Women's Podium Training Session-China and Romania

Whether it is to add a perspective and knowledge on things or to provide commentary if NBCOlympics doesn't work for you, I will be doing my own "quick hits" tonight on my blog for the podium training session#1, featuring medal contending teams China and Romania.

9:59 EST Gymnasts are marching out.

10:02 China is warming-up on beam, Romania on vault. The event order of the podium training session will be the same as the actual team prelims.

10:06 Yang Yilin had a fall on her front aerial+side aerial combo, hit that combo perfectly while Chinese were warming up. Otherwise a good set.

10:09 Deng Linlin, excellent beam set aside from a low dismount landing on her double pike.

10:11 Li Shanshan had an exceptional beam set, though did have a low chest and one step on her double pike. No Y-scale turn.

10:15 Cheng Fei went before Deng Linlin and had a very solid set as well, awkward landing on her 2.5 dismount, however. Jiang Yuyuan fell on her back tuck+sheep jump (fall looked savable) and was off alignment on her Ruflova. Odd how Yuyuan went last on this event, her weakest. Yilin just hit her front aerial+side aerial perfectly.

10:19 Nistor was very distraught after doing her vault (which NBC didn't show). Bela Karolyi is in the stands, talking to the media. China is done with beam.

10:22 First rotation is concluded.

10:24 Romania is moving to bars, China to floor. Not surprisingly, He Kexin is not doing floor and didn't do beam.

10:33 Deng Linlin was listed as "He Kexin." LOL Took a step on double arabian, underotated triple turn, and also underotated her 2.5 twist at the end of her combo pass.

10:37 Yang Yilin, could've gone OOB on her first pass (view was obstructed but it looked like she went out), triple twist was possibly short of rotation and had low landings on her combination pass and finishing double pike. This definitely was not her best routine here.

10:40 Jiang Yuyuan, very good tumbling and expression. Had a low double pike and an underotated triple turn but otherwise flawless.

10:42 Cheng Fei, has switched her routine around and put piked full-in for her second pass, whip+triple for her 3rd, and 2.5 twist to dismount. If I am not mistaken I believe that puts her routine at a 6.6 A-score, the same as Shawn Johnson. Really excellent set, chest was low on her double-double (as it normally is) and whip+triple full was a tad off but Cheng looks like she is in fine shape for these Olympic Games.

10:44 China put Li Shanshan last on floor, don't know why they're putting their weak links last in the lineup and whether they will do that come time preliminaries. Rotation 2 has concluded.

10:49 DTY from Deng Linlin with one step, did another one later that was almost identical. As expected, Shanshan is sitting this event out.

10:55 Showed parts of Nistor and Izbasa's beam routines and they looked good, minus a very dropped back (even more so than I remembered it being) on Nistor's "Nistor." Two good Amanars from Cheng Fei, remember she hasn't even tried the Amanar all year long. Yuyuan did another Amanar, but with a big step to the side and was possibly a smidget underotated.

11:02 Cheng Fei just landed on her knees on her Cheng vault attempt, first major mistake from her during this entire podium training session.

11:04 Cheng Fei did her Cheng again, much improved. Had one hop and piked down the last half twist of the vault, and a low chest on landing. Very solid vault though, definitely still the prime favorite for vault gold.

11:05 Gymnasts marching to final piece of apparatus, which for China is uneven bars.

11:09 Deng Linlin crashed her piked jaegar, and had several missed handstands. Great laidout full-twisting double back dismount.

11:12 He Kexin did some skills include her jaegar1/2+jaegar combo, and her 1.5 pirouette into her tucked full-in dismount. Step on the landing but looked excellent as always.

11:15 Full set from Deng Linlin, very low dismount. Hit the jaegar she missed earlier but broke form. Had several missed handstands. In the event that China would have to use Linlin to do UB in TF a door would come flinging open for the United States.

11:17 Yuyuan crashed her jaegar, otherwise a good set. Falls on beam and bars for Yuyuan in this podium training session are a bit unusual for this generally consistent gymnast.

11:20 Yang Yilin had a low landing on her dismount and failed to go over the bar one of her pirouettes, Yang too has looked a tad off her game the entire night.

11:23 Excellent set from He Kexin, small hop on landing and had a loss of swing on her shoot transition to the high bar.

11:24 Yuyuan made her jaegar afterwards without issue, but went over on a stalder1/2 on the low bar and had to let go of the bar and do it again. Yuyuan also had a step forward on her double layout dismount.

11:25 Saw Izbasa and the last two tumbling lines of her routine (1.5 twist+rudi and triple twist). Looked a tad sluggish, and triple twist was underotated and had some crossed legs as well.

11:30 He Kexin went back and did another bar routine. Did an even better routine complete with a stuck dismount. Almost overarched a low bar handstand, however, but this girl is so bloody consistent it will be a tall order for anyone to beat her in uneven bar finals.

11:33 This now concludes the women's podium training session for subdivision one. Most of the footage was on China, and here are my comments on each member of the team.

Cheng Fei: She is peaking at the right time, enough said. Excellent on her three apparatus; she is going to be tough to beat for floor and vault finals. Did indeed go for the 6.6 A-score on FX, and with Johnson playing with fire on some of her skills (whip+triple twist in particular) and Izbasa looking a bit shaky, Cheng could indeed be the one to beat on that apparatus. A fall on her first Cheng vault is a tad alarming, but she did her second one just fine so I don't think it is much of a cause for concern. Balance beam looked very solid as well and has wisely stuck with her 2.5 dismount.

Yang Yilin: Did not see her DTY, but looked hot and cold throughout the training. Had a fall on beam, several landing issues on floor and had a couple problems on uneven bars as well, especially with not making it over the bar on that one pirouette that I mentioned previously. Is probably just working out the kinks with a lot of these elements, as she is generally a very solid competitor under pressure.

Jiang Yuyuan: FX looked great, but was shaky elsewhere. Her Amanar vault may have been a tad short of rotation, and she did step sideways and over the line as well. Uneven bars she had two major errors on, her jaegar being one and her stalder1/2 on the low bar (which she did in a separate routine) being the other. Balance beam looked very confident and then all of a sudden was off the beam on her back tuck+sheep jump. Some very uncharacteristic errors in this session from Yuyuan, but like Fei and Yilin, Jiang Yuyuan generally does best under pressure.

He Kexin: Will not be doing BB and FX, which we knew all along. Did not see her DTY but UB looked fabulous as always.

Li Shanshan: Interesting how China put their weak link last on every apparatus, and for Shanshan that was bars and floor. Looked OK, not great, on those apparatus. Her balance beam, on the other hand, was stunning. Truly a master of that event, however her sheep jump form could've been better and the same can be said for her dismount landing. With that said, the rest of that routine was spot on and I think if she were to repeat that podium training session BB set she would have BB gold pretty much locked up.

Deng Linlin: China's decision to take Linlin primarily for beam looks to be paying off, Deng had a great routine with few wobbles in sight. Also hit two nice DTY's, and while her floor was decent I believe China will shy away from wanting to use her there in team finals, and the same can definitely be said for bars. Had some issues with uneven bars as I mentioned previously, but otherwise performed well.


Overall: Obviously China has no plans to peak in this prelims session, however what is interesting with China is that they are not dealing with any of the jet lag and time-change issues that the other teams have so what we saw tonight should be a good indication of what we're going to see in prelims. The team looked very solid, however Yilin and Yuyuan in particular had some issues here and there. I didn't notice any upgrades with the exception of Cheng Fei's floor routine. China is pretty set with all of their team final lineups in terms of being competitive with the USA and all of the other teams. While I would say this team will be tough to beat, I wouldn't say they are unbeatable.

That is all.

Thoughts on Paul Hamm's Injury and He Kexin's Underage Status

As anyone who is even a remotely avid gymnastics fan should know by now, Paul Hamm pulled himself out of the 2008 U.S. Olympic MAG team. I was shocked to hear this news, but there is no time for the U.S. men's team to look back now. Raj Bhavsar, who was controversially sidelined in Athens as an alternate, was chosen to replace Hamm and will finally be in pursuit of his Olympic dream that was taken away from him four years back. (It is worth noting that the USA men gave up .887 to Japan on rings at the 2004 Olympic MAG team finals, and eventually lost the gold by .888. Bhavsar averaged a 9.7875 at the 2004 Olympic Trials, the highest rings total for any of the U.S. men, and the U.S. winded up counting a 9.125 in Athens TF from Jason Gatson) For those that are wondering whether USA can medal now that Paul Hamm is out, the answer is yes. Check this out:


With Raj on the team (Thanks to Denn333 and TCO from WWGYM for contributing the Nats/Oly Trials average scores )
USA MAG Weighted Average of All Four Scores from Nationals/Olympic Trials: 276.45
Dropping the lowest of the four scores for each gymnast: 278.517

Team Placements From 2007 Worlds
Gold: China(281.900)
Silver: Japan (277.025)
Bronze: Germany (273.525)
4th: USA(272.275)
5th: Korea (269.95)
6th: Spain (269.40)
7th: Russia (269.20)
8th: Romania (267.75)

Team Placements from 2008 Europeans (Not entirely comparable because of 5-3-3 format instead of 6-3-3)Note: Scores were not averaged here, I am just providing averages to show what there consistent scoring potential amounts to)
Gold: Russia (prelims: 273.175, finals: 272.45, avg: 272.8125, +3.6125 from Worlds)
Silver: Germany (prelims: 268.00, finals: 269.575, avg: 268.7875, -4.7375 from Worlds)
Bronze: Romania (prelims: 266.275, finals: 268.95 avg: 267.6125, -0.1375 from Worlds)

So, as you can see from these team totals that USA easily has the potential to medal, even without Paul Hamm. USA (or any other team) would need a Miracle that would leave even Miracle on the Ice in the dust to overtake China. However, a bronze medal, or even a silver, is still a definite possibility for the USA men in Beijing. Japan should be a top contender for a medal, but it is worth noting that while there have likely made upgrades since last year the team is missing Hisashi Mizutori, a two-time World AA medalist. Mizutori suffered a shoulder injury and delivered a disastrous performance at the 2008 Japanese Olympic Trials which kept him off the team entirely. Though a healthy Mizutori is perhaps not as valuable to Japan as a healthy Paul Hamm would to USA, Mizutori contributed five scores in team finals last year, four of them which were solidly over 15. USA ultimately needs to hit well in prelims to get a good draw for the team finals (teams ranked 5th and 6th after prelims end on pommel in team finals, whereas finishing 3rd or 4th would enable USA to finish on floor which would be more ideal). Let us take a look at potential line-ups for team prelims and finals:


FX

Prelims: Hamm, Hagerty, Horton, Spring, Bhavsar
Finals: Hamm, Hagerty, Horton (possibly Spring if he can upgrade his last pass, currently a double twist)

PH

Prelims: Hamm, Bhavsar, Tan, Horton, Hagerty
Finals: Hamm, Bhavsar, Tan

SR

Prelims: Tan, Horton, Bhavsar, Spring, Hagerty
Finals: Tan, Horton, Bhavsar

VT

Prelims: Bhavsar, Hamm, Horton, Spring, Hagerty
Finals: Any of the first four (Hagerty's vault is easier), Spring had the highest average among the members of the team from Nats/Olympic Trials and Hamm's score of 16.4 from Nationals Day one was the highest recorded from a member of this team at those two meets.

PB

Prelims: Spring, Bhavsar, Horton, Hagerty, Tan
Finals: Spring, Bhavsar, Horton

HB

Prelims: Hagerty, Hamm, Spring, Horton, Bhavsar
Finals: Hagerty, Hamm, Spring

Note: The prelims line-up for HB will be a relatively large decision to make, with Raj Bhavsar's AA prospects on the line. The weighted averages (40% Nats, 60% Trials) from Nats/Olympic Trials for Tan and Bhavsar's HB routines were 14.13 and 14.03 respectively, a mere .1 difference between the two. However, Tan's personal best on this event was a 15.05 from day one of Trials, whereas Bhavsar's is only a 14.1. However, Tan is capable of bombing to the fullest degree (12.55 on day 1 nats, 13.85 on day 2 trials) so he won't be touching team finals on that event. USA shouldn't be in danger of missing team finals, though they would want to get into the top four in prelims so that they won't have to end on pommel horse (5th and 6th ranked teams after prelims have to end on pommel horse). And while Raj and Joey Hagerty will not be looking at an AA medal, Raj did finish ahead of Joey on both days of trials in the AA. I would have to say Bhavsar has earned his status as an AAer at the Olympics.


Why Was Raj Bhavsar Picked Over Sasha Artemev?

Though it would at first seem logical to pick are strongest (when he hits) pommel horse worker given that pommels is USA's weakest event and all the more weaker without Paul Hamm, the powers that be for the U.S. men's selection committee decided to go with a different strategy. Looking at the overall picture, Bhavsar could contribute three events in team finals. Artemev on the other hand would only contribute on one event over Bhavsar, that of course being pommel horse. Rings is almost a given for Raj to perform in team finals, with parallel bars and vault being quite definite possibilities as well. Bhavsar outscored Artemev by sizable margins on all three events, and looking at the Nats/Trials weighted averages of Bhavsar vs. Artemev:

PH

Artemev: 14.83
Bhavsar: 14.14

Advantage: Artemev 0.69

SR

Artemev: (Using Spring's average instead because he is stronger here than Artemev): 14.805
Bhavsar: 15.580

Advantage: Bhavsar .775

VT

Artemev: 15.855
Bhavsar: 16.005

Advantage: Bhavsar 0.15

PB

Artemev: 15.220
Bhavsar: 15.440

Advantage: Bhavsar 0.22


Overall

Advantage: Bhavsar .455

Picking Artemev would've ultimately meant that the USA men would've thrown Bhavsar's .8 advantage on rings over Spring in favor of Artemev's pommels, which for a hit set could score roughly 1.3 over Bhavsar. That leaves .5 in Artemev's advantage, but could USA seriously trust him to hit a pommels set that he hit one time out of four during the Olympic selection process in the ultimate pressure cooker of all, Olympic team finals? That would be a HUGE gamble. Artemev is so much better at pommels than Bhavsar that he could fall and score roughly the same as a cleanly hit routine for Bhavsar on that event. However, if Artemev were to fall in team finals than we would lose that .8 on rings, plus around .3 for vault and parallel bars, which totals to a 1.1 loss. Though Bhavsar is unspectacular at best at pommels, his reliable contribution on the other three apparatus, rings especially, is a much safer and smarter way to go when looking at all of the different ways this gap can get filled. While Paul Hamm is a devastating loss for this team, choosing Raj Bhavsar to fill in was indeed an intelligent choice for the U.S. men's team, whose medal aspirations will continue to burn alive when they kick off the competition as the first qualifying subdivision on August 9th, 2008.


He Kexin Age Debate-From Rumor to Media Firestorm

The accusations and rumors of the Chinese falsifying birthdates have produced an intense debate among the gymnastics world wide web ever since He Kexin starting winning world cup meets on uneven bars by skyscraper margins at the beginning of the year. However, it was just last week when the New York Times published an article on the subject matter, saying that Kexin, a favorite for uneven bars gold and Jiang Yuyuan, a top all-around gymnast, are indeed too young to rightfully compete in the 2008 Olympic Games. China, USA's top rival in the women's team final at the Olympics, apparently also had Yang Yun compete as an underage gymnast at the 2000 Olympics, where Yun won bronze with her team and individually on uneven bars. This has attracted the attention of the Karolyis, who commented in the NY Times article and stated that these girls are indeed underage. However, the Karolyis insist that there is nothing that can realistically be done to punish the Chinese or to prevent cases like this from happening in the future.

Falsifying ages of gymnasts is almost as synonymous with women's gymnastics as gymnasts falling off the beam. Cases of this have dated back to the 1980s, when the Soviet Union and Romania, the top two teams of the day, were later found out to have falsified countless gymnasts' birthdates to compete in world and/or Olympic competition. However, one of the most well-known and widely publicized age falsifying cases happened to a North Korean gymnast by the name of Kim Gwang Suk. Competing on the grand stage for the first time at the 1989 Worlds, Kim was competing as a "15" year-old when many believed she was 12 at the very oldest, likely more around 10. Kim's innovative uneven bars set was complete with two skills that would eventually bare her name. (straddled release move with a front flip into the bar, currently an F rated skill and a giant 1.5 to mixed grip, currently rated at a D) Kim's innovative bar set attracted attention at the '89 Worlds, but it would be two years later when she was rewarded with a gold medal and a perfect 10 at the 1991 Worlds for her daring display of athleticism on the bars. However, Kim was met with far more skepticism than congratulation after her Worlds win. Suk came to the 1992 Olympics as one of the favorites for uneven bar gold, all the while claiming to be 17 with missing front teeth and a tiny 4'4'' frame suggesting her age was anything but. Bela Karolyi thought Kim was underage, commenting famously "Her milk teeth are falling out, which is a good indication she's not even 11." The judges weren't convinced either, shutting Kim out of the medals when many believed her bars performance in event finals was worthy of at least a bronze.

Eventually, the North Korean team was banned from the 1993 Worlds, but Kim was allowed to keep her '91 World bars gold and all of the other medals she won. Now, in such a case where age falsification was proven, North Korea broke the rules and were caught. However, allowing Kim to keep all of her medals while technically an underage gymnast speaks volumes to the fact that while this age requirement is perhaps a good idea, it will ultimately never be followed by those with any chance to act otherwise (i.e. the Communist countries), because the consequences are meager at best. If the rule cannot be enforced, why is there such a rule in the first place? Several gymnasts admit afterwards (Goegan, Marinescu, and now Yang Yun being recent examples) that they were indeed underage to compete at the Olympics, in addition to other international meets such as the World Championships. Is there anything that can be done? You are doubtful to ever find either the FIG or IOC doing a damn thing in these kinds of scenarios, and things are unlikely to be any different this summer and beyond. The most we can realistically hope for is if the Chinese gymnasts' scores are lower than deserved.

The Olympic Games is where the best athletes from around the globe come together to compete for the glory of victory, and the pride of one's own sport and country. He Kexin is said by many to be the best bar worker in the world. So if she's the best, bloody let her compete without any of this age restriction nonsense. I can understand the FIG's worry for young athletes to compete in major events before they are mentally ready, but several cases have proven that young gymnasts can compete at an exceptionally high level and perform well to boot. Nadia Comaneci won the European AA title at the age of 13 and when on to score her seven perfect 10's at 14 at the 1976 Montreal Olympics. And of course we have the current case of United States figure skaters Mirai Nagasu, Rachael Flatt, and Caroline Zhang not being eligible to compete for the senior world championships when they are clearly USA's top 3 skaters at the moment, not the 3 ladies (Kimmie Meissner, Ashley Wagner, Bebe Liang) who we had to send to senior Worlds. Does that make sense? I think not. Nor does allowing the best bar worker in the world, who has hit EVERY bar set this year (including one in front of the Chinese president), be scrutinized for being too young when China will realize she is an asset to the team regardless of her age.

If China is willing to risk putting Kexin and Jiang Yuyaun (who was no slouch herself at last year's Worlds and has only gotten better at meets since then) on its Olympic team when there is a possibility of getting caught with "cheating," then these gymnasts have to be mentally and physically ready for the Games and have to be proven assets to the team. Those qualities are a requirement for any athlete wanting to compete in Beijing, and if the Chinese are gowing to all the trouble of falsifying birth dates to get these girls on the Olympic team, then that alone proves that their ability is most definitely worthy of competing at the Olympics. It should be up to those in charge to decide whether a gymnast is mentally and physically ready for the biggest competition of their life, not an age rule that is going to be broken anyway.

Ultimately, we are all different and the same is true for the athletes. One gymnast can peak at a very early age (which could prove to be the case of Kexin) and some athletes, Alicia Sacramone being an example, will end up peaking at a later stage of their career. And of course we have the inspirational Oksana Chusovitina looking better than ever at 33 and about to compete at her 5th Olympic Games. But to deny athletes who are early bloomers of competing at the biggest meet of their life is unfair in my opinion. I in no way support China's cheating, or anyone's cheating for that matter. However, I will be the first to say that He Kexin and Jiang Yuyuan are exceptional gymnasts that deserve to compete in the Olympic Games. They have the skills, polish, and they have proven that they are good competitors as well. In the case of another young Chinese gymnast who didn't make the team, Sui Lu, it was clearly too much too soon for her. However, the case differs per athlete, and some will reach their peak at a young age and some when they are older. So my final words are these: FIG, why keep a rule you cannot impose anyway, and why require several top gymnasts' dreams to be put in hold (or require cheating) when the Olympics is about the best in the world coming together to battle for the gold? I believe whole-heartedly that He Kexin and Jiang Yuyuan are too young, and I believe China is indeed cheating by letting them compete. But could you imagine an uneven bar final without He Kexin, an all-around final without Jiang Yuyuan, or a team final without either athlete playing major contributions to China's quest for gold? I certainly couldn't.

Tribute to Paul Hamm

Paul Hamm's relatively shocking announcement to take himself off the Olympic team could indeed be the end of this gymnast who did wonders for USA's success and kept viewers captivated over stunning gymnastics and stunning comebacks alike. The U.S. women's team was always the team that won the medals, got all of the attention, and attracted viewers to the sport of artistic gymnastics. The men's team never had such luck. After a team gold medal at the boycotted 1984 Olympic Games in Los Angeles, the U.S. men finished a dismal 11th in 1988. A 6th place would follow in 1992, and 5th have to do in 1996 and 2000. Through the years of John Roethlisberger and Blaine Wilson, the U.S. men could still never find their potential. Then all of a sudden came Paul Hamm, a cool head under pressure who had the entire package of difficulty and execution. Despite inconsistency at the 2000 Olympic Games and a missed shot at a world AA medal at the 2001 Worlds which resulted in a bloody nose as opposed to an intended podium finish, Paul staked his claim to the top at the 2003 World Championships, winning the AA over nemesis Yang Wei of China. Paul also helped the team win a silver medal, and was looking for even greater glory one year later in Athens.

August 18th, 2004. The USA men had won silver, a glorious result in comparison with past finishes. But the AA final was scheduled to be Paul Hamm's tonight. The scoreboard after three rotations read Paul Hamm's name at the top, with top rival Yang Wei not too far behind. Staring down the vaulting runway, Paul had done this vault several times in competition before and it wasn't of anyone's concern that he would perform it any differently. As he sprinted forward, disaster loomed. Suddenly, Paul found himself not standing on the blue mat in between the white lines, but sitting down inches away from the judges. The fall meant no gold, a medal of any color seemed out of the question. However, mistakes clawed their way into other gymnasts' routines, and all of a sudden Yang Wei was off the high bar. A door had been opened. With two events remaining, Paul nailed his parallel bar set like there was no tomorrow. Needing a 9.825 to get AA gold, Paul delivered a performance for the ages, and ended up as with the gold meal that a short 30 minutes earlier most would've considered improbable for Hamm to get, having to climb 11 spots after his disaster on the vault. But it was Paul Hamm who conquered the most impossible of tasks and ultimately got the job done.

On that night, I knew hardly anything about gymnastics, but I jumped up and down with excitement when I saw Paul Hamm's name plastered in the first place column on the scoreboard. But a short two days later, an incredible comeback would be marred by an incredible scandal. When all was said and done, Paul Hamm would remain the champion, but was now perceived by almost everyone in a different manner. Not an athlete who had one of the greatest Olympic comebacks in history, but an athlete who had slipped by a scoring error to win a gold that didn't belong to him. Three years later, Paul Hamm began a stunning comeback. Victories at the Winter Cup, American Cup, and the Pacific Rim suddenly made everyone realize that the Paul Hamm vs. Yang Wei rivalry would get one final chance on the sport's biggest stage after all.

Paul was in the best form of his life by the time Nationals came by, and a broken hand suffered in the last seconds of his parallel bars routine would prove to be the undoing of finally proving to be the world's best gymnast in Beijing, this time without debate or scandal. Paul Hamm withdrew his position from the team when realizing his contribution could not be utilized because of an ill-timed injury, a decision painting a picture far away from what many have said about Paul's supposedly arrogant demeanor. While Paul Hamm's Olympic aspirations have been fulfilled twice and his bid for a third Games will have to come to a close, at least for now. This paves the way for Raj Bhavsar to finally achieve his dream to become an Olympian after all of the turmoil of being an alternate in 2004 when many considered him worthy of making the team. And for me, that is bittersweet. Paul Hamm put the USA men back on the map for medals, and Hamm himself has certainly inspired more than a few people when it comes to coming back when all appears to be over. With Hamm, one should always expect the unexpected, and if he comes back to go for London 2012 as good as ever I honestly wouldn't be surprised. Who knew Wisconsin cheese created champions. Kidding, of course. But Paul Hamm has always amazed me, whether it was coming back after a fall on the vault to win the Olympic AA crown or looking in the best shape of his career after a 2 1/2 year break from gymnastics. And I seriously doubt that is the last we will be seeing of him, even if he is nowhere to be found in a gym.


That is all.

China Team Selection

Above: Deng Linlin appears to have gotten the much-anticipated 6th spot on the Chinese Women's Olympic Gymnastics Team

It is widely rumored, though not confirmed, that the Chinese Women's Olympic Gymnastics Team is as follows:

1. Cheng Fei
2. Yang Yilin
3. Jiang Yuyuan
4. He Kexin
5. Li Shanshan
6. Deng Linlin

Alternates

1. Xiao Sha
2. He Ning
3. Sui Lu

Apparently, PPP's health was felt by the Chinese coaches to be too much of a liability to the team. With that aside, if you read my earlier blog post on who should get the last spot for China I am definitely a tad bit disappointed, and surprised, to see Deng Linlin get the last spot. Even though I have great liking for Deng's gymnastics, I think the 6th girl needed to have good UB work to really help be there for China in an emergency, and to my knowledge Deng's UB is only adequate. Yang's FX work is definitely stronger than Deng, though in a pinch they can use Deng on that event in team finals if deemed necessary. It looks like the last spot really came down to beam, and it appears that China wants to use Deng to do BB in team finals instead of Yang, which would then mean Yang wouldn't have to do AA in team finals. That's actually a smart move on China's part, however in that scenario I would've actually taken a gamble and taken Xiao Sha for the last spot. Deng is a solid competitor, much more so than Sha, but she only has a couple of world cup meets and a scarcely-attended Chinese Nationals to her experience. And we shouldn't forget that she even suffered falls on beam and floor at the prelims of the Chinese Nationals which kept her out of event finals in both cases, so she is by no means a total rock in competition. Interestingly enough, I originally predicted Deng Linlin to be on the Olympic team, but after Chinese Nats I thought it was a no-brainer to switch my prediction after Sui Lu won beam and floor at those championships. Another classic example of why sticking to your first instinct comes in handy. Anyway, now that this appears to be China's Olympic team, I will do a BB outlook post and updated posts of the team, AA, and FX outlooks (I don't think there is any need for a VT or UB updated outlook posts, so I won't bother with those).


Also, Ukaraine's Olympic team has been announced:

1. Dariya Zgoba
2. Irina Krasnyanska
3. Alina Kozich
4. Valentina Holenkova
5. Marina Proskurina
6. Anastasia Koval

Alternate: Olga Scherbatykh


Official Schedule for the Camp

Wednesday, July 16th-Gurlies arrive, possible training?
Thursday, July 17th-Gurlies train
Friday, July 18th- AA competition for all, scheduled to start around 12:30
Saturday, July 19th- EF competition, every athlete does two events which either the gymnast or Martha K. decides which gymnast is competing what, scheduled to start around 5:30. Team selection should be announced late that night.
Sunday, July 20th- Announced team (and presumably the alternates?) appear and are interviewed on the Today Show

That is all.

And spot #6 goes to......... Part 2-China

It remains unknown when the Chinese will officially name their Olympic teams, for men and women, (though it is rumored to be within the next week) but since China is fully aware of the much-anticipated USA vs. China gymnastics showdown for the ages, they could end up waiting until after Martha K. announces the U.S. team so that China can plan their team accordingly. However, such tactics won't be at all necessary, as the U.S. team is pretty much set in stone as to who will go and who won't. Cheng Fei, Jiang Yuyuan, He Kexin, and Yang Yilin are locks for the Chinese team, and do to a surprising lack of depth on beam Li Shanshan should be named as the 5th girl regardless of how inconsistent she is. (she hit two relatively shaky, but clean, routines at the recent Barcelona World Cup which I think sealed the deal for her)Let's take a look at the line-ups of the Chinese women assuming Cheng, Yuyuan, Kexin, Yilin, and Shanshan are all on the Olympic team.


Vault

Prelims: Cheng, Yuyuan, Yilin, Kexin, Shanshan (?)

Finals: Cheng, Yuyuan, Yilin (Kexin if needed)

Outlook: The 5th vault girl is of little use to the Chinese team, as the lowest score in prelims is dropped and China making team finals is no worry at all. Shanshan competed a 1.5 yurchenko at the Shanghai Test Event (crashed completely) and has since been competing an FTY, and Pang Panpan has yet to show her DTY, which she hasn't competed since she missed the vault en route to giving the AA gold to Vanessa Ferrari at '06 Worlds. The 6th girl is not needed to fill any holes here.


Uneven Bars

Prelims: Kexin, Yilin, Yuyuan, ?, ?

Finals: Kexin, Yilin, Yuyuan, (Pang Panpan is capable of scoring higher than Yuyuan here)

Outlook: Kexin and Yilin are Olympic gold medal contenders on this event with 7.7 A-scores looking to crush any hope for American dominance in Olympic team finals. Jiang Yuyuan is a very solid 3rd bar worker, and while PPP can be used for that position there isn't a big difference between the general bars scores of the two gymnasts. However, if a bars specialist is to get injured what will China do? Shanshan is disgraceful to the Chinese on this apparatus, Fei doesn't even train bars, and if beam specialist Xiao Sha is to make the team she can contribute a decent, but unspectacular score here. This reason alone should guarantee both He Ning and PPP as alternate at bare minimum, but it remains to be seen whether China will take a potentially disastrous injury to a bars specialist in consideration when picking the last spot on the team.


Balance Beam

Prelims: Shanshan, Fei, Yilin, Yuyuan, ?

Finals: Shanshan, Fei, Yilin(?)

Outlook: Oddly enough, beam is China's weakest event and the one event where USA will look to make up what should be a solid deficit thanks to USA's weakness on UB. Li Shanshan is not as consistent a performer as one would like, but she is capable of getting a nice score even with a fall and given China's lack of BB depth the coaches have no choice but to send her. With Cheng Fei unlikely to get back her triple full dismount (which puts her A-score around 6.7) the big question remains on who will be the 3rd BB girl in team finals. The team should be satisfied enough to put Yang Yilin, a consistent but unspectacular performer on this apparatus. However, Xiao Sha and Sui Lu are capable of scoring much higher than Yang is, but than again both gymnasts are classic examples of "headcases," gymnasts with remarkable potential that cannot be consistent to save their lives.


Floor Exercise

Prelims: Fei, Yuyuan, Yilin, Shanshan, Kexin

Finals: Fei, Yuyuan, Yilin

Outlook: Floor Exercise is a relatively similar situation to the team as uneven bars is, because the team final line-up is quite strong but there is no back-up for the Chinese if one of these three girls is to go down with injury/illness/etc. prior to team finals. With Shanshan and Kexin adequate on this event at best, the 6th girl will need to have at least some skill on floor, which would help the Olympic case of someone like He Ning or Deng Linlin.


As of now, there appear to be six gymnasts with a possibility (some are remote however) to go to Beijing as the last gymnast named to the team. Let us take a look at what qualities each of these gymnasts brings to the table, and whether those qualities will interest the Chinese coaches when selecting the all-important Olympic team.


Xiao Sha

Pros: Xiao Sha is capable of a huge score on balance beam and hit beam during the pressure-packed team finals at last year's worlds after falling twice in prelims. Xiao is solid on the other three events, and can be used in team finals on VT, UB, or FX if an emergency is to occur.

Cons: Xiao is known for being extremely inconsistent on her money event, balance beam. One days she will hit like no other, while the next she will make a costly slip-up right before your eyes. With Yang Yilin having the potential for a 6.9 A-score, just .1 lower than Xiao's, it remains very questionable if the risk of taking Xiao will outweigh the reward.

Outlook: Yang Yilin's improvement on beam has likely meant game over for Xiao Sha's Olympic bid, but barring an administrative error she should still be kept as an alternate with a potentially strong beam score and decent routines on the other apparatus to be there for the Chinese to use if absolutely needed.


Sui Lu

Pros: Sui Lu won beam and floor at the Chinese Nationals, and was given extremely generous execution marks at those championships. A-scores of 7.1 on beam and 6.4 on floor will be hard to overlook when selecting the Olympic team.

Cons: Sui Lu's Olympic chances have melted considerably after disastrous performances at the Moscow World Cup and the French Nationals indicated nothing more than that Sui Lu cannot deal with the pressure of being in senior international meets. Amongst all the various rumors of the Chinese team selection, Sui Lu has been hardly mentioned as having any whisker of a possibility to become the 6th girl named to the team.

Outlook: I highly doubt after the Chinese Nationals that anyone in their right mind would think the Chinese would leave Sui Lu off the team. She seemed to have the entire package: high A-scores on events China needed her on, consistency, as well as good form and power to match. However, her performances at the two international assignments only showed the Chinese delegation all of the reasons they should not pick Sui Lu for the team, and those performances have not only been fatal to her Olympic bid but will also put stains on her reputation which has now become that of an unreliable competitor.


Pang PanPan

Pros: Pang PanPan is capable of higher UB scores than Jiang Yuyuan, the presumed lead-off bar worker for China in team finals. In addition to that, PPP is experienced and when healthy is capable of high-scoring work on beam and floor.

Cons: Unfortunately, PPP has been injured since helping the Chinese win team gold at the 2006 World Championships. These injuries likely cost her a chance to compete at the 2007 Worlds, and could very well do the same for her Olympic dream. It appears now that the only event PPP can really contribute is on uneven bars, and it can even be argued China doesn't need her there.

Outlook: PPP is generally scored favorably and her being able to outscore Yuyuan on UB should help her case out quite a bit. China is most in need of having UB back-up and PPP would be an ideal solution to this problem. However, injuries make it unlikely that she will return strong on VT, BB, and FX and be an ideal back-up gymnast on those apparatus. It will ultimately be a tough decision on China's part to risk a lack of BB or FX depth by sending a good UB gymnast to not only contribute a high mark to the team, but also an extra back-up bars girl (with PPP there would be four girls capable of high marks in team finals).


He Ning

Pros: He Ning is experienced and reliable and also a potential back-up gymnast to be used in team finals on UB, BB, or FX. He Ning was named to both the 2006 and 2007 World teams (the only athlete besides Cheng Fei to have competed on both world teams) while contributing far less than other teammates with actual routines performed in team finals. There have been various rumors that He Ning is indeed the 6th girl to be named to the team.

Cons: He Ning's capable scores on UB, BB, and FX, while solid, don't suggest the Chinese can't do without her in Beijing. Yang Yilin would be a much better option to compete BB in team finals, and in an emergency Ning isn't that much better on beam than Jiang Yuyuan, beam being Jiang's weakest event. If the Chinese delegation is indeed looking for another UB girl, PPP would be a somewhat better option just because of scoring potential. It is also worth noting that He Ning is the only serious contender for the team (besides Zhang Nan) that has not been sent to an international meet of any kind this year.

Outlook: He Ning's selection to the last two world teams means that she is politically favored, and strong performances from Chinese Nationals definitely helped her Olympic chances even if she has no international competitions to show for this year. He Ning is a solid back-up option on FX and UB especially, the events China is most in need of more depth. Though Ning originally seemed like a long shot, she provides a pretty strong case for herself to be named as the last girl to the team.


Deng Linlin

Pros: Deng is capable of high marks on vault, beam, and floor. A generally consistent competitor, she won both beam and floor at the Moscow World Cup which helps her case for having a good reputation with the international judges.

Cons: Deng's falls on beam and floor at the Chinese Nationals, which subsequently kept her out of event finals in both cases, definitely put a yield to Deng's Olympic chances, as did her mysterious pull-out of the French Nationals which she was scheduled to compete in. Yang Yilin's improvement on beam and floor makes her scores there equal or perhaps even higher than what Deng is capable of, and that reason, in addition to inexperience, look to make it unlikely Deng will be named as the 6th gymnast to the team.

Outlook: Though hardly a shoo-in for the last spot on the team, Deng's strengths on three apparatus make her ideal alternate material. A DTY vault and strong A-scores on beam and floor will be ideal to use if a substitution is needed, and while Deng lacks experience, she is a bit more consistent than Sui Lu and Xiao Sha and I personally think the Chinese would be idiotic to leave her off the team entirely.


Zhang Nan

Pros: Zhang Nan is the only athlete besides Cheng Fei with a legitimate chance at a second Olympic games. Her experience and prowess on beam is noteworthy, and won a bronze on beam at the Chinese Nationals ahead of Li Shanshan and Xiao Sha who suffered falls and finished behind Sui Lu, who looks to have little chance to make the team. Zhang has generally been scored favorably over the years by the judges, the most notable example being when she won Olympic AA bronze in Athens 2004 when Russian Anna Pavlova was felt by most to have put forth a superior effort in that meet.

Cons: Solid BB scores from Yang Yilin at recent meets (notably French Nationals AA final) provide little use for Zhang Nan to be named to the team. Li Shanshan and Xiao Sha are capable of higher marks than Zhang is, and the only reason Zhang would be named to the team would be for beam, which is likely far too little of a contribution than what China is looking for.

Outlook: The writing was on the wall when the coaches handed over the team captain duties that were formerly Zhang Nan's to Cheng Fei, and while Zhang Nan made an admirable comeback on beam at the Chinese Nationals, she simply brings too little to the table to be considered seriously for an Olympic birth.


Things To Be Considered When Naming This Team:

• As far as alternates and substitution for injured teammates is concerned, the delegation has 24 hours prior to the beginning of prelims to submit the team's final roster, which means NO SUBSTITUTION after that is allowed. This fact alone, if considered, should help He Ning or (especially) PPP's chances because Cheng Fei or Li Shanshan competing UB in team finals would be the laughing stock of the gymnastics world and someone like Xiao Sha or He Ning to compete there in TF would also open a big door for the United States team, which then would likely have a smaller UB deficit to China in that scenario.
  
• Xiao Sha seems to be incapable of hitting two clean beam sets in a row among qualifications and finals, whether it be a world cup meet or a national/world championship. So, if Xiao Sha is to get that 6th spot, if she hits in prelims than the Chinese should NOT use her in team finals, subbing in Yang Yilin to compete BB in TF instead. However, if she falls in prelims than China should select to her to compete BB in TF in a heartbeat, with past history making it a good indication she would hit and score highly.

• China's lack of depth on BB and FX s considerably less so than UB, which makes me think that the 6th girl should have at least an adequate, preferably very good, UB routine.

Let us take a look at the possible scenarios if one of the Chinese gymnasts is to get injured, assuming the team is Fei, Yuyuan, Kexin, Yilin, Shanshan, and Ning:

Cheng Fei
possible sub: Deng Linlin

VT: Yuyuan, Yilin, Kexin
UB: not affected
BB: Shanshan, Yilin, Linlin
FX: Yuyuan, Yilin, Linlin


Yang Yilin
possible subs: PPP/Linlin/Sha

VT: Fei, Yuyuan, Kexin
UB: Kexin, Yuyuan, Ning
BB: Shanshan, Fei, Linlin/Sha
FX: Fei, Yuyuan, Ning

He Kexin
possible subs: PPP

VT: Fei, Yuyuan, Yilin
UB: Yilin, Yuyuan, PPP
BB: not affected
FX: not affected


Jiang Yuyuan
possible subs: PPP

VT: Cheng, Yilin, Kexin
UB: Kexin, Yilin, Ning/PPP
BB: not affected
FX: Cheng, Yilin, Ning


Li Shanshan
possible subs: Linlin/Sha

VT/UB/FX: not affected
BB: Fei, Yilin, Linlin/Sha


He Ning

Not a first choice for being in team finals, but her good routines on bars and floor will likely make PPP the substitute if He Ning is to get injured, with Deng Linlin being a possibility as well.


Predicted Team

1. Cheng Fei
2. Yang Yilin
3. Jiang Yuyuan
4. He Kexin
5. Li Shanshan
6. He Ning

Alternates

1. Pang PanPan
2. Deng Linlin
3. Xiao Sha

China's possible decision to include Ning as the last girl at first would look like an unintelligent decision, but the more and more one analyzes He Ning's potential for the team she really would be the best pick for the last girl. Though unlikely to compete in team finals unless if someone is to get injured, Ning provides strong experience, consistency, leadership, and reliable work on uneven bars and floor exercise, which are the events China is most in need of back-up gymnasts. Ning would simply be an insurance policy to the team, but a good one at that. We shall see who gets the last spot for China, and I don't think I'm the only person who is putting their money down on He Ning to the get the final spot for China.


Next Post: Mediterranean Gym Cup Analysis

That is all.

Olympic UB Final Outlook

The apparatus final to watch at these summer Olympics in Beijing, China, is the women's uneven bars final. All of the medal contenders on this apparatus have been upgrading their uneven bar routines over the past year like crazy to provide you with a thrilling showdown between several different styles of bar work. Bars queen Svetlana Khorkina of Russia may have retired, but that doesn't mean you should miss this battle between gymnasts from countries such as China, USA, Russia, Great Britain, and even Romania and Germany likely to have athletes taking part in this final. Among all the apparatus finals being contested in the Olympics, the uneven bars final in Beijing is one event NOT to be missed.


Predicted Bars Finalists:

Marie Sophie-Hindermann (Germany)
He Kexin (China)
Nastia Liukin (USA)
Chellsie Memmel (USA)
Steliana Nistor (Romania)
Ksenia Semionova (Russia)
Elizabeth Tweddle (GBR)
Yang Yilin (China)


Predicted Reserves:

Anja Brinker (Germany)
Hong Su Jong (PRK)
Dariya Zgoba (Ukraine)


The Contenders (Note: The A-scores I have listed are for what athletes have either competed or have publicly stated that they plan on competing)


Marie-Sophie Hindermann (Germany)

Results: 2008 German Nationals-3rd place, 2008 Europeans-9th place(qualifying), 2007 Worlds-5th place

A-score: 7.3

Pros: Hindermann is appreciated for her very clean, correct style on the uneven bars. Form deductions that others suffer from do not apply to Hindermann, especially when it comes to not cowboying her double front dismount. Marie has upgraded her set to potentially .5 over where it was last year.

Cons: Hindermann is very consistent with NOT hitting her bar set. Hindermann would've challenged for the European title on bars earlier this year, but a failed dismount in prelims took away her chances of competing in the finals. She also had issues at the recent German Nationals, and only placed 3rd on this event in a competition she could've easily won.

Outlook: I predicted Hindermann would make bars finals because her A-score is higher than all of my predicted bars reserve gymnasts. Hindermann has yet to really put it all together on this event since last year's worlds. However, upgrades and good form could make Hindermann an outside medal threat at the Olympics if she hits her routine.


He Kexin (China)

Results: 2008 Chinese Nationals Bars Champion, 2008 Cottbus World Cup champion, 2008 Doha World Cup champion

A-score: 7.7 (rumored upgrades)

Pros: He Kexin is the solid favorite for uneven bars gold at these Olympics. Her consistency is remarkable, given the fact that she has yet to miss her extraordinarily difficult routine at a major competition. He Kexin's reliance on pirouettes is less so than her main rivals Nastia Liukin and Yang Yilin, which means there is less room for potential handstand deductions for Kexin. Stamina has not appeared to be an issue at all for Kexin's set, which is something that top bars challenger Liukin cannot say.

Cons: He Kexin's underage rumors could end up backfiring on the Chinese, with the judges having the option of giving a tight execution score to Kexin in order to prevent her from winning gold. Kexin withdrew from the recent Barcelona World Cup for reasons unknown, and also withdrew from the finals of the Tianjin World Cup due to "exhaustion." These recent occurrences could mean that Kexin is not as physically and mentally prepared for the Olympics as she would like.

Outlook: He Kexin has dominated bars throughout the entire year and will be tough to beat in Beijing. Consistency, lack of deductions, and incredible difficulty look to be the right combination for gold. The only things that are standing in the way are He Kexin dealing with the pressure herself and possible political disfavortism from the judges who are known to be relatively tight with the Chinese gymnasts' scores.


Nastia Liukin (USA)

Results: 2005-2008 USA Bars Champion, 2008 Pacific Rim-2nd place(tie), 2007 Worlds-2nd place, 2006 Worlds-2nd place, 2005 World Bars Champion

A-score: 7.7 (though unlikely, if Liukin connects Tkatchev + Pak she would have a maximum A-score of 7.9)

Pros: Nastia is a formidable challenger on this event because of her exquisite body line, good form and high difficulty. Nastia showed improvement in her bar work at the recent U.S. Nationals, especially when it came to hitting handstands. Judges are generally inclined to score tall girls favorably on this event, and Liukin is no exception. Nastia has also competed in three world bars finals, medaling in all of them, and her top rival He Kexin doesn't even have the experience of a world championship under her belt.

Cons: Nastia occurs deductions right off the bat for cowboyed form on her double front 1/2 dismount, in addition is usually a bit off handstand in her Ono 1.5 pirouette. Liukin has been struggling with maintaining her stamina throughout the routine and generally has less-than-desired landings on her dismount. Liukin has also been on the losing end twice during close bars races at the last two world championships.

Outlook: Nastia's #1 priority prior to the Olympics is cleaning up her dismount, which has about a .3 form deduction and additional deductions if she were to have a faulty landing. Liukin shouldn't be subject to another questionable loss of a bars gold medal, as the bars winners at the last two world championships (Elizabeth Tweddle and Ksenia Semionova) were from countries that had yet to win a medal in the competition. With Liukin's top rivals likely to be the two Chinese, Nastia shouldn't be subject to a loss due to the judges wanting to award the gold medal to someone who not from an especially dominant gymnastics nation. However, Nastia's scores and domestic and international competition have yet to match those of He Kexin, and might need a sizable error on her part to win the gold.


Chellsie Memmel (USA)

Results: 2008 U.S. Nationals-2nd place, 2006 Worlds-2nd place (qualifying), 2005 Worlds-2nd place, 2003 Co-World Bars Champion

A-score: 7.0 (stated it could be as high as 7.2)

Pros: Chellsie has strong uneven bar work and her competitive spirit has always made her a favorite of the international judges, which should continue due to the fact that Memmel has even upgraded since her shoulder injury of doom. Chellsie's extremely consistent bar work and amplitude with her releases are also assets to contend for a bars medal.

Cons: Even at top form, Chellsie is .5 behind the top A-scores on this event. This means that Chellsie would really need to rely on a big mistake from at least one of the top bars gymnasts to get a medal, and so far this year Kexin, Yilin, and Liukin have all looked pretty consistent on this event.

Outlook: Chellsie's upgrades make her a very likely candidate to get into bars finals, but medaling is a different story. However, Memmel's competitive nature would make her likely to do a great routine in bars finals and if another top challenger falls under the pressure Chellsie would be right there to snatch a spot on the podium. Because of a lower start score, any podium finish will likely come by default for Memmel, unfortunately.


Steliana Nistor (Romania)

Results: 2008 Europeans-2nd place, 2007 Worlds-6th place, 2006 Worlds-7th place

A-score: 7.3

Pros: Steliana is a very well-trained athlete, and in typical Romanian fashion can cover up a mistake like no other. Steliana is quick thinking enough to save any pirouette that is not completed and rearrange her routine accordingly. Steliana is also a very consistent gymnast, especially on this event, and often sticks her landings cold which is not something many other gymnasts can do here.

Cons: Steliana's form is something to be desired and at the Europeans in April she lost the bars title to Ksenia Semionova despite hitting the routine with a .3 A-score advantage over Semionova. Nistor also tends to suffer from deductions from missed handstands for her multiple pirouetting skills in her routine. Lagging behind Liukin, Yilin, Kexin, and others with her start value also doesn't help Nistor's bid for a bars medal.

Outlook: Steliana is a consistent gymnast but doesn't have the finest quality bar work like that of the other top bar workers. As a competitor she is a very reliable gymnast and is able to work through errors efficiently in her routine, but like Memmel a medal on bars for Nistor will likely come at the expense of other gymnasts' errors.


Ksenia Semionova (Russia)

Results: 2008 Moscow World Cup Bars Champion, 2008 European Bars Champion, 2007 World Bars Champion

A-score: 7.2 (potentially 7.6 if she connects tkatchev + 1.5 pirouette + jaegar but has yet to show this combo)

Pros: One of the lone bright spots for the Russian team in this entire quad, Ksenia has strong political favor from the eastern-bloc nations to score her well as one of their best hopes for an individual medal of any gymnastics event for the women. Ksenia is generally a consistent bars worker and could be a top challenger for UB gold if she adds the aformentioned connection, thus only putting her .1 behind Liukin, Kexin, and Yilin in terms of A-scores.

Cons: Ksenia has been noted to have a stock routine, i.e. a routine that really doesn't have anything truly original. Semionova suffers form deductions for her Deltchev release, as well as her piked double arabian dismount, the latter of which she is sometimes downgraded on because she tucks her legs in the second salto. Also, if Semionova were to not upgrade to the aformentioned combination (which she so far happens), her start value would be sizably behind the other top bars workers.

Outlook: Semionova's technique looks to make her capable of adding the 1.5 turn into an immediate jaegar, and the Russians should know that such an upgrade is necessary for a UB medal of any color. Still, Semionova's bar work might not be on par with Tweddle, Liukin, Yilin, and Kexin because of form and other deductions, however Semionova always seems to be scored favorably on this event in any major competition.


Elizabeth Tweddle (GBR)

Results: 2008 Europeans-4th place, 2007 Worlds-4th place, 2006 World Bars Champion, 2005 Worlds-3rd place, 2003 Worlds-3rd place

A-score: 7.4 (rumored upgrades)

Pros: Tweddle has a very consistent bars routine and has had the highest B-score at the last two world championship bars finals because of her good form and lack of handstand deductions (she is more reliant on releases than pirouettes). Tweddle has a very innovative bar routine and has her own element, a toe-on tkatchev 1/2, which she is hoping to have named after her. An upgraded start value of 7.4 and even more potential upgrades to come will boost Tweddle's bar medal chances considerably.

Cons: A failed connection between a toe-on tkatchev and a pak salto lost Tweddle a medal at last year's world championships. Beth has been inconsistent with getting her toe-on full prior to her dismount to the handstand, and also lost credit for her new release skill when she failed to make her straddle back to handtand afterward (though she has since changed the combo to an Ezhova transition). Tweddle has never finished lower than 4th in a world bars final, but all of these little errors seem to plague Beth in bars finals, as does an older body which tends to be more prone to injury.

Outlook: Everyone is thinking about the He Kexin vs. Nastia Liukin showdown, but don't count out Elizabeth Tweddle. She needs to upgrade from her already high 7.4 A-score about .2 to really be in the hunt and thus won't have to rely on other's mistakes to get on the podium. With Beth's good technique and experience she could go as far as taking everyone by surprise by winning gold, but she will need to be flawless in order to do so.


Yang Yilin (China)

Results: 2008 Tianjin World Cup Bars Champion, 2008 Chinese Nationals-2nd place, 2007 Worlds-3rd place

A-score: 7.7 (rumored upgrades)

Pros: Yang Yilin is an extremely consistent competitor who has upgraded her bar routine a whooping .7 in the last year and is currently competing her 7.7 A-score bar routine cleanly. Yang has excellent form and has a good combination of high release moves with beautiful pirouetting. Yang also won't have to deal with the pressure of her teammate, He Kexin, who will have to take far more pressure on her shoulders when competing in Olympic bars finals.

Cons: Yang Yilin was given relatively tight execution marks throughout the competition on bars at last year's worlds, and has yet to beat He Kexin on this event. Yang is not as much of a well-known name as Liukin, Kexin, Tweddle, and Semionova and thus judges might not be as inclined to score her highly. Like Liukin, Yang Yilin earns a lot of her start value in her pirouetting and a few missed handstands here and there will make the difference in such a tight field.

Outlook: Yang Yilin could be a huge surprise on this event, with the potential to upset the favorites and win the gold. However, judges will likely be more inclined to score Kexin and Liukin more favorably than Yilin, and Yang cannot afford any short handstands or dismount steps or hops if she wants gold. A medal is very possible on this event, but like Tweddle Yang will likely need close to a flawless routine if she is going for the top spot on the podium.


Reserve Athletes

Anja Brinker (Germany)- Has a 7.1 A-score and has a very clean and mostly consistent work on this apparatus, though an apparent fall at the recent German Nationals took her out of the medals there. However, I would say that if one of the above predicted bars finalists were to not make it to bars finals due to a fall/injury (mainly Hindermann because of her recent bars issues), I would predict Brinker to sneak in there if she hits her prelims routine.

Hong Su Jong (PRK)- Very consistent and clean bar worker, but as of last year's worlds only has a 6.6 A-score. I don't actually predict many upgrades for Su Jong on bars at the Olympics because of the Koreans likely turning their focus toward Su Jong's vault efforts.

Dariya Zgoba (Ukraine)- Zgoba is an excellent bar worker but it will be hard, though certainly possible, task to make it in to Olympic bars finals. Zgoba has a potential 7.0 A-score but often suffers from form deductions and (correct me if I'm wrong) a compostition deduction for standing on the low bar to transition to the high bar. I would predict Zgoba to get into bars finals if Hindermann and Brinker make mistakes, enough so that Zgoba could compete in the biggest meet of her career.


Predicted Podium:

Gold: He Kexin (China)

Silver: Yang Yilin (China)

Bronze: Nastia Liukin (USA)


With Kexin and Yilin more likely to upgrade than Liukin and with them being more consistent than Liukin, I do predict that these two Chinese girls will finish 1-2 and Nastia will have to settle for bronze. As far as Tweddle and Semionova are concerned, Tweddle I would actually predict to be battling for a medal more so than Semionova because of her experience, good execution and difficulty, and generally good scoring from the judges. Semionova's scoring favor will likely depend on whether Russia gets its team medal back that they so heartbreakingly lost last year. Even with a tkatchev + 1.5 turn immediate jaegar upgrade, I don't see Semionova being able to put together a competitive effort for the finals when she has yet to compete her full difficulty this year and with form that can be a big reason for deduction.

Next Post: USA/China Bubble Girls Analysis

That is all.

Quick Updates From the Gymnastics World

• Paul Hamm has officially broken his hand and has withdrawn from day two from the U.S. Nationals. This is too bad, and Paul has also bailed out of the Olympic Trials. Night one proved that USAG NEEDS Paul, and also his twin brother Morgan, in Beijing. Paul had a 3.7 lead in the AA, which means he could have theoretically fallen four times in finals and could have still won. Individually, Paul placed first on high bar, floor (tie with Morgan), and pommel horse. Morgan also placed first on vault. Obviously Paul should still be a lock for the team even with his hand injury, and USAG IS SCREWED if he is not healthy for the Games. I would have to say Morgan will be on the team, too, providin he keeps his strength up on floor and vault and further improves his pommel horse and high bar sets.
• A Chinese newspaper "revealed" that bars sensation He Kexin is 14, thus age-ineligible to go to the games. The article had several flaws, however, like Nastia Liukin winning three world beam titles (she's won two) and that an Olympic gymnastics team has five members (a team has six members). This provides further evidence that He Kexin is too young, but no hard proof. You would think China would be doing everything in their right mind to keep her supposed age-falsification a secret, so the fact that an admittedly unknowledgable writer let this slip is most surprising. Obviously, there is no mention of what age gymnasts must be to go the Olympic games in the article, but if this was indeed a careless error the author probably has no clue what kind of stir the number "14" is creating.
• Daria Joura easily leads the women's AA prelims at the Australian Nationals with an excellent 61.6 score. These scores look to be a tad inflated, but that score would've gotten Daria silver at last year's Worlds. The top AA podium threats appear to be (as of now) Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, and Jiang Yuyuan. However, Daria is improving and could end up peaking at the best possible time. Joura was especially superb on floor, where she marked a 15.75 and stuck her new double layout cold. Lauren Mitchell had a disastrous routine on bars and a shaky beam routine to drop to 5th. Finals are still to come, where Mitchell will look to redeem herself and Dasha will look to blow away the field.
• The Moscow World Cup will take place next week, and this is the last major international gymnastics meet prior to the Olympics. This will be an opportunity for Russia to showcase top-level gymnastics in hopes of gaining political ground on Romania for a bronze medal.
• Speaking of Olympic bronze medal, Peggy Liddick the Australian equivalent of Martha Karolyi, said that the Australian team is in it to win the bronze medal. This is an entirely biased and unrealistic statement; Romania and Russia have greatly improved since last year's worlds and the judges will have a hard time favoring a team that finished 11th last year and has lost potential assets like Hollie Dykes and Chloe Sims. If there is going to be an upset team for the medals, I would bet my money on Italy assuming Vanessa Ferrari is in peak form for the Games.
• I will be in attendance for the U.S. Classic Senior Women's competition tonight and the Senior Men's Championships Finals tomorrow evening. I will provide commentary for both events the day following each competition.

That is all.

Karolyi Meet and Tianjin World Cup Analysis

Two meets have happened just recently, the Karolyi International meet and the Tianjin World Cup. The Karolyi International meet provided glimpses as to who we will see on the U.S. team in Beijing, and who we won't. The Tianjin World Cup took place right after the Chinese Nationals, and went on despite the devastating earthquake that is affecting much of China.


Thoughts From Karolyi International Meet

• The internet has been awaiting with eager anticipation of Ivana Hong's upgrades. And we got................ none. Ivana won the AA at the Karolyi meet, but individually speaking she just doesn't bring much to the table. Ivana should've invested in either an Amanar upgrade or significant bar upgrades. Her UB A-score, 6.3, is the same as Shawn's, and her newfound strength on beam (15.8) doesn't help much either, with the fab 3 (Shawn, Nast, and A-Sac) sure to compete on that event in an olympic team final. Ivana looked more consistent with her routines, but this means nothing if they don't have the needed difficulty. Unlikely to be on the team, the U.S. may still need her as an alternate for good VT/BB work.


• Ashley Priess looks good, with UB scores ranging from 15.75-15.8. Priess should look to improving her A-score (6.6) by a tenth or two to give her the needed edge on that apparatus over Shayla Worley. Ashley will need to capitalize on her known consistency at Nats/Oly Trials/Karolyi Camp to get on the team, but it could happen. If Priess makes the team, she could be somewhat of an Annia Hatch presence at the Olympics as she only contributes majorly on one event.


• I don't know what to think about Chellsie Memmel's performance. She looked to be playing it safe in the AA, only scoring a 14.5 on bars (6.2 A-score). She only competed an FTY and scored a 15.35 on beam and a 14.55 on floor. Chellsie looked stronger on beam and floor at the Olympic Test Event and Toyota Cup meets she competed in at the closing of 2007, so I am guessing that these were watered-down routines due to the lack of importance of this event. In event finals, Memmel stunned all with a 16.0 in UB finals (6.9 A-score). All I can say is, where did that come from?


• Away from competition since 2007 Worlds, Alicia Sacramone looked strong. Despite rolling her ankle earlier in the year, Alicia vaulted a handspring Rudi vault with ease (15.65) and was solid on floor (15.25 AA/15.5 EF). She has upgraded her beam set to a potential A-score of 7.0, and scored a 16.15 in AA finals. This may have been a little inflated, but it shows that Alicia is fully ready to compete BB in team finals and can potentially make Olympic BB finals as well. This is even more bad news for Shayla Worley, as Martha K. probably will feel A-Sac will take care of the lead-off spot on BB in team finals with her upgrades over the potentialy high-scoring but inconsistent Shayla.


• Dark horse olympic threat Mattie Larson is improving, placing 4th AA and 2nd on FX. However, her lack of experience is unlikely to get her on the team but she might be wise to stick around on a potentially dominant USA team en route to London 2012.


• Darling Hill (BTW I much prefered Darlene as her first name) is unlikely to make the team. The internet has been abuzz with speculation of whether she could make the team, especially after her FX win at the Pacific Rim Championships. Her highest FX score was a 15.1 in event finals, but still only won the bronze. Injuries have kept her from upgrading to a DTY and competing uneven bars, one of her best events. Darlene will need to win floor at Nationals or Olympic Trials, with A-Sac and Shawn hitting. The probability of this scenario is low, and sadly I have to say the same for her Olympic chances.


• Martha K. and USAG should've let these girls compete at the U.S. Classic at Houston instead of creating this meet especially for them. USAG could've generated much greater revenue that way and the girls would experience even more of a competition-like atmosphere.


• Not much to report in terms of the international competitors; Paola Galante (ITA) placed a respectable 5th AA behind Hong, Priess, Memmel, and Larson. Alyssa Brown, the Canadian who had a horrific FX fall at the 2008 Scam Cup, won vault finals without A-Sac competing a second vault.

Tianjin World Cup

Vault

Gold: Cheng Fei (CHN)-Duh she won. Didn't compete either the Amanar or the Cheng, though she did do an apparently shaky Cheng (15.45) in the prelims. 14.975 average score.

Silver: Ksenia Afanasyeva (RUS)-Haven't heard much about her, but a silver on this event and a bronze on UB help out her Beijing cause greatly. 14.350 average score.

Bronze: Kristina Goryunova (RUS)-Like Afanasyeva, a late bloomer looking to peak at the right time. Competed solid A-score vaults, 5.8 and 5.2. 14.062 average score.

Other Notes: Elyse Hofner-Hibbs and Nansy Damianova finished 5th and 6th, respectively. They both earned above the required score to gain points to make the Olympic team, thus adding to my prediction that these two girls will be in Beijing and Kristina Vaculik will not.

Uneven Bars

Gold: Yang Yilin (CHN)- Getting better and better on this apparatus, and with a 7.7 A-score she could possibly win UB gold in Beijing. She definitely appears to be peaking at the right time. 16.925 score.

Silver: Elyse Hofner-Hibbs (CAN)-Competing a 6.8 A-score, but apparenty had an error and scored only a 15.35. This however is enough to earn her even more points to represent Canada in Beijing.

Bronze: Ksenia Afanasyeva (RUS)-Only a 6.1 A-score on this event and beat her compatriot Svetlana Klyukina, who finished 4th.

Other Notes: Daiane Dos Santos finished 6th with a 6.4 A-score. Koko Tsurumi of Japan and Vaculik apparently struggled and finished 7th and 8th, respectively.

Shock Horror: He Kexin won preliminaries with a whooping 17.2, the highest international score of any kind to date. However, she withdrew from finals due to "exhaustion." I don't think this is serious or that it will affect Kexin's spot on the Olympic team, but it could mean that she may be ill-prepared when it comes to dealing with the pressure of the Olympics and may be peaking too soon.

Balance Beam

Gold: Cheng Fei (China) Without the triple full dismount, Cheng's routine is worth a maximum of 6.7. It seems as though we won't see this dismount in Beijing (her 2.5 twist just barely got around in Tianjin), thus weakening her chances of making Olympic beam finals. Beam has looked a tad shaky from Cheng so far this year but her performance in event finals at this meet was strong even without the dismount. 15.925 score.

Silver: Kristina Goryunova (Russia)- A strong performance in a meet in China bodes well for her olympic chances, though the Russians probably still don't need her with European beam champions Semionova and Lozechko in tow. However, a 15.675 is hard to overlook.

Bronze: Irina Krasnianska (Ukaraine)- A 6.9 A-score means that Krasnianska is back and looks to be on the Ukranian Olympic team after being left off the European team in favor of Zgoba competing bars only. Krasnianksa had a steady set with a couple wobbles; slightly underscored 15.525.

Other Notes: Xiao Sha apparently fell in the beam final, finishing 4th after easily winning prelims. Xiao blew her last shot to make the team, and I am thus officially changing my Chinese Olympic Team prediction by replacing her with Li Shanshan.

Floor Exercise

Gold: Cheng Fei (CHN)- Cheng Fei only competed a 6.2 difficulty score here. 15.550 score.

Silver: Yang Yilin (CHN)- Like I mentioned earlier she is really improving her strength on the power events, thus greatly increasing her AA medal chances. 15.275 score.

Bronze: Kristina Goryunova (RUS)- Another good showing from this unknown Russian. 14.400 score

Other Notes: Daiane dos Santos is STILL struggling on floor and I have many doubts as to whether she will have her full difficulty back for Beijing. She may be pacing herself, but she will certainly need a few competitions prior to the Olympics to get her full difficulty consistent. Finished 4th here with a 14.375.

Other News-Olympic Draw

The Chinese women drew the worst qualifying position imaginable for them, competing in the first subdivision and starting on the balance beam. China's consistency has improved, but it will take a lot of good preparation on China's part to do well while competing in this most undesirable position. China's first subdivision can make politically biased judges have an "excuse" to mark down the Chinese girls as they are known to do. Romania competes in the first subdivision, but starts on vault. The U.S. competes in the 2nd subdivision, which is just fine for them. However, ending on balance beam will be a tough task, but the girls performed very well while starting on beam at the 2007 Worlds. Russia competes in the 3rd subdivision, thus giving the team more opportunity for coveted event finals spots. Japan, Great Britain, and Italy will compete in the 2nd subdivision, which puts all of these teams at some risk for making team finals even though Italy should qualify barring a disastrous performance. Germany, Ukaraine, and Australia will compete in the 3rd subdivision. Brazil and France will compete in the last subdivision, providing these two bubble teams a huge advantage to make team finals and win AA and event finals spots as well. At this point I expect all the finalists at the 2007 Worlds-team finals to compete in team finals in Beijing, though I am predicting that Australia will steal Great Britain's former spot in qualifying for that competition.

Also, check out the Martha Karolyi interview at Inside Gymnastics. I was pretty dissapointed at Martha K's lack of knowledge of what is going on outside the U.S. You would think someone coming from an ex-Communist country would be tempted to follow the rest of the world's every move. After all, Chinese head coach Lu Shanzhen commented to International Gymnast Magazine how she is eagerly awaiting the U.S. Nationals and how they upgraded He Kexin's UB routine (and presumably Yang Yilin's also) to 7.7 start values after seeing that Nastia Liukin had this start value in her arsenal. What is she doing at the ranch all that time that she is not pushing zee gurlies to zee limit? She even referred to He Kexin as "some Chinese girl." And apparently she just heard that Kexin has a 7.7 A-score on bars, like Liukin. Well guess what, Martha? Double the pleasure, Yang Yilin now has a 7.7 UB A-score too. However, I was happy that she wasn't quick to point out that the U.S. is the huge favorite for team gold or anything like that.

One final note: Giulyx14 reported that Carlotta Giovannini (ITA) is planning on upgrading to an Amanar and also plans on adding an extra hald-twist to her 2nd vault, thus making it a RO 1/2 on tucked Rudi off vault. These upgrades, if done successfully, will boost Giovannini's vault medal chances considerably.

Next Post: Olympic FX Finals Outlook

That is all.