Olympic UB Final Outlook

The apparatus final to watch at these summer Olympics in Beijing, China, is the women's uneven bars final. All of the medal contenders on this apparatus have been upgrading their uneven bar routines over the past year like crazy to provide you with a thrilling showdown between several different styles of bar work. Bars queen Svetlana Khorkina of Russia may have retired, but that doesn't mean you should miss this battle between gymnasts from countries such as China, USA, Russia, Great Britain, and even Romania and Germany likely to have athletes taking part in this final. Among all the apparatus finals being contested in the Olympics, the uneven bars final in Beijing is one event NOT to be missed.


Predicted Bars Finalists:

Marie Sophie-Hindermann (Germany)
He Kexin (China)
Nastia Liukin (USA)
Chellsie Memmel (USA)
Steliana Nistor (Romania)
Ksenia Semionova (Russia)
Elizabeth Tweddle (GBR)
Yang Yilin (China)


Predicted Reserves:

Anja Brinker (Germany)
Hong Su Jong (PRK)
Dariya Zgoba (Ukraine)


The Contenders (Note: The A-scores I have listed are for what athletes have either competed or have publicly stated that they plan on competing)


Marie-Sophie Hindermann (Germany)

Results: 2008 German Nationals-3rd place, 2008 Europeans-9th place(qualifying), 2007 Worlds-5th place

A-score: 7.3

Pros: Hindermann is appreciated for her very clean, correct style on the uneven bars. Form deductions that others suffer from do not apply to Hindermann, especially when it comes to not cowboying her double front dismount. Marie has upgraded her set to potentially .5 over where it was last year.

Cons: Hindermann is very consistent with NOT hitting her bar set. Hindermann would've challenged for the European title on bars earlier this year, but a failed dismount in prelims took away her chances of competing in the finals. She also had issues at the recent German Nationals, and only placed 3rd on this event in a competition she could've easily won.

Outlook: I predicted Hindermann would make bars finals because her A-score is higher than all of my predicted bars reserve gymnasts. Hindermann has yet to really put it all together on this event since last year's worlds. However, upgrades and good form could make Hindermann an outside medal threat at the Olympics if she hits her routine.


He Kexin (China)

Results: 2008 Chinese Nationals Bars Champion, 2008 Cottbus World Cup champion, 2008 Doha World Cup champion

A-score: 7.7 (rumored upgrades)

Pros: He Kexin is the solid favorite for uneven bars gold at these Olympics. Her consistency is remarkable, given the fact that she has yet to miss her extraordinarily difficult routine at a major competition. He Kexin's reliance on pirouettes is less so than her main rivals Nastia Liukin and Yang Yilin, which means there is less room for potential handstand deductions for Kexin. Stamina has not appeared to be an issue at all for Kexin's set, which is something that top bars challenger Liukin cannot say.

Cons: He Kexin's underage rumors could end up backfiring on the Chinese, with the judges having the option of giving a tight execution score to Kexin in order to prevent her from winning gold. Kexin withdrew from the recent Barcelona World Cup for reasons unknown, and also withdrew from the finals of the Tianjin World Cup due to "exhaustion." These recent occurrences could mean that Kexin is not as physically and mentally prepared for the Olympics as she would like.

Outlook: He Kexin has dominated bars throughout the entire year and will be tough to beat in Beijing. Consistency, lack of deductions, and incredible difficulty look to be the right combination for gold. The only things that are standing in the way are He Kexin dealing with the pressure herself and possible political disfavortism from the judges who are known to be relatively tight with the Chinese gymnasts' scores.


Nastia Liukin (USA)

Results: 2005-2008 USA Bars Champion, 2008 Pacific Rim-2nd place(tie), 2007 Worlds-2nd place, 2006 Worlds-2nd place, 2005 World Bars Champion

A-score: 7.7 (though unlikely, if Liukin connects Tkatchev + Pak she would have a maximum A-score of 7.9)

Pros: Nastia is a formidable challenger on this event because of her exquisite body line, good form and high difficulty. Nastia showed improvement in her bar work at the recent U.S. Nationals, especially when it came to hitting handstands. Judges are generally inclined to score tall girls favorably on this event, and Liukin is no exception. Nastia has also competed in three world bars finals, medaling in all of them, and her top rival He Kexin doesn't even have the experience of a world championship under her belt.

Cons: Nastia occurs deductions right off the bat for cowboyed form on her double front 1/2 dismount, in addition is usually a bit off handstand in her Ono 1.5 pirouette. Liukin has been struggling with maintaining her stamina throughout the routine and generally has less-than-desired landings on her dismount. Liukin has also been on the losing end twice during close bars races at the last two world championships.

Outlook: Nastia's #1 priority prior to the Olympics is cleaning up her dismount, which has about a .3 form deduction and additional deductions if she were to have a faulty landing. Liukin shouldn't be subject to another questionable loss of a bars gold medal, as the bars winners at the last two world championships (Elizabeth Tweddle and Ksenia Semionova) were from countries that had yet to win a medal in the competition. With Liukin's top rivals likely to be the two Chinese, Nastia shouldn't be subject to a loss due to the judges wanting to award the gold medal to someone who not from an especially dominant gymnastics nation. However, Nastia's scores and domestic and international competition have yet to match those of He Kexin, and might need a sizable error on her part to win the gold.


Chellsie Memmel (USA)

Results: 2008 U.S. Nationals-2nd place, 2006 Worlds-2nd place (qualifying), 2005 Worlds-2nd place, 2003 Co-World Bars Champion

A-score: 7.0 (stated it could be as high as 7.2)

Pros: Chellsie has strong uneven bar work and her competitive spirit has always made her a favorite of the international judges, which should continue due to the fact that Memmel has even upgraded since her shoulder injury of doom. Chellsie's extremely consistent bar work and amplitude with her releases are also assets to contend for a bars medal.

Cons: Even at top form, Chellsie is .5 behind the top A-scores on this event. This means that Chellsie would really need to rely on a big mistake from at least one of the top bars gymnasts to get a medal, and so far this year Kexin, Yilin, and Liukin have all looked pretty consistent on this event.

Outlook: Chellsie's upgrades make her a very likely candidate to get into bars finals, but medaling is a different story. However, Memmel's competitive nature would make her likely to do a great routine in bars finals and if another top challenger falls under the pressure Chellsie would be right there to snatch a spot on the podium. Because of a lower start score, any podium finish will likely come by default for Memmel, unfortunately.


Steliana Nistor (Romania)

Results: 2008 Europeans-2nd place, 2007 Worlds-6th place, 2006 Worlds-7th place

A-score: 7.3

Pros: Steliana is a very well-trained athlete, and in typical Romanian fashion can cover up a mistake like no other. Steliana is quick thinking enough to save any pirouette that is not completed and rearrange her routine accordingly. Steliana is also a very consistent gymnast, especially on this event, and often sticks her landings cold which is not something many other gymnasts can do here.

Cons: Steliana's form is something to be desired and at the Europeans in April she lost the bars title to Ksenia Semionova despite hitting the routine with a .3 A-score advantage over Semionova. Nistor also tends to suffer from deductions from missed handstands for her multiple pirouetting skills in her routine. Lagging behind Liukin, Yilin, Kexin, and others with her start value also doesn't help Nistor's bid for a bars medal.

Outlook: Steliana is a consistent gymnast but doesn't have the finest quality bar work like that of the other top bar workers. As a competitor she is a very reliable gymnast and is able to work through errors efficiently in her routine, but like Memmel a medal on bars for Nistor will likely come at the expense of other gymnasts' errors.


Ksenia Semionova (Russia)

Results: 2008 Moscow World Cup Bars Champion, 2008 European Bars Champion, 2007 World Bars Champion

A-score: 7.2 (potentially 7.6 if she connects tkatchev + 1.5 pirouette + jaegar but has yet to show this combo)

Pros: One of the lone bright spots for the Russian team in this entire quad, Ksenia has strong political favor from the eastern-bloc nations to score her well as one of their best hopes for an individual medal of any gymnastics event for the women. Ksenia is generally a consistent bars worker and could be a top challenger for UB gold if she adds the aformentioned connection, thus only putting her .1 behind Liukin, Kexin, and Yilin in terms of A-scores.

Cons: Ksenia has been noted to have a stock routine, i.e. a routine that really doesn't have anything truly original. Semionova suffers form deductions for her Deltchev release, as well as her piked double arabian dismount, the latter of which she is sometimes downgraded on because she tucks her legs in the second salto. Also, if Semionova were to not upgrade to the aformentioned combination (which she so far happens), her start value would be sizably behind the other top bars workers.

Outlook: Semionova's technique looks to make her capable of adding the 1.5 turn into an immediate jaegar, and the Russians should know that such an upgrade is necessary for a UB medal of any color. Still, Semionova's bar work might not be on par with Tweddle, Liukin, Yilin, and Kexin because of form and other deductions, however Semionova always seems to be scored favorably on this event in any major competition.


Elizabeth Tweddle (GBR)

Results: 2008 Europeans-4th place, 2007 Worlds-4th place, 2006 World Bars Champion, 2005 Worlds-3rd place, 2003 Worlds-3rd place

A-score: 7.4 (rumored upgrades)

Pros: Tweddle has a very consistent bars routine and has had the highest B-score at the last two world championship bars finals because of her good form and lack of handstand deductions (she is more reliant on releases than pirouettes). Tweddle has a very innovative bar routine and has her own element, a toe-on tkatchev 1/2, which she is hoping to have named after her. An upgraded start value of 7.4 and even more potential upgrades to come will boost Tweddle's bar medal chances considerably.

Cons: A failed connection between a toe-on tkatchev and a pak salto lost Tweddle a medal at last year's world championships. Beth has been inconsistent with getting her toe-on full prior to her dismount to the handstand, and also lost credit for her new release skill when she failed to make her straddle back to handtand afterward (though she has since changed the combo to an Ezhova transition). Tweddle has never finished lower than 4th in a world bars final, but all of these little errors seem to plague Beth in bars finals, as does an older body which tends to be more prone to injury.

Outlook: Everyone is thinking about the He Kexin vs. Nastia Liukin showdown, but don't count out Elizabeth Tweddle. She needs to upgrade from her already high 7.4 A-score about .2 to really be in the hunt and thus won't have to rely on other's mistakes to get on the podium. With Beth's good technique and experience she could go as far as taking everyone by surprise by winning gold, but she will need to be flawless in order to do so.


Yang Yilin (China)

Results: 2008 Tianjin World Cup Bars Champion, 2008 Chinese Nationals-2nd place, 2007 Worlds-3rd place

A-score: 7.7 (rumored upgrades)

Pros: Yang Yilin is an extremely consistent competitor who has upgraded her bar routine a whooping .7 in the last year and is currently competing her 7.7 A-score bar routine cleanly. Yang has excellent form and has a good combination of high release moves with beautiful pirouetting. Yang also won't have to deal with the pressure of her teammate, He Kexin, who will have to take far more pressure on her shoulders when competing in Olympic bars finals.

Cons: Yang Yilin was given relatively tight execution marks throughout the competition on bars at last year's worlds, and has yet to beat He Kexin on this event. Yang is not as much of a well-known name as Liukin, Kexin, Tweddle, and Semionova and thus judges might not be as inclined to score her highly. Like Liukin, Yang Yilin earns a lot of her start value in her pirouetting and a few missed handstands here and there will make the difference in such a tight field.

Outlook: Yang Yilin could be a huge surprise on this event, with the potential to upset the favorites and win the gold. However, judges will likely be more inclined to score Kexin and Liukin more favorably than Yilin, and Yang cannot afford any short handstands or dismount steps or hops if she wants gold. A medal is very possible on this event, but like Tweddle Yang will likely need close to a flawless routine if she is going for the top spot on the podium.


Reserve Athletes

Anja Brinker (Germany)- Has a 7.1 A-score and has a very clean and mostly consistent work on this apparatus, though an apparent fall at the recent German Nationals took her out of the medals there. However, I would say that if one of the above predicted bars finalists were to not make it to bars finals due to a fall/injury (mainly Hindermann because of her recent bars issues), I would predict Brinker to sneak in there if she hits her prelims routine.

Hong Su Jong (PRK)- Very consistent and clean bar worker, but as of last year's worlds only has a 6.6 A-score. I don't actually predict many upgrades for Su Jong on bars at the Olympics because of the Koreans likely turning their focus toward Su Jong's vault efforts.

Dariya Zgoba (Ukraine)- Zgoba is an excellent bar worker but it will be hard, though certainly possible, task to make it in to Olympic bars finals. Zgoba has a potential 7.0 A-score but often suffers from form deductions and (correct me if I'm wrong) a compostition deduction for standing on the low bar to transition to the high bar. I would predict Zgoba to get into bars finals if Hindermann and Brinker make mistakes, enough so that Zgoba could compete in the biggest meet of her career.


Predicted Podium:

Gold: He Kexin (China)

Silver: Yang Yilin (China)

Bronze: Nastia Liukin (USA)


With Kexin and Yilin more likely to upgrade than Liukin and with them being more consistent than Liukin, I do predict that these two Chinese girls will finish 1-2 and Nastia will have to settle for bronze. As far as Tweddle and Semionova are concerned, Tweddle I would actually predict to be battling for a medal more so than Semionova because of her experience, good execution and difficulty, and generally good scoring from the judges. Semionova's scoring favor will likely depend on whether Russia gets its team medal back that they so heartbreakingly lost last year. Even with a tkatchev + 1.5 turn immediate jaegar upgrade, I don't see Semionova being able to put together a competitive effort for the finals when she has yet to compete her full difficulty this year and with form that can be a big reason for deduction.

Next Post: USA/China Bubble Girls Analysis

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Chinese Gymnastics Championships and Tidbits from the Gymnastics World

Above: The Chinese are looking for their gymnasts to dominate all at the Olympics. It looks like gymnastics spectators will see lots of images of the Chinese flag at the medal ceremonies in Beijing.

The Chinese National Gymnastics Championships are going on right now, with event finals still to take place. The Chinese women are looking stronger by the minute and the reports from the recent Karolyi camp that gymnasticsbabie from the addicted2gym blog posted were not overly promising. China is oddly putting their nationals very early in the run towards the Olympics. China has made several administration errors in the past which have detracted the team's potential, both in terms of politics and consistency. Choosing their best Olympic team ever too early is not a wise task for a team so determined to get gold. Whether there will be a Chinese Olympic trials after this I do not know, but if anyone does know please leave a comment. The Chinese gymnasts are looking great, but they may peak at the wrong time.

Thoughts from the Chinese Nationals (team + AA finals)

• Gymnastics is a sport Chinese take huge pride in, and yet I didn't see a single person in the stands during "team finals". As a dancer, I know performing in front of hundreds, sometimes thousands of people is a hell of a lot different than just rehearsing in front of a few people. Though I've never had to flip down a 4-inch wide beam, dealing with nerves and pressure is historically China's weakness, and ability alone is not going to get them gold if they can't block out the pressure.


• Last year at the Chinese Nationals, the judges gave severely low scores to the girls. However, this year the judges are going all out with ridiculously high scores that rival the scores of the Scam Cup. China is clearly trying to prove the world that they are the best at all costs, and the USA judges are likely to respond with super high scores at their Nationals. Expect scores at the Olympics to be similar to that of last year's Worlds: generous but not overly generous.


• I'm very happy Jiang Yuyuan won the AA with a 63.3. Scores at Scam for Liukin (63.425) and Johnson (63.1 with a fall) were perhaps a bit more generous than those of the Chinese Nationals, but not much. This proves that Jiang is capable of even winning the AA on a good day, but the judges will likely boost up the scores of Johnson, Liukin, and Ferrari/Nistor more than those of Jiang. This will be especially true if China wins the team final.


• Yang Yilin has a 7.7 A-score on UB! AAAAAAAH! The Chinese are going all out in the upgrade department, and Yang managed a generous 15.95 in the AA final even with a fall on UB. This cost her the Chinese AA title, but Yang has come back strong from her Cottbus injury and is improving greatly towards her hope of an AA medal. However, her under-the-radar placements and lack of personality will not make the AA final judges vote in her favor.


• Cheng Fei's new FX music doesn't suit her at all, and I frankly don't think Cheng is going to win FX gold in Beijing. (her tumbling in team finals was relatively weak) Cheng is a polished, but inexpressive dancer, and the more dramatic flamenco-like routine she had for what seemed like ages suited her more appropriately, as did her Don Quixote routine at the '04 Olympics. With that said, Cheng looked strong on vault and beam and has made event finals (obviously) on those three events.


• He Kexin has yet to miss her UB set. She's on the team for sure, but will she respond readily to the intense Olympic pressure? At this point I have serious doubts about her age.


• Zhou Zhuoru made UB finals, but not FX finals. Her floor exercise, set to the music of "Politics at Work" from the Jackie Chan movie "The Myth," is filled with drama and emotion. In my opinion, Zhou's choreography on floor is some of the best I've seen in this entire quadrennium, though sadly I can't say the same for her relatively weak tumbling.


• Zhang Nan has improved, but I still don't believe she will make the Olympic team.


• Li Shanshan hit an outstanding beam routine in team finals, closing in on Xiao Sha's apparent hold on the final specialist spot on the team. However, Shanshan needs another great routine in event finals to potentially go to the Olympics.


• Deng Linlin was very shaky in team finals, falling on beam and floor. However, she came back to place 3rd in the AA.


• Sui Lu is looking good and the Chinese coaches may feel her high A-scores are enough for the team.


• China's outstanding difficulty has the potential to kill any hopes for the USA girls to win. However, this great difficulty can lead to injury, inconsistency, and not being able to peak at the right time. China's administrative errors are likely to continue, now that the whole world is watching them.


• Event finals will be taking place shortly. Go to International Gymnast magazine's site to see the official list of qualifiers.

Other Tidbits from the Gymnastics World

• Addicted2Gym and Gymnastics and Stuff posted thoughts on the recent events of the Karolyi training camp competition; I advise you to check them out.


• Japan named their Olympic teams. Women: Kyoko Oshima, Miki Uemura, Yu Minobe, Koko Tsurumi, Yoko Shintake, Mayu Kuroda. '92 Chinese Olympian He Xuemei's Olympic comeback was unsuccessful. On the men's side, reigning World AA bronze medalist Hisashi Mizutori failed to make the team with a 17th place (!) finish at the Japanese Nationals. Apparently, he has a severe shoulder injury, but if he is indeed recovered by the time Beijing comes around the Japanese will be slapping themselves in the face with their unquestionably early team selections.


• The Russian men defeated current World bronze medalist Germany at the Europeans in Laussaune. An apparent resurgence for the Russian men is bad news for Germany and USA's quest for an Olympic team medal.


• Martha Karolyi has invited several USA national team members who have yet to compete this year to a "friendly" (i.e. not much pressure) international meet at the Karolyi ranch. Among them are Chellsie Memmel, Alicia Sacramone, Ivana Hong, Darlene Hill (the Inside Gymnastics article called her "Darling Hill" UPDATE: Darlene has officially gone back to her birthname of "Darling"), Ashley Priess, and age-eligible juniors Mattie Larson and Corrie Lothrop. This meet was created so that Martha K. can look at these bubble girls and see what shape they're in and begin deciding who will go to Beijing (if she already hasn't LOL). Athletes from Italy, Germany and Canada are scheduled to take part. Italy is unlikely to send Ferrari, but Germany may send some of their top girls. I would love to see Marie-Sophie Hindermann again, she's one of my favorites from the German team because of her smile, excellent body line, and good form on her double front UB dismount. (She doesn't cowboy her legs! YAY!)

Opinion of the Day

Samantha Peszek should stop screwing around with uneven bars upgrades in favor of doing the Amanar. Sam looks to have enough height and power to do a Yurchenko 2.5 twist but there was no word from the recent camp that she was doing it. UB upgrades aren't neccessary, despite the fact that the national team staff is frantically trying to get girls that can swing bars. Sam P. ain't bad on bars, but she has yet to outscore Shawn Johnson. Peszek showed improvement on every event at the 2008 Scam Cup, finishing 3rd AA. However, Peszek needs to maximize her strength (vault) for the good of the USA team. Sam even being aloud to compete AA at the olympics is unlikely, but if Sam is really training an Amanar and successfully lands it at Nationals/Olympic Trials than I will be extremely happy for her. However, if Peszek comes to compete with a DTY and decent UB work than she has obviously not been intelligent with specifically what she can contribute to the team.

Interesting Note: Darling Hill trains at Will-Moor School of Gymnastics, the same gym Jennifer Sey went to before and after training at Parkettes.

Next Post: Chinese Nationals Event Finals Analysis

That is all.