Women's Podium Training Session-China and Romania

Whether it is to add a perspective and knowledge on things or to provide commentary if NBCOlympics doesn't work for you, I will be doing my own "quick hits" tonight on my blog for the podium training session#1, featuring medal contending teams China and Romania.

9:59 EST Gymnasts are marching out.

10:02 China is warming-up on beam, Romania on vault. The event order of the podium training session will be the same as the actual team prelims.

10:06 Yang Yilin had a fall on her front aerial+side aerial combo, hit that combo perfectly while Chinese were warming up. Otherwise a good set.

10:09 Deng Linlin, excellent beam set aside from a low dismount landing on her double pike.

10:11 Li Shanshan had an exceptional beam set, though did have a low chest and one step on her double pike. No Y-scale turn.

10:15 Cheng Fei went before Deng Linlin and had a very solid set as well, awkward landing on her 2.5 dismount, however. Jiang Yuyuan fell on her back tuck+sheep jump (fall looked savable) and was off alignment on her Ruflova. Odd how Yuyuan went last on this event, her weakest. Yilin just hit her front aerial+side aerial perfectly.

10:19 Nistor was very distraught after doing her vault (which NBC didn't show). Bela Karolyi is in the stands, talking to the media. China is done with beam.

10:22 First rotation is concluded.

10:24 Romania is moving to bars, China to floor. Not surprisingly, He Kexin is not doing floor and didn't do beam.

10:33 Deng Linlin was listed as "He Kexin." LOL Took a step on double arabian, underotated triple turn, and also underotated her 2.5 twist at the end of her combo pass.

10:37 Yang Yilin, could've gone OOB on her first pass (view was obstructed but it looked like she went out), triple twist was possibly short of rotation and had low landings on her combination pass and finishing double pike. This definitely was not her best routine here.

10:40 Jiang Yuyuan, very good tumbling and expression. Had a low double pike and an underotated triple turn but otherwise flawless.

10:42 Cheng Fei, has switched her routine around and put piked full-in for her second pass, whip+triple for her 3rd, and 2.5 twist to dismount. If I am not mistaken I believe that puts her routine at a 6.6 A-score, the same as Shawn Johnson. Really excellent set, chest was low on her double-double (as it normally is) and whip+triple full was a tad off but Cheng looks like she is in fine shape for these Olympic Games.

10:44 China put Li Shanshan last on floor, don't know why they're putting their weak links last in the lineup and whether they will do that come time preliminaries. Rotation 2 has concluded.

10:49 DTY from Deng Linlin with one step, did another one later that was almost identical. As expected, Shanshan is sitting this event out.

10:55 Showed parts of Nistor and Izbasa's beam routines and they looked good, minus a very dropped back (even more so than I remembered it being) on Nistor's "Nistor." Two good Amanars from Cheng Fei, remember she hasn't even tried the Amanar all year long. Yuyuan did another Amanar, but with a big step to the side and was possibly a smidget underotated.

11:02 Cheng Fei just landed on her knees on her Cheng vault attempt, first major mistake from her during this entire podium training session.

11:04 Cheng Fei did her Cheng again, much improved. Had one hop and piked down the last half twist of the vault, and a low chest on landing. Very solid vault though, definitely still the prime favorite for vault gold.

11:05 Gymnasts marching to final piece of apparatus, which for China is uneven bars.

11:09 Deng Linlin crashed her piked jaegar, and had several missed handstands. Great laidout full-twisting double back dismount.

11:12 He Kexin did some skills include her jaegar1/2+jaegar combo, and her 1.5 pirouette into her tucked full-in dismount. Step on the landing but looked excellent as always.

11:15 Full set from Deng Linlin, very low dismount. Hit the jaegar she missed earlier but broke form. Had several missed handstands. In the event that China would have to use Linlin to do UB in TF a door would come flinging open for the United States.

11:17 Yuyuan crashed her jaegar, otherwise a good set. Falls on beam and bars for Yuyuan in this podium training session are a bit unusual for this generally consistent gymnast.

11:20 Yang Yilin had a low landing on her dismount and failed to go over the bar one of her pirouettes, Yang too has looked a tad off her game the entire night.

11:23 Excellent set from He Kexin, small hop on landing and had a loss of swing on her shoot transition to the high bar.

11:24 Yuyuan made her jaegar afterwards without issue, but went over on a stalder1/2 on the low bar and had to let go of the bar and do it again. Yuyuan also had a step forward on her double layout dismount.

11:25 Saw Izbasa and the last two tumbling lines of her routine (1.5 twist+rudi and triple twist). Looked a tad sluggish, and triple twist was underotated and had some crossed legs as well.

11:30 He Kexin went back and did another bar routine. Did an even better routine complete with a stuck dismount. Almost overarched a low bar handstand, however, but this girl is so bloody consistent it will be a tall order for anyone to beat her in uneven bar finals.

11:33 This now concludes the women's podium training session for subdivision one. Most of the footage was on China, and here are my comments on each member of the team.

Cheng Fei: She is peaking at the right time, enough said. Excellent on her three apparatus; she is going to be tough to beat for floor and vault finals. Did indeed go for the 6.6 A-score on FX, and with Johnson playing with fire on some of her skills (whip+triple twist in particular) and Izbasa looking a bit shaky, Cheng could indeed be the one to beat on that apparatus. A fall on her first Cheng vault is a tad alarming, but she did her second one just fine so I don't think it is much of a cause for concern. Balance beam looked very solid as well and has wisely stuck with her 2.5 dismount.

Yang Yilin: Did not see her DTY, but looked hot and cold throughout the training. Had a fall on beam, several landing issues on floor and had a couple problems on uneven bars as well, especially with not making it over the bar on that one pirouette that I mentioned previously. Is probably just working out the kinks with a lot of these elements, as she is generally a very solid competitor under pressure.

Jiang Yuyuan: FX looked great, but was shaky elsewhere. Her Amanar vault may have been a tad short of rotation, and she did step sideways and over the line as well. Uneven bars she had two major errors on, her jaegar being one and her stalder1/2 on the low bar (which she did in a separate routine) being the other. Balance beam looked very confident and then all of a sudden was off the beam on her back tuck+sheep jump. Some very uncharacteristic errors in this session from Yuyuan, but like Fei and Yilin, Jiang Yuyuan generally does best under pressure.

He Kexin: Will not be doing BB and FX, which we knew all along. Did not see her DTY but UB looked fabulous as always.

Li Shanshan: Interesting how China put their weak link last on every apparatus, and for Shanshan that was bars and floor. Looked OK, not great, on those apparatus. Her balance beam, on the other hand, was stunning. Truly a master of that event, however her sheep jump form could've been better and the same can be said for her dismount landing. With that said, the rest of that routine was spot on and I think if she were to repeat that podium training session BB set she would have BB gold pretty much locked up.

Deng Linlin: China's decision to take Linlin primarily for beam looks to be paying off, Deng had a great routine with few wobbles in sight. Also hit two nice DTY's, and while her floor was decent I believe China will shy away from wanting to use her there in team finals, and the same can definitely be said for bars. Had some issues with uneven bars as I mentioned previously, but otherwise performed well.


Overall: Obviously China has no plans to peak in this prelims session, however what is interesting with China is that they are not dealing with any of the jet lag and time-change issues that the other teams have so what we saw tonight should be a good indication of what we're going to see in prelims. The team looked very solid, however Yilin and Yuyuan in particular had some issues here and there. I didn't notice any upgrades with the exception of Cheng Fei's floor routine. China is pretty set with all of their team final lineups in terms of being competitive with the USA and all of the other teams. While I would say this team will be tough to beat, I wouldn't say they are unbeatable.

That is all.

Olympic AA Final Outlook Part 2-UPDATED

Above: The 2004 Olympic AA podium for women's gymnastics: Zhang Nan (China)-Bronze, Svetlana Khorkina (Russia)-Silver, Carly Patterson (USA)-Gold. With all three gymnasts not returning to these Olympic Games, who will be on the podium this time around?

UPDATE: Check the bottom of the post for my explanation of my podium prediction


Note: Upon a reader's suggestion, I am changing my blog title to Polished Gymnastics 101, as to not create any confusion of my blog being about Polish gymnasts (yeah then I would have nothing to write about LOL). My site URL will remain the same, however.


I opened up this blog with a post on the women's Olympic AA final to take place at the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in Beijing, China on August 15th, 2008. Three months after my original post on the outlook of the top all-around women for these Olympic Games, the landscape of this competition now has a very different look. Interestingly enough, it appears that a USA vs. China showdown will not be exclusive to just the women's team final. Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, Jiang Yuyuan, and Yang Yilin look to be the top four contenders for this most prestigious title that they have trained their entire lives for. However, every gymnast is looking to capture their 15 minutes of fame on this night of nights. The anticipation is growing, the clock is ticking, and the drama is building. With just two weeks to go until the Olympics and everyone's final preparations for the biggest event of all falling into place, it is now time to crown the best gymnast in the world.


Note: The gymnasts' A-scores I have listed are of routines that have been credited successfully in competition. I do remark on any theoretical upgrades that either the gymnasts have said to be doing or have been rumored to be planning for the Games beside their current A-score total.



Shawn Johnson (USA)


Total A-score: (6.5 6.4 6.9 6.6) 26.4 (Note: Could be a 7.0 BB set if her full-turn is credited, according to the reports it was credited at the selection camp)

Pros: Shawn won both the U.S. Nationals and Olympic Trials with room to spare over what is predicted to be one of her top rivals in Beijing, Nastia Liukin. Upgrades to an Amanar on vault, a 6.4 A-score on uneven bars, and a 6.6 A-score on floor (believed to be the highest in the world at the moment) have not degraded her status as the favorite for Olympic AA gold in the least. Her consistency is admirable in the fact that she has only fallen once in a major competition this year, which was of course her Amanar vault at the Scam Cup.

Cons: International judges have been stingy all year long in international meets with execution deductions and downgrades on underotated skills, the latter of which has the potential to kill any hope for Shawn to win the AA. Questionable rotation on her Amanar vault and her whip+triple twist on floor, among other skills, could cost Shawn above a full point in start value, not to mention deductions for incomplete revolutions of the twists. USAG judges wouldn't have downgraded any of these major elements if their life depended on it, but the Olympic international judges are not likely to be even remotely lenient when it comes to these types of errors.

Outlook: I think Shawn's AA medal chances do not rely on any of the obvious things like mental toughness or being healthy, she has been all of that and more all year long and one shouldn't expect her to be any different in Beijing. However, Shawn's AA medal chances come down to far more technical details, that if not addressed now could have serious consequences on her medal chances at the games, and not just in the AA. However, it is definitely worth noting that despite USAG's inability to be harsh when necessary with these types of issues, Shawn and her coaches make for a very intelligent team and should be able to fix some of these potential problems in time for the arrival of the Games.


Jiang Yuyuan (China)

Total A-score: (6.5 7.3 6.5 6.3) 26.6

Pros: Jiang has an excellent Amanar on vault, and very formidable start values on bars and floor. Winning the AA title at the Chinese Nationals back in May should bode well for Jiang's confidence and political favor heading into the games. It also doesn't hurt that Jiang competed in the Beijing arena at the Olympic Test Event in November 2007, and won the AA gold there as well. Jiang gained valuable experience while competing at last year's worlds, yet won't have to deal with the same kind of pressure that is being thrown at Johnson and Liukin, who have been analyzed as Olympic AA gold possibilities by the unrelenting USA media for quite a bit longer than Jiang has back in China. Among all of the AA medal contenders, Jiang's A-score is the highest when it comes to successfully credited routines.

Cons: Jiang is especially weak on balance beam, boasting a comparatively weaker 6.5 A-score on that event and is generally wobbly and cautious on that piece of apparatus. Execution deductions await Jiang on UB (missed handstands, occasional dead hangs, bent arms, typical Chinese UB errors) and also on FX (sometimes uncontrolled landings and occasional OOBs). Not competing AA at last year's worlds could hurt Jiang in terms of being able to withstand the pressure of such a tough competition, and also her reputation standpoint from judges who tend to favor gymnasts who have been out on the scene longer.

Outlook: Jiang is a great three-event athlete, but as long as she gets past beam she should do very well in the AA. Being at home in China should lessen any political backstabbing from biased judges, though the way the scoring has been going this year Jiang's UB execution could take a significant blow with the deductions she tends to incur that I previously mentioned. A weakness on beam aside, Jiang is more than up to par with the rest of the gymnasts when it comes to consistency, difficulty, and execution and it would be most surprising to not see her as a top AA medal threat come August 15th, 2008.


Nastia Liukin (USA)

Total A-score: (5.5 7.7 6.7 6.2) 26.1 (Note: Has only been credited with a 6.7 on BB once, otherwise she gets a 6.6 because her front aerial to scale isn't held long enough)

Pros: Nastia has improved her FX and VT scores to go along with her world-class work on UB and BB. Victories at the American Cup and the Pacific Rim earlier this year have no doubt helped Liukin's statement to be a top Olympic AA contender, and second-place finishes at this year's Nats (which without an FX fall on night one might have won the competition) and Olympic Trials (while battling a case of the flu) have also proven that Liukin has the goods to go for gold in Beijing. Liukin is also known for her excellent execution marks for hit routines on events like vault and beam.

Cons: Liukin has several built-in deductions on UB (cowboyed/inconsistent double front 1/2 dismount, low tkatchev, off handstand on Ono 1.5 pirouette) and FX (crossed legs on twisting passes/cowboyed double front) that will most definitely be taken by the presumably strict international judging panel in August. Liukin has yet to put together a really flawless meet this year, with mistakes big and small always creeping in somewhere. Her double front 1/2 dismount off bars is of particular concern because of its generally low landings and poor form.

Outlook: Liukin's rumored upgrades like a DTY and a triple full on beam did not materialize, and in both cases it was likely a smart decision to favor execution and consistency over more difficulty. Liukin has looked excellent on beam all year and appears to be getting it together on vault and floor where she has had issues in the past. Ironically it is her strongest event, uneven bars, which could look to be her downfall. A weaker A-score on vault means that Liukin needs to take full advantage of strength on bars, and that sometimes doesn't materialize as the Olympic Trials, among other meets, showed us. While Liukin has yet to put everything together in an AA competition this year, she could just peak at the right time in Beijing and surprise all, or in a worse-case scenario even miss AA finals if Memmel and Johnson put strong performances and Liukin commits errors that will keep her out of the running entirely.


Yang Yilin (China)


Total A-score: (5.8 7.7 6.7 6.2) 26.4 (Note: Could have as high as a 6.9 BB set if she puts in all of her connections, but 6.7 is the highest she has received thus far)

Pros: Those that have not followed gymnastics in recent months should be in for a huge shocker at these Olympics, as the 6th place finisher from last year's worlds has a legitimate shot at the Olympic AA gold medal. Upgrades on every event that are for the most part consistent, including a DTY vault and a 7.7 A-score UB routine, put Yilin firmly in the AA mix. Also helping her case are the facts that Yang does not have any weak event and is generally a consistent and cool competitor under pressure.

Cons: Yang lost the Chinese National AA title to Yuyuan with a fall after her pak salto transition on the uenven bars. Yang doesn't quite the international name that Johnson and Liukin have and was scored a bit tightly at last year's worlds, which likely had a bit to do with her not having the international reputation that some of the other top contenders have. Also, competing at home will bring upon great pressure to this young lady who is arguably China's best hope for an AA gold medal.

Outlook: Though not perhaps as well-known as an AA threat as Johnson, Liukin, or Yuyuan, Yang Yilin could steal the show if she maintains her trademark consistency on this all important of nights. A strong DTY, outstanding bars, and good beam and floor make her arguably the best definition of an AA athlete competing in Beijing, but it remains to be seen whether she can avoid major error and hold off her top rivals in the process.


Other Potential Medalists


Steliana Nistor (Romania)

Total A-score: (5.8 7.3 6.9 6.1) 26.1

Pros: Nistor's consistency and lacking of a weak event make her a solid threat in the AA competition. With Vanessa Ferrari's never-ending battle with injuries, Nistor's chances could go up significantly if the European judges lobby to give her generous execution marks like they did at last year's worlds. Nistor's weakness, her form, has improved a tad bit over the last year. Also not to be forgotten is her experience of two world championship AA finals, one of which she medaled in.

Cons: Nistor was reportedly spotted with a back brace at the recent ITA vs. ROM vs. BRA meet, where she only competed bars. Nistor receives basic execution errors in the form and artistry department right off the bat and thus doesn't have the scoring potential of the presumed top four contenders mentioned above. Dealing with the pressure of being Romania's best hope for getting back an Olympic AA medal that they lost in 2004 could prove to be immense.

Outlook: Assuming that she is healthy and Stelina only competing bars at the recent ITA vs. ROM vs. BRA meet was merely precautionary, Nistor is Europe's best hope for an AA medal. Don't be surprised if Nistor gets generous marks from European judges who lobby to score her favorably a la 2007 World Championships, though it is no question that Nistor does not have the scoring potential that the top four gymnasts have. Nistor could easily sneak onto the AA medal podium if other gymnasts' mistakes present Steliana opportunities to do so, but if everyone is to hit (particularly the four mentioned above) Nistor's chances of medaling become much slimmer.


Jade Barbosa (Brazil)

Total A-score: (6.5 6.6 6.7 6.3) 26.1

Pros: Jade has some notable upgrades that she has debuted this year, notably a 1.5 twist+ immediate front double full on floor exercise. An improved A-score on bars (6.6) will further add to Jade's strong scoring potential on the other three events to make her a possible top challenger for the AA podium. It is also worth noting that Jade was in peak form at last year's Worlds more so than any event throughout the year. If Barbosa is to come to Beijing armed with the best gymnastics she has produced all year, she could prove to be an especially strong threat in this competition.

Cons: Jade has been remarkably inconsistent throughout the entirety of this year. Losing the Brazillian AA title to lesser-known gymnast Ana Claudia Silva will no doubt put yet another damper on Barbosa's often wavering confidence level. One of her main weapons, an Amanar vault, has yet to be landed this year and Barbosa has only attempted that vault once, and very unsuccessfully, since last year's Worlds. Balance beam has also given Jade issues all year long, with her acro series giving her particular trouble. Even Oleg Ostepanko, one of Brazil's top coaches, has stated that he would be surprised to see Barbosa challenge for medals at this summer's Olympics.

Outlook: With Barbosa the potential really is there, but her consistency is always a big question mark and her confidence has likely taken several shots this year, especially with losing the Brazillian AA title recently. Getting her Amanar vault consistent in time for the Olympics will be especially crucial for Barbosa, who will rely heavily on that one element to get herself up to the level of the top gymnasts contending for medals. Though Jade's inconsistency this year has made her look anything but a realistic AA medal prospect, we must remember that not many were expecting her to challenge for the podium last year and ended up surprising all by doing so.


Daria Joura (Australia)

Total A-score: (5.8 6.3 6.3 6.3) 24.7

Pros: Joura has exhibited much-improved confidence and consistency this year and Peggy Liddick's decision to send the stylish Dasha to world cup meets and the Pacific Rim championships should enable Joura to do much better at this year's Olympics than last year's Worlds where she had lackluster performances throughout the competition. Joura does not have a glaringly weak event and has very nice execution and artistry to possibly vie for a medal.

Cons: Not having an Amanar vault will put a significant damper on Joura's AA medal prospects and will give away .7 to the medal contenders that do. The only event where Joura is capable to potentially score one of the highest marks of the competition is on floor exercise, with lower start values on the other three ultimately meaning that Joura will likely need a significant error from a top contender or two to realistically wind up on the medals stand.

Outlook: Strong performances at the Pacific Rim and especially the Australian Nationals have signaled to the rest of the field that, while maybe not everyone's first choice for a medal, Dasha cannot be excluded from the list of very realistic AA medal threats come Beijing. Dasha's good execution and unique artistry have won over judges and fans alike, however it is without a doubt that Joura will be need to be at the absolute top of her game if she wishes to become the first Australian gymnast in history to win an Olympic medal. Joura appears to be really going after the B-scores to her bid of becoming an AA medalist, as her total A-score is far behind that of the other top contenders.


Vanessa Ferrari (Italy)


Total A-score: (5.8 6.8 6.7 6.3) 25.6 (Note: Has not been credited with those BB and FX A-scores (6.7/6.3) so far this year)

Pros: Ferrari is known for her high start values, good political favor, and incomparable mental toughness. Ferrari won the 2006 World AA title with a fall also won the 2007 European AA title. Ferrari followed that up those wins with a bronze in the AA at the 2007 Worlds while nursing a nagging foot injury. Another example of Ferrari's immense determination was displayed at the 2007 Worlds when Ferrari had not done a single full floor routine in training because of her injury and went on to hit three 15+ routines (under tough scoring as well) during the competition.

Cons: Ferrari will need all that mental toughness and more to win an AA medal after what has seemed like a never-ending battle with Tendonitis. (which if I am not mistaken was what developed to prior to last year's Worlds and has given her issues ever since) Even Ferrari has been pessimistic with her Olympic chances, confirming that she won't be at full speed and healthy when the Olympics arrive. Healthy or not, Ferrari's overall inconsistency, especially on bars and beam, has lost the Italian diva several individual titles in the past.

Outlook: Vanessa's need to wait until the last minute to add back in some of her big tricks she has yet to compete this year (notably her double-double and triple full on floor) could definitely backfire on Ferrari, who hasn't competed these elements in a full routine for nearly a year. If last year's Worlds are any indication, Vanessa will press on to vie for a medal, but time is running out. However, Ferrari's fierce competitive nature should mean that one shouldn't ever count her out, but as of now her AA medal chances do not look at all good.


Sandra Izbasa (Romania)


Total A-score: (5.8 5.8 6.9 6.5) 25.0 (Note: Potentially 25.2 if 6.7 A FX materializes)

Pros: Izbasa's upgrades on vault (DTY), beam (6.9 A) and floor (6.5, rumored 6.7 A) will help out her AA medal case greatly. A generally consistent gymnast, Izbasa has the experience of two world championships, one of which she won the bronze medal in the AA. Izbasa also won't have to deal with much of the pressure being put on compatriot Steliana Nistor's shoulders and could wind up being the surprise of the competition if everything goes according to plan.

Cons: Great work on three events comes with a potentially fatal price to Izbasa's AA medal chances, a weakness on the uneven bars. Romania's weakness on bars has been in full force for the last 15 years (Nistor being an exception), and Izbasa's meager A-score of 5.8 (she was only credited with a 5.5 at the recent Mediterranean Gym Cup) and consistently splatted double front dismount make her AA medal chances go down dramatically because of just one event.

Outlook: Izbasa is not expected by many to be touching an AA medal podium come August 15th, and certainly won't be doing so if her UB (dismount especially) continues to give her issues. However, if she can get her bars work at least somewhat together prior to the arrival of the Games while maintaining her strength on the other three apparatus, an AA medal will not be out of the question for Izbasa. Her chances would ultimately rise if top challengers with far more pressure falter and Izbasa's experience and consistency paves her a path to the podium.


The Darkhorses


Anna Pavlova (Russia)

Total A-score (6.5 5.7 6.8 5.9) 24.9 (Note: Amanar is questionable, 24.2 w/o it, has shown a triple full off beam in training, which looked fully rotated, and connecting back her front aerial+side somi+Kolesnikova series could bumb her total A-score up to as high as 25.3)

Pros: Anna was edged out of an AA medal in Athens which subsequently brought Pavlova to tears and prompted many observers to believe that she was unfairly placed behind Chinese gymnast Zhang Nan, who won the bronze medal. Anna is back for a 2nd Olympics and could be an outside threat for an AA with a possible Amanar vault, and a potential 7.2 A-score on beam (with triple twist and connecting her front aerial+ side aerial + Kolesnikova acro series). Pavlova will also carry with her great experience in Beijing and one shouldn't forget that the 2004 Athens Olympics has generally been said to be her best competition performance to date.

Cons: Pavlova has not competed her Amanar once since splatting at the European Championship vault event finals in April in both warm-up and competition. Low A-scores on floor (5.9) and bars (5.7, has ZERO connection bonus on this event) will make Pavlova have an extremely difficult time reaching the AA medals stand. Also combine that with the facts of her questionable Amanar vault and her fluctuating beam start value (has varied from 6.4 to 6.8, and could go as high as 7.2) make Pavlova a definite longshot for an AA medal of any color.

Outlook: Pavlova would need to be at the top of her game and more to vie for an AA medal, and since we have yet to see her reach her full potential on her two money events, vault and beam, it seems unlikely that we will see her in reach of an AA medal podium. However, a top 10 finish for Pavlova is very realistic, as are possible medal finishes with her team and individually on balance beam.


Ksenia Afanasyeva (Russia)

Total A-score: (5.8 6.2 6.7 6.0) 24.7

Pros: This relatively unknown Russian will likely end up being Russia's top hope for an AA medal. Armed with consistent work on all apparatus, Ksenia has won a total of three medals in world cup competition (2008 Tianjin and Moscow World Cups) and won the AA in both the preliminaries and finals of the recent Russia Cup. Ksenia's gymnastics generally has good execution and form.

Cons: Afanasyeva's lack of experience will definitely not help her quest for finishing on the AA medal podium, nor will her comparatively lower A-scores on bars (6.2) and floor (6.0). Afanasyeva being a relative unknown won't do well with her AA medal status either, with judges known to favor gymnasts who have won major international meets in the AA, something Afanasyeva has yet to do.

Outlook: Afanasyeva is without a doubt a relative long shot for finishing on the AA podium, however her consistency, good execution, and good strength across all apparatus should provide her a strong case for a top 10 finish if in peak form for the games. Though surprises have happened in the past in this event with top contenders faltering, Afanasyeva would need a stockpile of errors from the aforementioned contenders to finish the night with a medal around her neck.


Elizabeth Tweddle (GBR)


Total A-score: (5.5 7.6 6.2 6.4) 25.7 (Note: Could go to 25.9 with 7.8 A-score UB routine she has apparently showed in training sessions at the British Nationals)

Pros: Elizabeth Tweddle, Great Britain's most decorated gymnast in history, qualified in 4th place to the 2007 Worlds AA final ahead of eventual co-bronze medalists Jade Barbosa and Vanessa Ferrari. Tweddle's work on the uneven bars and floor exercise is Olympic medal worthy on both pieces of apparatus. Tweddle is also the only contender besides Anna Pavlova who is competing in her second Olympics.

Cons: Any hopes of an AA medal at the last two world championships were dashed for Tweddle at the last two world championships with falls on bars (2006) and beam (2007). Tweddle's relatively low A-scores on vault (5.5) and beam (6.2) do not bode well for her AA medal chances. Beth has always seemed to be cursed with injuries or lackluster performances at big meets, and with that said is coming to Beijing off an injured ankle that kept her out of the British Nationals.

Outlook: Tweddle's AA finishes at the last two world championships, 8th in 2006 and 11th in 2007, don't suggest this experienced gymnast to be capable of contending for an AA medal. However, upgraded start values on bars (7.6, reports have even said she is training a bar routine with a 7.8 A-score) and on floor (6.4) are added bonuses to Tweddle's AA chances and could result in a medal if Tweddle has the night of her life and others falter. Still, the likelihood of Beth medaling in this event is low and will have better chances of medaling in the uneven bars and floor exercise finals.


The Big Question Mark


Chellsie Memmel (USA)

Total A-score: (5.8 7.0 6.9 6.2) 25.9 (Note: Could wind up as high as 26.4 (though I'd say 26.1/26.2 is more realistic), if her double arabian and split jump 1.5 are credited on floor, allowing for a 6.5 A-score there, and if she gets her UB A-score up to 7.2 like she has said she will)

Pros: Chellsie's upgrades on vault (DTY), uneven bars (potential for a 7.2 A-score), and floor (double arabian-6.5 A), mean that Shawn Johnson and Nastia Liukin's once locked up positions in the AA final have suddenly become anything but. Chellsie's mental toughness is admired by fans and most importantly, the international judges, who have always scored Chellsie favorably in world championships despite shaky form and artistry. Chellsie's consistency throughout the Nationals/Olympic Trials/Karolyi Selection Camp meet was admirable, especially when you consider the fact that throughout the entire process she didn't miss one routine.

Cons: Chellsie's DTY is still a big question mark, and the 14.65 at the selection camp meet was lower than all of the scores handed out for 1.5 Yurchenkos. Her improvement on that event between now and Beijing is critical for Memmel's AA chances, with everything boiling down to if Martha K. wants to let Bridget Sloan and Samantha Peszek compete their comparatively better DTY's over Chellsie. A decision like that would ultimately mean Chellsie wouldn't do vault in prelims and her AA bid would be over before the competition were to even start. Chellsie's recent "whiplash" on floor at the selection camp meet will also mean that Olympic prelims will be the first competition where she will add back in her double arabian and compete it in her full routine.

Outlook: Shawn's questionable Amanar rotation and Nastia's inconsistent uneven bars could ultimately pave the way for Chellsie to not only make AA finals, but to even win a medal. However, Chellsie will need to improve her DTY vault fast if she is to truly solidify her position to compete all four events in prelims. As I see it, Memmel's AA bid could go either way. Her chances could realistically be washed away before she even competes her first routine of the competition, or Memmel's AA bid might ultimately culminate with a medal. Knowing Chellsie's immense toughness, I believe the latter scenario will be more likely to take place.

Other Gymnasts Looking for a Top 10-Top 15 Finish

Rebecca Downie (GBR)
Hong Su Jong (PRK)
Alina Kozich (Ukaraine)
Deng Linlin (China-If for some reason Yuyuan or Yilin wouldn't qualify or wouldn't be able to compete)
Pauline Morel (France)

Lia Parolari (Italy)
Marine Petit (France)
Ana Claudia Silva (Brazil)
Koko Tsurumi (Japan)

Now, while I know that sticking with your first instinct is always intelligent reasoning I learned myself when switching Deng Linlin, my original prediction for the Chinese team, with Sui Lu, when it now appears as though Deng Linlin is on the Olympic team and Sui is not. However, I will make one change to my original podium prediction (Liukin/Ferrari/Johnson)

Polish 101 Olympic AA Predicted Podium

Gold: Nastia Liukin (USA)

Silver: Yang Yilin (China)

Bronze: Shawn Johnson (USA)

4th: Jiang Yuyuan (China)-Weakness on beam could keep her out of the top 3, as can a lower B-score on bars.

5th: Steliana Nistor (Romania)-The typical consistent Romanian who is solid on every event, but sluggish form and artistry and little mistakes here and there look to keep her out of the medals.

6th: Vanessa Ferrari (Italy)-Is an incredible fighter, Giulyx14 reports of upgrades on UB and FX if she puts her double-double back in. Just not in the shape to vie for a medal, but don't count her out yet.

7th: Jade Barbosa (Brazil)-Inconsistent as all get out but peaked at last year's Worlds and could do the very same in Beijing. Has all the goods to be a top contender, but her mental game is her downfall and something she has to get together for the biggest meet of her life.

8th: Daria Joura (Australia)- Consistent gymnast with good execution who looks to be peaking at the right time, but that lower A-score is going to kill her.

9th: Sandra Izbasa (Romania)- UB is a nightmare for her, but solid work on the other three should definitely keep Izbasa in the top 10.

10th: Hong Su Jong (PRK): We haven't seen her all year, and was quite lackluster at the Olympic Test Event in November 2007, her last major comp to date. However, North Korea is known for busting out all of the big tricks at the biggest competitions; they NEVER play it safe. So one should expect some upgrades (likely on UB where she is a possible contender an EF birth on) from Su Jong provided that she is healthy. Not seeing Su Jong compete all year does not bode well for her consistency at the Games, but she could be the ultimate darkhorse threat if she is in peak form. That, or she won't factor in at all.

Update: Reasoning for my podium prediction

Many of you are likely dumbfounded by my prediction to keep Nastia Liukin as the Olympic AA gold winner. Shawn obviously seems to be the more likely pick of her consistency, difficulty, and execution. While Liukin is comparatively less consistent than Johnson, I think she is going to get it together one of these days and it could very well be the day of the Olympic AA final. The pressure on Johnson will be far more immense than that of Liukin, as Johnson's wins at Nationals, Olympic Trials, and the Karolyi camp have looked to downplay a Johnson vs. Liukin showdown that the media was making a big deal out of in the past.

As for Shawn's Amanar, the code states that the feet are the do or die factor when it comes to crediting the full rotation of the twists, and Shawn's feet have been short of the complete 2.5 twists throughout Nationals and Olympic Trials. Granted, she isn't that short of getting the full rotation on vault, but the judges at nationals and trials were USAG judges and would not have devalued the vault if their life depended on it. There have even been reports that judges were pressured to give certain gymnasts (Shawn and Nastia in particular) high marks for certain routines and would be reprimanded if they failed to comply. I don't necessarily know if that is true, but USAG judges are known to be extremely generous with top gymnasts' scores in domestic meets. So the fact that one can just say Shawn's Amanar (and whip+triple full for that matter, though at Trials it was much improved from Nationals) will get credited at the Olympics because it got credited at Nationals and Olympic Trials is not a reliable statement. The reason I am still skeptical for Shawn to win is because she is playing fire with a lot more elements (A-score wise) than Nastia is, though with that said Nastia's UB routine is a routine many will be nervous when watching because of its many potential problems.

As for Jiang Yuyuan's Amanar, TCO left a comment and made a good point that Jiang's crossed legs will be reason for deduction, and also the fact that to my knowledge Jiang has only competed this vault twice. (Johnson has done it successfully five times, fully-rotated or not). The video is too low quality, however, for me to determine whether she makes it all the way around (I am not the biggest expert on Amanar landings, as you probably have already figured out LOL). However, from what I can tell Yuyuan's looks clean, but I won't go to town saying it will be fully-rotated in the Olympics or anything like that.

All of these potential downgrades and inconsistency could pave the way for Yang Yilin, who looks to be pretty consistent while not gambling with the credit on a lot of her skills. However, I will still predict Nastia Liukin to win. It may not seem all that logical, but I am going to trust my first instinct. And we all should know by now how unpredictable the Olympics can be.

Next Post: Olympic BB Final Outlook and Updated FX Outlook

That is all.

China Team Selection

Above: Deng Linlin appears to have gotten the much-anticipated 6th spot on the Chinese Women's Olympic Gymnastics Team

It is widely rumored, though not confirmed, that the Chinese Women's Olympic Gymnastics Team is as follows:

1. Cheng Fei
2. Yang Yilin
3. Jiang Yuyuan
4. He Kexin
5. Li Shanshan
6. Deng Linlin

Alternates

1. Xiao Sha
2. He Ning
3. Sui Lu

Apparently, PPP's health was felt by the Chinese coaches to be too much of a liability to the team. With that aside, if you read my earlier blog post on who should get the last spot for China I am definitely a tad bit disappointed, and surprised, to see Deng Linlin get the last spot. Even though I have great liking for Deng's gymnastics, I think the 6th girl needed to have good UB work to really help be there for China in an emergency, and to my knowledge Deng's UB is only adequate. Yang's FX work is definitely stronger than Deng, though in a pinch they can use Deng on that event in team finals if deemed necessary. It looks like the last spot really came down to beam, and it appears that China wants to use Deng to do BB in team finals instead of Yang, which would then mean Yang wouldn't have to do AA in team finals. That's actually a smart move on China's part, however in that scenario I would've actually taken a gamble and taken Xiao Sha for the last spot. Deng is a solid competitor, much more so than Sha, but she only has a couple of world cup meets and a scarcely-attended Chinese Nationals to her experience. And we shouldn't forget that she even suffered falls on beam and floor at the prelims of the Chinese Nationals which kept her out of event finals in both cases, so she is by no means a total rock in competition. Interestingly enough, I originally predicted Deng Linlin to be on the Olympic team, but after Chinese Nats I thought it was a no-brainer to switch my prediction after Sui Lu won beam and floor at those championships. Another classic example of why sticking to your first instinct comes in handy. Anyway, now that this appears to be China's Olympic team, I will do a BB outlook post and updated posts of the team, AA, and FX outlooks (I don't think there is any need for a VT or UB updated outlook posts, so I won't bother with those).


Also, Ukaraine's Olympic team has been announced:

1. Dariya Zgoba
2. Irina Krasnyanska
3. Alina Kozich
4. Valentina Holenkova
5. Marina Proskurina
6. Anastasia Koval

Alternate: Olga Scherbatykh


Official Schedule for the Camp

Wednesday, July 16th-Gurlies arrive, possible training?
Thursday, July 17th-Gurlies train
Friday, July 18th- AA competition for all, scheduled to start around 12:30
Saturday, July 19th- EF competition, every athlete does two events which either the gymnast or Martha K. decides which gymnast is competing what, scheduled to start around 5:30. Team selection should be announced late that night.
Sunday, July 20th- Announced team (and presumably the alternates?) appear and are interviewed on the Today Show

That is all.

And spot #6 goes to......... Part 2-China

It remains unknown when the Chinese will officially name their Olympic teams, for men and women, (though it is rumored to be within the next week) but since China is fully aware of the much-anticipated USA vs. China gymnastics showdown for the ages, they could end up waiting until after Martha K. announces the U.S. team so that China can plan their team accordingly. However, such tactics won't be at all necessary, as the U.S. team is pretty much set in stone as to who will go and who won't. Cheng Fei, Jiang Yuyuan, He Kexin, and Yang Yilin are locks for the Chinese team, and do to a surprising lack of depth on beam Li Shanshan should be named as the 5th girl regardless of how inconsistent she is. (she hit two relatively shaky, but clean, routines at the recent Barcelona World Cup which I think sealed the deal for her)Let's take a look at the line-ups of the Chinese women assuming Cheng, Yuyuan, Kexin, Yilin, and Shanshan are all on the Olympic team.


Vault

Prelims: Cheng, Yuyuan, Yilin, Kexin, Shanshan (?)

Finals: Cheng, Yuyuan, Yilin (Kexin if needed)

Outlook: The 5th vault girl is of little use to the Chinese team, as the lowest score in prelims is dropped and China making team finals is no worry at all. Shanshan competed a 1.5 yurchenko at the Shanghai Test Event (crashed completely) and has since been competing an FTY, and Pang Panpan has yet to show her DTY, which she hasn't competed since she missed the vault en route to giving the AA gold to Vanessa Ferrari at '06 Worlds. The 6th girl is not needed to fill any holes here.


Uneven Bars

Prelims: Kexin, Yilin, Yuyuan, ?, ?

Finals: Kexin, Yilin, Yuyuan, (Pang Panpan is capable of scoring higher than Yuyuan here)

Outlook: Kexin and Yilin are Olympic gold medal contenders on this event with 7.7 A-scores looking to crush any hope for American dominance in Olympic team finals. Jiang Yuyuan is a very solid 3rd bar worker, and while PPP can be used for that position there isn't a big difference between the general bars scores of the two gymnasts. However, if a bars specialist is to get injured what will China do? Shanshan is disgraceful to the Chinese on this apparatus, Fei doesn't even train bars, and if beam specialist Xiao Sha is to make the team she can contribute a decent, but unspectacular score here. This reason alone should guarantee both He Ning and PPP as alternate at bare minimum, but it remains to be seen whether China will take a potentially disastrous injury to a bars specialist in consideration when picking the last spot on the team.


Balance Beam

Prelims: Shanshan, Fei, Yilin, Yuyuan, ?

Finals: Shanshan, Fei, Yilin(?)

Outlook: Oddly enough, beam is China's weakest event and the one event where USA will look to make up what should be a solid deficit thanks to USA's weakness on UB. Li Shanshan is not as consistent a performer as one would like, but she is capable of getting a nice score even with a fall and given China's lack of BB depth the coaches have no choice but to send her. With Cheng Fei unlikely to get back her triple full dismount (which puts her A-score around 6.7) the big question remains on who will be the 3rd BB girl in team finals. The team should be satisfied enough to put Yang Yilin, a consistent but unspectacular performer on this apparatus. However, Xiao Sha and Sui Lu are capable of scoring much higher than Yang is, but than again both gymnasts are classic examples of "headcases," gymnasts with remarkable potential that cannot be consistent to save their lives.


Floor Exercise

Prelims: Fei, Yuyuan, Yilin, Shanshan, Kexin

Finals: Fei, Yuyuan, Yilin

Outlook: Floor Exercise is a relatively similar situation to the team as uneven bars is, because the team final line-up is quite strong but there is no back-up for the Chinese if one of these three girls is to go down with injury/illness/etc. prior to team finals. With Shanshan and Kexin adequate on this event at best, the 6th girl will need to have at least some skill on floor, which would help the Olympic case of someone like He Ning or Deng Linlin.


As of now, there appear to be six gymnasts with a possibility (some are remote however) to go to Beijing as the last gymnast named to the team. Let us take a look at what qualities each of these gymnasts brings to the table, and whether those qualities will interest the Chinese coaches when selecting the all-important Olympic team.


Xiao Sha

Pros: Xiao Sha is capable of a huge score on balance beam and hit beam during the pressure-packed team finals at last year's worlds after falling twice in prelims. Xiao is solid on the other three events, and can be used in team finals on VT, UB, or FX if an emergency is to occur.

Cons: Xiao is known for being extremely inconsistent on her money event, balance beam. One days she will hit like no other, while the next she will make a costly slip-up right before your eyes. With Yang Yilin having the potential for a 6.9 A-score, just .1 lower than Xiao's, it remains very questionable if the risk of taking Xiao will outweigh the reward.

Outlook: Yang Yilin's improvement on beam has likely meant game over for Xiao Sha's Olympic bid, but barring an administrative error she should still be kept as an alternate with a potentially strong beam score and decent routines on the other apparatus to be there for the Chinese to use if absolutely needed.


Sui Lu

Pros: Sui Lu won beam and floor at the Chinese Nationals, and was given extremely generous execution marks at those championships. A-scores of 7.1 on beam and 6.4 on floor will be hard to overlook when selecting the Olympic team.

Cons: Sui Lu's Olympic chances have melted considerably after disastrous performances at the Moscow World Cup and the French Nationals indicated nothing more than that Sui Lu cannot deal with the pressure of being in senior international meets. Amongst all the various rumors of the Chinese team selection, Sui Lu has been hardly mentioned as having any whisker of a possibility to become the 6th girl named to the team.

Outlook: I highly doubt after the Chinese Nationals that anyone in their right mind would think the Chinese would leave Sui Lu off the team. She seemed to have the entire package: high A-scores on events China needed her on, consistency, as well as good form and power to match. However, her performances at the two international assignments only showed the Chinese delegation all of the reasons they should not pick Sui Lu for the team, and those performances have not only been fatal to her Olympic bid but will also put stains on her reputation which has now become that of an unreliable competitor.


Pang PanPan

Pros: Pang PanPan is capable of higher UB scores than Jiang Yuyuan, the presumed lead-off bar worker for China in team finals. In addition to that, PPP is experienced and when healthy is capable of high-scoring work on beam and floor.

Cons: Unfortunately, PPP has been injured since helping the Chinese win team gold at the 2006 World Championships. These injuries likely cost her a chance to compete at the 2007 Worlds, and could very well do the same for her Olympic dream. It appears now that the only event PPP can really contribute is on uneven bars, and it can even be argued China doesn't need her there.

Outlook: PPP is generally scored favorably and her being able to outscore Yuyuan on UB should help her case out quite a bit. China is most in need of having UB back-up and PPP would be an ideal solution to this problem. However, injuries make it unlikely that she will return strong on VT, BB, and FX and be an ideal back-up gymnast on those apparatus. It will ultimately be a tough decision on China's part to risk a lack of BB or FX depth by sending a good UB gymnast to not only contribute a high mark to the team, but also an extra back-up bars girl (with PPP there would be four girls capable of high marks in team finals).


He Ning

Pros: He Ning is experienced and reliable and also a potential back-up gymnast to be used in team finals on UB, BB, or FX. He Ning was named to both the 2006 and 2007 World teams (the only athlete besides Cheng Fei to have competed on both world teams) while contributing far less than other teammates with actual routines performed in team finals. There have been various rumors that He Ning is indeed the 6th girl to be named to the team.

Cons: He Ning's capable scores on UB, BB, and FX, while solid, don't suggest the Chinese can't do without her in Beijing. Yang Yilin would be a much better option to compete BB in team finals, and in an emergency Ning isn't that much better on beam than Jiang Yuyuan, beam being Jiang's weakest event. If the Chinese delegation is indeed looking for another UB girl, PPP would be a somewhat better option just because of scoring potential. It is also worth noting that He Ning is the only serious contender for the team (besides Zhang Nan) that has not been sent to an international meet of any kind this year.

Outlook: He Ning's selection to the last two world teams means that she is politically favored, and strong performances from Chinese Nationals definitely helped her Olympic chances even if she has no international competitions to show for this year. He Ning is a solid back-up option on FX and UB especially, the events China is most in need of more depth. Though Ning originally seemed like a long shot, she provides a pretty strong case for herself to be named as the last girl to the team.


Deng Linlin

Pros: Deng is capable of high marks on vault, beam, and floor. A generally consistent competitor, she won both beam and floor at the Moscow World Cup which helps her case for having a good reputation with the international judges.

Cons: Deng's falls on beam and floor at the Chinese Nationals, which subsequently kept her out of event finals in both cases, definitely put a yield to Deng's Olympic chances, as did her mysterious pull-out of the French Nationals which she was scheduled to compete in. Yang Yilin's improvement on beam and floor makes her scores there equal or perhaps even higher than what Deng is capable of, and that reason, in addition to inexperience, look to make it unlikely Deng will be named as the 6th gymnast to the team.

Outlook: Though hardly a shoo-in for the last spot on the team, Deng's strengths on three apparatus make her ideal alternate material. A DTY vault and strong A-scores on beam and floor will be ideal to use if a substitution is needed, and while Deng lacks experience, she is a bit more consistent than Sui Lu and Xiao Sha and I personally think the Chinese would be idiotic to leave her off the team entirely.


Zhang Nan

Pros: Zhang Nan is the only athlete besides Cheng Fei with a legitimate chance at a second Olympic games. Her experience and prowess on beam is noteworthy, and won a bronze on beam at the Chinese Nationals ahead of Li Shanshan and Xiao Sha who suffered falls and finished behind Sui Lu, who looks to have little chance to make the team. Zhang has generally been scored favorably over the years by the judges, the most notable example being when she won Olympic AA bronze in Athens 2004 when Russian Anna Pavlova was felt by most to have put forth a superior effort in that meet.

Cons: Solid BB scores from Yang Yilin at recent meets (notably French Nationals AA final) provide little use for Zhang Nan to be named to the team. Li Shanshan and Xiao Sha are capable of higher marks than Zhang is, and the only reason Zhang would be named to the team would be for beam, which is likely far too little of a contribution than what China is looking for.

Outlook: The writing was on the wall when the coaches handed over the team captain duties that were formerly Zhang Nan's to Cheng Fei, and while Zhang Nan made an admirable comeback on beam at the Chinese Nationals, she simply brings too little to the table to be considered seriously for an Olympic birth.


Things To Be Considered When Naming This Team:

• As far as alternates and substitution for injured teammates is concerned, the delegation has 24 hours prior to the beginning of prelims to submit the team's final roster, which means NO SUBSTITUTION after that is allowed. This fact alone, if considered, should help He Ning or (especially) PPP's chances because Cheng Fei or Li Shanshan competing UB in team finals would be the laughing stock of the gymnastics world and someone like Xiao Sha or He Ning to compete there in TF would also open a big door for the United States team, which then would likely have a smaller UB deficit to China in that scenario.
  
• Xiao Sha seems to be incapable of hitting two clean beam sets in a row among qualifications and finals, whether it be a world cup meet or a national/world championship. So, if Xiao Sha is to get that 6th spot, if she hits in prelims than the Chinese should NOT use her in team finals, subbing in Yang Yilin to compete BB in TF instead. However, if she falls in prelims than China should select to her to compete BB in TF in a heartbeat, with past history making it a good indication she would hit and score highly.

• China's lack of depth on BB and FX s considerably less so than UB, which makes me think that the 6th girl should have at least an adequate, preferably very good, UB routine.

Let us take a look at the possible scenarios if one of the Chinese gymnasts is to get injured, assuming the team is Fei, Yuyuan, Kexin, Yilin, Shanshan, and Ning:

Cheng Fei
possible sub: Deng Linlin

VT: Yuyuan, Yilin, Kexin
UB: not affected
BB: Shanshan, Yilin, Linlin
FX: Yuyuan, Yilin, Linlin


Yang Yilin
possible subs: PPP/Linlin/Sha

VT: Fei, Yuyuan, Kexin
UB: Kexin, Yuyuan, Ning
BB: Shanshan, Fei, Linlin/Sha
FX: Fei, Yuyuan, Ning

He Kexin
possible subs: PPP

VT: Fei, Yuyuan, Yilin
UB: Yilin, Yuyuan, PPP
BB: not affected
FX: not affected


Jiang Yuyuan
possible subs: PPP

VT: Cheng, Yilin, Kexin
UB: Kexin, Yilin, Ning/PPP
BB: not affected
FX: Cheng, Yilin, Ning


Li Shanshan
possible subs: Linlin/Sha

VT/UB/FX: not affected
BB: Fei, Yilin, Linlin/Sha


He Ning

Not a first choice for being in team finals, but her good routines on bars and floor will likely make PPP the substitute if He Ning is to get injured, with Deng Linlin being a possibility as well.


Predicted Team

1. Cheng Fei
2. Yang Yilin
3. Jiang Yuyuan
4. He Kexin
5. Li Shanshan
6. He Ning

Alternates

1. Pang PanPan
2. Deng Linlin
3. Xiao Sha

China's possible decision to include Ning as the last girl at first would look like an unintelligent decision, but the more and more one analyzes He Ning's potential for the team she really would be the best pick for the last girl. Though unlikely to compete in team finals unless if someone is to get injured, Ning provides strong experience, consistency, leadership, and reliable work on uneven bars and floor exercise, which are the events China is most in need of back-up gymnasts. Ning would simply be an insurance policy to the team, but a good one at that. We shall see who gets the last spot for China, and I don't think I'm the only person who is putting their money down on He Ning to the get the final spot for China.


Next Post: Mediterranean Gym Cup Analysis

That is all.

All Quiet on the Gymnastics Front (NOT)

Above: Happy Father's Day! Andy Memmel and Valeri Liukin with their respective daughters.


Prior to the start of the all important U.S. Olympic Trials next week, there have been several Olympic trials or pre-Olympic dual meets going on around the world. Four Chinese gymnasts have participated at the French Olympic Trials in what will likely be their last international meet prior to Beijing, and there has also been the Brazilian Nationals and a dual meet between Romania and Great Britain. Oh and Shawn Johnson's gym got flooded=AAAAAAAAAAAAH!

Without further ado:



French Nationals That Are Really All About the Chinese

• Yang Yilin had a strong showing, and is more and more beginning to showcase her strengths as a legitimate contender for Olympic AA gold. Posted marks of 15.125 (VT), 16.65 (UB), 15.75 (BB), and 15.175 (FX). In event finals she won gold on UB (16.825), tied for third on BB (15.325), but had a fall on FX (13.75). Yang has the potential to sneak into the AA medal ranks, but winning will be a tall order. Yang's consistency is something to be admired, though stamina required for a two-day competition probably impeded her event final FX and BB efforts. The more I think about it, the Chinese could use Yang on BB in team finals. She can hit, maybe with not a super high mark, but with a respectable mark that the Chinese can count on for consistency.


• Jiang Yuyuan had a lackluster vault score (14.575), which possibly could have been due to a shaky Amanar that was downgraded to a DTY, though there is no video yet. Has a 7.3 A-score on UB, but handstand deductions for late pirouetting are likely coming into play with scores of 15.8 (8.5 B) and 15.65 (7.2 A, 8.45 B) on that event. Won the floor exercise title but had a low mark on beam in AA finals (15.025). Jiang has the goods to win Olympic AA, but deductions like missed handstands, wobbles on beam, and occasional OOB's on floor will make the difference.



• Cheng Fei did not do her Amanar in either AA or event finals, but did do her Cheng (apparently successfully) in event finals, vault being the only event final she competed in. Scored a solid but unspectacular 15.55 in AA finals and landed on her head on her double-double on floor, scoring only a 14.275. Not quite the meet she was looking for, but she a very experienced veteran who was probably just treating this as a warm-up meet. It is beginning to look like she will be doing her Cheng vault in Olympic team finals, instead of the Amanar vault which she has done unsuccessfully in world team finals for the last two years.


• After this meet I seriously cannot see how the Chinese are going to even think of letting Sui Lu step foot into Beijing come August. Landed OOB on floor in AA finals (14.7) and had multiple falls off the balance beam as well (13.725). A score in the 13's would open a huge door for the USA in team finals, though Sui did mark a reasonable 15.35 in event finals. Sui Lu has all the potential to be the missing piece of the puzzle that China has been looking for, I thought after seeing the Chinese Nationals that Sui was a sure lock for the team. But as I said in my Chinese Olympic Team Outlook post back in early May, Sui Lu would be a huge gamble to risk competing in the Olympic Games, and I think the Chinese by now have realized that the risk of sending Sui will outshine the reward.


• Don't confirm this, but I heard that the French Olympic Team is: Pauline Morel, Marine Petit, Laetitia Dugain, Cassy Vericel, Marine Debauve, and Kathleen Lindor. Severino's Achilles injury from Europeans in April has disallowed this great gymnast from going to a third Olympics. Marine Debauve, who placed 7th AA at the '04 Olympics, has made a successful comeback to go to her 2nd Olympic Games. Cassy Vericel showed a 6.4 A-score on floor in the event finals of these championships, which apparently included a Dos Santos (piked double Arabian).


• Beth Tweddle was scheduled to compete but withdrew to a foot injury. No word yet on how serious it is.


• These scores were definitely stingy (comparative to USA and China Nats), and probably more or less around what you will see in Beijing.

Brazilian Nationals

• Penguin 888 reports that Ana Claudia Silva is the new AA champ of Brazil, not Jade Barbosa (shock horror) Jade had falls on her Amanar (which scored a 14.5 and probably wasn't credited with full rotation, it was a truly splatted vault if there ever was one) and a fall on her acro series on beam, which also gave her trouble at the recent Moscow World Cup.


• Khiuani Dias withdrew from the competition entirely, and Daiane dos Santos still has a ways to go on floor exercise (14.667 in prelims).


• Despite Jade's AA trouble, she did manage wins on vault, bars and floor. No word yet on who won beam, but I suspect that top qualifier Daniele Hypolito (15.7 in prelims, rumors of a 7.0 A-score here) won that event.


• In prelims, Lais Souza was unspectacular, only finishing in the top three on balance beam with a 14.733 there.


• Jade has looked very skaky this year, although her floor exercise consistency looks to be greatly improving. She did her first Amanar vault of 2008 and it wasn't even close, and the ff+ff+2-foot layout acro series on beam has been giving Barbosa all sorts of trouble. Losing to little known all arounder Ana Claudia Silva will no doubt have a negative affect on Jade's confidence. However, last year Jade looked like an unremarkable gymnast until the Worlds where she easily was in the best condition of her life and was challenging for the World AA title. If she can repeat that concept of peaking at the right time for Beijing, than the top AA girls better watch out. Sadly though, I don't see it happening. Her consistency isn't improving, and if anything it is regressing to the point where hitting 4 for 4 routines in a major championship seems to be very unlikely.

GBR vs. ROM Dual Meet

• Romania won here (duh), with Steliana Nistor winning the AA. Steliana apparently only did a yurchenko 1.5 (14.6), but was excellent on bars and beam and finished with an AA score of 61.0. Likely fell on floor in the AA (14.2), but adding eight tenths to 61 would make Steliana a very legitimate AA contender, though these scores look to be inflated. Nistor followed up her AA win with a UB win and silvers on BB and FX. Overall, Nistor looks to be close to top shape less than two months prior to the start of the Games.


• Rebecca Downie is coming into her own for the British team and placed a strong 2nd AA with scores ranging from 14.55 (floor) to 15.8 (bars). Won vault in event finals and also placed 2nd on uneven bars. The emergence of this youngster will hopefully help Great Britain to make Olympic team finals.


• Sandra Izbasa is still having problems with the dreaded bars (13.55-sat down dismount) which will very likely take her out of the Olympic AA medal hunt in Beijing, unfortunately. Strong work on beam and floor, and a DTY on vault (relatively skaky though) kept Izbasa in the AA medals with a bronze at this meet, and would end up defeating Nistor for gold on both of those events in event finals. Without Ponor competing, Izbasa could make Olympic BB finals as well as challenging for FX gold, now that she won't have to worry about the 2-per country rule.


• Imogen Cairns improved her Olympic chances by defeating compatriot Marissa King for silver on vault. King, a vault specialist, tied for 5th AA but appeared to be lackluster throughout the competition on her key event to make the British Olympic team.

Thoughts and Rumors on Shawn Johnson's Flooding Situation

If you haven't already heard, there have been floods around much of Iowa and in the process the floods decided to go and invade Shawn Johnson's gym, which ended up being a very unusual roadblock for Shawn's training for the Olympics. There have been rumors that Martha K. is going to let Shawn train at the ranch after the trials until, presumably, when the U.S. team leaves for Beijing. Shawn went to Iowa State to train immediately following the flood, and should be leaving for the trials on Monday. There have been reports suggesting that Johnson left West Des Moines with almost the assumption that she won't be returning until possibly after the Olympics are over. Barring something very unlikely Shawn will get one of the two guaranteed births to the Olympic team in Philly next week. Training at the camp would be an ideal situation for Shawn, as the camp now has Jansen-Fritsen equipment, the same equipment being used in Philly, Beijing, and at Shawn's gym. However, if Shawn feels that Martha K. would not be a positive influence to her training (though Chow and Li will probably both go down with her and still coach her as normal), than Shawn should likely move in with another top gymnast. In this scenario, Chellsie Memmel would come to mind. Shawn and Chellsie's personalities are fairly similar, and having training partners would allow both gymnasts to push each other even more to come to the Olympics in peak condition.

EDIT: Shawn will be going back to Chow's after the Olympic Trials.

That is all.

Olympic UB Final Outlook

The apparatus final to watch at these summer Olympics in Beijing, China, is the women's uneven bars final. All of the medal contenders on this apparatus have been upgrading their uneven bar routines over the past year like crazy to provide you with a thrilling showdown between several different styles of bar work. Bars queen Svetlana Khorkina of Russia may have retired, but that doesn't mean you should miss this battle between gymnasts from countries such as China, USA, Russia, Great Britain, and even Romania and Germany likely to have athletes taking part in this final. Among all the apparatus finals being contested in the Olympics, the uneven bars final in Beijing is one event NOT to be missed.


Predicted Bars Finalists:

Marie Sophie-Hindermann (Germany)
He Kexin (China)
Nastia Liukin (USA)
Chellsie Memmel (USA)
Steliana Nistor (Romania)
Ksenia Semionova (Russia)
Elizabeth Tweddle (GBR)
Yang Yilin (China)


Predicted Reserves:

Anja Brinker (Germany)
Hong Su Jong (PRK)
Dariya Zgoba (Ukraine)


The Contenders (Note: The A-scores I have listed are for what athletes have either competed or have publicly stated that they plan on competing)


Marie-Sophie Hindermann (Germany)

Results: 2008 German Nationals-3rd place, 2008 Europeans-9th place(qualifying), 2007 Worlds-5th place

A-score: 7.3

Pros: Hindermann is appreciated for her very clean, correct style on the uneven bars. Form deductions that others suffer from do not apply to Hindermann, especially when it comes to not cowboying her double front dismount. Marie has upgraded her set to potentially .5 over where it was last year.

Cons: Hindermann is very consistent with NOT hitting her bar set. Hindermann would've challenged for the European title on bars earlier this year, but a failed dismount in prelims took away her chances of competing in the finals. She also had issues at the recent German Nationals, and only placed 3rd on this event in a competition she could've easily won.

Outlook: I predicted Hindermann would make bars finals because her A-score is higher than all of my predicted bars reserve gymnasts. Hindermann has yet to really put it all together on this event since last year's worlds. However, upgrades and good form could make Hindermann an outside medal threat at the Olympics if she hits her routine.


He Kexin (China)

Results: 2008 Chinese Nationals Bars Champion, 2008 Cottbus World Cup champion, 2008 Doha World Cup champion

A-score: 7.7 (rumored upgrades)

Pros: He Kexin is the solid favorite for uneven bars gold at these Olympics. Her consistency is remarkable, given the fact that she has yet to miss her extraordinarily difficult routine at a major competition. He Kexin's reliance on pirouettes is less so than her main rivals Nastia Liukin and Yang Yilin, which means there is less room for potential handstand deductions for Kexin. Stamina has not appeared to be an issue at all for Kexin's set, which is something that top bars challenger Liukin cannot say.

Cons: He Kexin's underage rumors could end up backfiring on the Chinese, with the judges having the option of giving a tight execution score to Kexin in order to prevent her from winning gold. Kexin withdrew from the recent Barcelona World Cup for reasons unknown, and also withdrew from the finals of the Tianjin World Cup due to "exhaustion." These recent occurrences could mean that Kexin is not as physically and mentally prepared for the Olympics as she would like.

Outlook: He Kexin has dominated bars throughout the entire year and will be tough to beat in Beijing. Consistency, lack of deductions, and incredible difficulty look to be the right combination for gold. The only things that are standing in the way are He Kexin dealing with the pressure herself and possible political disfavortism from the judges who are known to be relatively tight with the Chinese gymnasts' scores.


Nastia Liukin (USA)

Results: 2005-2008 USA Bars Champion, 2008 Pacific Rim-2nd place(tie), 2007 Worlds-2nd place, 2006 Worlds-2nd place, 2005 World Bars Champion

A-score: 7.7 (though unlikely, if Liukin connects Tkatchev + Pak she would have a maximum A-score of 7.9)

Pros: Nastia is a formidable challenger on this event because of her exquisite body line, good form and high difficulty. Nastia showed improvement in her bar work at the recent U.S. Nationals, especially when it came to hitting handstands. Judges are generally inclined to score tall girls favorably on this event, and Liukin is no exception. Nastia has also competed in three world bars finals, medaling in all of them, and her top rival He Kexin doesn't even have the experience of a world championship under her belt.

Cons: Nastia occurs deductions right off the bat for cowboyed form on her double front 1/2 dismount, in addition is usually a bit off handstand in her Ono 1.5 pirouette. Liukin has been struggling with maintaining her stamina throughout the routine and generally has less-than-desired landings on her dismount. Liukin has also been on the losing end twice during close bars races at the last two world championships.

Outlook: Nastia's #1 priority prior to the Olympics is cleaning up her dismount, which has about a .3 form deduction and additional deductions if she were to have a faulty landing. Liukin shouldn't be subject to another questionable loss of a bars gold medal, as the bars winners at the last two world championships (Elizabeth Tweddle and Ksenia Semionova) were from countries that had yet to win a medal in the competition. With Liukin's top rivals likely to be the two Chinese, Nastia shouldn't be subject to a loss due to the judges wanting to award the gold medal to someone who not from an especially dominant gymnastics nation. However, Nastia's scores and domestic and international competition have yet to match those of He Kexin, and might need a sizable error on her part to win the gold.


Chellsie Memmel (USA)

Results: 2008 U.S. Nationals-2nd place, 2006 Worlds-2nd place (qualifying), 2005 Worlds-2nd place, 2003 Co-World Bars Champion

A-score: 7.0 (stated it could be as high as 7.2)

Pros: Chellsie has strong uneven bar work and her competitive spirit has always made her a favorite of the international judges, which should continue due to the fact that Memmel has even upgraded since her shoulder injury of doom. Chellsie's extremely consistent bar work and amplitude with her releases are also assets to contend for a bars medal.

Cons: Even at top form, Chellsie is .5 behind the top A-scores on this event. This means that Chellsie would really need to rely on a big mistake from at least one of the top bars gymnasts to get a medal, and so far this year Kexin, Yilin, and Liukin have all looked pretty consistent on this event.

Outlook: Chellsie's upgrades make her a very likely candidate to get into bars finals, but medaling is a different story. However, Memmel's competitive nature would make her likely to do a great routine in bars finals and if another top challenger falls under the pressure Chellsie would be right there to snatch a spot on the podium. Because of a lower start score, any podium finish will likely come by default for Memmel, unfortunately.


Steliana Nistor (Romania)

Results: 2008 Europeans-2nd place, 2007 Worlds-6th place, 2006 Worlds-7th place

A-score: 7.3

Pros: Steliana is a very well-trained athlete, and in typical Romanian fashion can cover up a mistake like no other. Steliana is quick thinking enough to save any pirouette that is not completed and rearrange her routine accordingly. Steliana is also a very consistent gymnast, especially on this event, and often sticks her landings cold which is not something many other gymnasts can do here.

Cons: Steliana's form is something to be desired and at the Europeans in April she lost the bars title to Ksenia Semionova despite hitting the routine with a .3 A-score advantage over Semionova. Nistor also tends to suffer from deductions from missed handstands for her multiple pirouetting skills in her routine. Lagging behind Liukin, Yilin, Kexin, and others with her start value also doesn't help Nistor's bid for a bars medal.

Outlook: Steliana is a consistent gymnast but doesn't have the finest quality bar work like that of the other top bar workers. As a competitor she is a very reliable gymnast and is able to work through errors efficiently in her routine, but like Memmel a medal on bars for Nistor will likely come at the expense of other gymnasts' errors.


Ksenia Semionova (Russia)

Results: 2008 Moscow World Cup Bars Champion, 2008 European Bars Champion, 2007 World Bars Champion

A-score: 7.2 (potentially 7.6 if she connects tkatchev + 1.5 pirouette + jaegar but has yet to show this combo)

Pros: One of the lone bright spots for the Russian team in this entire quad, Ksenia has strong political favor from the eastern-bloc nations to score her well as one of their best hopes for an individual medal of any gymnastics event for the women. Ksenia is generally a consistent bars worker and could be a top challenger for UB gold if she adds the aformentioned connection, thus only putting her .1 behind Liukin, Kexin, and Yilin in terms of A-scores.

Cons: Ksenia has been noted to have a stock routine, i.e. a routine that really doesn't have anything truly original. Semionova suffers form deductions for her Deltchev release, as well as her piked double arabian dismount, the latter of which she is sometimes downgraded on because she tucks her legs in the second salto. Also, if Semionova were to not upgrade to the aformentioned combination (which she so far happens), her start value would be sizably behind the other top bars workers.

Outlook: Semionova's technique looks to make her capable of adding the 1.5 turn into an immediate jaegar, and the Russians should know that such an upgrade is necessary for a UB medal of any color. Still, Semionova's bar work might not be on par with Tweddle, Liukin, Yilin, and Kexin because of form and other deductions, however Semionova always seems to be scored favorably on this event in any major competition.


Elizabeth Tweddle (GBR)

Results: 2008 Europeans-4th place, 2007 Worlds-4th place, 2006 World Bars Champion, 2005 Worlds-3rd place, 2003 Worlds-3rd place

A-score: 7.4 (rumored upgrades)

Pros: Tweddle has a very consistent bars routine and has had the highest B-score at the last two world championship bars finals because of her good form and lack of handstand deductions (she is more reliant on releases than pirouettes). Tweddle has a very innovative bar routine and has her own element, a toe-on tkatchev 1/2, which she is hoping to have named after her. An upgraded start value of 7.4 and even more potential upgrades to come will boost Tweddle's bar medal chances considerably.

Cons: A failed connection between a toe-on tkatchev and a pak salto lost Tweddle a medal at last year's world championships. Beth has been inconsistent with getting her toe-on full prior to her dismount to the handstand, and also lost credit for her new release skill when she failed to make her straddle back to handtand afterward (though she has since changed the combo to an Ezhova transition). Tweddle has never finished lower than 4th in a world bars final, but all of these little errors seem to plague Beth in bars finals, as does an older body which tends to be more prone to injury.

Outlook: Everyone is thinking about the He Kexin vs. Nastia Liukin showdown, but don't count out Elizabeth Tweddle. She needs to upgrade from her already high 7.4 A-score about .2 to really be in the hunt and thus won't have to rely on other's mistakes to get on the podium. With Beth's good technique and experience she could go as far as taking everyone by surprise by winning gold, but she will need to be flawless in order to do so.


Yang Yilin (China)

Results: 2008 Tianjin World Cup Bars Champion, 2008 Chinese Nationals-2nd place, 2007 Worlds-3rd place

A-score: 7.7 (rumored upgrades)

Pros: Yang Yilin is an extremely consistent competitor who has upgraded her bar routine a whooping .7 in the last year and is currently competing her 7.7 A-score bar routine cleanly. Yang has excellent form and has a good combination of high release moves with beautiful pirouetting. Yang also won't have to deal with the pressure of her teammate, He Kexin, who will have to take far more pressure on her shoulders when competing in Olympic bars finals.

Cons: Yang Yilin was given relatively tight execution marks throughout the competition on bars at last year's worlds, and has yet to beat He Kexin on this event. Yang is not as much of a well-known name as Liukin, Kexin, Tweddle, and Semionova and thus judges might not be as inclined to score her highly. Like Liukin, Yang Yilin earns a lot of her start value in her pirouetting and a few missed handstands here and there will make the difference in such a tight field.

Outlook: Yang Yilin could be a huge surprise on this event, with the potential to upset the favorites and win the gold. However, judges will likely be more inclined to score Kexin and Liukin more favorably than Yilin, and Yang cannot afford any short handstands or dismount steps or hops if she wants gold. A medal is very possible on this event, but like Tweddle Yang will likely need close to a flawless routine if she is going for the top spot on the podium.


Reserve Athletes

Anja Brinker (Germany)- Has a 7.1 A-score and has a very clean and mostly consistent work on this apparatus, though an apparent fall at the recent German Nationals took her out of the medals there. However, I would say that if one of the above predicted bars finalists were to not make it to bars finals due to a fall/injury (mainly Hindermann because of her recent bars issues), I would predict Brinker to sneak in there if she hits her prelims routine.

Hong Su Jong (PRK)- Very consistent and clean bar worker, but as of last year's worlds only has a 6.6 A-score. I don't actually predict many upgrades for Su Jong on bars at the Olympics because of the Koreans likely turning their focus toward Su Jong's vault efforts.

Dariya Zgoba (Ukraine)- Zgoba is an excellent bar worker but it will be hard, though certainly possible, task to make it in to Olympic bars finals. Zgoba has a potential 7.0 A-score but often suffers from form deductions and (correct me if I'm wrong) a compostition deduction for standing on the low bar to transition to the high bar. I would predict Zgoba to get into bars finals if Hindermann and Brinker make mistakes, enough so that Zgoba could compete in the biggest meet of her career.


Predicted Podium:

Gold: He Kexin (China)

Silver: Yang Yilin (China)

Bronze: Nastia Liukin (USA)


With Kexin and Yilin more likely to upgrade than Liukin and with them being more consistent than Liukin, I do predict that these two Chinese girls will finish 1-2 and Nastia will have to settle for bronze. As far as Tweddle and Semionova are concerned, Tweddle I would actually predict to be battling for a medal more so than Semionova because of her experience, good execution and difficulty, and generally good scoring from the judges. Semionova's scoring favor will likely depend on whether Russia gets its team medal back that they so heartbreakingly lost last year. Even with a tkatchev + 1.5 turn immediate jaegar upgrade, I don't see Semionova being able to put together a competitive effort for the finals when she has yet to compete her full difficulty this year and with form that can be a big reason for deduction.

Next Post: USA/China Bubble Girls Analysis

That is all.