Women's Podium Training Session-China and Romania

Whether it is to add a perspective and knowledge on things or to provide commentary if NBCOlympics doesn't work for you, I will be doing my own "quick hits" tonight on my blog for the podium training session#1, featuring medal contending teams China and Romania.

9:59 EST Gymnasts are marching out.

10:02 China is warming-up on beam, Romania on vault. The event order of the podium training session will be the same as the actual team prelims.

10:06 Yang Yilin had a fall on her front aerial+side aerial combo, hit that combo perfectly while Chinese were warming up. Otherwise a good set.

10:09 Deng Linlin, excellent beam set aside from a low dismount landing on her double pike.

10:11 Li Shanshan had an exceptional beam set, though did have a low chest and one step on her double pike. No Y-scale turn.

10:15 Cheng Fei went before Deng Linlin and had a very solid set as well, awkward landing on her 2.5 dismount, however. Jiang Yuyuan fell on her back tuck+sheep jump (fall looked savable) and was off alignment on her Ruflova. Odd how Yuyuan went last on this event, her weakest. Yilin just hit her front aerial+side aerial perfectly.

10:19 Nistor was very distraught after doing her vault (which NBC didn't show). Bela Karolyi is in the stands, talking to the media. China is done with beam.

10:22 First rotation is concluded.

10:24 Romania is moving to bars, China to floor. Not surprisingly, He Kexin is not doing floor and didn't do beam.

10:33 Deng Linlin was listed as "He Kexin." LOL Took a step on double arabian, underotated triple turn, and also underotated her 2.5 twist at the end of her combo pass.

10:37 Yang Yilin, could've gone OOB on her first pass (view was obstructed but it looked like she went out), triple twist was possibly short of rotation and had low landings on her combination pass and finishing double pike. This definitely was not her best routine here.

10:40 Jiang Yuyuan, very good tumbling and expression. Had a low double pike and an underotated triple turn but otherwise flawless.

10:42 Cheng Fei, has switched her routine around and put piked full-in for her second pass, whip+triple for her 3rd, and 2.5 twist to dismount. If I am not mistaken I believe that puts her routine at a 6.6 A-score, the same as Shawn Johnson. Really excellent set, chest was low on her double-double (as it normally is) and whip+triple full was a tad off but Cheng looks like she is in fine shape for these Olympic Games.

10:44 China put Li Shanshan last on floor, don't know why they're putting their weak links last in the lineup and whether they will do that come time preliminaries. Rotation 2 has concluded.

10:49 DTY from Deng Linlin with one step, did another one later that was almost identical. As expected, Shanshan is sitting this event out.

10:55 Showed parts of Nistor and Izbasa's beam routines and they looked good, minus a very dropped back (even more so than I remembered it being) on Nistor's "Nistor." Two good Amanars from Cheng Fei, remember she hasn't even tried the Amanar all year long. Yuyuan did another Amanar, but with a big step to the side and was possibly a smidget underotated.

11:02 Cheng Fei just landed on her knees on her Cheng vault attempt, first major mistake from her during this entire podium training session.

11:04 Cheng Fei did her Cheng again, much improved. Had one hop and piked down the last half twist of the vault, and a low chest on landing. Very solid vault though, definitely still the prime favorite for vault gold.

11:05 Gymnasts marching to final piece of apparatus, which for China is uneven bars.

11:09 Deng Linlin crashed her piked jaegar, and had several missed handstands. Great laidout full-twisting double back dismount.

11:12 He Kexin did some skills include her jaegar1/2+jaegar combo, and her 1.5 pirouette into her tucked full-in dismount. Step on the landing but looked excellent as always.

11:15 Full set from Deng Linlin, very low dismount. Hit the jaegar she missed earlier but broke form. Had several missed handstands. In the event that China would have to use Linlin to do UB in TF a door would come flinging open for the United States.

11:17 Yuyuan crashed her jaegar, otherwise a good set. Falls on beam and bars for Yuyuan in this podium training session are a bit unusual for this generally consistent gymnast.

11:20 Yang Yilin had a low landing on her dismount and failed to go over the bar one of her pirouettes, Yang too has looked a tad off her game the entire night.

11:23 Excellent set from He Kexin, small hop on landing and had a loss of swing on her shoot transition to the high bar.

11:24 Yuyuan made her jaegar afterwards without issue, but went over on a stalder1/2 on the low bar and had to let go of the bar and do it again. Yuyuan also had a step forward on her double layout dismount.

11:25 Saw Izbasa and the last two tumbling lines of her routine (1.5 twist+rudi and triple twist). Looked a tad sluggish, and triple twist was underotated and had some crossed legs as well.

11:30 He Kexin went back and did another bar routine. Did an even better routine complete with a stuck dismount. Almost overarched a low bar handstand, however, but this girl is so bloody consistent it will be a tall order for anyone to beat her in uneven bar finals.

11:33 This now concludes the women's podium training session for subdivision one. Most of the footage was on China, and here are my comments on each member of the team.

Cheng Fei: She is peaking at the right time, enough said. Excellent on her three apparatus; she is going to be tough to beat for floor and vault finals. Did indeed go for the 6.6 A-score on FX, and with Johnson playing with fire on some of her skills (whip+triple twist in particular) and Izbasa looking a bit shaky, Cheng could indeed be the one to beat on that apparatus. A fall on her first Cheng vault is a tad alarming, but she did her second one just fine so I don't think it is much of a cause for concern. Balance beam looked very solid as well and has wisely stuck with her 2.5 dismount.

Yang Yilin: Did not see her DTY, but looked hot and cold throughout the training. Had a fall on beam, several landing issues on floor and had a couple problems on uneven bars as well, especially with not making it over the bar on that one pirouette that I mentioned previously. Is probably just working out the kinks with a lot of these elements, as she is generally a very solid competitor under pressure.

Jiang Yuyuan: FX looked great, but was shaky elsewhere. Her Amanar vault may have been a tad short of rotation, and she did step sideways and over the line as well. Uneven bars she had two major errors on, her jaegar being one and her stalder1/2 on the low bar (which she did in a separate routine) being the other. Balance beam looked very confident and then all of a sudden was off the beam on her back tuck+sheep jump. Some very uncharacteristic errors in this session from Yuyuan, but like Fei and Yilin, Jiang Yuyuan generally does best under pressure.

He Kexin: Will not be doing BB and FX, which we knew all along. Did not see her DTY but UB looked fabulous as always.

Li Shanshan: Interesting how China put their weak link last on every apparatus, and for Shanshan that was bars and floor. Looked OK, not great, on those apparatus. Her balance beam, on the other hand, was stunning. Truly a master of that event, however her sheep jump form could've been better and the same can be said for her dismount landing. With that said, the rest of that routine was spot on and I think if she were to repeat that podium training session BB set she would have BB gold pretty much locked up.

Deng Linlin: China's decision to take Linlin primarily for beam looks to be paying off, Deng had a great routine with few wobbles in sight. Also hit two nice DTY's, and while her floor was decent I believe China will shy away from wanting to use her there in team finals, and the same can definitely be said for bars. Had some issues with uneven bars as I mentioned previously, but otherwise performed well.


Overall: Obviously China has no plans to peak in this prelims session, however what is interesting with China is that they are not dealing with any of the jet lag and time-change issues that the other teams have so what we saw tonight should be a good indication of what we're going to see in prelims. The team looked very solid, however Yilin and Yuyuan in particular had some issues here and there. I didn't notice any upgrades with the exception of Cheng Fei's floor routine. China is pretty set with all of their team final lineups in terms of being competitive with the USA and all of the other teams. While I would say this team will be tough to beat, I wouldn't say they are unbeatable.

That is all.

China Team Selection

Above: Deng Linlin appears to have gotten the much-anticipated 6th spot on the Chinese Women's Olympic Gymnastics Team

It is widely rumored, though not confirmed, that the Chinese Women's Olympic Gymnastics Team is as follows:

1. Cheng Fei
2. Yang Yilin
3. Jiang Yuyuan
4. He Kexin
5. Li Shanshan
6. Deng Linlin

Alternates

1. Xiao Sha
2. He Ning
3. Sui Lu

Apparently, PPP's health was felt by the Chinese coaches to be too much of a liability to the team. With that aside, if you read my earlier blog post on who should get the last spot for China I am definitely a tad bit disappointed, and surprised, to see Deng Linlin get the last spot. Even though I have great liking for Deng's gymnastics, I think the 6th girl needed to have good UB work to really help be there for China in an emergency, and to my knowledge Deng's UB is only adequate. Yang's FX work is definitely stronger than Deng, though in a pinch they can use Deng on that event in team finals if deemed necessary. It looks like the last spot really came down to beam, and it appears that China wants to use Deng to do BB in team finals instead of Yang, which would then mean Yang wouldn't have to do AA in team finals. That's actually a smart move on China's part, however in that scenario I would've actually taken a gamble and taken Xiao Sha for the last spot. Deng is a solid competitor, much more so than Sha, but she only has a couple of world cup meets and a scarcely-attended Chinese Nationals to her experience. And we shouldn't forget that she even suffered falls on beam and floor at the prelims of the Chinese Nationals which kept her out of event finals in both cases, so she is by no means a total rock in competition. Interestingly enough, I originally predicted Deng Linlin to be on the Olympic team, but after Chinese Nats I thought it was a no-brainer to switch my prediction after Sui Lu won beam and floor at those championships. Another classic example of why sticking to your first instinct comes in handy. Anyway, now that this appears to be China's Olympic team, I will do a BB outlook post and updated posts of the team, AA, and FX outlooks (I don't think there is any need for a VT or UB updated outlook posts, so I won't bother with those).


Also, Ukaraine's Olympic team has been announced:

1. Dariya Zgoba
2. Irina Krasnyanska
3. Alina Kozich
4. Valentina Holenkova
5. Marina Proskurina
6. Anastasia Koval

Alternate: Olga Scherbatykh


Official Schedule for the Camp

Wednesday, July 16th-Gurlies arrive, possible training?
Thursday, July 17th-Gurlies train
Friday, July 18th- AA competition for all, scheduled to start around 12:30
Saturday, July 19th- EF competition, every athlete does two events which either the gymnast or Martha K. decides which gymnast is competing what, scheduled to start around 5:30. Team selection should be announced late that night.
Sunday, July 20th- Announced team (and presumably the alternates?) appear and are interviewed on the Today Show

That is all.

And spot #6 goes to......... Part 2-China

It remains unknown when the Chinese will officially name their Olympic teams, for men and women, (though it is rumored to be within the next week) but since China is fully aware of the much-anticipated USA vs. China gymnastics showdown for the ages, they could end up waiting until after Martha K. announces the U.S. team so that China can plan their team accordingly. However, such tactics won't be at all necessary, as the U.S. team is pretty much set in stone as to who will go and who won't. Cheng Fei, Jiang Yuyuan, He Kexin, and Yang Yilin are locks for the Chinese team, and do to a surprising lack of depth on beam Li Shanshan should be named as the 5th girl regardless of how inconsistent she is. (she hit two relatively shaky, but clean, routines at the recent Barcelona World Cup which I think sealed the deal for her)Let's take a look at the line-ups of the Chinese women assuming Cheng, Yuyuan, Kexin, Yilin, and Shanshan are all on the Olympic team.


Vault

Prelims: Cheng, Yuyuan, Yilin, Kexin, Shanshan (?)

Finals: Cheng, Yuyuan, Yilin (Kexin if needed)

Outlook: The 5th vault girl is of little use to the Chinese team, as the lowest score in prelims is dropped and China making team finals is no worry at all. Shanshan competed a 1.5 yurchenko at the Shanghai Test Event (crashed completely) and has since been competing an FTY, and Pang Panpan has yet to show her DTY, which she hasn't competed since she missed the vault en route to giving the AA gold to Vanessa Ferrari at '06 Worlds. The 6th girl is not needed to fill any holes here.


Uneven Bars

Prelims: Kexin, Yilin, Yuyuan, ?, ?

Finals: Kexin, Yilin, Yuyuan, (Pang Panpan is capable of scoring higher than Yuyuan here)

Outlook: Kexin and Yilin are Olympic gold medal contenders on this event with 7.7 A-scores looking to crush any hope for American dominance in Olympic team finals. Jiang Yuyuan is a very solid 3rd bar worker, and while PPP can be used for that position there isn't a big difference between the general bars scores of the two gymnasts. However, if a bars specialist is to get injured what will China do? Shanshan is disgraceful to the Chinese on this apparatus, Fei doesn't even train bars, and if beam specialist Xiao Sha is to make the team she can contribute a decent, but unspectacular score here. This reason alone should guarantee both He Ning and PPP as alternate at bare minimum, but it remains to be seen whether China will take a potentially disastrous injury to a bars specialist in consideration when picking the last spot on the team.


Balance Beam

Prelims: Shanshan, Fei, Yilin, Yuyuan, ?

Finals: Shanshan, Fei, Yilin(?)

Outlook: Oddly enough, beam is China's weakest event and the one event where USA will look to make up what should be a solid deficit thanks to USA's weakness on UB. Li Shanshan is not as consistent a performer as one would like, but she is capable of getting a nice score even with a fall and given China's lack of BB depth the coaches have no choice but to send her. With Cheng Fei unlikely to get back her triple full dismount (which puts her A-score around 6.7) the big question remains on who will be the 3rd BB girl in team finals. The team should be satisfied enough to put Yang Yilin, a consistent but unspectacular performer on this apparatus. However, Xiao Sha and Sui Lu are capable of scoring much higher than Yang is, but than again both gymnasts are classic examples of "headcases," gymnasts with remarkable potential that cannot be consistent to save their lives.


Floor Exercise

Prelims: Fei, Yuyuan, Yilin, Shanshan, Kexin

Finals: Fei, Yuyuan, Yilin

Outlook: Floor Exercise is a relatively similar situation to the team as uneven bars is, because the team final line-up is quite strong but there is no back-up for the Chinese if one of these three girls is to go down with injury/illness/etc. prior to team finals. With Shanshan and Kexin adequate on this event at best, the 6th girl will need to have at least some skill on floor, which would help the Olympic case of someone like He Ning or Deng Linlin.


As of now, there appear to be six gymnasts with a possibility (some are remote however) to go to Beijing as the last gymnast named to the team. Let us take a look at what qualities each of these gymnasts brings to the table, and whether those qualities will interest the Chinese coaches when selecting the all-important Olympic team.


Xiao Sha

Pros: Xiao Sha is capable of a huge score on balance beam and hit beam during the pressure-packed team finals at last year's worlds after falling twice in prelims. Xiao is solid on the other three events, and can be used in team finals on VT, UB, or FX if an emergency is to occur.

Cons: Xiao is known for being extremely inconsistent on her money event, balance beam. One days she will hit like no other, while the next she will make a costly slip-up right before your eyes. With Yang Yilin having the potential for a 6.9 A-score, just .1 lower than Xiao's, it remains very questionable if the risk of taking Xiao will outweigh the reward.

Outlook: Yang Yilin's improvement on beam has likely meant game over for Xiao Sha's Olympic bid, but barring an administrative error she should still be kept as an alternate with a potentially strong beam score and decent routines on the other apparatus to be there for the Chinese to use if absolutely needed.


Sui Lu

Pros: Sui Lu won beam and floor at the Chinese Nationals, and was given extremely generous execution marks at those championships. A-scores of 7.1 on beam and 6.4 on floor will be hard to overlook when selecting the Olympic team.

Cons: Sui Lu's Olympic chances have melted considerably after disastrous performances at the Moscow World Cup and the French Nationals indicated nothing more than that Sui Lu cannot deal with the pressure of being in senior international meets. Amongst all the various rumors of the Chinese team selection, Sui Lu has been hardly mentioned as having any whisker of a possibility to become the 6th girl named to the team.

Outlook: I highly doubt after the Chinese Nationals that anyone in their right mind would think the Chinese would leave Sui Lu off the team. She seemed to have the entire package: high A-scores on events China needed her on, consistency, as well as good form and power to match. However, her performances at the two international assignments only showed the Chinese delegation all of the reasons they should not pick Sui Lu for the team, and those performances have not only been fatal to her Olympic bid but will also put stains on her reputation which has now become that of an unreliable competitor.


Pang PanPan

Pros: Pang PanPan is capable of higher UB scores than Jiang Yuyuan, the presumed lead-off bar worker for China in team finals. In addition to that, PPP is experienced and when healthy is capable of high-scoring work on beam and floor.

Cons: Unfortunately, PPP has been injured since helping the Chinese win team gold at the 2006 World Championships. These injuries likely cost her a chance to compete at the 2007 Worlds, and could very well do the same for her Olympic dream. It appears now that the only event PPP can really contribute is on uneven bars, and it can even be argued China doesn't need her there.

Outlook: PPP is generally scored favorably and her being able to outscore Yuyuan on UB should help her case out quite a bit. China is most in need of having UB back-up and PPP would be an ideal solution to this problem. However, injuries make it unlikely that she will return strong on VT, BB, and FX and be an ideal back-up gymnast on those apparatus. It will ultimately be a tough decision on China's part to risk a lack of BB or FX depth by sending a good UB gymnast to not only contribute a high mark to the team, but also an extra back-up bars girl (with PPP there would be four girls capable of high marks in team finals).


He Ning

Pros: He Ning is experienced and reliable and also a potential back-up gymnast to be used in team finals on UB, BB, or FX. He Ning was named to both the 2006 and 2007 World teams (the only athlete besides Cheng Fei to have competed on both world teams) while contributing far less than other teammates with actual routines performed in team finals. There have been various rumors that He Ning is indeed the 6th girl to be named to the team.

Cons: He Ning's capable scores on UB, BB, and FX, while solid, don't suggest the Chinese can't do without her in Beijing. Yang Yilin would be a much better option to compete BB in team finals, and in an emergency Ning isn't that much better on beam than Jiang Yuyuan, beam being Jiang's weakest event. If the Chinese delegation is indeed looking for another UB girl, PPP would be a somewhat better option just because of scoring potential. It is also worth noting that He Ning is the only serious contender for the team (besides Zhang Nan) that has not been sent to an international meet of any kind this year.

Outlook: He Ning's selection to the last two world teams means that she is politically favored, and strong performances from Chinese Nationals definitely helped her Olympic chances even if she has no international competitions to show for this year. He Ning is a solid back-up option on FX and UB especially, the events China is most in need of more depth. Though Ning originally seemed like a long shot, she provides a pretty strong case for herself to be named as the last girl to the team.


Deng Linlin

Pros: Deng is capable of high marks on vault, beam, and floor. A generally consistent competitor, she won both beam and floor at the Moscow World Cup which helps her case for having a good reputation with the international judges.

Cons: Deng's falls on beam and floor at the Chinese Nationals, which subsequently kept her out of event finals in both cases, definitely put a yield to Deng's Olympic chances, as did her mysterious pull-out of the French Nationals which she was scheduled to compete in. Yang Yilin's improvement on beam and floor makes her scores there equal or perhaps even higher than what Deng is capable of, and that reason, in addition to inexperience, look to make it unlikely Deng will be named as the 6th gymnast to the team.

Outlook: Though hardly a shoo-in for the last spot on the team, Deng's strengths on three apparatus make her ideal alternate material. A DTY vault and strong A-scores on beam and floor will be ideal to use if a substitution is needed, and while Deng lacks experience, she is a bit more consistent than Sui Lu and Xiao Sha and I personally think the Chinese would be idiotic to leave her off the team entirely.


Zhang Nan

Pros: Zhang Nan is the only athlete besides Cheng Fei with a legitimate chance at a second Olympic games. Her experience and prowess on beam is noteworthy, and won a bronze on beam at the Chinese Nationals ahead of Li Shanshan and Xiao Sha who suffered falls and finished behind Sui Lu, who looks to have little chance to make the team. Zhang has generally been scored favorably over the years by the judges, the most notable example being when she won Olympic AA bronze in Athens 2004 when Russian Anna Pavlova was felt by most to have put forth a superior effort in that meet.

Cons: Solid BB scores from Yang Yilin at recent meets (notably French Nationals AA final) provide little use for Zhang Nan to be named to the team. Li Shanshan and Xiao Sha are capable of higher marks than Zhang is, and the only reason Zhang would be named to the team would be for beam, which is likely far too little of a contribution than what China is looking for.

Outlook: The writing was on the wall when the coaches handed over the team captain duties that were formerly Zhang Nan's to Cheng Fei, and while Zhang Nan made an admirable comeback on beam at the Chinese Nationals, she simply brings too little to the table to be considered seriously for an Olympic birth.


Things To Be Considered When Naming This Team:

• As far as alternates and substitution for injured teammates is concerned, the delegation has 24 hours prior to the beginning of prelims to submit the team's final roster, which means NO SUBSTITUTION after that is allowed. This fact alone, if considered, should help He Ning or (especially) PPP's chances because Cheng Fei or Li Shanshan competing UB in team finals would be the laughing stock of the gymnastics world and someone like Xiao Sha or He Ning to compete there in TF would also open a big door for the United States team, which then would likely have a smaller UB deficit to China in that scenario.
  
• Xiao Sha seems to be incapable of hitting two clean beam sets in a row among qualifications and finals, whether it be a world cup meet or a national/world championship. So, if Xiao Sha is to get that 6th spot, if she hits in prelims than the Chinese should NOT use her in team finals, subbing in Yang Yilin to compete BB in TF instead. However, if she falls in prelims than China should select to her to compete BB in TF in a heartbeat, with past history making it a good indication she would hit and score highly.

• China's lack of depth on BB and FX s considerably less so than UB, which makes me think that the 6th girl should have at least an adequate, preferably very good, UB routine.

Let us take a look at the possible scenarios if one of the Chinese gymnasts is to get injured, assuming the team is Fei, Yuyuan, Kexin, Yilin, Shanshan, and Ning:

Cheng Fei
possible sub: Deng Linlin

VT: Yuyuan, Yilin, Kexin
UB: not affected
BB: Shanshan, Yilin, Linlin
FX: Yuyuan, Yilin, Linlin


Yang Yilin
possible subs: PPP/Linlin/Sha

VT: Fei, Yuyuan, Kexin
UB: Kexin, Yuyuan, Ning
BB: Shanshan, Fei, Linlin/Sha
FX: Fei, Yuyuan, Ning

He Kexin
possible subs: PPP

VT: Fei, Yuyuan, Yilin
UB: Yilin, Yuyuan, PPP
BB: not affected
FX: not affected


Jiang Yuyuan
possible subs: PPP

VT: Cheng, Yilin, Kexin
UB: Kexin, Yilin, Ning/PPP
BB: not affected
FX: Cheng, Yilin, Ning


Li Shanshan
possible subs: Linlin/Sha

VT/UB/FX: not affected
BB: Fei, Yilin, Linlin/Sha


He Ning

Not a first choice for being in team finals, but her good routines on bars and floor will likely make PPP the substitute if He Ning is to get injured, with Deng Linlin being a possibility as well.


Predicted Team

1. Cheng Fei
2. Yang Yilin
3. Jiang Yuyuan
4. He Kexin
5. Li Shanshan
6. He Ning

Alternates

1. Pang PanPan
2. Deng Linlin
3. Xiao Sha

China's possible decision to include Ning as the last girl at first would look like an unintelligent decision, but the more and more one analyzes He Ning's potential for the team she really would be the best pick for the last girl. Though unlikely to compete in team finals unless if someone is to get injured, Ning provides strong experience, consistency, leadership, and reliable work on uneven bars and floor exercise, which are the events China is most in need of back-up gymnasts. Ning would simply be an insurance policy to the team, but a good one at that. We shall see who gets the last spot for China, and I don't think I'm the only person who is putting their money down on He Ning to the get the final spot for China.


Next Post: Mediterranean Gym Cup Analysis

That is all.

Bubble Girls Analysis

I have previously done my analysis posts on the team outlooks of both China and USA, and I will do a final analysis on the bubble girls of China and USA and how they could impact the outcome of the team result in the upcoming Olympics. On both teams there appear to be four locks, with two gymnasts to decide from among many prospective Olympic hopefuls in both China and the USA. Let's take a look at what holes these two teams have, what the bubble girls can and cannot contribute to the team, and how they concern things like start values and consistency.

USA

Locks: Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, Chellsie Memmel, Alicia Sacramone

Team Final Line-Up

Vault: Sacramone, Johnson, ?

Uneven Bars: Liukin, Memmel, ?

Balance Beam: Johnson, Liukin, Sacramone/Memmel

Floor Exercise: Johnson, Sacramone, ? (possibly Memmel or even Liukin)

Bubble Girls:

Samantha Peszek-VT, FX

Bridget Sloan-UB, possibly FX and VT if knee is fully recovered

Shayla Worley-UB, BB if USA absolutely needs her

Jana Bieger-UB/FX

Ivana Hong-VT/BB/UB if USA absolutely needs her

Mattie Larson-VT/FX if upgrades come on floor

Britney Ranzy- VT (if Amanar shows up at trials)

At this point, I don't expect anyone outside of this list to even have a chance at being an alternate. The UB postition looks to be a battle between two gymnasts, Bridget Sloan and Shayla Worley. Sloan looks to have the edge at this point because of her strong showing at Nationals (3rd place), though various reports have said that Shayla is up and running on bars and her Nats withdrawal was merely a precaution for her health. However, I would still pick Sloan because of her consistency, good execution and the fact that she also competed in the Beijing arena during the Olympic Test Event in November 2007 and performed very consistently. Reliability is something that Martha K. certainly should be looking for when selecting the team, after all Terin Humphrey was picked in '04 largely because of her cool head under pressure. The last spot is where everyone else (besides Sloan/Worley) is gunning for, and will be the most difficult to decide of all. Let's take a look:

Samantha Peszek

Pros: Good political favor, has a pretty solid DTY and a 6.4 A-score on floor, in addition to great improvement on UB and BB.

Cons: Showing inconsistency with her two necessary events to make the squad on, and form and artistry that is something to be desired on every event.

Outlook: If Peszek solely focused her efforts on either having an Amanar or an excellent floor routine, I would say she would be a shoo-in for the team. However, Sam has not been intelligent with what she needs to focus on to make the Olympic team. It also kind of shocks me that Martha K. didn't stop her from upgrading on bars and beam in hopes of being an AA gymnast, but rather stressing to Sam that the team would need her most on the two events she is strong at. Martha's mystifying choices to send many girls to Olympic Trials with little or no little chance to go are likely to be in direct response to Sam P.'s up-and-down performance at Nats on floor exercise especially. I would say Sam still has a spot on the team, but she better watch out if Britney Ranzy shows up to Philly with an Amanar.

Mattie Larson

Pros: Good, consistent work on floor and vault, not to mention great execution and artistry on floor that the international judges should appreciate.

Cons: Little international experience, low-balled on vault at nationals, lower start value on floor than some of the other floor specialists (6.1 A).

Outlook: Larson looks to be the top rival of Sam P. for the last spot on the team, but I frankly don't see it happening. Her DTY is good, but not something the U.S. can't do without, especially considering the fact that it is untested on a major international stage. With Memmel looking to be the 3rd floor worker on the team, I don't think Larson has much to contribute there unless if her rumored upgrades materialize and are done successfully at the trials. Peszek still looks to be better than Larson on vault, ragged form and all, but Mattie may just hear her name called as an alternate.

Jana Bieger

Pros: Jana has a 6.4 A-score on floor and placed 4th at Nats on uneven bars. Experience and consistency are two of Jana's biggest assets.

Cons: Jana was not scored favorably at this year's Nationals and doesn't look to have scores that the team can't do without. Several form issues on bars and floor degrade her B-score right off the bat, and Jana was shaky on floor on both days of competition, which is her #1 event in terms of importance to make the team.

Outlook: Jana looks to be an alternate unless if injuries are to take several key gymnasts out of the picture entirely. Good strength on bars and floor, plus good consistency, make Jana a good plug-in gymnast if a key performer is to go down. However, Jana's tremendous form deductions leave no room for error, and that is something the U.S. will look to not risk in Beijing.

Ivana Hong

Pros: Hong's good form and experience of competing at last year's worlds are assets to make the squad. Her lack of a glaringly weak event makes her a capable plug-in gymnast on any piece of apparatus.

Cons: Finishing 9th on vault at Nats does not help Ivana's Olympic chances out in the least. Ivana is far too much of a loose cannon to be fired out onto the floor during USA's battle with China, and lack of an individual strength makes her not a necessary commodity for the team.

Outlook: Ivana can still wind up as an alternate if she performs well on vault at trials, but she appears to have a slim chance of even doing that. USA will likely take Jana over Ivana because of Jana's consistency and added strength on floor, Sloan/Worley because of their strength on bars, and if a third alternate is to be picked than Mattie Larson looks to get that position with good VT/FX work. Ivana simply doesn't give the U.S. anything that they don't already have.

Britney Ranzy

Pros: Britney had the 3rd highest vault score at Nats and is said to be planning an Amanar at trials.

Cons: Britney is untested internationally and up until this Amanar rumor no one even thought of her having as much as a remote possibility to go to Beijing. Without an Amanar, there is unlikely to be any use of Ranzy even as an alternate.

Outlook: Ranzy's Amanar could picture an entirely different team outlook than the selection committee had planned on overseeing. If it is clean and consistent at trials and at selection camp, than the USA could actually pick her as the other three events would look to be covered by the other five girls. However, the likelihood of viewers seeing Ranzy's Amanar, let alone her landing it, is lofty at best. Ranzy, with the exception of injury, has nothing to lose to try the vault if she is indeed training it.

As I see it, Peszek still looks to have the 6th spot provided that Ranzy doesn't come to trials with a landed Amanar, or if Larson gets 3rd on floor exercise, like she did at Nats. If Memmel or even Liukin takes 3rd on floor at trials, than USA already has that position filled and all we need then would be a vault specialist. Ranzy could very well get it IF her Amanar is consistent, but Peszek looks to get that spot because she is a potential plug-in girl on any other event if the USA needs her there.

China

Locks: Cheng Fei, He Kexin, Yang Yilin, Jiang Yuyuan

Team Final Line-Up

Vault: Fei, Yuyuan, Kexin/Yilin

Uneven Bars: Kexin, Yilin, Yuyuan

Balance Beam: Fei, ?, ?

Floor Exercise: Fei, Yuyuan, ? (possibly Yilin)

Bubble Girls:

Deng Linlin-BB, VT and FX if China needs her

Sui Lu-BB, FX

Zhang Nan-BB

Pang PanPan- UB

Xiao Sha-BB

Li Shanshan-BB

China is most in need of two beam specialists, possibly another floor spot if they don't think Yang Yilin is "good enough", and a backup bars worker in case something disastrous happens to any of the three bars workers mentioned above.

Deng Linlin

Pros: Winning beam and floor gold ahead of Sui Lu at the recent Moscow World Cup helps out Deng's Olympic bid. Linlin is generally a consistent competitor who gets solid scores on the events China needs her on.

Cons: Linlin is really more alternate material to the team. The only event they need her on is balance beam, and even there she suffered a fall during the prelims of the Chinese Nationals, thus failing to make event finals.

Outlook: Linlin's strengths on vault and floor really aren't needed, but her balance beam could be. Deng is overall more consistent than beam specialists Xiao Sha and Li Shanshan, but the Chinese may still not use her because of her lower scoring potential. I would predict Deng to be an alternate at this point because of her general consistency and ability to fill a hole while not being an event specialist, which is what the Chinese appear to really be looking for.

Sui Lu

Pros: Sui has the capability of scoring very high on beam and floor, two routines that China would certainly like to use in its quest to beat the United States. Winning Chinese Nationals on those two events and also being scored extremely favorably should mean that Sui is being pushed by the coaches to go to Beijing.

Cons: Sui's meltdown in prelims of the Moscow Russian Cup, her first major international meet, does not bode well for her Olympic chances. In addition to that, the judges were strict in marking Sui in the beam finals for a couple of missed connections and ended up missing the gold on that event by about .4 to Linlin. Sui's inexperience is a huge gamble for China to risk going to Beijing, with the results being either stunning or disastrous.

Outlook: The Chinese can still send Sui Lu with Xiao Sha suffering from falls at both the Chinese Nationals and Tianjin World Cup. Sui should outscore with Yang Yilin with a hit routine, but the Chinese can count on Yang to hit whereas Sui is much more questionable. Still, with the inconsistency coming from Shanshan and Sha on beam, I think they will still risk sending Sui and her high A-scores to the Games because the Chinese are the types that will go all out to win, they are simply not going to go clean and conservative at home.

Zhang Nan

Pros: Zhang Nan has been a rock for the Chinese team on balance beam, posting their top score on that event at the 2006 Worlds when China won its first world title. Zhang is much more experienced than Shanshan, Sha, and Sui combind and the Chinese would look to trust her more than anyone to hit in a team final.

Cons: Zhang Nan has a .5 lower start value on beam than Shanshan, and has performed poorly since the 2006 Worlds. Zhang Nan is only a one-event athlete, and has not been selected to compete in any world cup meets this past year.

Outlook: Zhang Nan showed improvement at the Chinese Nationals, winning the bronze on the beam. However, the fact that Zhang Nan was not sent to a world cup meet at all this year basically means that the Chinese aren't interested. Too bad, because Zhang Nan is the consistent, experienced gymnast making a comeback who I would bet to HIT in team finals when I really can't the same for Li Shanshan, Sui Lu, and Xiao Sha.

Pang PanPan

Pros: With Cheng Fei and the possibility of Li Shanshan, Xiao Sha, Sui Lu, or even Zhang Nan means that China will have no backup on bars in team finals if something catastrophic is to happen to Kexin, Yilin, or Yuyuan. Triple P got bronze at Chinese Nats ahead of Jiang, just prompting that the Chinese might go as far as to trust her with competing UB in team finals. Triple P is also experienced and well-favored internationally amongst the judges.

Cons: Triple P does not contribute much besides bars, and China is much more likely to resort putting two beam specialists on the final two spots for the team when China already has an arsenal of three great bars workers. Triple P also wasn't at the top of her game at the Moscow World Cup, which was important for Triple P because it was the only World Cup meet she had the opportunity to compete this year.

Outlook: Triple P looks to be a relatively unlikely candidate for the team, but keeping her on as an alternate is imperative if one of China's top three bars workers is unable to compete. However, Triple P has really very little contribution on the balance beam, as she failed to make event finals at the Chinese Nationals on that event.

Xiao Sha

Pros: Xiao is a textbook beam worker and hit in the team finals of last year's world championships after falling twice in the prelims. Sha is capable of scoring 16+ easily on that event and is a legitimate backup on any event if China were to absolutely need her.

Cons: Xiao is very inconsistent and suffered falls at the event finals of the recent Chinese Nationals and the Tianjin World Cup. Sha's A-score is only .2 ahead of Zhang Nan, and that is probably not worth the risk when .8 is on the line with a fall.

Outlook: Xiao's beam is too inconsistent for the Chinese to seriously consider sending her to Beijing, and her scores on the other three events aren't necessary unless if China were to suffer multiple injuries prior to the Games. Since Xiao's A-score is .3 lower than that of Li Shanshan, who are basically the two beam specialists battling it out for one spot that all of a sudden looks to be going to Shanshan.

Li Shanshan

Pros: Li Shanshan won the silver medal on balance beam at last year's worlds with a fall and recently won the Barcelona World Cup on balance beam and took out her split-leg full turn for an easier 90 degree leg-up full turn which actually has the same value as the aforementioned skill. Li Shanshan's start value of 7.3 is the highest being done on balance beam in the world.

Cons: Inconsistency, including falls at Chinese Nationals and the Cottbus Cup. Shanshan contributes little besides beam, and gave a golden opportunity to the USA women when she fell out of bounds at last year's worlds in the team final.

Outlook: Hit beam routines in prelims and finals at the recent Barcelona World Cup look to seal the deal for Shanshan's Olympic bid. China will look to use a great team final score for her balance beam, and it should be at least mid-15 even with a fall. My only question is: Why didn't Shanshan take out the godforsaken split-leg full turn which cost her not one, but two major beam titles (Chinese Nats/Worlds) when the comparatively easier 90 degree leg-up full turn is worth the same?

So, this was just a quick little analysis on the bubble girls and what they contribute to China and USA prior to the final Olympic trials of both nations. If I were to pick today, I would say Samantha Peszek and Bridget Sloan are the bubble girls whose bubbles will not burst, and as for China I would say the same for Sui Lu and Li Shanshan.

That is all.

Chinese Nationals Event Finals and Karolyi Ranch Update

International Gymnast magazine has failed me in not bringing up the official event finals results of the 2008 Chinese Nationals. I do, however, have most of the podium finishers thanks to fanbutterfly from you tube.

UPDATE: Ha! Literally right after I finished writing this post International Gymnast Magazine had posted an article about the Chinese Nationals.


Vault

Gold: Cheng Fei (nice Yurchenko double, solid Cheng 15.812 Average Score)

Silver: Deng Shaojie (never heard of this girl, vaulted a handspring Rudi and Tsuk Double! Poor form and somewhat shaky landings, however)

Bronze: Deng Linlin (Yurchenko double and handspring pike-front 1/2, clean landings but lacks height and second vault is too weak to qualify for an Olympic vault final)

Uneven Bars

Gold: He Kexin (Duh she won. However, she over arched her low bar handstand a little bit, shock horror, but otherwise very solid 17.325)

Silver: Yang Yilin (I believe a 7.7 A-score! A couple missed handstands but very good-16.725)

Bronze: Pang Panpan (A couple form breaks and "only" a 7.1 A-score but beating Yuyuan in bars finals improves Panpan's Olympic chances ever so slightly-16.475)

Note: Sui Lu fell twice in her bar routine during event finals

Balance Beam

Gold: Sui Lu (7.0 A-score, two wobbles and a sizable step on the dismount. A 16.575?! These Chinese judges put even the Scam Cup judges to shame when it comes to the outrageous over scoring of home gymnasts.)

Silver: Guo Wei 16.500/6.9 A-score

Bronze: Zhang Nan 16.300/6.8 A-score (Good for her! However, her scoring potential is lower than that of Shanshan and Sha, and thus she still likely won't be on the team)

Other Notes: Li Shanshan hit everything in her beam routine except the godforsaken 180 degree leg-up full turn, which she fell on AGAIN. Xiao Sha fell on her two-foot layout acro series and finished 8th.

Floor Exercise

Gold: Cheng Fei (Cheng competed her tucked double-double with a bit of a low landing. Everything else was fine, adding a 2.5 twist in place of her usual double to bump up her A-mark to a 6.5. Adding a piked full-in to the end of the routine should take place at the Olympic FX event final, adding her A-score to perhaps a record-high 6.6. Cheng needs to watch out, though, because the added difficulty is known to backfire, as it did at the 2007 Worlds FX event final. Got a 16.2 with a 9.7 execution score; don't worry this score was very generous as well.

Gold: Sui Lu (I don't know why the Chinese judges like this girl so much. Her difficulty is good, yes, but she lacks elegance and her salutes at the end of her tumbling passes do not suggest any grandness or artistry like the other Chinese girls. I also noticed some crossed legs on her twists and flexed feet on her Barani on beam, though all in all she still has excellent form like all the Chinese. She takes full-advantage of combination passes on floor to rack up points. On the other hand, her triple turn on floor was excellent and could probably do a quadruple. Outrageous 9.8 execution score.

Bronze: Yang Yilin (15.675-6.2 A-score. Yang has improved greatly on the power events and can be a potential back-up on this event during team finals.)

Other Notes: Jiang Yuyuan had several issues, including an OOB on her last pass. Her expression is beautiful but she should switch her music immediately; it's far too childish.

Rumors from the Karolyi Ranch Meet

Difficulty plus Execution reports that Ivana Hong won the AA at the Karolyi Friendly Meet, ahead of Ashley Priess and Chellsie Memmel. No word on who hit what, but Northernriver reported that Priess is rumored to have a 7.0 A-score on UB. Gymnastics and Stuff also reported another rumored 7.0 A-score from Memmel on UB. Two 7.0 A-scores will help the U.S. narrow its UB deficit on China, with bars being China's strongest event. If Hong won, this hopefully means that her UB work has improved to the point where the U.S. could really use her score at Beijing. I'd much rather send Chellsie, or even Ashley, ahead of Ivana because of Ivana's inconsistency and inexperience. With Bridget being rumored to have a 6.7 A-score on UB, it is beginning to look more and more like Shayla Worley will be left off the team. Shayla brings on potentially great scores on UB and BB, but her inconsistency is something to be desired. Shayla looked injured and lacked her usual spark and confidence at the 2008 American Cup, which was probably severed when Sam P. came out of nowhere to get 3rd ahead of her. Addicted2Gym reports that Shayla left the camp because she is still battling with injuries. While much of these A-scores and points I am making are still rumors, Martha K. may end up feeling that Shayla is not needed for the team in favor of a perhaps better UB specialist, like Ashley. However, if Shayla recovers strong for Nats and Oly Trials she should still be on the team, so I won't change my prediction there.

Which Brings Me To..............

I am officially changing my Chinese Olympic Team Outlook by replacing Deng Linlin with Sui Lu. I think Sui Lu is somewhat of a trickster, but it is no doubt the Chinese judges and coaches love her and will put her on the team regardless of her alarming lack of experience. Deng is a good all-arounder, but her inconsistency and not being absolutely strong on one event look to do the trick to keep her off the Olympic team. Sui's high A-scores are just what China needs, but I suspect Sui's lack of experience and elegance will hurt her somewhat in the scoring at the Olympics. Pang Panpan is closing in on Xiao Sha/Li Shanshan's battle for the specialist spot with Shanshan and Sha counting falls in event finals. However Sha still looks to have a spot on the team in my book because of her being sent to the Tianjin World Cup along with Fei, Kexin, and Yilin. The Chinese coaches are giving her this spot to the world cup meet because of them somewhat believing in her and also because she has one last chance to prove to the coaches that she belongs on the Olympic team.

Next Post: Olympic Vault Final Outlook

That is all.

Chinese Gymnastics Championships and Tidbits from the Gymnastics World

Above: The Chinese are looking for their gymnasts to dominate all at the Olympics. It looks like gymnastics spectators will see lots of images of the Chinese flag at the medal ceremonies in Beijing.

The Chinese National Gymnastics Championships are going on right now, with event finals still to take place. The Chinese women are looking stronger by the minute and the reports from the recent Karolyi camp that gymnasticsbabie from the addicted2gym blog posted were not overly promising. China is oddly putting their nationals very early in the run towards the Olympics. China has made several administration errors in the past which have detracted the team's potential, both in terms of politics and consistency. Choosing their best Olympic team ever too early is not a wise task for a team so determined to get gold. Whether there will be a Chinese Olympic trials after this I do not know, but if anyone does know please leave a comment. The Chinese gymnasts are looking great, but they may peak at the wrong time.

Thoughts from the Chinese Nationals (team + AA finals)

• Gymnastics is a sport Chinese take huge pride in, and yet I didn't see a single person in the stands during "team finals". As a dancer, I know performing in front of hundreds, sometimes thousands of people is a hell of a lot different than just rehearsing in front of a few people. Though I've never had to flip down a 4-inch wide beam, dealing with nerves and pressure is historically China's weakness, and ability alone is not going to get them gold if they can't block out the pressure.


• Last year at the Chinese Nationals, the judges gave severely low scores to the girls. However, this year the judges are going all out with ridiculously high scores that rival the scores of the Scam Cup. China is clearly trying to prove the world that they are the best at all costs, and the USA judges are likely to respond with super high scores at their Nationals. Expect scores at the Olympics to be similar to that of last year's Worlds: generous but not overly generous.


• I'm very happy Jiang Yuyuan won the AA with a 63.3. Scores at Scam for Liukin (63.425) and Johnson (63.1 with a fall) were perhaps a bit more generous than those of the Chinese Nationals, but not much. This proves that Jiang is capable of even winning the AA on a good day, but the judges will likely boost up the scores of Johnson, Liukin, and Ferrari/Nistor more than those of Jiang. This will be especially true if China wins the team final.


• Yang Yilin has a 7.7 A-score on UB! AAAAAAAH! The Chinese are going all out in the upgrade department, and Yang managed a generous 15.95 in the AA final even with a fall on UB. This cost her the Chinese AA title, but Yang has come back strong from her Cottbus injury and is improving greatly towards her hope of an AA medal. However, her under-the-radar placements and lack of personality will not make the AA final judges vote in her favor.


• Cheng Fei's new FX music doesn't suit her at all, and I frankly don't think Cheng is going to win FX gold in Beijing. (her tumbling in team finals was relatively weak) Cheng is a polished, but inexpressive dancer, and the more dramatic flamenco-like routine she had for what seemed like ages suited her more appropriately, as did her Don Quixote routine at the '04 Olympics. With that said, Cheng looked strong on vault and beam and has made event finals (obviously) on those three events.


• He Kexin has yet to miss her UB set. She's on the team for sure, but will she respond readily to the intense Olympic pressure? At this point I have serious doubts about her age.


• Zhou Zhuoru made UB finals, but not FX finals. Her floor exercise, set to the music of "Politics at Work" from the Jackie Chan movie "The Myth," is filled with drama and emotion. In my opinion, Zhou's choreography on floor is some of the best I've seen in this entire quadrennium, though sadly I can't say the same for her relatively weak tumbling.


• Zhang Nan has improved, but I still don't believe she will make the Olympic team.


• Li Shanshan hit an outstanding beam routine in team finals, closing in on Xiao Sha's apparent hold on the final specialist spot on the team. However, Shanshan needs another great routine in event finals to potentially go to the Olympics.


• Deng Linlin was very shaky in team finals, falling on beam and floor. However, she came back to place 3rd in the AA.


• Sui Lu is looking good and the Chinese coaches may feel her high A-scores are enough for the team.


• China's outstanding difficulty has the potential to kill any hopes for the USA girls to win. However, this great difficulty can lead to injury, inconsistency, and not being able to peak at the right time. China's administrative errors are likely to continue, now that the whole world is watching them.


• Event finals will be taking place shortly. Go to International Gymnast magazine's site to see the official list of qualifiers.

Other Tidbits from the Gymnastics World

• Addicted2Gym and Gymnastics and Stuff posted thoughts on the recent events of the Karolyi training camp competition; I advise you to check them out.


• Japan named their Olympic teams. Women: Kyoko Oshima, Miki Uemura, Yu Minobe, Koko Tsurumi, Yoko Shintake, Mayu Kuroda. '92 Chinese Olympian He Xuemei's Olympic comeback was unsuccessful. On the men's side, reigning World AA bronze medalist Hisashi Mizutori failed to make the team with a 17th place (!) finish at the Japanese Nationals. Apparently, he has a severe shoulder injury, but if he is indeed recovered by the time Beijing comes around the Japanese will be slapping themselves in the face with their unquestionably early team selections.


• The Russian men defeated current World bronze medalist Germany at the Europeans in Laussaune. An apparent resurgence for the Russian men is bad news for Germany and USA's quest for an Olympic team medal.


• Martha Karolyi has invited several USA national team members who have yet to compete this year to a "friendly" (i.e. not much pressure) international meet at the Karolyi ranch. Among them are Chellsie Memmel, Alicia Sacramone, Ivana Hong, Darlene Hill (the Inside Gymnastics article called her "Darling Hill" UPDATE: Darlene has officially gone back to her birthname of "Darling"), Ashley Priess, and age-eligible juniors Mattie Larson and Corrie Lothrop. This meet was created so that Martha K. can look at these bubble girls and see what shape they're in and begin deciding who will go to Beijing (if she already hasn't LOL). Athletes from Italy, Germany and Canada are scheduled to take part. Italy is unlikely to send Ferrari, but Germany may send some of their top girls. I would love to see Marie-Sophie Hindermann again, she's one of my favorites from the German team because of her smile, excellent body line, and good form on her double front UB dismount. (She doesn't cowboy her legs! YAY!)

Opinion of the Day

Samantha Peszek should stop screwing around with uneven bars upgrades in favor of doing the Amanar. Sam looks to have enough height and power to do a Yurchenko 2.5 twist but there was no word from the recent camp that she was doing it. UB upgrades aren't neccessary, despite the fact that the national team staff is frantically trying to get girls that can swing bars. Sam P. ain't bad on bars, but she has yet to outscore Shawn Johnson. Peszek showed improvement on every event at the 2008 Scam Cup, finishing 3rd AA. However, Peszek needs to maximize her strength (vault) for the good of the USA team. Sam even being aloud to compete AA at the olympics is unlikely, but if Sam is really training an Amanar and successfully lands it at Nationals/Olympic Trials than I will be extremely happy for her. However, if Peszek comes to compete with a DTY and decent UB work than she has obviously not been intelligent with specifically what she can contribute to the team.

Interesting Note: Darling Hill trains at Will-Moor School of Gymnastics, the same gym Jennifer Sey went to before and after training at Parkettes.

Next Post: Chinese Nationals Event Finals Analysis

That is all.

Chinese Women's Team Selection Outlook

above: The Chinese women celebrating after winning their first team gold at the 2006 World championships. The Chinese hope to win their first Olympic team gold at the 2008 Beijing games.

China has prepared full force to be at top form for the 2008 Beijing Olympics, where the pride of a nation will be most at stake during the women's team final. Yes, the men are likely to win gold on their home turf. But for the women, a first-ever U.S. vs. China battle is set to take place between the two frenemies, and China as a nation will likely see this as one of the big ticket events of the games, as well as an event to potentially show that they could be the world's leading superpower. China will have its best shot in history to win a women's team gold medal on their home turf. Like the United States, the Chinese women are very deep. To my count, their are 14 women with a legitimate shot at competing in the Olympics, but as the clock ticks down it is becoming more and more clear as to who we will see representing China come August.

Gymnasts with a legitimate shot at making the Olympics:

Cheng Fei

He Kexin

Deng Linlin

Sui Lu

Zhang Nan

He Ning

Pang Panpan

Xiao Sha

Li Shanshan

Li Ya

Fan Ye

Yang Yilin

Jiang Yuyuan

Zhou Zhouru

Cheng Fei

Brief Bio: Cheng Fei competed at the 2004 Olympics and barely missed meddling on the floor exercise. Cheng has since won three world vault titles, a world floor exercise title, and several world cup titles as well. She has been undefeated on vault for the entire quadrennium.

Pros: China's 3-event star is needed for her potential for extremely high scores on vault, beam, and floor to offset high marks on the power events from the U.S. girls. Her experience is the most of any Chinese gymnast, competing in an Olympic games and three world championships. She was recently elected team captain, almost providing her a guarantee that she will be in Beijing.

Cons: Cheng was inconsistent at the last world championships, suffering a fall on a crucial vault en route to China losing its team gold medal. Cheng is one of the oldest Chinese gymnasts, and thus she could be more prone to injury. Cheng has even stated that she feels her skills have reached a peak and that she is worried that the other girls will catch up to her on the power events.

Outlook: Barring a major injury, Cheng is going to her 2nd Olympics, this time with LOTS more pressure. Her strength on the power events is needed to lessen the USA's potential scoring advantage on vault and floor. Cheng is known for her strong work ethic and also ability to pace herself, which should enable her to come to the games healthy and fully prepared to win gold.

He Kexin

Brief Bio: Kexin was hardly known by anyone in the gymnastics community outside of China in 2007, but in 'o8 everyone and their mom has surely heard and seen her incredible UB work. She trounced the field to win gold on the uneven bars at both the Doha and Cottbus World Cups.

Pros: Kexin has the world-record international score (16.85) on UB or any event for the women. Her extremely difficult bars set is consistent for her, making everything look very easy. She is also upgraded to a DTY vault, and there is even some speculation that she might come to the Olympics armed with an Amanar.

Cons: Kexin doesn't provide much to the team on beam or floor, and it is also a widespread rumor that she is too young to go to the games. (please read April Gymnastics News Round-Up post) Kexin is one of the only potential Chinese Olympians who has yet to compete in a world championship, and has just started competing on the world cup circuit this year.

Outlook: The Chinese might be hesitant to put Kexin on the team due to her lack of experience and because of the age rumor, though I fully expect to see her in Beijing. Her UB routine gives China a huge advantage over the USA on that event and her potential for a good vault score only adds to her potential contribution to the team. While experience is questionable, I have yet to see Kexin fall on her difficult UB routine, which should satisfy the coaches' need for a consistent gymnast.

Deng Linlin

Brief Bio: Like Kexin, Deng Linlin has burst out onto the scene this year. She won a medal of every color (Gold-BB, Silver-FX, Bronze-VT) at the Doha World Cup, and also won the AA at an internal test event meet against all the other top Chinese gymnasts.

Pros: Deng Linlin can contribute strong scores on three events, which is something the Chinese will need. She could be a strong lead-off vaulter or floor worker during team finals, and we shouldn't forget about her new, formidable 7.0 A-score on beam. Deng winning the AA at the recent Chinese test event ahead of Jiang Yuyuan (Yang Yilin was injured) and others helps her cause out to go to Beijing.

Cons: Deng is inexperienced and the coaches may not fully trust her to be mentally prepared to deal with all the pressure surrounding the Chinese women at the oly's. He Kexin's potential to be a vault lead-off as well will hurt Linlin's chances of making the team, as will her lack of international favor due to not being on the scene long enough. China also needs strong specialists, and Linlin's strength on the power events doesn't rival that of Cheng Fei or Jiang Yuyuan.

Outlook: Deng is on the bubble at this point. There are others that are looking to grab her position for her potential as a vault/floor/beam lead-off. Deng provides several strengths to the team, but the Chinese will look for world-class specialists on every event who are internationally seasoned to hit in Beijing. Deng's consistency and improvement, however, could be the right recipe to be chosen for the team.

Sui Lu

Brief Bio: Not much is known about Sui Lu, but she was very strong at the Chinese internal test event. There, she competed a whooping 6.4 A-score on floor (the equivalent of Fei/Yuyuan/possibly Johnson) and a 7.1 A-score on beam.

Pros: Though she has little name recognition, Sui Lu's world-class A-scores on beam and floor are just what the Chinese team needs. Floor is where China could potentially lose ground on the USA and for China to have three 6.4 A-scores points shows strong signs toward them winning gold in August. Li Shanshan's inconsistency on beam is also providing an open-door for Sui to get a spot on the Olympic team.

Cons: Before the recent China test event, pretty much the entire world hadn't a clue that this girl even existed. Judges are picky with gymnasts with little name recognition, and experience is obviously not on Sui's side with her yet to compete at a major international event on the senior level. It also appears as though Sui has little to contribute in terms of vault and uneven bars.

Outlook: Choosing Sui Lu for the team will be like gambling BIG MONEY in Vegas. Sui's huge starting scores on beam and floor can help out the Chinese girls a great deal in their quest for Olympic gold. However, Sui's lack of experience and exposure on the scene could backfire on the Chinese team both in terms of biased scores and missed routines. Sui's a potentially great asset to the team, but in this case the risk probably won't outweigh the reward.

Zhang Nan

Brief Bio: Zhang Nan has been on the senior team of China since 2003, where she won bronze in the AA at the 2003 Worlds and 2004 Olympics. She was also on the 2006 World Champion Chinese women's team and made balance beam finals there as well.

Pros: Zhang Nan is an experienced competitor who is generally consistent when the chips are down. At top form, Nan is capable of posting 16+ scores on balance beam and doesn't have a glaringly weak event.

Cons: The Chinese coaches switching Cheng Fei to team captain, originally Zhang Nan's duty, does not help her Olympic chances out in the least. Nan has battled many injuries and performed poorly at the 2007 Chinese Nationals, missing the world team. According to reports, Nan did not look strong at the recent pre-Olympic trials in China.

Outlook: Unless if Zhang Nan improves considerably in the next month, it is very unlikely we will see her competing in a 2nd Olympics. Nan's injuries have held her back since 2006 Worlds while the younger generation has come out like gangbusters to get the coveted six spots on the Olympic team. Handing the team captain duties over to Cheng Fei basically means that the Chinese coaches are no longer interested in what Zhang Nan has to offer.

He Ning

Brief Bio: He Ning contributed to China's gold medal win at the 2006 Worlds. Shortly after that, she secured the AA title at the 2006 East Asian Games. She was also selected to her 2nd world team in 2007 which won the silver medal.

Pros: He Ning's assets to the team are good UB work, consistency, experience, and extreme loyalty to China and its gymnastics. (i.e. when Yang Yilin beat Tweddle for bronze on UB at 'o7 worlds she screamed VERY LOUDlY in delight) He Ning is the only competitor besides Cheng Fei who was on both the 2006 and 2007 world championship teams.

Cons: With He Kexin, China no longer needs He Ning's work on UB, which is solid but unspectacular. He Ning is more of an AA gymnast than anything and China will be much more interested in filling the six team slots with specialists on at least one event, which is not something that Ning can really offer.

Outlook: Despite being named to both the 'o6 and '07 world teams, He Ning is unlikely to be named to the Olympic team. Her lack of a spectacular strength on one or more events will not turn eyes of the Chinese coaches looking to build an unbeatable team in the 6-3-3 of death format. Even her experience and consistency will be unlikely to prevail this year with Kexin, Sui, and Linlin all looking to grab Ning's former spot on the team.

Pang Panpan

Brief Bio: Pang Panpan burst out onto the scene at the 2006 Worlds, winning gold with her team and was in the mix to win AA gold had it not been for falls on beam and vault. However, injuries hampered her 2007 performances and thus was relegated to alternate at the 2007 Worlds.

Pros: Pang Panpan has an upgraded 7.1 A-score on uneven bars and at top form is strong on every event. Panpan has always been scored favorably, especially during the 'o6 worlds AA final when (some) judges were trying to go against Bruno Grandi's orders to let Vanessa Ferrari win so that they could crown Pang as the AA champ. (She had a fall on beam and yet was ranked 1st after 3 events). Pang is very experienced, which is not something many of the youngsters can say.

Cons: Pang is somewhat inconsistent, and has not competed a DTY in over a year. A good vault is something that could be a comparative advantage for her, but it looks like that won't materialize. Her upgrades on bars are good, but Yuyuan, Yilin, and Kexin all have equivalent or higher an A-score on that event while also looking to contribute on perhaps more events than that of Pang. Pang's beam and floor routines have lately not been up to the standard where China will need them come Beijing.

Outlook: Pang Panpan is on the bubble for the team as well. Her experience and good international scoring favor are strong assets to the team, but with Cheng Fei these assets aren't especially necessary. Pang's potential AA stength and improvement on UB could get her on the team IF she gets her vault back to a DTY. However, without a good vault she is simply opening the door for several other gymnasts to snatch her spot.

Xiao Sha

Brief Bio: Xiao Sha was named to the 2007 World team with a strong 2nd-place finish in the AA at the Chinese Nationals. There, she helped her team win silver and placed 7th in the AA. She opened up 2008 with an easy victory on the beam at the 2008 Cottbus Cup.

Pros: Xiao Sha hit a clutch performance on beam at the 2007 worlds-team finals after falling twice in prelims. Xiao's confidence has improved noticeably, especially when winning beam at Cottbus after falling twice in the warm-up. She also won beam at the Chinese internal test event, capitalizing on her strength to make the squad. Xiao also has very good expression on floor and won a bronze at Cottbus on that event as well.

Cons: Xiao Sha doesn't contribute much to the team beyond the balance beam, and of course this will be the most precarious event for the Chinese coaches to decide who they will need on the team most. There are others that can contribute more than Xiao's potential for a floor lead-off position, and the several high A-scores on beam lessen her comparative advantage on that event.

Outlook: Li Shanshan's inconsistency this year on beam is opening the door for Xiao Sha to steal one of the last spots on the team. Her improving confidence and consistency will be assets to the team, but the coaches need to decide if Xiao's strength on balance beam is enough to allow her to compete in Beijing.

Li Shanshan

Brief Bio: Li Shanshan was selected to compete on the 2007 World team. Then a relative unknown outside of China, Shanshan won the silver medal with her team and on the balance beam WITH a fall. She won beam a few weeks later at the Intercity Games, and silver at the 2008 Cottbus Cup on the same event.

Pros: Li Shanshan's whooping potential A-score of 7.3 on beam is the highest known to any gymnast competing in the world. Had Shanshan not fallen at the 2007 Worlds-event finals, she would've posted a practically unbeatable 16.7. Shanshan also contributed on floor at Worlds team finals, being the lead-off performer.

Cons: Li Shanshan's inconsistency with her difficult beam set is making her lose ground to other beam workers, particularly Xiao Sha. She also doesn't have another especially strong event besides balance beam. Chosen to be the floor lead-off at worlds, she fell out-of-bounds and provided the golden opportunity for the USA to win.

Outlook: Shanshan is battling Xiao Sha for the beam specialist spot, and so far it looks like Xiao is going to get it. Shanshan's nerves and inconsistency are too much for the Chinese to gamble on to allow her to compete in team finals when gold is at stake. However, her scoring potential on beam and opportunities to redeem herself (Tianjin World Cup/Chinese Nats) mean that all is not lost YET for Shanshan.

Li Ya/Fan Ye

Brief Bio: Li Ya and Fan Ye competed on the 2004 Chinese Olympic team of DISASTER, which finished a shockingly low 7th in team finals. Individually, Fan Ye won the 2003 World beam title and made UB and BB event finals at the 2005 worlds, though she failed to medal in either event. Li Ya made UB and BB event finals at the 2004 Olympics, though also failed to medal in either event. She won silver on UB and gold on BB at the 2006 world cup finals, and was on the 2006 World Champion team.

Outlook: We have not seen Li Ya compete internationally since the 2007 Maribor World Cup and Fan Ye since 2007 Glasgow World Cup. They both have similar strengths, but them not being sent to international competitions in favor of younger competitors means that neither is likely to be considered for a 2nd Olympic team. Both are known to crack under the pressure, and did so numerous times in Athens. There was no mention of either gymnast at the recent Chinese internal test event.

Yang Yilin

For more info please see AA final post.

Outlook: Despite her injury, Yilin's strength on bars provides China with a hefty advantage over USA on that event. Her consistency at top form and good AA strength should get Yilin on the team, providing she recovers in time.

Jiang Yuyuan

For more info please see AA final post

Outlook: Yuyuan successfully competing an Amanar vault at the recent internal test event basically guarantees that she is going to Beijing. Her potential high scores on vault, floor and bars make Yuyuan a big asset to the team.

Zhou Zhouru

Brief Bio: Zhou Zhouru was declared a B-team athlete by the NBC commentators at the American Cup, though she ended up competing at the 2006 World Champion team and placed in AA finals at those championships as well. She won the silver medal in the AA at the 2006 East Asian Games, but was left off the 2007 World Championship squad.

Pros: Zhou Zhouru brings consistency, unique artistry on floor exercise, and good all-around strength to the team. After not being selected to the 2007 world team, Zhou came to the 2007 Stuttgart World Cup and won gold on BB and bronze on UB. Zhou is also a fan favorite for her good form and originality.

Cons: Zhou doesn't have a formidable A-score on any event and has been passed aside for the recent world cup meets in favor of the youngsters. She doesn't have an overwhelming specialty event, and doesn't provide the scoring potential China needs on her better events, bars and beam.

Outlook: Sadly, NBC calling Zhou Zhouru a B-team athlete will likely hold true in 2008, despite it not doing so in 2006. Zhou, even at her peak, doesn't provide the Chinese anything that they don't already have amongst their top gymnasts likely to make the squad.

Closing Thoughts

• China is likely to field a team similar to that of the 2007 Worlds. Veterans from 2006, with the exception of Fei, have given little international exposure in the last year which means that the Chinese coaches liked what they saw from the girls at the '07 worlds, despite them not winning gold.


• China is going after the A-score for a gold medal, while hoping that good form and consistency hold true for high B-scores. The U.S. seems to be going after both scores, but the top Chinese girls seem to be upgrading their routines 24/7 and could have a big starting score advantage over the U.S. come August.


• The days of China's breathtaking ability/never being able to hit under pressure to save its life seem to be more/less over. Gymnasts' difficulty will provide more room for error, but if the increased difficulty backfires the U.S. will be right there to snatch the gold.


• China wants girls with atleast some international exposure, high difficulty, specialty on one or more event and general consistency to be on the team.

Predicted Olympic team:

1. Cheng Fei
2. Jiang Yuyuan
3. He Kexin
4. Yang Yilin
5. Sui Lu (UPDATE)
6. Xiao Sha

Alternates:

1. Pang Panpan
2. Li Shanshan
3. Deng Linlin (UPDATE)

Barring injury, Fei and Yuyuan are locks because of their strengths on the power events. Kexin will go because of her valuable UB set EVEN IF she is too young. Yilin's consistency and excellent UB work will help out China greatly. Linlin's multiple contributions to the squad on VT, BB and FX are just what China needs to get consistently high scores on those apparatus. Xiao Sha's confidence and strength on beam provide her a chance to help out her team and potentially an individual gold medal on that event.

UPDATE: Now that the Chinese Nationals have taken place, Sui Lu's golds on beam and floor in event finals far outshine Deng's AA and vault bronze medals and it now seems far more probable that Sui Lu will be named to the team as opposed to Linlin.

Now, the start score comparison with my predicted olympic teams for China and USA. The A-score will be crucial to who wins gold in Beijing. First, the A-scores we KNOW that the athletes are CAPABLE of competing. (Note: This is tentative and should just be read to get an idea of the starting scores between USA and China, not for an exact number).

USA VT: Peszek(5.8), Johnson(6.5), Sacramone(6.3)=18.6

USA UB: Memmel(6.6), Worley(6.7), Liukin(7.7)=21.0

USA BB: Sacramone(6.6), Liukin(6.6), Johnson (6.9)=20.1

USA FX: Memmel(6.2), Sacramone(6.2), Johnson(6.3)=18.7 TOTAL=78.4

CHN VT: Kexin(5.8), Yuyuan(6.5), Cheng(6.5)=18.8

CHN UB: Yuyuan(7.1), Yilin(7.2), Kexin(7.7)=22.0

CHN BB: Linlin(7.0), Fei(7.0), Sha(7.1)=21.1

CHN FX: Linlin(6.1), Yuyuan(6.3), Cheng(6.4)=18.8 TOTAL=80.7

China Advantage by 2.3

Potential Upgrades:

Cheng(FX)-6.5 with piked full-in dismount

Liukin(BB)-6.8 with triple full dismount

Johnson(BB)-7.0 with pike front and 6.4(FX) if double pike is replaced with full-in

Liukin (UB)-7.9 if Tkatchev and Pak are connected

Memmel(UB)-said in IG interview that she has 95% of her old bar routine and has added a couple new skills- I won't bump her score up yet

Sacramone(FX)-6.3 if she replaces double pike with triple twist

Peszek and Kexin (VT) with potential Amanars, if both compete them the .7 upgrade for both teams will cancel each other out

Status with rumored upgrades:

USA: 79.8

China: 81.5

China Advantage by 1.7

China having at least 1.5 and as much as 2.5 points in A-score advantage bodes VERY WELL for their olympic chances. While the exact A-scores of the athletes I listed are still sketchy, I was trying to make the point that China is boosting their A-scores as much as possible to get the gold. The U.S. should get better execution marks, and as competitors they are perhaps a little bit more consistent. I still believe China will falter somewhat and that USA will win, but people saying that the U.S. is the best in the world and will crush the field for the gold obviously don't know jack squat about the strength of the Chinese girls.

Next Post: Analysis on Chalked Up and the Parkettes

That is all.