Karolyi Camp Rumor Roundup+ Analysis

Anyway, it appears as though the 12 girls that advanced to the final selection camp meet at the Karolyi Ranch arrived safe and sound yesterday and began their training sessions today. Below is a list of the rumors and insider info that I have picked up from various message boards and other sources.

• Apparently NBCOlympics.com is doing some coverage of the camp meet, but specifically what coverage we will be getting is unknown. Tomorrow there will be an AA competition around 12:30 P.M., and Saturday and EF competition around 5:30-6:00ish in which all of the girls compete two events. The official announcement has been said to be between 7:00 and 8:00 Central Time on Saturday evening, and it appears as though NBCOlympics.com will be the first source to officially leak out the info of the team selection to the public.
• There has been an abundance of varying reports that have suggested in the EF competition that either the gymnasts decide which events they will compete in (like they did at the Karolyi International Friendly meet back in May) or that Martha K. will be choosing the events for the gymnasts. It has also been said that Martha K. may even demand some of the gymnasts to compete on their weaker/weakest events in this meet to better analyze which bubble gymnasts can deal with the pressure and which ones cannot. However, Shawn Johnson's blog entry said that the gymnasts do choose the events they will compete in, so I would say that is what is most likely to happen.
• According to a message from USAG, only the families of the gymnasts will be allowed to see the meet, in addition to the selection committee and what not. However, no word yet if the Karolyi summer campers will get to see the meet like they did in 2004.
• Overall, most of the gymnasts have looked at least somewhat shaky in training sessions.
• Chellsie Memmel has been falling on her piked barani on beam.
  
• Samantha Peszek looks all-around shaky, though it is important to remember that Peszek looked lackluster in training at Nationals and Olympic Trials and in both cases turned in pretty solid performances.
• Shayla is looking especially solid and her good UB work looks like it definitely could get her the last spot on the team.
• Jana Bieger looks no different than usual; uninspiring, awful form, yet consistent.
  
• Bela is giving glowing reports on how tough Nastia is; Bela loves Nastia and Shawn to death so this isn't surprising. It has also been reported that Martha K. and USAG want Bela away from the girls as much as possible.
• Ivana Hong may be (gasp) injured. Apparently she has a knee injury, and as she was dismounting beam and subsequently grabbed her knee in pain. Nothing official if she has pulled out or anything like that, but I would say if she does have a major knee issue she is either going to brave it and compete sloppily (knowing Al Fong that would seem likely) or just withdraw. Either option would make her chances of even an being named an alternate slim to nill, but again no word yet if this rumor is totally legit and if Hong is indeed planning to bow out of the race.
• Sloan's knee is still giving her issues, Martha K. and Co. aren't interested in her any longer for the last spot.
• Johnson's put on a few pounds since Trials and Martha K. isn't happy. (Note: I find this one to be especially ludicrous, and if it is true it is probably just because Johnson is resting a tad bit in order to peak at the right time for the Games)
  
• A-Sac was seen icing her knee, though still appears to be fine.
  
• That is all the info I have to provide, and my final thought is this: If Peszek is looking shaky (and continues to look that way, though honestly I think she will get it together) and if Hong is injured, Mattie Larson HAS to be named as an alternate. Being an actual team member is still a bit of a stretch, but Larson is consistent, polished and it would be a tremendous experience for her to travel to Beijing with the team that would only benefit her future career as a potentially great gymnast for the United States.

Predictions for Events Gymnasts Will Compete in EF Competition

Shawn Johnson: UB, FX
Reasoning: Martha K. and Co. need to know that Johnson's 6.4 A-score UB routine can be competed consistently (she missed a combination on trials night two which lowered her A-score back down to a 6.2), especially when it comes down to whether the selection committee feels that Bieger's unspectacular but consistent UB work is enough for the last spot on the team. As for FX, Johnson getting her whip+triple twist around will be another crucial test for her.


Nastia Liukin: UB, FX
Reasoning: Improvement on vault and being a rock solid beamer all year make bars and floor the key areas for Liukin to focus on. Liukin's 7.7 A-score UB routine has been inconsistent all year and Liukin needs another chance to prove herself and get her confidence level a boost on that event prior to the Games. Liukin could potentially compete FX in team finals with her recent improvement of consistency there, and Martha K. and Co. will look to see if that consistency is still going strong.


Chellsie Memmel: VT, FX
Reasoning: Floor Exercise is a relative no-brainer, simply because Memmel is planning a double arabian upgrade which could get her A-score to a potential of 6.5. Memmel is the ideal candidate for a floor performer in team finals (besides Johnson and Sacramone) at the Olympics, even more so than Liukin and Peszek, and this upgrade could make for a high-scoring routine if done successfully. However, the other event in which she would compete is sketchy, but vault seemed like the best option because she is scheduled to bring back her DTY here and she has been superbly consistent on bars and beam throughout Nationals and Olympic Trials.


Alicia Sacramone: VT, FX
Reasoning: This is a pretty obvious decision, especially since Alicia has been said to be unveiling her Amanar vault and triple twist on floor here at the ranch. Alicia's calf issue is perhaps the most dangerous threat of an injury to the Fab Four (Shawn, Nast, Sac, and Chellsie) at this point in time, however knowing Alicia's immense experience and confidence she should be able to come to the Games armed with fire and determination to lead her team to a gold medal, and to bag some individual glory as well.


Samantha Peszek: BB, FX
Reasoning: Sam P.'s has made improvements on floor, and while not spectacular on that event at trials, she would be an ideal back-up on that event assuming Johnson, Sacramone, and Memmel are to compete that event in team finals. Peszek has the potential for a 6.5 A-score on that event if she brings back the 1.5 twist + double pike combo she did at Nationals. However, she may end up doing beam if she brings her double arabian dismount to the camp, as landing a DTY for her is not a problem and will still have the opportunity to do so at the AA competition.


Shayla Worley: UB, BB
Reasoning: This is an obvious choice, but if Martha K. were to slap some sense into Shayla's coach, Jeff Wood, than it would be very reasonable, and intelligent, for Worley to say farewell to the other events and just come to the camp competing bars and nothing else. USA has five excellent beam workers and that is more than enough depth the U.S. needs on that event, though if Worley really has an excellent routine there than she might as well show it. However, competing vault at trials=exceptionally poor decision making. And if she dare steps onto a floor exercise mat Martha K. should hide her music immediately, as Worley would be only building upon her gigantic kingdom of back injuries. If Worley comes to the camp with that 7.0 A-score routine on bars, I feel she is a worthy risk to take for the last spot, even if injuries are to come along for the ride.


Jana Bieger: UB, FX
Reasoning: Martha K.'s rumored tactics of having gymnasts compete on their weakest events are of no use to the ever consistent and predictable gymnastics of Bieger. Bars will really make the decision for her, and if she can outscore Johnson than her case for getting the last spot on the team would be very strong. However, as I have said Bieger's scoring potential doesn't really compare to that of Worley or Sloan on this event, and if Bieger and Johnson's scores are right in line with one another there really is no sense in taking Bieger in my opinion. As for floor exercise, Bieger has been shaky there but does have a 6.4 A-score there so she could be used on that event in an extreme emergency. But it is bars, once considered Jana's weakest event, that is either her ticket to compete in the Olympics, or to watch from the stands.


Bridget Sloan: UB, FX
Reasoning: Sloan's problems on both of these events at trials, and her two major events to possibly contribute to the team (obviously more so bars) look to be her key focus at the camp. However, a clean floor routine in the AA competition may persuade her and/or Martha K. for her to compete beam, as this is the most mental event of all and while not Sloan's strength, and will test her determination in a pressure-packed situation. Sloan's decision to compete FX at trials looked to be premature with her knee injury and all, and possibly detracted from her focus on the other events. Bridget was wise enough to know Martha K. likes her AAers and if Sloan were to be one she would have herself a ticket to Beijing, but perhaps not wise enough to know when to peak at the right time and what events she most needs to qualify for the Olympic team. The bottom line is that Sloan needs to nail her UB sets at the camp like her life depended on it to get on that team, and while her chances may not be overly great now they certainly haven't vanished.


Ivana Hong: VT, UB
Reasoning: Assuming Hong is ready to go, these are really the only events we would need her on in an emergency. Bars, though maybe not her strongest event, has improved and did score very well (15.55) on day two of trials. Vault is also very important, especially if Hong looks to hold off Mattie Larson for one of the alternate positions. Traveling alternate looks to be the best-case scenario for Ivana at this point, being the final team member would require stunning performances on uneven bars that we have yet to see.


Mattie Larson: VT/BB/FX
Reasoning: Martha K. may want Larson to compete on a weaker event of hers, beam, to see if she is mentally ready to be at least an alternate. Larson makes for an ideal back-up athlete on vault and floor and will look to outscore Hong and Memmel (possibly Peszek, though unlikely) on vault and Sloan, Peszek, and possibly a few others on floor to solidify her status as a possible alternate to the team.


Chelsea Davis: VT/UB
Reasoning: I have failed to recognize this young lady as a potential hopeful even for an alternate spot, though I do feel she deserves to be at the camp with her good performance at the trials. A rumored DTY upgrade and unspectacular yet consistent UB work could, if everything goes Davis' way, make her the 3rd alternate to the team. A long shot for sure, but if Davis delivers on those two events in particular there will certainly be more than a few important eyes looking at her, and it also doesn't hurt to have a former Karolyi star, Kim Zmeskal, as your coach.


Corrie Lothrop: VT/FX
Reasoning: This second event is of irrelevance to Lothrop's chances, but vault is probably one of the only reasons she is at the final camp and of course has said she might do an Amanar if its ready. However "if its ready" is not going to cut it for even an alternate position, let alone a spot on the team, and if Lothrop is really gunning to snatch Sam P.'s vault specialist spot this Amanar is going to have to be Cheng Fei good at the very least. Assuming Sam P. delivers another strong meet at the camp, she really has earned her spot and considering the fact that she is (at the very least) a back-up gymnast on any event, Martha K. and Co. will feel very safe using Peszek if any emergencies are to arise. One-event luxuries are not going to be considered for the team (unless if its bars, which Lothrop won't be contributing) unless of course they are a luxury that cannot be refused, and an "if its ready" Amanar simply won't qualify as one in the grand scheme of things. Lothrop is far too risky to send and can generate a far bigger consequence than it can a reward, though if this Amanar is proved to be reliable enough she could find herself as an alternate.



That is all.

25th post=2008 U.S. Nationals Extravaganza

Above: The all-around podium finish at the 2008 U.S. Nationals. Shawn Johnson defended her title by one point over Nastia Liukin, and Chellsie Memmel had a strong comeback meet finishing 3rd.

Kicking off the much anticipated marathon selection procedure for the U.S. women's team was the Visa Championships that began in Boston on June 5th. However, much of the drama was firing up before the event even began. Ashley Priess withdrew from Nationals and from her Olympic quest entirely which apparently even her coach, Mary Lee Tracy, didn't know the reasons behind. Shayla Worley's shaky practise sessions persuaded her to bow out of Nationals as well, though we should expect to see Worley at trials. Chelsea Davis, the politically favored dark horse I have mentioned before, did not compete at all despite originally contemplating competing bars. By the time the competition arrived, the stage was set as to who has what the U.S. needs in Beijing, and who doesn't. Some confirmed what we already knew, some came out of nowhere with a bang, and others fell short of what they were able to live up to. Without further ado:

Please note that the vault rankings are based on both days of one-vault scores, NOT on the athletes that competed two vaults. (where A-Sac finished 1st, Ranzy finished 2nd)

Shawn Johnson

Results: 1st-AA, 1st-VT, 5th-UB, 2nd-BB, 1st FX

Report: Shawn had a strong meet here, hitting 8 for 8 routines. Landing her Amanar successfully should be a huge boost for Shawn's confidence, but the U.S. will need even better landings from her in Olympic team finals. Shawn took out her toe-on full on bars, which was probably a wise move because it is only worth .1 more than her regular toe-on handstand. Balance beam was solid both days, though her dismount was underotated in day one and overotated in day two. Shawn's leg-up full turn was apparently downgraded both days (her start value was a 6.9 instead of a 7.0) and thus she should take that skill out of her repertoire immediately. Shawn's new and improved 6.6 A-score on floor makes her a very formidable contender for Olympic FX gold, but her whip + triple twist needs to be cleaned up, especially when it comes to getting the full revolutions of the twist completed prior to landing.

Scoring: Shawn was scored generously on vault and floor, and definitely shouldn't have gotten her whip + triple credited in night one especially. Beam was overall pretty fair, though her 16.0 in night one was undermarked while her 16.3 in night two was overmarked. She was scored generously on bars, though her scores there were consistent in comparison with the other gymnasts.

Olympic Status: Lock

Outlook: Shawn is perhaps still the leading contender for Olympic AA gold, but Nastia and Jiang Yuyuan (China) are not too far behind. Improvements to be made before Beijing include getting full revolutions on her triple twist, improving Amanar landings and getting her leg-up full turn completed. Shawn was a far more focused and less-smiley competitor than last year; which is likely an indication she is feeling the pressure but IS mentally equipped to handle it. Without the FX fall from Nastia Liukin on night one, Shawn theoretically would've finished 2nd, but given the outrageous day two scores given to Liukin I would still say Shawn would have a slight scoring advantage in an international competition as an AA gymnast if both girls were to hit. These Nationals were easily Shawn's strongest competition so far in 2008 and has yet to score under a 16 on balance beam this year.

Nastia Liukin

Results: 2nd-AA, 5th-VT, 1st-UB, 1st-BB, 8th-FX

Report: Nastia had a stuck vault in night one and while she did take a large step in night two, her power and quickness has considerably improved this year. Liukin hit her high bar difficult combinations on uneven bars, but needs to clean up her dismount form and landings if she has any hope of beating He Kexin on that apparatus. I was a bit confused with her beam score of 6.7 when she has been marking a 6.6 A-score all year long; perhaps they haven't been crediting her full turn or her front somi to scale. Suffered a fall on her double front on floor during night one, a skill which she never misses and went on to nail it on day two. Liukin's floor exercise in day two was the best floor routine I have yet to see from her.

Scoring: Night one scoring was pretty fair, despite a somewhat generous 16.1 on beam. However, night two was a completely different story. Scoring the same on vault during both days of competition when one vault was stuck and the other wasn't was absolutely ridiculous, as was a 17.1 on bars with a near-fall on her dismount. A 15.85 on floor just added to the outrageous scoring inflation given to Liukin, which I hope doesn't persuade Martha to believe that Liukin will be our floor lead-off girl in Beijing. (though she certainly could if she were to prove that she could HIT consistently like she did on day two).

Olympic Status: Lock

Outlook: Nastia's improved vaulting power looks to be en route to a DTY upgrade. However an upgrade there would just be for her AA chances; allowing Liukin to vault in team finals is far too large of a risk for the U.S. Improvements to be made prior to the Olympics include increasing stamina with her uneven bars set, and perhaps get back her triple full off beam IF and only IF she can get the revolutions around consistently. Maintaining the solidity on floor exercise that she demonstrated in night two will not only be necessary for her AA medal chances, but also for the make-up of the U.S. Olympic team and the alternates. Like Shawn, Nastia has yet to score lower than a 16 on balance beam in 2008.

Alicia Sacramone

Results: 2nd-VT, 3rd-BB, 2nd-FX

Report: Overall a fairly disappointing comeback meet for Alicia. At home in Boston, Alicia failed to make her potential A-score of 7.0 on beam either day. Several wobbles, despite generous scoring, do not make her as reliable a competitor there as the U.S. will need. Floor Exercise was pretty solid, despite an OOB on night one and an OOB that would've likely been taken in an international competition on day two. Vault was strong from Alicia night one, but I was very disappointed that she had an almost mental breakdown after her handspring Rudi on day two (could've been due to her calf though) and bailing out of her DTY afterwards.

Scoring: Generous throughout the entire event, though her vault scores were fair. A 15.95 on day two beam was absolutely outrageous, with the judges giving her credit for (what I assume) her tour jete 1/2 which wasn't fully rotated and her leg-up full turn which had a large wobble. Probably should've gotten an OOB penalty after her Arabian double front on FX during night two. Reputation, not solidity, was what saved the day for Alicia.

Olympic Status: Lock

Outlook: Alicia had an apparently strong meet at the Karolyi International meet prior to these championships, especially on beam where she struggled here. I think Alicia is getting too sassy for her own good, she can be outspoken but there is a fine line between being outspoken yet focused and when words are not backed up with actions. However, I am confident that she was shaky here due to memories of 2004, when she didn't even make trials, and also due to the fact that her calf was acting up (she only trains leg events). Alicia definitely peaked at last year's worlds (among her performances that year) and she should be able to do so at the Games as long as she trains and competes intelligently with focus and confidence.

Chellsie Memmel

Results: 3rd-AA, 16th-VT, 2nd-UB, 4th-BB, 4th-FX

Report: Chellsie looked like the champion she is here with 8 out of 8 routines and finishing with a stuck cold yurchenko 1.5 which she struggled on a lot in the podium training sessions. That last vault was easily my favorite part of the competition; it showed how tough a competitor she is. In addition to that Chellsie hit two clean bars sets, which scored 16.0 and 16.3 respectively on the two days of competition. Chellsie was a tad shaky on beam during day two (15.45) and really needs to make sure all of her skills are fully rotated and connections are without pauses. With a strong floor exercise on day two (15.6), Chellsie could be seen during team finals on three events, and she has become too much of an asset to be left off the team.

Scoring: A 15.45 for balance beam on day two was low comparative to some of the other scores being handed out despite similarly executed routines, notably Sacramone. The judges didn't credit one of her skills in night one where she had a 6.8 A-score (I have no clue what it was, possibly her jam to handstand?) but had a 7.0 A-score with the same exercise. Vault was perhaps the only fairly scored event of the competition, and with a stuck yurchenko 1.5 Chellsie got a 14.75 there.

Olympic Status: Lock (Being the 2nd ranked UB worker alone provides the U.S. no choice but to send her in my opinion).

Outlook: Chellsie is still the most reliable girl to hit of anyone, and has the potential to contribute on any event in Olympic team finals (even vault if she gets her DTY back and consistent). Memmel is needed on bars, and can be used on beam if Sacramone doesn't get back her consistency or floor if USA feels she is most reliable to get a good score there. Remaining healthy and consistent is what Memmel needs to be concentrating on. But with two months left and even further room for improvement to be made, Chellsie should be the missing piece of the puzzle that the U.S. has been struggling to find.

Samantha Peszek

Results: 4th-AA, 4th-VT, 6th-UB, 5th-BB, 10th-FX

Report: Sam had a good but unspectacular meet at Nationals to finish 4th AA. Sam has a potential, but not necessarily needed, score on vault. The reason why I say this is if gymnasts like Liukin or Memmel, or even vault specialists such as Brittany Ranzy or Mattie Larson can be trusted for a good score here, than Peszek isn't needed. Same thing on floor, having a 6.4 A-score there is good IF and only IF she can hit the routine. Had good routines on bars and beam (16.0 in day two) but isn't doing herself any favors by hitting on events that will be considered very little on her part to make the team.

Scoring: Scored pretty fairly throughout the entire meet, which is surprising given her apparent political favor with her mom working for USAG and liking from Martha K. Adding the presumed .8 to the fall of her floor routine on day two, she would have a 15.55, which is .05 lower than Memmel and .3 lower than Liukin. Though Liukin in particular was scored generously, it is just a picture of actually how we could use Sam on floor, but she is by no means a necessity.

Olympic Status: In the mix

Outlook: Samantha really needs to step it up on the power events if she wants to go to Beijing. The selection committee really couldn't care less if Sam P. can even do a cast handstand on bars, but what they do care about are her scores on vault and floor. Floor will be the deciding factor of whether she goes or not, in my opinion. If she can hit two clean sets at trials, finish 3rd and ahead of Nastia and Chellsie, than she's going. Sam has the potential to be an asset for the team, but there are a lot of ifs to be taken into consideration.

Jana Bieger

Results: 6th AA, 13th-VT, 4th-UB, 8th-BB, 6thT-FX

Report: Jana was harshly scored throughout the entire meet, and tying for 6th on floor doesn't help out her Olympic bid, which was partly because of stepping out of bounds on both days of competition. Finishing 4th on uneven bars does keep Bieger in the hunt, however. Jana does not bring anything really golden in terms of scores to the team, just solid work that is there if the U.S. absolutely needs it.

Scoring: Jana was somewhat of the 2008 version of Natasha Kelley, though Kelley was definitely underscored more at last year's Nationals. Scores were tight for Jana ironically the most on beam where everyone knows she is not needed. In contrast, her bars and floor scores were relatively tight but she didn't receive anything totally out of line on either event.

Olympic Status: In the mix/longshot

Outlook: It is now turning out to be that Jana won't be on the U.S. Olympic team and should've at least considered competing on Germany's Olympic team; they would select her in a heartbeat. The writing was on the wall way back last year when Jana had a sloppy, but not disastrous, meet at Nationals and was passed over in favor of the inconsistent Samantha Peszek and the then inexperienced Bridget Sloan. Jana is close to being back at her top form, but she has yet to raise her standards of gymnastics to meet up with the rest of the improving USA gymnasts and gymnasts from around the world. Jana is likely to be an alternate, as she is a great back-up option if injury occurs to a bars or floor worker.

Ivana Hong

Results: 5th-AA, 9th-VT, 7th-UB, 6th-BB, 6thT-FX

Report: Ivana's dead even and solid but unremarkable scores surprised no one, and Hong will need a miracle to get on the Olympic team. Failing to make a case for her DTY on either day, scoring lower than Sam P. and Nastia there on both days of competition, means that Ivana has no immediate qualities that U.S. can't do without. A strong meet on day two got Ivana a good 5th place finish in the AA, but these days AA standings amongst the bubble girls mean next to nothing when it comes to deciding the make-up of a team.

Scoring: Fairly scored throughout the entire meet, with nothing being surprisingly high or low. This new code of points has not been a good thing for Ivana at all. Ivana's clean form, lines, and artistry are hardly rewarded when her weaknesses include missed handstands, lack of amplitude and difficulty. The aforementioned errors are often deducted far more severely on Ivana than deductions for a gymnast who lacks good lines or artistry.

Olympic Status: In the mix/longshot

Outlook: The gymnast who is cursed with a bad birthday is not Mattie Larson (as Tim Daggett so inaccurately mentioned, she just didn't decide to compete seniors last year) but it is in fact Ivana. Not because she's not had enough time to prepare for the Olympics or anything obvious like that. The reason I say this is because Ivana would've been an a great team asset had she competed around 12-15+ years back. This was when gymnasts competed compulsories when form and artistry were musts to get a good score, and even in optional routines where artistry and form were stressed to some degree. Ivana's strength as an AA athlete, and not a specialist, would've also helped her had she competed during that time. However, in today's time, Ivana will be blessed just to be an alternate on the Olympic team, which is a real shame.

Bridget Sloan

Results: 3rd-UB, 7th-BB

Report: Bridget only competed two events at these championships due to being cautionary of her knee injury which she sustained in training back in March. However, significant improvement on bars came afterwards, and the withdraws from bars specialists Ashley Priess (not going to trials) and Shayla Worley (going to trials) have opened the door significantly for Bridget to make the team. A 7th place on balance beam means nothing to the already packed balance beam team we will be sending, but a 3rd place on uneven bars and finishing solidly ahead of Jana Bieger on USA's weakest event were both necessary tasks in trying to get on the Olympic team.

Scoring: Scored a bit generously, I haven't seen her day two bars routine but it scored a likely inflated 15.95. Also got the same execution mark on beam for both days despite a significant (IMO .5 deduction) wobble on day two.

Olympic Status: In the mix

Outlook: Bridget Sloan, the once longshot who chose to compete seniors in '07 right before Nationals, could be peaking at the right time. Getting back to full strength and possibly competing a DTY at trials could seal the deal for Sloan to go to Beijing. The selection committee has to factor in how consistent Sloan is, and how much she can potentially contribute to the team. However, Bridget's Olympic chances will most likely come down to the health of Shayla Worley, and with both being strong on bars it will likely be a showdown for one spot. At this point in time, though, Sloan definitely has a big advantage over Worley with her strong bars showing at Nats.

Mattie Larson

Results: 7th-AA, 8th-VT, 8th-UB, 13th-BB, 3rd-FX

Report: Mattie Larson, the proclaimed unofficial dark horse to the team, was strong here and has definitely improved her chances towards making the Olympic team. A 3rd place finish on floor exercise, where the U.S. are looking to fill a whole on, makes a strong statement for Larson. However, somewhat shaky DTY's (which were underscored) mean that improvement needs to be made there prior to trials if Larson has any hope of getting a spot on the team.

Scoring: Mattie only averaged a 14.725 on vault (scores of both days) comparative to Sam P.'s 14.975 average despite similarly executed vaults with Sam P.'s being slightly better. However, the judges were generous to Mattie on floor, having the third highest execution score on both days of the competition. However, Mattie's 6.1 A-score is lower than what Peszek and Bieger have (6.4) and with the rumored upgrades from Memmel.

Olympic Status: In the mix/longshot

Outlook: Going for floor alone is too small a contribution for Larson to make the team. At trials, it is imperative that Larson place 3rd on vault and floor to be seriously considered to make the team. It can happen, though, if politically biased judges decide to score her favorably and if Larson performs to her potential. Chellsie Memmel's father/coach Andy hinted upgrades on floor for Chellsie, and if Chellsie were to solidly finish 3rd on floor at trials than it will be probably be game over for Larson because of her lack of experience and for her necessity on just one event.

Others Going to Trials Who Competed at Nationals

(The Following are all Longshots, but Shayla Worley is "In the mix.")

Corrie Lothrop

Results: 8th-AA, 6th-VT, 9th-UB, 10thT-BB, 11th-FX

Outlook: Not going to Beijing, but good for her for making Olympic Trials.

Randi Stageberg

Results: 9th-AA, 6th-VT, 15th-UB, 10thT-BB, 9th-FX

Outlook: Randi's lack of an international name caused the judges to low-ball her throughout the competition on her strengths on vault and floor and is thus very unlikely to be named even as an alternate.

Mackenzie Caquatto

Results: 10th-AA, 10thT-VT, 10th-UB, 15th-BB, 19th-FX

Outlook: Well she certainly likes the #10! (see above). Anyway, Mackenzie reminds me of two gymnasts. One, Hilary Grivich, for their similar body types and faces. The other is Jade Barbosa, and as I mentioned in my U.S. Classic post I noticed that Mackenzie looked like she was on the verge of tears before and after a good routine and out of nowhere unveiled this beautiful smile on the floor exercise. Despite her not likely going to Beijing, I think this girl has a fairly elegant and clean style and I wish her all of the best in the future.

Olivia Courtney

Results: 11th-AA, 10thT-VT, 17th-UB, 12th-BB, 15th-FX

Outlook: Another supposed dark horse to the team, but finishing 10th on vault and 15th on floor mean that she is too inexperienced and unpolished to be trusted to compete in the Olympics.

Alaina Johnson

Results: 12th-AA, 20th-VT, 12th-UB, 16th-BB, 14th-FX

Outlook: The "other" Johnson beat out WOGA gymnast Christa Tanella to get the last spot on the National team by .2 of a point. She will go to the Olympic trials, which is a great accomplishment even if Beijing is not in her immediate future.

Amber Trani

Results: 14th-VT, 9th-BB, 18th-FX

Outlook: Why on earth did Martha K. even let Amber go to trials given the fact that Amber did poorly at both the U.S. Classic and here at Nationals as well. Martha K. probably felt that the Mrs. would lose all hope for the future if she didn't have at least one girl at trials with Geralen now out of the picture. I'm sure the Mrs. thinks that Amber has a legitimate shot at going to Beijing, when everyone else knows she won't be. For Amber's sake it would probably be better for her to not have advanced trials so she could rest her body prior to NCAA.

Darling Hill

Results: 15th-VT, 20th-BB, 5th-FX

Outlook: Darling is consistent on floor, but failing to get above a 15.25 on floor on either day of competition and failing to make top 3 on floor basically means game over for Hill's Olympic bid. However, Darling has done herself and her grandmother who passed on earlier this year proud by making the Olympic Trials.

The Injured Few

Chelsea Davis

Outlook: Chelsea is being used as a psychological ploy by Martha K., scaring the girls with a gymnast very few people have heard about outside the diehard circle of gymnastics fans and others in the know. As I have said before, Kim Zmeskal is the only reason I believe she is even going to Olympic trials. Despite political favor, Davis is unlikely to be needing her passport anytime soon due to lack of experience and individual strengths that the U.S. needs.

Shayla Worley

Outlook: Shayla's back injuries have left a spot on the team up for grabs for several gymnasts, including her. Having bars as a strength is good for Worley's Olympic chances, but Bridget Sloan's consistency and improved difficulty on that event will make it hard for Worley to make the team. Look at the trials for who finishes 3rd on bars, as this one finish is crucial for Sloan and Worley's Olympic chances, as well as the make-up of the alternates. Shayla is doubtful to be left off the team entirely, unless if she is going to come back at very subpar form. At this point in time, I would predict that Shayla will be an alternate.

And We Shouldn't Forget This One

Brittany Ranzy

Results: 14th-AA, 3rd VT, 13thT-UB, 21st-BB, 13th-FX

Outlook: Ok, now I doubt any of you have even taken as much as a second's worth of thought that this girl could be on the Olympic team. I certainly haven't. However, Ranzy finished 3rd on vault at Nats ahead of Sam P., Ivana, and Mattie. But what really got me going was a rumor that she is planning an Amanar for trials. Since the U.S. has no other girl that does an Amanar besides Shawn, (Alicia is unlikely to compete the vault in team finals even if it is consistent), another Amanar vault could be an additional great asset for the team. If Chellsie finishes 3rd on floor, this could further improve Ranzy's chances as there would be not be a great need for an additional floor specialist, like Sam P. or Jana. If Ranzy comes to trials with a DTY and does it cleanly, can she go to Beijing? Not a chance. But if she has an Amanar and lands it on both days, than they have to at least pick her as an alternate, lack of experience aside. Ranzy making the Olympic team is unlikely at best, but an Amanar vault from this young lady would be an interesting development in the Olympic race for the last two spots on the team.

2008 U.S. Nationals Longines Awards

(mocking the "Longines Prize for Elegance" that is handed out every year at Worlds)

The Longines Award for the Halloween/Chocolate Leo Disaster of the Century:

Shawn Johnson

The Longines Prize for Most Visually Appealing Leo:

Nastia Liukin, Day Two (This one was somewhat like Olesia Dudnik's at BB/FX finals at the 1989 Worlds, except Nastia's was more purple than Olesia's was)

The Longines Prize for Favorite Among Older Men

Three-Way tie between Samantha Peszek, Shawn Johnson, and Alicia Sacramone. Don't ask, these gymnasts are who my father (who knows NOTHING about gymnastics) liked the most.

The Longines Prize for Sorry You're Not Going to Olympic Trials

Ashley Stott, who won the U.S. Classic but had several issues here and finished behind several gymnasts who she beat at Classic.

The Longines Prize for Underscoring/Martha K. Doesn't Want You to go to Beijing:

Jana Bieger

The Longines Prize for Overscoring/USAG Loves You:

Nastia Liukin

The Longines Prize for Why the Hell Did You Retire?

Ashley Priess

The Longines Prize for Polish:

Samantha Shapiro

The Longines Prize for Followers:

Samantha Peszek. Wherever A-Sac is, Sam P. is always within a few feet's radius of Alicia. Though that's not necessarily a bad thing when it comes to team chemistry.

The Longines Prize for Outstanding Comeback:

Chellsie Memmel. Chellsie even has room for improvement onward to Beijing, and her bars strengths alone are a huge relief to the U.S. team.

The Longines Prize for Best Overall Gymnastics:

Shawn Johnson

The Longines Prize for Please God Let Your Calf Be OK:

Alicia Sacramone. We need her in top form for Beijing.

The Longines Prize for Elegance:

Nastia Liukin. Had a great meet aside from her double front FX fall in day one, and FINALLY hit a clean FX set in day two for the first time in years. Go Nastia!

Things to Look Out For at Olympic Trials

• Politically biased scores and inflated marks for top gymnasts are likely to continue. Expect inflated marks for the four locks plus Peszek, Sloan, and Worley. Bieger, Hong, Larson, and the other bubble girls will likely be scored fairly harshly throughout the meet like they were at these championships.


• Despite the fact that Shawn Johnson won Nationals, Liukin could steal the top spot at Trials due to strong political favor from USAG and possible upgrades to come. This would actually be a blessing in disguise for Shawn Johnson, who wouldn't have to deal with as much pressure going into Beijing. Chellsie Memmel likely won't break into the top two at trials unless if Liukin and/or Johnson suffer falls.


• AA and Beam placements are irrelevant at trials, instead pay close attention to who finishes 3rd on bars, vault, and floor. If Bridget Sloan is to finish 3rd on bars at trials with a sizable lead over Worley, I honestly think they have to pick her regardless of Sloan and Worley's placements on the other apparatus.


• Brittany Ranzy's Amanar vault, if done successfully, could make her somewhat of the Annia Hatch of this year's Olympic team. However, the only way this can happen is if Memmel and Liukin finish ahead of Peszek, Bieger and Larson on floor, thus degrading the need for a floor specialist.

Next Post: Olympic UB Final Outlook

That is all.