Mediterranean Gym Cup Analysis

As one of the final international meets prior to the Olympic Games, a tri-meet took place in Rome last week with Romania, Italy, and Brazil battling it out. Italy and Brazil should both play supporting roles throughout the competition in Beijing, not getting the limelight that will flock to USA and China, but will still play an important part of the competition especially when individual medals are concerned. Italy and Brazil's respective stars, Vanessa Ferrari and Jade Barbosa, provided us clues as to their chances of challenging for AA and individual event medals at the Games. Romania, complete with their leaders Sandra Izbasa and Steliana Nistor in hand, will look to steal away some of the medals and glory that is predicted to be reserved for China and USA. Here, we got a preview look at the condition of these three countries en route to the 2008 Olympic Games, less than a month away. Results here.




Romania


Sandra Izbasa- Upgrades including a DTY vault, and a 6.9 A-score on beam have looked to make Izbasa a potential dark horse in the Olympic AA final. However, one thing stands in the way of her being a serious AA threat: her UB double front dismount. This was hardly the first time she has fallen on this dismount, and it remains to be seen if she is going to change her dismount prior to the games and whether Romania will have to use her on UB in team finals, the latter of which will be decided upon the recovery of compatriot Cerasela Patrascu. Finished only .15 behind winner Vanessa Ferrari, but would've won if it weren't for the dreaded bars that have routinely been Izbasa's downfall (only a 5.5 A-score at this meet).


Steliana Nistor- Varying reports have gone from the fact that the reason Nistor only competed UB here was that she was simply resting her body to the fact that she has a back brace and is suffering from back issues. Her UB routine scored (for her) a lackluster score of 15.45, though one must keep in mind that the scores here were quite harsh for all of the gymnasts. Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, Jiang Yuyuan, and Yang Yilin all look to be formidable challengers for the AA podium, though with Ferrari looking shaky all year the European judges could save their high marks for Nistor at the Games. In that instance Nistor would very likely still be a top AA challenger assuming she is healthy and confident.


Romanian Team Outlook: With Patrascu's status still in the question, it remains to be seen if Patrascu is to be ready for the games exactly who she will replace. There is no obvious choice, though it might be Adriana Tamarjan as she is apparently still injured, the only one of the current Romanian Olympians who didn't compete at this meet. The other three members of the team: Andrea Acatrinei (beam specialist), Gabriela Dragoi (average on every event), and Andrea Grigore (decent VT/FX) are not especially strong assets to the team and are unlikely to be seen much in team finals. The best scenario for Romania is to have Patrascu replace Grigore with Tamarjan getting healthy and ready to compete in the games. Whether Romania will win bronze likely has much to do with Cerasela's recovery, and Romania will need her at peak form at the games to challenge Russia and its recently-increased depth. Romania unsurprisingly won the team competition here, but some weak scores on bars (even a few on beam and floor) are alarming for a team which doesn't want 2008 to be their first Olympic games since 1972 where Romania fails to bring home a team medal.


Italy


Vanessa Ferrari- Ferrari boasted the top uneven bars mark of this competition (15.5, 6.8 A), but was shaky elsewhere. This was arguably the best competition for Ferrari this year, but that isn't saying much for the former World and European AA champion who is continuing to battle tendonitis and other foot injuries that have plagued the Italian diva since last year. Ferrari competed a shaky DTY here (14.5), and had watered down beam and floor routines (15.35, 14.35). Ferrari was not credited for either her triple turn or her Memmel turn at this competition, and thus so far has a potential A-score of 6.0 on FX (she was given credit for only a 5.8 here). Upgrading to both her double-double and triple twist would get her A-score at a 6.4, but at this meet both her full-in and 2.5 twist were sloppily done and it appears unlikely she will get both tumbling passes back in time for Beijing. Ferrari has stated she won't be healthy by the Games' arrival, and it looks like Ferrari is more than a long shot for an AA medal of any color. However, Ferrari has proven herself to be an extremely tough competitor in the past, so one would be unwise to count her out just yet.


Carlotta Giovannini- Though not strong as an AAer, Giovannini's vaulting strengths are crucial for the success of the Italian team. They could become even more crucial if Giovannini comes to Beijing armed with her rumored Amanar and/or a Khorkina II vault (RO 1/2-on front tuck 1.5 off). Here, a solid DTY was all that was necessary (15.1), and was a good-enough result for the 2007 European vault champion who is coming off a sprained knee that kept her out of most of the Italian Nationals. Giovannini will also look to improve on her other events, floor exercise in particular, in order to bring Italy her maximum potential in August.


Italian Team Outlook: Italy's decision to allow Ferrari compete at the 2007 Worlds, as an AAer no less, could end up backfiring immensely on Ferrari and her team at the Olympics. Italy's strategy to have Ferrari compete watered-down routines (especially on BB and FX) this year have not helped speed up Ferrari's recovery, and it will be interesting to see if she has enough time and energy to get some consistent upgrades prior to Beijing. Italy is no doubt a long shot for a team medal (though barring a disaster they should make team finals), as is Vanessa Ferrari for individual medals. However, Italy's medal hopes may end up laying in an unexpected place. If Carlotta Giovannini's vault upgrades materialize, she should be a solid contender in vault finals. Though once again, the probability for that happening remains relatively low.


Brazil


Jade Barbosa- Brazil's star has looked anything but for the entirety of this year, and her shakiness continued at this meet with falls of beam and problems on bars. A 1.5 twist + front double-full upgrade on floor brings Barbosa's potential A-score on that event at a 6.3, though she was only credited for a 6.1 at this meet. Only competed a DTY (15.1) and will likely come to the Games without any experience of landing her Amanar vault in competition this year. Barbosa losing the Brazilian AA title to lesser-known Ana Claudia Silva has no doubt put a damper on her confidence, and whether she can get it back before Beijing remains to be seen. With Barbosa, the potential is there but her consistency is another story. At top form Barbosa could be in the AA medal mix, but her vault chances appear to be slim based on the fact that she has not landed her Amanar or Cheng vaults once this year.


Daiane dos Santos- Is pretty close to peak form on floor exercise, her signature event. However the judges didn't see it that way, clobbering her on both scores and downgrading three elements in the process, thus making her A-score a 6.1 instead of its proposed value of 6.4. Daiane is rumored to be putting in her piked double arabian back in as well, getting her A-score to a 6.5. However, doing that can cause some serious consequences. If her layout Arabian gets downgraded like it was here an additional piked double arabian wouldn't get credited because it would be considered a repetition of the same skill. Dos Santos has the potential to be a top challenger on floor exercise just like she was in Athens, but as this meet proved she also has the potential to be penalized harshly for silly errors that will keep her out of the game entirely.


Brazilian Team Outlook: While dos Santos' comeback is looking good, Khiulani Dias' absence from the team and Barbosa's unreliable confidence have put Brazil in a precarious position heading into the games. Making team finals is likely one of Brazil's top priorities, and can do that easily if they put together a strong effort in prelims. However, inconsistent performances from Brazil could put them in jeopardy of making team finals, as all of the teams that aren't USA, China, Romania, or Russia are all very close to one another when it comes to scoring potential. On the other hand, it can also be argued that Brazil missing team finals would be a blessing in disguise for this team that has little shot for a medal, which would then allow Jade Barbosa and Daiane dos Santos to be fully rested for the AA and apparatus finals.


Final Thoughts From This Competition

Though this was just a low key event, the current outlook for all three of these teams doesn't look overly impressive. Romania really does need Cerasela on the Olympic team, even if it is just for bars. A large part of Italy and Brazil's success in the Olympics depends on Ferrari and Barbosa, and both girls don't look near to their peak form at all. Hopefully Steliana just competing bars was merely precautionary, as she does have the potential to win some individual medals in August. Sandra Izbasa's UB dismount aside, this young lady looks to be in great shape and ready to help Romania win a team medal in Beijing. Who will rise above the pressure and become a shining star and who will falter and be whisked away in the darkness at the 2008 Olympics? We shall see.

Note: Gymnastics and Stuff and the Gymnut each have great commentary on this meet as well, and I advise you to check it out.

That is all.

2008 Olympic Floor Exercise Outlook

Above: The apparent top five contenders in the women's floor final: Cheng Fei (CHN), Sandra Izbasa (ROM), Alicia Sacramone (USA), Shawn Johnson (USA), and Elizabeth Tweddle (GBR)

I just checked out the USA Gymnastics website the other day and it appears as though floor will actually be the first event final contested, followed by vault on the same day. As event finals are in a three-day format, bars will be held the 2nd day and beam will be held the 3rd day. With the decline in artistry on floor exercise making it a less pleasing event to look at, it is probably a wise decision to close the event on beam, where all the drama is sure to come. The floor exercise used to be about a combination of good tumbling and nice choreography. The former Soviet Union was second to none when it came to choreographing floor routines with tumbling that was ahead of its time and dance which commanded the audience's attention. However, the new code has helped change floor exercise dramatically. Good dance is no longer necessary, nor is mediocre dance for that matter. What the FIG calls dance are triple turns and awkward twisting jumps that are rarely ever fully rotated and seldom ever look good. Tumbling requires not three tumbling passes, not four, but five. Double twisting double backs have grown significantly, as has the famed double twist side pass. However, admist all of the demands of tumbling, some gymnasts still find time to be artistic. In the floor exercise, the winner will be sure to land all of her tumbling, not miss any dance elements/connections, and have decent enough artistry.

Predicted Floor Exercise Event Finalists:


Cheng Fei (China)


Vanessa Ferrari (Italy)


Sandra Izbasa (Romania)


Shawn Johnson (USA)


Alicia Sacramone (USA)


Elizabeth Tweddle (GBR)


Cassy Vericel (France)


Jiang Yuyuan (China)


And if something happens to either Cheng Fei or Jiang Yuyuan (only 2 per country advance)............


Sui Lu (China)



Predicted Reserve Athletes:

Daiane dos Santos (Brazil)

Anna Pavlova (Russia)

Ana-Maria Tamirjan (Romania)


The Contenders


Cheng Fei (China)

Results: 2008 Tianjin World Cup FX champion, 2007 Olympic Test Event FX champion, 2007 Worlds-5th place, 2006 World FX champion, 2004 Olympics-4th place

Pros: Cheng Fei has the potential for a 6.6 A-score on this event, the highest of anyone in the world. Armed with a tucked double-double and possibly a piked full-in at the end of her routine, Cheng has all the necessary tumbling passes and polished artistry to get her gold. Cheng generally does well at home, and could be unbeatable if she hits everything cleanly.

Cons: Inconsistency is the question mark for Cheng. At the 2007 Worlds event finals, Cheng had a great routine going but stepped way out of bounds after a faulty landing on her piked full-in dismount, costing her a medal. Cheng is unlikely to use her full tumbling difficulty until event finals, and this could prove detrimental if she can't pace herself accordingly while competing with the enormous pressure of going for gold at home.

Outlook: Cheng is perhaps considered the one to beat at this event, but certainly has stiffer competition hear than on vault. Her tumbling has looked a tad shaky this year, but Cheng is known to peak at the right time. The question mark for everyone is whether she can put all of her difficulty together for a clean, and perhaps unbeatable routine, or whether a fluke error will keep her off the podium entirely.

Vanessa Ferrari (Italy)

Results: 2007 Worlds-6th place, 2007 European FX champion, 2006 Worlds-3rd place

Pros: Ferrari is capable of a solid 6.3 A-score, including competing difficult skills such as a double-double. At two World championships and one European championship she has hit three mostly clean routines, providing good evidence that she will hit if she makes FX finals in Beijing. She showed improved artistry at the recent Europeans and scored a 15.3 in AA finals at the 2007 Worlds, one of the highest floor marks of the entire meet even with a severe foot injury.

Cons: Ferrari has struggled with injury and a maturing body over the last year and missed even qualifying to the FX event finals at the Europeans in April. She has competed a watered-down set so far this year which won't qualify her toward Olympic FX finals even if hit cleanly. Ferrari has had issues in the past of stepping out of bounds.

Outlook: It remains unclear if we will even see Ferrari at her full difficulty come Olympics, and whether she will be able to hit her routine cleanly. I expect Ferrari to come to the Olympics armed with big tricks, and if she hits them cleanly she will be definitely be a strong contender for a FX medal. However, small errors and form issues have lowered her placement on floor in the past, and thus I am not expecting Ferrari to bring home an Olympic FX medal.

Sandra Izbasa (Romania)

Results: 2008 Cottbus FX champion, 2008 European FX champion, 2007 Worlds-8th place, 2006 Worlds-6th place

Pros: Izbasa has good artistry, superb tumbling, and decent form. Her 6.5 A-score is very formidable, as was her winning Europeans with a whooping 15.775. Her tumbling has been extremely consistent this year and has renewed life into her artistry. She will have strong political backing from any anti-China or anti-USA judges, being Europe's best hope for FX gold.

Cons: Izbasa has faltered in the last two World Championship FX event finals, stepping out of bounds numerous times. At the 2007 Worlds she was penalized heavily for underotating a twist pass. Izbasa could end up competing four routines in prelims, team finals, and AA finals, which would likely weaken her stamina by the time event finals roll around.

Outlook: Watch out Cheng, Johnson, and A-Sac, Izbasa has been coming out like gangbusters with her excellent FX performances this year. If she keeps this up she could well be an Olympic gold medalist. However, Izbasa's performances at the last two Worlds do not point strong signs to her hitting in Olympic FX finals, and as I mentioned earlier stamina could be a big issue for Izbasa, as FX finals are just one day after AA finals which she is likely to compete in.

Shawn Johnson (USA)

Results: 2007 World FX Champion, 2007 U.S. FX champion, 2007 Pan American Games-2nd place

Pros: With a rumored tucked full-in for her last pass, Shawn would have a strong 6.4 A-score. Floor is arguably Shawn's most consistent event, hitting all of her 2007 FX routines. Good form, excellent tumbling, and decent-enough artistry are a good combination for her success here. Shawn also has strong political favor, which was brought to light when she beat Alicia Sacramone at the 2007 Worlds despite an OOB and several other hops on her landings.

Cons: Shawn's whip + triple twist upgrade has been inconsistent in terms of full rotation this year, and reports from the camp indicated that Shawn didn't land her full-in upgrade at the end of her routine. Even with that upgrade she does lag a tad behind Izbasa and Cheng's A-scores on this event. Several observers have pointed out that Shawn travels so much on her tumbling passes that if she grew an inch she would be out of bounds for sure.

Outlook: It will be a tall order to repeat as FX champion, but it could happen if others make mistakes and if Shawn hits cleanly. This is a good event for Shawn and with strong political favor she should be in the mix for a medal and on a perfect night a gold medal. Shawn's #1 concern appears to be staying in bounds.

Alicia Sacramone (USA)

Results: 2007 Worlds-2nd place, 2007 U.S. Nationals-2nd place, 2006 U.S. Nationals FX champion-tie, 2005 Worlds FX Champion, 2005 U.S. FX Champion

Pros: Alicia has the entire package on this event, with sky-high tumbling, nice form, and attractive dance. Alicia hit three good FX routines at the 2007 World Champions, two of them with the pressure of being the last competitor of the night. Alicia's ease with all of her tumbling passes look like they can be upgraded without issues as well.

Cons: Alicia has rarely been favored by the international judges, who much prefer Shawn's cute and smily demeanor. Alicia's switch-side 1/2 was downgraded at the 2007 Worlds FX event final, costing her the gold. Alicia had reason to be upset after losing the 2007 World FX title, but her stormy reaction after the loss will make matters far worse with judges not wanting to score Sacramone highly due to her lack of sportsmanship. As of now, Sacramone has only a 6.2 A-score on this event, which is much lower than what she will need to medal in Beijing.

Outlook: Alicia's lack of political favor and lower A-score seem to make it unlikely for Sacramone to even reach the podium. She definitely has the potential for upgrades (double-double, piked double Arabian, triple twist) but whether she will decide to use any of them remains to be seen. Sacramone is excellent on the floor, but will need upgrades and mistakes from other competitors to get a gold medal.

Elizabeth Tweddle (GBR)

Results: 2008 Europeans-2nd place, 2007 Worlds-7th place, 2007 Europeans-2nd place, 2006 Worlds-4th place(tie)

Pros: Elizabeth has an upgraded 6.4 A-score on this event, and hit a great routine at the Europeans this year to win silver. This A-score is the 3rd highest A-score in the world that is currently being competed among the FX medal contenders. Tweddle is generally scored favorably by the international judges, being the only British female gymnast with a shot at winning a medal in any event.

Cons: Tweddle hit a lackluster routine at the 2007 Worlds event finals. Tweddle's artistry is relatively weak compared to the other top floor workers, and has suffered from stepping out of bounds or underotated landings in pressure situations in the past. Tweddle tends to be jinxed with getting injuries substained near or during a major competitions, i.e. an injury substained while practicing bars at the 2005 Worlds prevented her from competing floor exercise.

Outlook: Tweddle's 6.4 A-score, if hit cleanly, can get her a medal on this event. With Kexin, Yilin, and Liukin upgrading like crazy on UB this year, Beth should probably invest more time on improving her floor routine as she actually, in my opinion, has a better chance for a medal on floor than on UB. Judges will probably be more inclined to score Tweddle favorably than Sacramone, and thus a clean routine could easily get Tweddle on the podium.

Cassy Vericel (France)

Results: 2008 Europeans-7th place, 2007 Worlds-3rd place, 2007 Europeans-4th place

Pros: Vericel has improved her A-score to a 6.3 and for whatever reason French gymnasts always seem to be scored pretty favorably, with Vericel being no exception. Unexpected to contend for a world FX medal, she hit a clean routine and played off of other's mistakes to win the bronze at last year's world championships. She has solid form and generally good landings on this event.

Cons: Vericel suffers from inconsistency, dropping to 7th at this year's Europeans by stepping out of bounds twice. Her artistry is something to be desired and lacks the international name that the other top floor contenders have.

Outlook: Vericel's world medal marked the only world medal for France during the entire quadrennium. Veribel is unlikely to win an Olympic FX medal due to her lack of artistry, inconsistency, and pressure of being France's lone hope for an individual medal. She would need to win an Olympic FX medal just like she won her World FX bronze, playing off of other's mistakes.

Jiang Yuyuan (China)

Results: 2008 Chinese Nationals-6th(tie), 2008 Doha World Cup FX champion, 2007 Olympic Test Event-5th place, 2007 Worlds-4th place

Pros: Jiang has superb artistry and has solid tumbling as well, boasting a 6.3 A-score. She won the Doha World Cup FX competition with only a 5.8 A-score. She hit a clean routine at the 2007 Worlds to finish 4th, and scores very well when she cleanly hits a routine. Jiang's lighthearted personality, similar to that of Shawn Johnson, should get her the scoring favor she needs to get a medal.

Cons: Jiang has been inconsistent in floor event finals as of late, steeping out of bounds at both the 2007 Olympic Test event and the recent Chinese Nationals. She lags a little behind some of the other contenders in terms of power in her tumbling and steady landings. Jiang's errors at the recent Chinese Nationals do not bode well for her being able to win an FX medal in Beijing.

Outlook: Jiang will need to outscore her compatriot Sui Lu in prelims just to get the final, but in my opinion should do so because of Sui's lack of experience. Jiang's inconsistency issues could prevent her from medaling in FX finals in Beijing, but she still could do so if Jiang puts together a clean routine for the finals.

And if Cheng Fei or Jiang Yuyuan doesn't make floor finals.........

Sui Lu (China)

Results: 2008 Chinese Nationals FX champion(tie)

Pros: Sui Lu has an excellent 6.4 A-score, and at Chinese Nationals showed a good combination of solid tumbling, form, and artistry. In the little that we have seen from Sui Lu she has shown to be a consistent gymnast on this event.

Cons: Sui Lu tremendously lacks experience, with the Olympics possibly being her first major senior international meet. She lacks personality which could weaken her political favor with the judges, as will her being a new face on the scene.

Outlook: Sui Lu actually, in my opinion, has a better chance for an FX medal than Jiang Yuyuan, but it remains to be seen whether Sui will crack under the pressure. Sui's alarming experience and potential for lower scores from international judges who hardly know her name make me believe that she will miss qualifying to the FX final due to the opportunity-crushing rule of only two gymnasts per country advancing to an individual final.

Thoughts on Predicted Reserve Athletes

Daiane dos Santos (Brazil)- Whether Daiane (famously and incorrectly pronounced "DNA" by Bart Conner) will be at top form on this event is something that Brazil is holding their breath over. Daiane was still struggling as I mentioned in my Tianjin World Cup analysis post and, with less than 90 days to go until the Olympics I am expecting a solid, but unspectacular effort from dos Santos that will ultimately fall short of qualifying for finals.

Anna Pavlova (Russia)- Viewers saying OMG this is the most artistic floor routine of the quadrennium are incorrect, but Pavlova does have a clean and elegant routine that should score favorably in Beijing. She will need to upgrade her routine up from its current 5.9 A-score if she has any hope of making FX finals, however.

Ana-Maria Tamirjan (Romania)- Recovered from leg injury that kept her out of last year's Worlds to win European FX bronze medal. Has a 6.0 A-score and will need to upgrade to make finals due to the early position Romania drew (1st subdivision).

Predicted Podium:

Gold: Sandra Izbasa (Romania)

Silver: Cheng Fei (China)

Bronze: Shawn Johnson (USA)

I am predicting that Cheng Fei will have a small error, enough of an error to allow Izbasa to pass her with a clean routine. Johnson will not have her absolute best routine (perhaps an OOB) but political favor and reputation will save the day to get her on the podium. However, Tweddle could easily pass Johnson with a clean routine. Sacramone will need mistakes from other competitors; the judges always find SOMETHING to mark her off for, whether it be a missed dance series or an incomplete jump or turn. Yuyuan, Vericel, and Ferrari are too inconsistent to be trusted for a medal on this event. Floor finals are going to be close, however, no matter what shape everyone will be in on the day of the competition.

Next Post: Not sure yet LOL

Note: I am not doing a UB final Outlook post until USA's are over, just to see what shape Liukin/Memmel are in. A BB final Outlook post will have to wait until Chinese Olympic team has been announced.

That is all.

April Gymnastics News Round-Up

Above: He Kexin, the breakout Chinese sensation due to her mind-boggling ability on the uneven bars. However, there is much speculation of whether she is age-eligible for the games.

The month of April had several events including the European Gymnastics Championships, Cottbus Cup, Maribor World Cup, and NCAA Gymnastics Championships. Because the Pacific Rim Champs were at the very end of March and I wasn't blogging at this time, I will include thoughts on that competition as well. Without further ado:

The Good

• Nastia Liukin's new beam set is looking FANTASTIC. It is perfectly composed, she looks very much at ease and calm with it and THANK GOD she took out the back pike at the end of her acro series. Her 2.5 twist dismount looks very easy for her now, so we may just see her go back to a triple twist come nationals/oly trials. Also, her insanely difficult UB set (7.7 A-score) will help her cause out in the AA and UB finals as well as the U.S.'s hopes for team gold come Beijing.


• He Kexin's bars set is incredibly difficult (7.7 A-score too) and yet she makes her work look like she's competing the easiest routine in the world. Her jaeger1/2-jaeger combo makes me think that she could do it in her sleep. She is also incredibly consistent on that event despite her unimaginable difficulty.


• Sandra Izbasa's new floor routine is lovely. It is not balletic, but it suits her calm yet powerful style perfectly. This is the first time that I've ever seen her emote or smile in a floor routine, and I find hers to be one of the best Romanian floor routines since the days of Silivas (when gymnasts actually had time to dance). Her tumbling is superb and I would sooo love for her to win FX gold in Beijing.


• Xiao Sha showed much confidence at the Cottbus Cup. She fell twice in the warm-up for beam finals. The first competitor up, she hit both skills she missed in warm-up PERFECTLY and ended up winning gold their and also the bronze on FX. One of Xiao Sha's trademarks is her one-arm solute after she finishes a front skill on beam, and for me this shows much more attack and confidence than a regular two-arm solute or no solute at all.


• Samantha Shapiro was very composed after the music stopped early on in her floor routine at the Pacific Rim champs. She is a bit of a shaky competitor, so this should help her out with confidence.


• Darlene Hill showed much courage by winning FX gold at the Pacific Rim just weeks after her grandmother, who raised her, passed away.


• There were several strong performances from the Chinese at a pre-olympic trials meet in China; the U.S. is going to have to watch out for the strong A-scores of the Chinese girls if they want to win olympic team gold.


• Oksana Chusovitina is likely going to compete in her 5th olympic games, I believe a record for a gymnast of any kind. Oksana is looking great so far this year, winning vault golds at Cottbus, Europeans, and at the Doha World Cup in March.


• Elizabeth Tweddle's new Toe-on Tkatchev 1/2 is extremely innovative.


• Ksenia Semionova's improved UB form and dismount.


• NBC's new olympic site.


• Georgia overcoming the loss of Courtney Kupets to win their 4th consecuitive NCAA title at home.

The Bad

• Elizabeth Tweddle losing a medal to Dariya Zgoba (UKR) due to the judges not crediting her new bars release (that I mentioned earlier) because of missing her straddle back to handstand afterward. Actually, Beth didn't even miss the straddle back; she made it to handstand, taking an involuntary 1/2 turn and recovering quite well afterwards. Discrediting Beth of this skill was most uncalled for.


• Inconsistency from the potential top 2 European AAers, Steliana Nistor and Vanessa Ferrari. I mentioned both of these girls in my AA outlook post, and right now both of their outlooks don't look good. Nistor appears to be in good physical form but has suffered several mistakes so far this year, particularly at the Cottbus Cup. Ferrari looked terrible at the beginning of the year in regional Italian meets posted on YouTube. She improved for Europeans, but still left the competition empty-handed. If Nistor and Ferrari show up to Beijing looking the way they have lately, the European judges will likely lobby to get Nastia's ex-soviet style toward the top of the medals stand.


• So far this year we have yet to see Alicia Sacramone or Chellsie Memmel. This is not neccessarily bad news on Sacramone's part, but for Memmel's olympic chances it is. Even the ever-optimistic Chellsie mentioned on her WCSN blog that the recent Karolyi camp "didn't go quite as I planned." No word yet on what that means, but Chellsie's current condition is likely still not where she needs it to be to go to Beijing. I do still think she will make the team, albeit barely.


• Li Shanshan has been looking shaky on balance beam, her absolute money event to make the Chinese olympic team. Shanshan's grace, power, and composition on beam is truly worthy of an olympic gold medal, and it would be a shame to see her not go to Beijing.


• Jade Barbosa looking shaky on every event except floor at Cottbus. Like Steliana and Vanessa, Jade has gotten her year off to a somewhat shaky start and may not get the olympic momentum in terms of political favor with weaker performances prior to the games.


• Daiane dos Santos didn't show anywhere near her full difficulty at Cottbus, despite her saying that her injuries are fully behind her. As the past has proven, Daiane tends to let the pressure get to her, even when injury-free.


• Irina Krasnyanska being bumped-off the European team in favor of Dariya Zgoba, who only competed bars.

The Controversy of the Month

Is He Kexin really old enough to compete at the 2008 olympic games? It's been an ongoing rumor that apparently the Chinese coaches upped her birthdate a year so that she would be eligible to compete in Beijing. Whether it is true or not, the Chinese coaches have good reason to do this, with He being an early favorite for UB gold at the olympics. There is no legitimate proof for her being too young, and she certainly doesn't look even close to being as young as Kim Gwang Suk did in 1991-1992. The Chinese delegation, in my opinion, will let He Kexin go to Beijing EVEN IF they know they are doing something very illegal. The pride of China is at stake especially in the women's team final, and without Kexin China could potentially be deprived of two possible gold medals. What the FIG will do, if anything, remains to be seen. Pending charges from the FIG of her being too young before the olympic games are unlikely; the FIG likes to be sneaky in their political tactics. I mentioned in my team final post that the Chinese have tended to get lower-than-deserved scores in team finals at the previous two worlds, which means that the judges might be very strict with the scores awarded to Kexin and the Chinese girls in general for this age controversy. Not sending Kexin to the olympics basically admits to everyone that she is indeed too young, and this shows unneccessary weakness on China's part towards the judges. The FIG might be incredibly stupid, however, as there were Romanians (Goegan, Marinescu) that were too young to compete in the '92 and '96 olympics, respectively, and yet no one noticed until about a decade later and by that time it was WAY too late for anybody to do anything. If He Kexin is really too young, this is unfair to the U.S. team who can't send Rebecca Bross, Samantha Shapiro, or Jordyn Weiber; any of whom might fix the USA's current drought on uneven bars. The Chinese will obviously do anything to win, but I really do hope that Kexin is age-eligible. I don't want another scandal overshadowing the competition that these athletes have trained their entire lives for.

What are your thoughts on Kexin's supposed age falsification and the current outlook of the gymnasts?

Next Post: Chinese women's olympic team selection outlook

That is all.