi Schlegel as "skittish last year" has improved and proved to be a solid and reliable competitor on all apparatus this year. Peszek does nothing breathtakingly spectacular but nothing bad either, and could do vault and maybe even floor in team finals. However, with Sloan now on the team Peszek could actually be sitting out on the event, vault, which many still consider as her top attribute to the team. Peszek's choice to become an all-arounder, though at times looked to be questionable, ultimately did pay off in the end.

Bridget Sloan- If Bridget can get those bars handstands consistent there is some possibility that we will see her on that event in team finals. She is also capable of contributing on vault and maybe even floor in team finals on the team, but her position is really more to be a plug-in athlete on those events, but certainly a good one at that.



Is This Process of Naming the Olympic Team Too Exhaustive For the Gymnasts?

With two major injuries (three if you count Memmel) happening at the camp, all signs seem to point to yes. While having three pressure-packed meets will do very well for the gymnasts' mental toughness and confidence levels heading into the biggest meet of their lives, the potential for injury, as proven at the camp, runs at an all-time high.

It was said by most insiders that five spots to Johnson, Liukin, Memmel, Sacramone, and Peszek were sewn up at trials and having them compete at this camp meet could indeed backfire on the USA team who wants to send a team that is not only the best possible team, but in the best possible shape.

However, Martha K. was definitely intelligent to wait to the last minute to select this team. In the end, Bridget Sloan was unquestionably the best pick for the last spot, but would anyone have said that back in Philly? Surely not.

Worley's injuries cannot really be blamed as much on this selection process, as she didn't compete at Nationals. But in her case, she could've easily been named had her leg held up and thus might've been able to have competed great UB routines at the camp.

Had the team been named in Philly, than there would be no Sloan or Worley on the roster and Bieger would've most likely been picked, and as the camp showed us all Jana really wasn't peaking at the right time. If I were to change how this selection process were to go down, I would say hold Nationals around or maybe a tad bit earlier than when Olympic Trials would usually be held (mid to late June) and hold an Olympic Trials in mid to late July, in front of a packed house and all, and decide the team right then and there. I think that would cover the needs for picking the team as close to the games as possible, and eliminating the camp meet entirely would do well for the girls staying healthy and in peak form in preparation for the Olympics.



That is all.

Karolyi Camp Rumor Roundup+ Analysis

Anyway, it appears as though the 12 girls that advanced to the final selection camp meet at the Karolyi Ranch arrived safe and sound yesterday and began their training sessions today. Below is a list of the rumors and insider info that I have picked up from various message boards and other sources.

• Apparently NBCOlympics.com is doing some coverage of the camp meet, but specifically what coverage we will be getting is unknown. Tomorrow there will be an AA competition around 12:30 P.M., and Saturday and EF competition around 5:30-6:00ish in which all of the girls compete two events. The official announcement has been said to be between 7:00 and 8:00 Central Time on Saturday evening, and it appears as though NBCOlympics.com will be the first source to officially leak out the info of the team selection to the public.
• There has been an abundance of varying reports that have suggested in the EF competition that either the gymnasts decide which events they will compete in (like they did at the Karolyi International Friendly meet back in May) or that Martha K. will be choosing the events for the gymnasts. It has also been said that Martha K. may even demand some of the gymnasts to compete on their weaker/weakest events in this meet to better analyze which bubble gymnasts can deal with the pressure and which ones cannot. However, Shawn Johnson's blog entry said that the gymnasts do choose the events they will compete in, so I would say that is what is most likely to happen.
• According to a message from USAG, only the families of the gymnasts will be allowed to see the meet, in addition to the selection committee and what not. However, no word yet if the Karolyi summer campers will get to see the meet like they did in 2004.
• Overall, most of the gymnasts have looked at least somewhat shaky in training sessions.
• Chellsie Memmel has been falling on her piked barani on beam.
  
• Samantha Peszek looks all-around shaky, though it is important to remember that Peszek looked lackluster in training at Nationals and Olympic Trials and in both cases turned in pretty solid performances.
• Shayla is looking especially solid and her good UB work looks like it definitely could get her the last spot on the team.
• Jana Bieger looks no different than usual; uninspiring, awful form, yet consistent.
  
• Bela is giving glowing reports on how tough Nastia is; Bela loves Nastia and Shawn to death so this isn't surprising. It has also been reported that Martha K. and USAG want Bela away from the girls as much as possible.
• Ivana Hong may be (gasp) injured. Apparently she has a knee injury, and as she was dismounting beam and subsequently grabbed her knee in pain. Nothing official if she has pulled out or anything like that, but I would say if she does have a major knee issue she is either going to brave it and compete sloppily (knowing Al Fong that would seem likely) or just withdraw. Either option would make her chances of even an being named an alternate slim to nill, but again no word yet if this rumor is totally legit and if Hong is indeed planning to bow out of the race.
• Sloan's knee is still giving her issues, Martha K. and Co. aren't interested in her any longer for the last spot.
• Johnson's put on a few pounds since Trials and Martha K. isn't happy. (Note: I find this one to be especially ludicrous, and if it is true it is probably just because Johnson is resting a tad bit in order to peak at the right time for the Games)
  
• A-Sac was seen icing her knee, though still appears to be fine.
  
• That is all the info I have to provide, and my final thought is this: If Peszek is looking shaky (and continues to look that way, though honestly I think she will get it together) and if Hong is injured, Mattie Larson HAS to be named as an alternate. Being an actual team member is still a bit of a stretch, but Larson is consistent, polished and it would be a tremendous experience for her to travel to Beijing with the team that would only benefit her future career as a potentially great gymnast for the United States.

Predictions for Events Gymnasts Will Compete in EF Competition

Shawn Johnson: UB, FX
Reasoning: Martha K. and Co. need to know that Johnson's 6.4 A-score UB routine can be competed consistently (she missed a combination on trials night two which lowered her A-score back down to a 6.2), especially when it comes down to whether the selection committee feels that Bieger's unspectacular but consistent UB work is enough for the last spot on the team. As for FX, Johnson getting her whip+triple twist around will be another crucial test for her.


Nastia Liukin: UB, FX
Reasoning: Improvement on vault and being a rock solid beamer all year make bars and floor the key areas for Liukin to focus on. Liukin's 7.7 A-score UB routine has been inconsistent all year and Liukin needs another chance to prove herself and get her confidence level a boost on that event prior to the Games. Liukin could potentially compete FX in team finals with her recent improvement of consistency there, and Martha K. and Co. will look to see if that consistency is still going strong.


Chellsie Memmel: VT, FX
Reasoning: Floor Exercise is a relative no-brainer, simply because Memmel is planning a double arabian upgrade which could get her A-score to a potential of 6.5. Memmel is the ideal candidate for a floor performer in team finals (besides Johnson and Sacramone) at the Olympics, even more so than Liukin and Peszek, and this upgrade could make for a high-scoring routine if done successfully. However, the other event in which she would compete is sketchy, but vault seemed like the best option because she is scheduled to bring back her DTY here and she has been superbly consistent on bars and beam throughout Nationals and Olympic Trials.


Alicia Sacramone: VT, FX
Reasoning: This is a pretty obvious decision, especially since Alicia has been said to be unveiling her Amanar vault and triple twist on floor here at the ranch. Alicia's calf issue is perhaps the most dangerous threat of an injury to the Fab Four (Shawn, Nast, Sac, and Chellsie) at this point in time, however knowing Alicia's immense experience and confidence she should be able to come to the Games armed with fire and determination to lead her team to a gold medal, and to bag some individual glory as well.


Samantha Peszek: BB, FX
Reasoning: Sam P.'s has made improvements on floor, and while not spectacular on that event at trials, she would be an ideal back-up on that event assuming Johnson, Sacramone, and Memmel are to compete that event in team finals. Peszek has the potential for a 6.5 A-score on that event if she brings back the 1.5 twist + double pike combo she did at Nationals. However, she may end up doing beam if she brings her double arabian dismount to the camp, as landing a DTY for her is not a problem and will still have the opportunity to do so at the AA competition.


Shayla Worley: UB, BB
Reasoning: This is an obvious choice, but if Martha K. were to slap some sense into Shayla's coach, Jeff Wood, than it would be very reasonable, and intelligent, for Worley to say farewell to the other events and just come to the camp competing bars and nothing else. USA has five excellent beam workers and that is more than enough depth the U.S. needs on that event, though if Worley really has an excellent routine there than she might as well show it. However, competing vault at trials=exceptionally poor decision making. And if she dare steps onto a floor exercise mat Martha K. should hide her music immediately, as Worley would be only building upon her gigantic kingdom of back injuries. If Worley comes to the camp with that 7.0 A-score routine on bars, I feel she is a worthy risk to take for the last spot, even if injuries are to come along for the ride.


Jana Bieger: UB, FX
Reasoning: Martha K.'s rumored tactics of having gymnasts compete on their weakest events are of no use to the ever consistent and predictable gymnastics of Bieger. Bars will really make the decision for her, and if she can outscore Johnson than her case for getting the last spot on the team would be very strong. However, as I have said Bieger's scoring potential doesn't really compare to that of Worley or Sloan on this event, and if Bieger and Johnson's scores are right in line with one another there really is no sense in taking Bieger in my opinion. As for floor exercise, Bieger has been shaky there but does have a 6.4 A-score there so she could be used on that event in an extreme emergency. But it is bars, once considered Jana's weakest event, that is either her ticket to compete in the Olympics, or to watch from the stands.


Bridget Sloan: UB, FX
Reasoning: Sloan's problems on both of these events at trials, and her two major events to possibly contribute to the team (obviously more so bars) look to be her key focus at the camp. However, a clean floor routine in the AA competition may persuade her and/or Martha K. for her to compete beam, as this is the most mental event of all and while not Sloan's strength, and will test her determination in a pressure-packed situation. Sloan's decision to compete FX at trials looked to be premature with her knee injury and all, and possibly detracted from her focus on the other events. Bridget was wise enough to know Martha K. likes her AAers and if Sloan were to be one she would have herself a ticket to Beijing, but perhaps not wise enough to know when to peak at the right time and what events she most needs to qualify for the Olympic team. The bottom line is that Sloan needs to nail her UB sets at the camp like her life depended on it to get on that team, and while her chances may not be overly great now they certainly haven't vanished.


Ivana Hong: VT, UB
Reasoning: Assuming Hong is ready to go, these are really the only events we would need her on in an emergency. Bars, though maybe not her strongest event, has improved and did score very well (15.55) on day two of trials. Vault is also very important, especially if Hong looks to hold off Mattie Larson for one of the alternate positions. Traveling alternate looks to be the best-case scenario for Ivana at this point, being the final team member would require stunning performances on uneven bars that we have yet to see.


Mattie Larson: VT/BB/FX
Reasoning: Martha K. may want Larson to compete on a weaker event of hers, beam, to see if she is mentally ready to be at least an alternate. Larson makes for an ideal back-up athlete on vault and floor and will look to outscore Hong and Memmel (possibly Peszek, though unlikely) on vault and Sloan, Peszek, and possibly a few others on floor to solidify her status as a possible alternate to the team.


Chelsea Davis: VT/UB
Reasoning: I have failed to recognize this young lady as a potential hopeful even for an alternate spot, though I do feel she deserves to be at the camp with her good performance at the trials. A rumored DTY upgrade and unspectacular yet consistent UB work could, if everything goes Davis' way, make her the 3rd alternate to the team. A long shot for sure, but if Davis delivers on those two events in particular there will certainly be more than a few important eyes looking at her, and it also doesn't hurt to have a former Karolyi star, Kim Zmeskal, as your coach.


Corrie Lothrop: VT/FX
Reasoning: This second event is of irrelevance to Lothrop's chances, but vault is probably one of the only reasons she is at the final camp and of course has said she might do an Amanar if its ready. However "if its ready" is not going to cut it for even an alternate position, let alone a spot on the team, and if Lothrop is really gunning to snatch Sam P.'s vault specialist spot this Amanar is going to have to be Cheng Fei good at the very least. Assuming Sam P. delivers another strong meet at the camp, she really has earned her spot and considering the fact that she is (at the very least) a back-up gymnast on any event, Martha K. and Co. will feel very safe using Peszek if any emergencies are to arise. One-event luxuries are not going to be considered for the team (unless if its bars, which Lothrop won't be contributing) unless of course they are a luxury that cannot be refused, and an "if its ready" Amanar simply won't qualify as one in the grand scheme of things. Lothrop is far too risky to send and can generate a far bigger consequence than it can a reward, though if this Amanar is proved to be reliable enough she could find herself as an alternate.



That is all.

China Team Selection

Above: Deng Linlin appears to have gotten the much-anticipated 6th spot on the Chinese Women's Olympic Gymnastics Team

It is widely rumored, though not confirmed, that the Chinese Women's Olympic Gymnastics Team is as follows:

1. Cheng Fei
2. Yang Yilin
3. Jiang Yuyuan
4. He Kexin
5. Li Shanshan
6. Deng Linlin

Alternates

1. Xiao Sha
2. He Ning
3. Sui Lu

Apparently, PPP's health was felt by the Chinese coaches to be too much of a liability to the team. With that aside, if you read my earlier blog post on who should get the last spot for China I am definitely a tad bit disappointed, and surprised, to see Deng Linlin get the last spot. Even though I have great liking for Deng's gymnastics, I think the 6th girl needed to have good UB work to really help be there for China in an emergency, and to my knowledge Deng's UB is only adequate. Yang's FX work is definitely stronger than Deng, though in a pinch they can use Deng on that event in team finals if deemed necessary. It looks like the last spot really came down to beam, and it appears that China wants to use Deng to do BB in team finals instead of Yang, which would then mean Yang wouldn't have to do AA in team finals. That's actually a smart move on China's part, however in that scenario I would've actually taken a gamble and taken Xiao Sha for the last spot. Deng is a solid competitor, much more so than Sha, but she only has a couple of world cup meets and a scarcely-attended Chinese Nationals to her experience. And we shouldn't forget that she even suffered falls on beam and floor at the prelims of the Chinese Nationals which kept her out of event finals in both cases, so she is by no means a total rock in competition. Interestingly enough, I originally predicted Deng Linlin to be on the Olympic team, but after Chinese Nats I thought it was a no-brainer to switch my prediction after Sui Lu won beam and floor at those championships. Another classic example of why sticking to your first instinct comes in handy. Anyway, now that this appears to be China's Olympic team, I will do a BB outlook post and updated posts of the team, AA, and FX outlooks (I don't think there is any need for a VT or UB updated outlook posts, so I won't bother with those).


Also, Ukaraine's Olympic team has been announced:

1. Dariya Zgoba
2. Irina Krasnyanska
3. Alina Kozich
4. Valentina Holenkova
5. Marina Proskurina
6. Anastasia Koval

Alternate: Olga Scherbatykh


Official Schedule for the Camp

Wednesday, July 16th-Gurlies arrive, possible training?
Thursday, July 17th-Gurlies train
Friday, July 18th- AA competition for all, scheduled to start around 12:30
Saturday, July 19th- EF competition, every athlete does two events which either the gymnast or Martha K. decides which gymnast is competing what, scheduled to start around 5:30. Team selection should be announced late that night.
Sunday, July 20th- Announced team (and presumably the alternates?) appear and are interviewed on the Today Show

That is all.

Mediterranean Gym Cup Analysis

As one of the final international meets prior to the Olympic Games, a tri-meet took place in Rome last week with Romania, Italy, and Brazil battling it out. Italy and Brazil should both play supporting roles throughout the competition in Beijing, not getting the limelight that will flock to USA and China, but will still play an important part of the competition especially when individual medals are concerned. Italy and Brazil's respective stars, Vanessa Ferrari and Jade Barbosa, provided us clues as to their chances of challenging for AA and individual event medals at the Games. Romania, complete with their leaders Sandra Izbasa and Steliana Nistor in hand, will look to steal away some of the medals and glory that is predicted to be reserved for China and USA. Here, we got a preview look at the condition of these three countries en route to the 2008 Olympic Games, less than a month away. Results here.




Romania


Sandra Izbasa- Upgrades including a DTY vault, and a 6.9 A-score on beam have looked to make Izbasa a potential dark horse in the Olympic AA final. However, one thing stands in the way of her being a serious AA threat: her UB double front dismount. This was hardly the first time she has fallen on this dismount, and it remains to be seen if she is going to change her dismount prior to the games and whether Romania will have to use her on UB in team finals, the latter of which will be decided upon the recovery of compatriot Cerasela Patrascu. Finished only .15 behind winner Vanessa Ferrari, but would've won if it weren't for the dreaded bars that have routinely been Izbasa's downfall (only a 5.5 A-score at this meet).


Steliana Nistor- Varying reports have gone from the fact that the reason Nistor only competed UB here was that she was simply resting her body to the fact that she has a back brace and is suffering from back issues. Her UB routine scored (for her) a lackluster score of 15.45, though one must keep in mind that the scores here were quite harsh for all of the gymnasts. Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, Jiang Yuyuan, and Yang Yilin all look to be formidable challengers for the AA podium, though with Ferrari looking shaky all year the European judges could save their high marks for Nistor at the Games. In that instance Nistor would very likely still be a top AA challenger assuming she is healthy and confident.


Romanian Team Outlook: With Patrascu's status still in the question, it remains to be seen if Patrascu is to be ready for the games exactly who she will replace. There is no obvious choice, though it might be Adriana Tamarjan as she is apparently still injured, the only one of the current Romanian Olympians who didn't compete at this meet. The other three members of the team: Andrea Acatrinei (beam specialist), Gabriela Dragoi (average on every event), and Andrea Grigore (decent VT/FX) are not especially strong assets to the team and are unlikely to be seen much in team finals. The best scenario for Romania is to have Patrascu replace Grigore with Tamarjan getting healthy and ready to compete in the games. Whether Romania will win bronze likely has much to do with Cerasela's recovery, and Romania will need her at peak form at the games to challenge Russia and its recently-increased depth. Romania unsurprisingly won the team competition here, but some weak scores on bars (even a few on beam and floor) are alarming for a team which doesn't want 2008 to be their first Olympic games since 1972 where Romania fails to bring home a team medal.


Italy


Vanessa Ferrari- Ferrari boasted the top uneven bars mark of this competition (15.5, 6.8 A), but was shaky elsewhere. This was arguably the best competition for Ferrari this year, but that isn't saying much for the former World and European AA champion who is continuing to battle tendonitis and other foot injuries that have plagued the Italian diva since last year. Ferrari competed a shaky DTY here (14.5), and had watered down beam and floor routines (15.35, 14.35). Ferrari was not credited for either her triple turn or her Memmel turn at this competition, and thus so far has a potential A-score of 6.0 on FX (she was given credit for only a 5.8 here). Upgrading to both her double-double and triple twist would get her A-score at a 6.4, but at this meet both her full-in and 2.5 twist were sloppily done and it appears unlikely she will get both tumbling passes back in time for Beijing. Ferrari has stated she won't be healthy by the Games' arrival, and it looks like Ferrari is more than a long shot for an AA medal of any color. However, Ferrari has proven herself to be an extremely tough competitor in the past, so one would be unwise to count her out just yet.


Carlotta Giovannini- Though not strong as an AAer, Giovannini's vaulting strengths are crucial for the success of the Italian team. They could become even more crucial if Giovannini comes to Beijing armed with her rumored Amanar and/or a Khorkina II vault (RO 1/2-on front tuck 1.5 off). Here, a solid DTY was all that was necessary (15.1), and was a good-enough result for the 2007 European vault champion who is coming off a sprained knee that kept her out of most of the Italian Nationals. Giovannini will also look to improve on her other events, floor exercise in particular, in order to bring Italy her maximum potential in August.


Italian Team Outlook: Italy's decision to allow Ferrari compete at the 2007 Worlds, as an AAer no less, could end up backfiring immensely on Ferrari and her team at the Olympics. Italy's strategy to have Ferrari compete watered-down routines (especially on BB and FX) this year have not helped speed up Ferrari's recovery, and it will be interesting to see if she has enough time and energy to get some consistent upgrades prior to Beijing. Italy is no doubt a long shot for a team medal (though barring a disaster they should make team finals), as is Vanessa Ferrari for individual medals. However, Italy's medal hopes may end up laying in an unexpected place. If Carlotta Giovannini's vault upgrades materialize, she should be a solid contender in vault finals. Though once again, the probability for that happening remains relatively low.


Brazil


Jade Barbosa- Brazil's star has looked anything but for the entirety of this year, and her shakiness continued at this meet with falls of beam and problems on bars. A 1.5 twist + front double-full upgrade on floor brings Barbosa's potential A-score on that event at a 6.3, though she was only credited for a 6.1 at this meet. Only competed a DTY (15.1) and will likely come to the Games without any experience of landing her Amanar vault in competition this year. Barbosa losing the Brazilian AA title to lesser-known Ana Claudia Silva has no doubt put a damper on her confidence, and whether she can get it back before Beijing remains to be seen. With Barbosa, the potential is there but her consistency is another story. At top form Barbosa could be in the AA medal mix, but her vault chances appear to be slim based on the fact that she has not landed her Amanar or Cheng vaults once this year.


Daiane dos Santos- Is pretty close to peak form on floor exercise, her signature event. However the judges didn't see it that way, clobbering her on both scores and downgrading three elements in the process, thus making her A-score a 6.1 instead of its proposed value of 6.4. Daiane is rumored to be putting in her piked double arabian back in as well, getting her A-score to a 6.5. However, doing that can cause some serious consequences. If her layout Arabian gets downgraded like it was here an additional piked double arabian wouldn't get credited because it would be considered a repetition of the same skill. Dos Santos has the potential to be a top challenger on floor exercise just like she was in Athens, but as this meet proved she also has the potential to be penalized harshly for silly errors that will keep her out of the game entirely.


Brazilian Team Outlook: While dos Santos' comeback is looking good, Khiulani Dias' absence from the team and Barbosa's unreliable confidence have put Brazil in a precarious position heading into the games. Making team finals is likely one of Brazil's top priorities, and can do that easily if they put together a strong effort in prelims. However, inconsistent performances from Brazil could put them in jeopardy of making team finals, as all of the teams that aren't USA, China, Romania, or Russia are all very close to one another when it comes to scoring potential. On the other hand, it can also be argued that Brazil missing team finals would be a blessing in disguise for this team that has little shot for a medal, which would then allow Jade Barbosa and Daiane dos Santos to be fully rested for the AA and apparatus finals.


Final Thoughts From This Competition

Though this was just a low key event, the current outlook for all three of these teams doesn't look overly impressive. Romania really does need Cerasela on the Olympic team, even if it is just for bars. A large part of Italy and Brazil's success in the Olympics depends on Ferrari and Barbosa, and both girls don't look near to their peak form at all. Hopefully Steliana just competing bars was merely precautionary, as she does have the potential to win some individual medals in August. Sandra Izbasa's UB dismount aside, this young lady looks to be in great shape and ready to help Romania win a team medal in Beijing. Who will rise above the pressure and become a shining star and who will falter and be whisked away in the darkness at the 2008 Olympics? We shall see.

Note: Gymnastics and Stuff and the Gymnut each have great commentary on this meet as well, and I advise you to check it out.

That is all.

And spot #6 goes to......... Part 2-China

It remains unknown when the Chinese will officially name their Olympic teams, for men and women, (though it is rumored to be within the next week) but since China is fully aware of the much-anticipated USA vs. China gymnastics showdown for the ages, they could end up waiting until after Martha K. announces the U.S. team so that China can plan their team accordingly. However, such tactics won't be at all necessary, as the U.S. team is pretty much set in stone as to who will go and who won't. Cheng Fei, Jiang Yuyuan, He Kexin, and Yang Yilin are locks for the Chinese team, and do to a surprising lack of depth on beam Li Shanshan should be named as the 5th girl regardless of how inconsistent she is. (she hit two relatively shaky, but clean, routines at the recent Barcelona World Cup which I think sealed the deal for her)Let's take a look at the line-ups of the Chinese women assuming Cheng, Yuyuan, Kexin, Yilin, and Shanshan are all on the Olympic team.


Vault

Prelims: Cheng, Yuyuan, Yilin, Kexin, Shanshan (?)

Finals: Cheng, Yuyuan, Yilin (Kexin if needed)

Outlook: The 5th vault girl is of little use to the Chinese team, as the lowest score in prelims is dropped and China making team finals is no worry at all. Shanshan competed a 1.5 yurchenko at the Shanghai Test Event (crashed completely) and has since been competing an FTY, and Pang Panpan has yet to show her DTY, which she hasn't competed since she missed the vault en route to giving the AA gold to Vanessa Ferrari at '06 Worlds. The 6th girl is not needed to fill any holes here.


Uneven Bars

Prelims: Kexin, Yilin, Yuyuan, ?, ?

Finals: Kexin, Yilin, Yuyuan, (Pang Panpan is capable of scoring higher than Yuyuan here)

Outlook: Kexin and Yilin are Olympic gold medal contenders on this event with 7.7 A-scores looking to crush any hope for American dominance in Olympic team finals. Jiang Yuyuan is a very solid 3rd bar worker, and while PPP can be used for that position there isn't a big difference between the general bars scores of the two gymnasts. However, if a bars specialist is to get injured what will China do? Shanshan is disgraceful to the Chinese on this apparatus, Fei doesn't even train bars, and if beam specialist Xiao Sha is to make the team she can contribute a decent, but unspectacular score here. This reason alone should guarantee both He Ning and PPP as alternate at bare minimum, but it remains to be seen whether China will take a potentially disastrous injury to a bars specialist in consideration when picking the last spot on the team.


Balance Beam

Prelims: Shanshan, Fei, Yilin, Yuyuan, ?

Finals: Shanshan, Fei, Yilin(?)

Outlook: Oddly enough, beam is China's weakest event and the one event where USA will look to make up what should be a solid deficit thanks to USA's weakness on UB. Li Shanshan is not as consistent a performer as one would like, but she is capable of getting a nice score even with a fall and given China's lack of BB depth the coaches have no choice but to send her. With Cheng Fei unlikely to get back her triple full dismount (which puts her A-score around 6.7) the big question remains on who will be the 3rd BB girl in team finals. The team should be satisfied enough to put Yang Yilin, a consistent but unspectacular performer on this apparatus. However, Xiao Sha and Sui Lu are capable of scoring much higher than Yang is, but than again both gymnasts are classic examples of "headcases," gymnasts with remarkable potential that cannot be consistent to save their lives.


Floor Exercise

Prelims: Fei, Yuyuan, Yilin, Shanshan, Kexin

Finals: Fei, Yuyuan, Yilin

Outlook: Floor Exercise is a relatively similar situation to the team as uneven bars is, because the team final line-up is quite strong but there is no back-up for the Chinese if one of these three girls is to go down with injury/illness/etc. prior to team finals. With Shanshan and Kexin adequate on this event at best, the 6th girl will need to have at least some skill on floor, which would help the Olympic case of someone like He Ning or Deng Linlin.


As of now, there appear to be six gymnasts with a possibility (some are remote however) to go to Beijing as the last gymnast named to the team. Let us take a look at what qualities each of these gymnasts brings to the table, and whether those qualities will interest the Chinese coaches when selecting the all-important Olympic team.


Xiao Sha

Pros: Xiao Sha is capable of a huge score on balance beam and hit beam during the pressure-packed team finals at last year's worlds after falling twice in prelims. Xiao is solid on the other three events, and can be used in team finals on VT, UB, or FX if an emergency is to occur.

Cons: Xiao is known for being extremely inconsistent on her money event, balance beam. One days she will hit like no other, while the next she will make a costly slip-up right before your eyes. With Yang Yilin having the potential for a 6.9 A-score, just .1 lower than Xiao's, it remains very questionable if the risk of taking Xiao will outweigh the reward.

Outlook: Yang Yilin's improvement on beam has likely meant game over for Xiao Sha's Olympic bid, but barring an administrative error she should still be kept as an alternate with a potentially strong beam score and decent routines on the other apparatus to be there for the Chinese to use if absolutely needed.


Sui Lu

Pros: Sui Lu won beam and floor at the Chinese Nationals, and was given extremely generous execution marks at those championships. A-scores of 7.1 on beam and 6.4 on floor will be hard to overlook when selecting the Olympic team.

Cons: Sui Lu's Olympic chances have melted considerably after disastrous performances at the Moscow World Cup and the French Nationals indicated nothing more than that Sui Lu cannot deal with the pressure of being in senior international meets. Amongst all the various rumors of the Chinese team selection, Sui Lu has been hardly mentioned as having any whisker of a possibility to become the 6th girl named to the team.

Outlook: I highly doubt after the Chinese Nationals that anyone in their right mind would think the Chinese would leave Sui Lu off the team. She seemed to have the entire package: high A-scores on events China needed her on, consistency, as well as good form and power to match. However, her performances at the two international assignments only showed the Chinese delegation all of the reasons they should not pick Sui Lu for the team, and those performances have not only been fatal to her Olympic bid but will also put stains on her reputation which has now become that of an unreliable competitor.


Pang PanPan

Pros: Pang PanPan is capable of higher UB scores than Jiang Yuyuan, the presumed lead-off bar worker for China in team finals. In addition to that, PPP is experienced and when healthy is capable of high-scoring work on beam and floor.

Cons: Unfortunately, PPP has been injured since helping the Chinese win team gold at the 2006 World Championships. These injuries likely cost her a chance to compete at the 2007 Worlds, and could very well do the same for her Olympic dream. It appears now that the only event PPP can really contribute is on uneven bars, and it can even be argued China doesn't need her there.

Outlook: PPP is generally scored favorably and her being able to outscore Yuyuan on UB should help her case out quite a bit. China is most in need of having UB back-up and PPP would be an ideal solution to this problem. However, injuries make it unlikely that she will return strong on VT, BB, and FX and be an ideal back-up gymnast on those apparatus. It will ultimately be a tough decision on China's part to risk a lack of BB or FX depth by sending a good UB gymnast to not only contribute a high mark to the team, but also an extra back-up bars girl (with PPP there would be four girls capable of high marks in team finals).


He Ning

Pros: He Ning is experienced and reliable and also a potential back-up gymnast to be used in team finals on UB, BB, or FX. He Ning was named to both the 2006 and 2007 World teams (the only athlete besides Cheng Fei to have competed on both world teams) while contributing far less than other teammates with actual routines performed in team finals. There have been various rumors that He Ning is indeed the 6th girl to be named to the team.

Cons: He Ning's capable scores on UB, BB, and FX, while solid, don't suggest the Chinese can't do without her in Beijing. Yang Yilin would be a much better option to compete BB in team finals, and in an emergency Ning isn't that much better on beam than Jiang Yuyuan, beam being Jiang's weakest event. If the Chinese delegation is indeed looking for another UB girl, PPP would be a somewhat better option just because of scoring potential. It is also worth noting that He Ning is the only serious contender for the team (besides Zhang Nan) that has not been sent to an international meet of any kind this year.

Outlook: He Ning's selection to the last two world teams means that she is politically favored, and strong performances from Chinese Nationals definitely helped her Olympic chances even if she has no international competitions to show for this year. He Ning is a solid back-up option on FX and UB especially, the events China is most in need of more depth. Though Ning originally seemed like a long shot, she provides a pretty strong case for herself to be named as the last girl to the team.


Deng Linlin

Pros: Deng is capable of high marks on vault, beam, and floor. A generally consistent competitor, she won both beam and floor at the Moscow World Cup which helps her case for having a good reputation with the international judges.

Cons: Deng's falls on beam and floor at the Chinese Nationals, which subsequently kept her out of event finals in both cases, definitely put a yield to Deng's Olympic chances, as did her mysterious pull-out of the French Nationals which she was scheduled to compete in. Yang Yilin's improvement on beam and floor makes her scores there equal or perhaps even higher than what Deng is capable of, and that reason, in addition to inexperience, look to make it unlikely Deng will be named as the 6th gymnast to the team.

Outlook: Though hardly a shoo-in for the last spot on the team, Deng's strengths on three apparatus make her ideal alternate material. A DTY vault and strong A-scores on beam and floor will be ideal to use if a substitution is needed, and while Deng lacks experience, she is a bit more consistent than Sui Lu and Xiao Sha and I personally think the Chinese would be idiotic to leave her off the team entirely.


Zhang Nan

Pros: Zhang Nan is the only athlete besides Cheng Fei with a legitimate chance at a second Olympic games. Her experience and prowess on beam is noteworthy, and won a bronze on beam at the Chinese Nationals ahead of Li Shanshan and Xiao Sha who suffered falls and finished behind Sui Lu, who looks to have little chance to make the team. Zhang has generally been scored favorably over the years by the judges, the most notable example being when she won Olympic AA bronze in Athens 2004 when Russian Anna Pavlova was felt by most to have put forth a superior effort in that meet.

Cons: Solid BB scores from Yang Yilin at recent meets (notably French Nationals AA final) provide little use for Zhang Nan to be named to the team. Li Shanshan and Xiao Sha are capable of higher marks than Zhang is, and the only reason Zhang would be named to the team would be for beam, which is likely far too little of a contribution than what China is looking for.

Outlook: The writing was on the wall when the coaches handed over the team captain duties that were formerly Zhang Nan's to Cheng Fei, and while Zhang Nan made an admirable comeback on beam at the Chinese Nationals, she simply brings too little to the table to be considered seriously for an Olympic birth.


Things To Be Considered When Naming This Team:

• As far as alternates and substitution for injured teammates is concerned, the delegation has 24 hours prior to the beginning of prelims to submit the team's final roster, which means NO SUBSTITUTION after that is allowed. This fact alone, if considered, should help He Ning or (especially) PPP's chances because Cheng Fei or Li Shanshan competing UB in team finals would be the laughing stock of the gymnastics world and someone like Xiao Sha or He Ning to compete there in TF would also open a big door for the United States team, which then would likely have a smaller UB deficit to China in that scenario.
  
• Xiao Sha seems to be incapable of hitting two clean beam sets in a row among qualifications and finals, whether it be a world cup meet or a national/world championship. So, if Xiao Sha is to get that 6th spot, if she hits in prelims than the Chinese should NOT use her in team finals, subbing in Yang Yilin to compete BB in TF instead. However, if she falls in prelims than China should select to her to compete BB in TF in a heartbeat, with past history making it a good indication she would hit and score highly.

• China's lack of depth on BB and FX s considerably less so than UB, which makes me think that the 6th girl should have at least an adequate, preferably very good, UB routine.

Let us take a look at the possible scenarios if one of the Chinese gymnasts is to get injured, assuming the team is Fei, Yuyuan, Kexin, Yilin, Shanshan, and Ning:

Cheng Fei
possible sub: Deng Linlin

VT: Yuyuan, Yilin, Kexin
UB: not affected
BB: Shanshan, Yilin, Linlin
FX: Yuyuan, Yilin, Linlin


Yang Yilin
possible subs: PPP/Linlin/Sha

VT: Fei, Yuyuan, Kexin
UB: Kexin, Yuyuan, Ning
BB: Shanshan, Fei, Linlin/Sha
FX: Fei, Yuyuan, Ning

He Kexin
possible subs: PPP

VT: Fei, Yuyuan, Yilin
UB: Yilin, Yuyuan, PPP
BB: not affected
FX: not affected


Jiang Yuyuan
possible subs: PPP

VT: Cheng, Yilin, Kexin
UB: Kexin, Yilin, Ning/PPP
BB: not affected
FX: Cheng, Yilin, Ning


Li Shanshan
possible subs: Linlin/Sha

VT/UB/FX: not affected
BB: Fei, Yilin, Linlin/Sha


He Ning

Not a first choice for being in team finals, but her good routines on bars and floor will likely make PPP the substitute if He Ning is to get injured, with Deng Linlin being a possibility as well.


Predicted Team

1. Cheng Fei
2. Yang Yilin
3. Jiang Yuyuan
4. He Kexin
5. Li Shanshan
6. He Ning

Alternates

1. Pang PanPan
2. Deng Linlin
3. Xiao Sha

China's possible decision to include Ning as the last girl at first would look like an unintelligent decision, but the more and more one analyzes He Ning's potential for the team she really would be the best pick for the last girl. Though unlikely to compete in team finals unless if someone is to get injured, Ning provides strong experience, consistency, leadership, and reliable work on uneven bars and floor exercise, which are the events China is most in need of back-up gymnasts. Ning would simply be an insurance policy to the team, but a good one at that. We shall see who gets the last spot for China, and I don't think I'm the only person who is putting their money down on He Ning to the get the final spot for China.


Next Post: Mediterranean Gym Cup Analysis

That is all.

And Spot #6 Goes To..............

At the conclusion of the women's U.S. Olympic Trials, it appeared that five girls: Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, Alicia Sacramone, Chellsie Memmel, and Samantha Peszek have all but made the team, thus leaving room for one more spot. Who is going to get it? Well, the five aforementioned names have us covered on really every event in prelims and finals, with the notable exception of a third bars girl to compete in team finals that is not Shawn Johnson. With the final camp set to take place in a few weeks, it appears that the last spot is between three girls: Jana Bieger, Bridget Sloan, and Shayla Worley. The sixth girl will ultimately be going for bars and bars alone, which means it is not likely that the 6th girl will compete anything besides bars even in prelims. (Sloan's DTY and possibly floor are the only exceptions I can think of, Worley is of no use on beam, nor is Bieger on floor) Everyone has suddenly gone to town thinking Jana will get the last spot after getting 3rd on bars at trials while Sloan and Worley had disastrous performances on that event on day two of trials. While those lackluster efforts couldn't have come at a much worse time, the selection camp will be the ultimate deciding factor for everyone's fate. Those decisions not only apply for the last spot on the team, but also for the three girls that are decided to be alternates if an injury is to happen to one of our top gymnasts. Below is my final analysis on the potential makeup of the team:


Jana Bieger

Pros: Jana is consistent and experienced as all get out. She has yet to fall on bars this year, and generally scores in the 15.5-15.6 range on this event internationally. Though scored harshly at nationals, the judges warmed up to Bieger at trials which points good signs toward her political favor with Martha K. Falls from Bridget Sloan and Shayla Worley at the trials have all of a sudden boosted Jana's Olympic chances considerably.

Cons: Jana's potential scores are lower than Sloan (who scored 15.95 at day 2 Nats) and Worley (capable in the 15.7 range). Jana was passed over for the world team entirely last year, despite the fact that Bridget Sloan had a lackluster day two and Samantha Peszek a disastrous day one. Shawn Johnson outscoring Bieger in day one of trials also doesn't point any strong signs that the team can't do without her in Beijing.

Outlook: Jana's bid for the 6th spot is looking strong, but she has by no means sealed the deal yet. I have mentioned before that Johnson competing AA in team finals could prove to be a disastrous decision with all the pressure involved, but Bieger's scores on this event are about even with Johnson's when they both hit, which means Bieger isn't such a huge plus to the team on bars after all. You would think being a former world AA silver medalist would help, but as 2007 proved past reputation will mean next to nothing for Martha K. However, if Jana finishes 3rd on bars at the camp behind Nastia and Chellsie and most importantly ahead of Shawn, Bridget, and Shayla, Martha K. and Co. have no choice but to take her.


Bridget Sloan


Pros: Outscoring Bieger and Johnson at nationals with scores ranging from 15.75-15.95 put Sloan firmly in the mix for the last spot on the team. Bridget has a .1 A-score advantage, in addition to overall better execution than Worley and Bieger (especially), flexed feet on her release moves notwithstanding. Sloan's performed very consistently at the Olympic Test Event in Beijing back in November and is generally a good competitor.

Cons: Sloan's meltdown on day two of the Olympic Trials could prove to be unforgivable in the selection committee's eyes regardless of her performances at the camp. Sloan's decision to compete floor at trials was likely an unwise one; she was shaky there and also on really the only event she is in it to make the squad, bars. Sloan's comparative lack of experience to Bieger and Worley will also hurt her in the grand scheme of things, as will the fact that her highest B-score at the Olympic Test Event in February was an 8.625 for a cleanly hit routine.

Outlook: Sloan has the potential to be a great asset for the U.S. team as a lead-off bar worker, but her regressing from nationals to trials is not a good sign for whether she can hit when needed at the Olympics. Had Sloan repeated her nats bars performances at the trials, I think she would have sewn up that 6th spot already. The committee must realize that Sloan has been very consistent on bars since she became a senior, and day two of trials was hopefully just a "bad night." If Sloan is to hit all of her bars sets at the camp and place 3rd with scores in the 15.8-15.9 range, than I would actually give the last spot to her.


Shayla Worley

Pros: Shayla competed in team finals at last year's worlds and finished with a score of 15.5+ even with a shaky dismount landing. Apart from her infamous severely cowboyed inconsistent OMG dismount, Shayla rarely misses a routine on this event. Just finishing her day two trials bar routine after a scary fall on her Hindorff release should also win her some extra brownie points.

Cons: Shayla's back issues are unlikely to get much better by the selection camp, and the USA team doesn't absolutely need her even at peak form with an inconsistent bars dismount and injuries galore coming for the ride.

Outlook: Shayla would be a very likely candidate for the last spot if she were healthy, but even if she has improved by the time the selection camp of hell rolls around her herniated disk issues could flare up at any time. Like I said earlier, Shayla can post a good score for the U.S. on UB, but that score is by no means worth risking an injury and/or fall in team finals over.


Potential Alternates


Ivana Hong- Ivana has decent work on all four apparatus, but even her personal best bars score of 15.55 on day two of trials won't cut it for a lead-off UB routine in the Olympics. Her DTY is solid enough, but not as good as Samantha Peszek. Looks to be very good material for an alternate at this point, but I think the real question is whether she will be picked as a traveling alternate or the non-traveling alternate.

Mattie Larson- Mattie's expressive and innovative choreography on floor exercise has won over gymnastics snobs and USAG judges alike. This will help her bid to be an alternate, but Larson's DTY scores have been almost dead-even (mid to high 14's) with Ivana Hong. Her strength on floor is good, but untested internationally and given the fact that the U.S. is stockpiled through the roof with good FX workers (Johnson, Sac, Chellsie, Sam P., Liukin, even Sloan if her knee gets better) we really don't need her there unless if a major emergency is to arise. However, her good consistency makes it pretty unlikely that she will be left off the team entirely.

Corrie Lothrop- No one knows this girl, but she has an Amanar in the works and could stir things up IF her Amanar is consistent and fully-rotated at the camp. Her DTY isn't fabulous, but it's no worse than that of Larson or Hong. However, risking an Amanar in team finals would be a HUGE gamble, especially if Lothrop were to fall and underotate the vault. Her Amanar would really have to be excellent in order for her to be named, as Sam P. really looks to have earned her spot at this point. Lothrop obviously has shown this vault at some point to Martha K. in the training camps, otherwise why else would she be named to the final camp ahead of Brittany Ranzy, whose vault scores were actually a tad higher than those of Sam P.'s (Lothrop's were lower). I find it incredibly hilarious that Simona Amanar is getting more name recognition eight years after her retirement than she did in her entire career for a vault she only did once, and sloppily. (though she probably could've done it a lot better with the new vaulting table)


Comparison:
Sloan vs. Worley vs. Bieger (UB)

A-scores

Bieger: 6.6

Sloan: 6.7

Worley: 6.7


Personal Best Scores (Nationally)

Bieger: 15.7

Sloan: 15.95

Worley: 15.7


Personal Best Scores (Internationally)

Bieger: 15.575

Sloan: 14.925

Worley: 15.575


Average Bars Scores (Nats/Trials)

Bieger: 15.5875

Sloan: 15.45

Worley: 14.8

Note: Johnson's average bars scores among Nats/Trials was 15.50625, with only one of her four routines being credited with her maximum 6.4 A-score. Her personal best of 15.7 at Nats/Trials is the same as Bieger's.


Consistency/Health

1.) Bieger

2.) Sloan

3.) Worley


Considering all of this criteria, Bieger is the obvious candidate for the last spot, especially if Martha K. chooses as she has in the past with experience/consistency favoring scoring potential. Worley is far too broken to be named for the last spot in my opinion, even though Martha K. should give Worley every opportunity to prove herself at the camp before making any final decisions. Shayla is far too big of a gamble to choose even if healthy, with an inconsistent dismount awaiting to warrant big deductions that USA cannot afford. Thus it comes to down to Bieger and Sloan, with Bieger being heavily favored at this point. However, against popular opinion I will still hand the last spot over to Bridget. Bieger's score of a 15.7 on day two of trials (which would probably go to about a 15.55 internationally) is pretty much the best she's capable of. That mark of 15.7 matched Shawn Johnson's highest mark among Nats/Trials as well, and the whole point of the 6th girl is that we don't bloody have to use Johnson in team finals on bars. So when it comes down to scores is Jana Bieger really needed? So far I would actually say no.


Let's go to Bridget Sloan. Though not a headcase, she is certainly not a Jana Bieger when it comes to reliability and experience and as Olympic Trials may have proven, competing in the Olympics may be too much, too soon. However, despite low B-scores at the Olympic Test Event, I've noticed much improvement (particularly in her handstands) which should make for a high score for a hit routine. Her main deduction, flexed feet on her releases, would be a maximum .3 deduction and after that there isn't a whole lot more you can take from her routine execution-wise. A 15.95 on day 2 nats was likely a tad inflated and probably close to the best she's capable of on that event, but proving she can outscore what Johnson or Bieger can bring to the table by a couple of tenths makes me think Sloan is still worth sending. Though I have said more times than I can remember that Johnson shouldn't be allowed to compete AA in Olympic Team Finals, she has only missed one routine (her Amanar at SCAM) throughout the entire year and she can certainly be relied upon to hit bars if absolutely needed. With Bieger and Johnson looking to have similar scoring potential, I feel Bridget Sloan is our last option. And if the Olympics are really too much too soon for her, than Johnson can compete UB in TF and getting a similar score to what we would have gotten had we just sent Bieger. Unfortunately, I cannot help but think when speculating over who will get the last spot that this last spot has Courtney Kupets' name written all over it. Experience, reliability, great execution and a potential A-score around 7.0 would have Martha K. and Co. bowing down to her in a second. But sadly there is no Kupets, with the final decision will come at the camp. There, Sloan will need to hit all of her bar routines like she did at Nationals to get that last spot. If that mission is accomplished, I would have to say the same for her lifelong dream of going to the Olympics.


The Extremely Confusing Race for the Alternates

With five spots looking to be sewn up and the last one coming down to Bieger/Sloan with Worley also having a fighting chance, the decision for the three alternate positions is far less clear. The aformentioned alternate contenders bring to the table the following:

Bieger/Sloan: Much needed 3rd UB girl, potentially FX as well
Hong: Decent on every event
Larson: Good VT/FX
Lothrop: Possible Amanar, but I doubt it will really be a good one
Worley: Possible 3rd UB girl
Davis: UB, though her chances are very slim.


Predicted Olympic Line-Up

VT

Prelims: Johnson, Sacramone, Peszek, Liukin, Memmel
Finals: Johnson, Sacramone, Peszek

UB

Prelims: Liukin, Memmel, Sloan/Bieger, Johnson, Peszek
Finals: Liukin, Memmel, Sloan/Bieger

BB

Prelims: Liukin, Johnson, Memmel, Sacramone, Peszek
Finals: Liukin, Johnson, Memmel

FX

Prelims: Johnson, Sacramone, Memmel, Peszek, Liukin
Finals: Johnson, Sacramone, Memmel


The basis of the alternate decisions should come down to mostly bars and vault, we are already more than covered on beam and floor if any emergencies are to arise. If Johnson, Sac, or Peszek is to get injured, USA would be most in need of a cover on vault and possibly floor. Larson fits that bill the best, but Hong also has the added strength of bars which is FINALLY materializing (15.55 on day two of trials). If Liukin or Memmel is to get injured, there would be a great need for another UB girl. It is likely that the other end of the Bieger/Sloan equation that doesn't make the team will be one of the two traveling alternates. A major decision that will be taken into account and is still largely unknown is how ready Shayla Worley will be in time for the camp and onward to Beijing. Improvement from hear on in could make her a traveling alternate, or in the best-case scenario the final team member. However, Martha K. and co. might be willing to not take a risk on another bar alternate if Worley is not healthy, especially with Johnson being right there if USA were to absolutely need her bars score in team finals. It so far looks like Bieger will get the last spot, Sloan and Larson the traveling alternates, and Hong the non-traveling alternate. However, a lot can change in a short period of time, and there are still many questions that will finally be answered at the U.S. Olympic Women's Gymnastics Team announcement on July 20th, 2008.


Next Post: Who gets the last spot for the Chinese women?

That is all.

U.S. Olympic Trials Analysis-Women Day One

Quick Note: I am going to be dancing at SAB (School of American Ballet in New York) for the next five weeks and I will be quite busy with classes and such. I do intend to continue blogging, but perhaps not as often as before. I do hope to get in at least two detailed posts in a week and I will do a post rounding up the men after day two of their Olympic Trials is concluded.


The women just competed at the first night of the U.S. Olympic Trials in Philadelphia, continuing in the second stage of the grueling marathon selection procedure to decide who gets to go to Beijing and who will be left aside. The two spots that are awarded after these Olympic Trials look to be unsurprisingly sewn up by Shawn Johnson and Nastia Liukin. With two other spots looking to go to Chellsie Memmel and Alicia Sacramone, the battle for the final two spots got much clearer after day one. Here's a look at the top competitors and how they performed on night one of the Olympic Trials:

Shawn Johnson- My supposed theory that the judges would low ball Shawn a tad bit to ensure a Nastia Liukin win were false; Shawn leads Nastia by a solid .5 after day one with both girls hitting four mostly clean routines (a poor UB dismount from Liukin notwithstanding). Shawn was solid as a rock on Friday, but deductions for incomplete twists could come on her Amanar, whip+triple twist (though improved from Nats), and even her front full+rudi combination. Deductions like these are costly in both the A and B panel scores in international competition. Having the third highest bars score was helped in the fact that she upgraded to a toe-on full on bars (6.4 A), but judges were generous as International Gymnast pointed out with her having 2-3 missed handstands in her bar routine.


Nastia Liukin- Nastia was great on day one with the exception of the dreaded, extremely cowboyed double front 1/2 dismount. A bars dismount which occurs numerous deductions for seperated legs, flexed feet, and low landings makes one wonder that Liukin's decision to change her UB dismount was not a wise one. However, another great floor routine placed Liukin 2nd of the night on that event, and Liukin could end up competing floor in team finals if her newfound consistency on that event continues. Balance beam is continuing to look good and her decision to nix the DTY in favor of one of the best 1.5 Yurchenkos around looks to be working. Her low dismount landing probably cost her .3-.5 (scores all around were inflated, not quite Nats inflated though), which would put her almost dead even with Johnson.


Alicia Sacramone- Missed connections and other downgrades have lowered Alicia's beam start score at Nats and here, where she only had a 6.5 A-score and her chances of competing beam in team finals or making Olympic beam finals look to be slim. Floor was solid, but is possibly saving her rumored triple twist for the camp and also stepped OOB with both feet BARELY, but it was kind of deserved with her OOB on day two of nationals not taken as a penalty. Alicia stuck her Rudi vault on her last event of the night, and with an Amanar Alicia does have an outside chance at Olympic vault gold.


Chellsie Memmel- Chellsie is continuing to prove she belongs on the team with the second highest mark on uneven bars, USA's weakest event, and a third place ranking on beam and finishing fifth on floor. Though Chellsie is a staggering 1.25 away from Liukin to get an automatic birth to the team, Chellsie looks to be fully ready to be contributing some big scores to USA come August. Chellsie's work on bars and beam is looking good, a discredited jam to handstand aside. However, relatively weaker work on vault (yurchenko 1.5) and floor (OOB, 6.1 A on day one) mean that the selection committee still needs a vault/floor girl on the team, thus improving Samantha Peszek's Olympic chances.


Samantha Peszek- Samantha's Olympic chances improved immensely on day one with strong work on all four apparatus. Placing 3rd on floor at Olympic Trials, even without her 1.5 twist-double pike combination which is unlikely to be reinstated into her routine, proves that at top form she can also be used on floor in team finals if USA needs her. An improved DTY vault (15.1, tied Ranzy for third on that event) and the 4th highest mark on beam do more to improve her Olympic chances, but Peszek will need to be this solid again in night two if she is to really solidify her spot on the team. USA needs a good vault/floor performer and Sam P. looks to fit that bill, having much more experience and seasoning than Mattie Larson. My only question is: where are the upgrades? A double-double dismount off UB, a double Arabian off BB, and an Amanar on vault have not been seen in competition to date, and it would be unwise to risk injury with further upgrading. Martha K.'s tactics of naming several athletes to the Trials that have very little shot of making the team in order to scare Sam P. into working harder look to be working; expect vault specialist Britney Ranzy to be named to the final camp even if she doesn't have the Amanar, which she has yet to show in training or competition and likely isn't training it.


Bridget Sloan- Bridget's unspectacular showing could've opened the door for Shayla Worley, but Bridget should be thankful that Shayla didn't step in and close it shut. USA needs to know with Johnson, Liukin, Sacramone, Memmel, and Peszek looking to be on the team, USA has all gaps filled besides a 3rd bar worker. Sloan had a couple issues on day one on that event but pulled in a respectable 15.6, which could go to as high as a 15.9 with a clean routine. Judges can hammer Bieger and Worley more so than Sloan on form, and having Shawn compete AA in team finals is a pressure-filled task that has backfired on the U.S. team twice before. I would still say Bridget is the last girl on the team, and despite her case for being an AA athlete USA looks to really only be using her on bars. Sloan's decision to nix her DTY from Trials entirely opened the door for Peszek to grab herself a ticket to Beijing.


Shayla Worley- Slightly lackluster efforts on bars and beam and failing to beat Bieger or Sloan on bars are looking to do the trick to compete Shayla off the Olympic team, the real question is whether Shayla and hang in there to be an alternate. Shayla (based on the quick hit commentary) seems to be a bit tentative, and with all of the injuries she's had she obviously has reason to be. The question remains whether Shayla has enough time to improve to peak form on bars and thus get the last spot on the team. So far, it doesn't look like it will happen but Worley would be wise to just focus on bars, and maybe beam, onward to the selection camp.


Jana Bieger- Jana was given higher scores here and her bars placed .05 ahead of Bridget and .25 ahead of Shayla. If she continues to have strong bars work on day two and at the camp, Martha K. would be wise to name Jana as an alternate in favor of Shayla. Jana is a consistent competitor who is experienced and would be an ideal substitute if something were to happen to any of our bars girls. Jana has no use contributing on floor, her other strong event, with shaky performances placing behind those of Johnson, Liukin, Sacramone, Larson, Peszek, and Memmel. From now until the selection camp Jana needs to be focused on improving uneven bars and nothing else; what was once proclaimed her weakest event looks to be her last hope for getting a ticket to Beijing.


Mattie Larson- Sam P.'s strong VT/FX scores from night one look to keep Mattie off the Olympic team, but I would still send her as a traveling alternate because of her good consistency and strong execution on those two events making her an ideal alternate. Mattie has expressed desire to go on to London 2012, and the experience of possibly going to Beijing as an alternate should help prepare her immensely when she goes for making the Olympic team again in 2012.


Ivana Hong- Even though Hong finished a solid 5th AA and had a good meet minus some low landing issues on floor, it would be a blessing for Ivana just to be named as an alternate. Sam P. has consistently outscored Ivana on vault, and has been outscored by Larson consistently on floor as well. Al and Armine have not been wise with what Ivana needs to be able to contribute to the team, and being an AA athlete is not going to do the trick. Though Ivana's consistency has improved, there is no gap she is needed to fill really anywhere.


There really isn't much of a chance for any of the girls who competed at trials to make the team apart from those that I mentioned above. I expect all of the aformentioned names plus Britney Ranzy to make the final camp, and Randy Stageberg or even Chelsea Davis might be named if they perform well in day two. Let us look at the holes USA is needed to fill assuming Johnson, Liukin, Sacramone, Memmel, and Peszek are on the team. The first three athletes that I mention in the prelims line-up are expected to be used in team finals.


Prelims (VT): Sacramone, Johnson, Peszek, Liukin, Memmel (?)

Prelims (UB): Liukin, Memmel, ?, Johnson, Peszek

Prelims (BB): Liukin, Johnson, Memmel, Sacramone, Peszek

Prelims (FX): Johnson, Sacramone, Liukin/Memmel/Peszek (all legitimate uses in team final)

So, if Memmel is to get her DTY back she should compete vault in prelims, but it would still help Bridget Sloan's chances if she competes a good DTY at the selection camp, thus making her a legitimate back-up in team finals on that event. With rivals Shayla Worley and Jana Bieger only competing 1.5 Yurchenkos, Sloan is not hurting her Olympic chances by not competing vault at trials. Using Johnson on bars would be a definite administrative error, which is why the 3rd ranked bar worker based on Nats/Oly Trials/Camp results is likely to get the last spot on the team. A strong showing on bars from Sloan on day two and she will be very hard to unseat for the last spot on the team.

Predicted Team:

1. Shawn Johnson
2. Nastia Liukin
3. Alicia Sacramone
4. Chellsie Memmel
5. Samantha Peszek
6. Bridget Sloan

Alternates:

1. Jana Bieger
2. Mattie Larson

3. Shayla Worley (non-traveling)


That is all.