Shayla Worley: The New Hollie Vise?

That, my friend, is not a good thing. Hollie Vise was given an adoring fluff piece by NBC at the 2000 International Team Championships. Then, Hollie was a 12 year-old girl fantasizing of making the 2004 Olympic Team while training her very hardest at WOGA, the same gym teammate Carly Patterson trained at, going on to win AA gold at the 2004 Olympics and where current nine-time world medalist Nastia Liukin trains. Long story short, it didn't happen. Hollie was strong in 2003, winning beam and placing 2nd AA at Nationals and winning gold with her team and on uneven bars at Worlds. However, a back injury slowed her 2004 efforts and didn't compete until the Olympic Trials. By this time she was just competing on her two best events, bars and beam. Judges were stingy with Vise's scores at the Oly Trials while locks such as Patterson, Courtney Kupets, and Courtney McCool were given the benefit of a doubt time and time again. Hollie fell of beam at the Karolyi camp meet and appeared to be off the team. However, in a decision that shocked many, Hollie was left off the team entirely, not even being chosen as an alternate. The team certainly would've used a healthy Vice in Athens, replacing Patterson's shaky UB effort and Kupets' injury on beam in team finals. The U.S. underestimated the need for good back-up UB/BB workers, and this was a job that Vise, or Chellsie Memmel, could've gotten done.





Now, four years later, reports have been swirling around (including mine) that Shayla will not compete in Beijing, Shock Horror, because of the widely rumored but unconfirmed injuries she has been suffering from and the resurgence of Chellsie Memmel and Ashley Priess' UB work. A blog called The Olympic Effect (which unfortunately I don't think its editor is still blogging) had a USA women's selection post outlook of its own back in January. In it, the editor basically is saying Shayla will be on the team due to her strength on all four events and undeniable political favor, saying things such as Worley "is one of Martha Karolyi's favorites" and that she could be a "formidable challenger for the Olympic AA crown." First of all:

• Martha Karolyi's supposed "favorites" are the Fab 3 (Shawn, Nastia, and A-Sac) because they bring home the most medals. Martha does like Shayla and favors her a bit, but I wouldn't say all that much over the other USA bubble girls. Martha has mellowed a bit since Athens and won't go to town with favoring gymnasts before the games. After all the team is being announced on July 20th, the LAST POSSIBLE DATE that the USOC will allow any Olympic teams to be announced. Martha will be considering EVERYTHING when it comes to making the squad and Shayla will not have everything Martha wants even if healthy.


• Shawn and Nastia are locks for the two U.S. AA final spots barring a major disaster. Shayla's DTY upgrade appears unlikely due to the injuries, her bars needs a bit of upgrading and her dismount NEEDS TO GO, standing Arabian needs to be abolished from her beam routine, and floor exercise lacks the raw power that we see from A-Sac/Shawn/Sam P.

The Injury Report: Addicted2Gym reported that Shayla left the camp early because of back/hamstring issues. (remember that a teared hamstring was what kept her out of most of 2006). I am very sure that this is true, because Shayla did not compete in the Karolyi International meet with all the other girls who have only competed once or not at all this year. (Shayla has competed only once this year, competing very lackluster at Scam). Shayla was also passed over for BOTH the Italy meet and Pacific Rim when USA didn't have a full A-list team at either meet. There were many reports prior to the Scam Cup that Shayla was injured, yet still showed up at Madison Square Garden and competed nervously. Shayla likely was injured, but competed anyway just so she wouldn't piss off or concern Martha K.

What does Shayla contribute to the team? Shayla can certainly contribute to the team, but to what extent is debatable. On vault, there is a possible DTY upgrade which she was planning on competing at the American Cup (she told this in an Inside Gymnastics interview) but instead competed a cleaner Yurchenko 1.5 twist at that event. A DTY, unless if done very well, is unnecessary with Shawn, A-Sac, and Sam P. likely candidates to compete vault in team finals. Uneven bars is her best contribution to the team, with a 6.7 A-score. Chellsie Memmel and Ashley Priess scored a high of 16.0 (6.9 A-score) and 15.8 (6.6 A-score) at the recent Karolyi meet. Bridget Sloan is said to have a 6.7 A-score as well, and all of this improvement from other bar workers has the potential to decrease Worley's chances of making the squad significantly, as this is her money event. Shayla is good here, but her inconsistent double front dismount which is also severely cowboyed is a hotbed for deduction. Shayla's very good on beam, but Martha should feel safe with the fab 3 competing potentially 16+ scores in team finals. On floor, Shayla's lack of difficulty and power make the national team staff to likely shy away from using her in a team final there.

Calling For Donations: Shayla publicly announced that she wanted all of her fans to donate money to enable all of her family to go to Beijing and see her go for the gold in person. People have been quick to point out that this is very premature, as theoretically we don't even know if Shayla will make the Olympic Trials yet. (though of course she will, even if injured) However, the team is announced July 20th, just 2.5 weeks away from the start of Olympic competition. This would be far too little time to get all of the money she would need to get ALL of her family to Beijing safe and sound. Shayla is perhaps being a little arrogant with this, perhaps already thinking that she will be on the Olympic team. But absolutely, if she wants to get money, it is best to start getting it now. My only question is: What will happen to the money if she doesn't make the team?

Crazy Coach: Jeff Wood is somewhat of a younger, American version of Bela Karolyi. He is a big bear of a man, he is very intense out on the floor, yet shows his weak spot by hiding behind the curtains during Shayla's beam routines. He also gives his big bear hugs, practically suffocating the stick-thin Worley in the process. I noticed Jeff Wood's demeanor get much more stern at the 2007 Nationals, despite Worley having a great competition and finishing 2nd AA. Jeff could be pushing Shayla through injury, which could prove extremely detrimental to her quest of going to Beijing. Difficulty plus Execution reports that Jeff Wood was extremely angry that Chellsie Memmel and Ashley Priess are surpassing Shayla's UB standards. Jeff needs to calm down, but it couldn't hurt to upgrade on bars for her sake of making the team and also for the sake of the USA team, unless of course she IS HURT.

Final Thoughts

More and more it is beginning to look like Shayla will be lucky to even be an alternate. As I was analyzing her contribution to the USA team, it really appears as though that UB is the only event which we need her on, and we don't even need her there if Chellsie and Ashley continue to improve on that apparatus. This is of course considering that Shawn, Nastia, A-Sac, and Sam P. are healthy and roaring to go at the arrival of the Games. However, if Chellsie gets the 5th spot on the team and the last spot comes to down to the bars specialists, i.e. Shayla and Ashley, I would actually pick Shayla. Ashley doesn't contribute much of anything besides bars and her start value (as of now) is .1 below Shayla's. The judges know Shayla a bit more and will likely score her a tad more generously than they will with Ashley. Shayla is a potential back-up on beam and vault if she has a good DTY. However, if Ashley beats Shayla on bars at both Nats/Oly Trials, they have to pick Ashley. Period. With all that said, Shayla's spot is in jeopardy. She has to deliver just like everyone else and MUST HIT all four bar routines a Nats/Oly Trials. Everyone considered Shayla a lock last year. However, now it is DO or DIE for Shayla. Shayla doesn't want to be another Hollie Vise, a talented performer who peaked at the wrong time and let an injury step in the way of her Olympic dream. Sadly, it could very well happen.

Totally Random Comment: Bela Karolyi lists one of his favorite things he and Martha like to do in Houston is going to the ballet. Houston Ballet is an excellent company, and I always feel honored to be dancing at its academy, where I am currently training.

That is all.

Was Chellsie Memmel's Injury Worth It?

Above: Chellsie winning her 2003 World title on Uneven Bars. Three years later, she substained a devastating shoulder injury at the 2006 Worlds. Can Chellsie fight back and be recovered in time to make the 2008 U.S. Olympic Team?

This is the question burning among many gymnastics fans: Was Chellsie Memmel's shoulder injury of doom and going on to compete with it at the 2006 World Championships-team finals worth all the pain and suffering that she has been through in the last year and a half? We will soon find out in about two months, when the U.S. Olympic Women's Gymnastics Team is officially announced at the Karolyi Ranch. As many of you probably know, a foot injury hindered Memmel's 2004 efforts and thus had to settle for an alternate position. It is widely considered by gymnastics fans that Memmel has stuck around another four years to make the Olympic Team, this time to actually compete and represent her country in Beijing. Chellsie's career has been filled with tremendous ups and downs:

2003- An injured Chellsie has a sub par performance at the U.S. Nationals in her home state of Wisconsin. Passed over entirely for the World Championship team, she was given a lesser assignment to compete at the 2003 Pan American Games. By that time she was fully recovered and won the AA and UB golds at the Games. Meanwhile the U.S. was having a nightmare prior to the beginning of the World Championships in Anaheim. From Courtney Kupets' Achilles injury to Ashley Postell's flu to Annia Hatch's knee injury left the U.S. staff no choice but to call Chellsie over immediately from Santo Damingo to Anaheim for the World Championships. There, Chellsie turned in a stunning performance, LEADING the USA girls to a team gold and winning individual gold on the bars. With this incredible performance at such short notice Chellsie was considered a lock for the U.S. Olympic team set to go to Athens.

2004- Chellsie started off the Olympic year pretty strong with a 3rd place finish at the Scam Cup. However, disaster struck in April when Chellsie broke the metatarsal in her foot. This injury kept her out of Pacific Alliance Championships, Nationals, and Olympic Trials. Despite Chellsie's heroic effort in 2003, the selection committee was not persuaded to put her on the team with her only competing in one major meet that year. Chellsie later won the 2004 World Cup final on uneven bars after the games.

2005- After missing a potential first U.S. title to Nastia Liukin, Memmel was better than ever at the 2005 Worlds. There, she won the AA by .001 of a point and took silver on uneven bars and balance beam as well. Success here also prompted Memmel to stick around in hopes of finally making an Olympic team in 2008.

2006- Chellsie opened up the year with a tie at the Pacific Alliance Championships with Liukin. While training an overshoot on bars in practise Memmel injured her shoulder, but it didn't appear serious and came back to U.S. Nationals, finishing a solid 4th AA and hitting two clean bar sets despite only beginning to practice full bar routines one week prior to the competition. Chellsie still had shoulder problems by Worlds but due to ongoing pressure from Martha K. withdrawing was simply not an option. Chellsie was strong in preliminaries, qualifying 1st AA and also making bars and floor finals. USA trounced the field in preliminaries and the team was considered a shoo-in for the gold. However, Chellsie fell on uneven bars in team finals and aggravated her shoulder injury even further. Going on to compete beam and floor to ensure the silver medal for the U.S., the next day she couldn't lift her arm above her head.

2007- Chellsie finally started competing at the last part of the year, winning bronze on beam and floor at the Olympic Test Event and winning gold on floor and silver on beam at the Toyota Cup in Japan. Chellsie was still struggling on once her strongest event, uneven bars.

2008- ?

My Thoughts on the Subject Matter

• Chellsie's father, Andy, commented that Chellsie finishing the competition at the 2006 Worlds team finals with a severe injury was "gutsy and stupid". Gutsy, yes. Stupid? Chellsie is a tough ass competitor and probably knew right when she injured her shoulder that no matter what the cost she had to finish and get a medal for the team. Chellsie not competing beam or floor would've meant using a girl that wouldn't have been at all prepared to compete; Natasha Kelley and Ashley Priess were unwisely sidelined from the team finals lineup entirely. This would've seriously put USA's medal chances at stake in a competition they should've easily won. Had Chellsie not finished the meet, she would be in Martha K.'s dog house for the rest of her career for what likely would've been a lost team medal for the U.S.



• I hope this injury proves to be a blessing in disguise. Not competing in most of 2007 hopefully allowed Chellsie's body to rest somewhat and give her a renewed intensity for her quest to make the '08 Olympic team. Chellsie is not one of those girls that needed 2007 performances to make her case to Martha; she's done that already. For Chellsie, it is about proving that she is in shape and can contribute scores to USA, especially on uneven bars.



• When Martha K. decides her Olympic team, she has to consider how the international judges would love to see Chellsie again. Chellsie has had strong political favor amongst the international judges at each of the three world championships she has competed in. Judges may not love Chellsie's form and artistry, but what they do love is her unwavering competitive spirit.



• If Chellsie keeps up, or even improves upon, her 16.0 performance that she marked at the recent Karolyi International Meet, she is on the team even if it is just for bars. Martha K. can rely on Chellsie to hit and score well a hell of a lot more than she can rely on Shayla to do so, and plus Chellsie has the international recognition that Shayla doesn't have.



• Chellsie is the toughest competitor out there. Period. Shawn Johnson won everything in sight in 2007, but could people rely on her to severely hurt her shoulder and finish her routine AND THEN go to beam and land on a punch front on one leg and STILL STAY ON. Oh yeah, and nail a floor routine on top of that. ALL of this Chellsie and Chellsie ONLY has done.



• I, like mostly everybody else, is gunning for Chellsie Memmel to make the team. Please, Chellsie, just prove your undeniable competitive spirit one more time.

That is all.

2008 Olympic Floor Exercise Outlook

Above: The apparent top five contenders in the women's floor final: Cheng Fei (CHN), Sandra Izbasa (ROM), Alicia Sacramone (USA), Shawn Johnson (USA), and Elizabeth Tweddle (GBR)

I just checked out the USA Gymnastics website the other day and it appears as though floor will actually be the first event final contested, followed by vault on the same day. As event finals are in a three-day format, bars will be held the 2nd day and beam will be held the 3rd day. With the decline in artistry on floor exercise making it a less pleasing event to look at, it is probably a wise decision to close the event on beam, where all the drama is sure to come. The floor exercise used to be about a combination of good tumbling and nice choreography. The former Soviet Union was second to none when it came to choreographing floor routines with tumbling that was ahead of its time and dance which commanded the audience's attention. However, the new code has helped change floor exercise dramatically. Good dance is no longer necessary, nor is mediocre dance for that matter. What the FIG calls dance are triple turns and awkward twisting jumps that are rarely ever fully rotated and seldom ever look good. Tumbling requires not three tumbling passes, not four, but five. Double twisting double backs have grown significantly, as has the famed double twist side pass. However, admist all of the demands of tumbling, some gymnasts still find time to be artistic. In the floor exercise, the winner will be sure to land all of her tumbling, not miss any dance elements/connections, and have decent enough artistry.

Predicted Floor Exercise Event Finalists:


Cheng Fei (China)


Vanessa Ferrari (Italy)


Sandra Izbasa (Romania)


Shawn Johnson (USA)


Alicia Sacramone (USA)


Elizabeth Tweddle (GBR)


Cassy Vericel (France)


Jiang Yuyuan (China)


And if something happens to either Cheng Fei or Jiang Yuyuan (only 2 per country advance)............


Sui Lu (China)



Predicted Reserve Athletes:

Daiane dos Santos (Brazil)

Anna Pavlova (Russia)

Ana-Maria Tamirjan (Romania)


The Contenders


Cheng Fei (China)

Results: 2008 Tianjin World Cup FX champion, 2007 Olympic Test Event FX champion, 2007 Worlds-5th place, 2006 World FX champion, 2004 Olympics-4th place

Pros: Cheng Fei has the potential for a 6.6 A-score on this event, the highest of anyone in the world. Armed with a tucked double-double and possibly a piked full-in at the end of her routine, Cheng has all the necessary tumbling passes and polished artistry to get her gold. Cheng generally does well at home, and could be unbeatable if she hits everything cleanly.

Cons: Inconsistency is the question mark for Cheng. At the 2007 Worlds event finals, Cheng had a great routine going but stepped way out of bounds after a faulty landing on her piked full-in dismount, costing her a medal. Cheng is unlikely to use her full tumbling difficulty until event finals, and this could prove detrimental if she can't pace herself accordingly while competing with the enormous pressure of going for gold at home.

Outlook: Cheng is perhaps considered the one to beat at this event, but certainly has stiffer competition hear than on vault. Her tumbling has looked a tad shaky this year, but Cheng is known to peak at the right time. The question mark for everyone is whether she can put all of her difficulty together for a clean, and perhaps unbeatable routine, or whether a fluke error will keep her off the podium entirely.

Vanessa Ferrari (Italy)

Results: 2007 Worlds-6th place, 2007 European FX champion, 2006 Worlds-3rd place

Pros: Ferrari is capable of a solid 6.3 A-score, including competing difficult skills such as a double-double. At two World championships and one European championship she has hit three mostly clean routines, providing good evidence that she will hit if she makes FX finals in Beijing. She showed improved artistry at the recent Europeans and scored a 15.3 in AA finals at the 2007 Worlds, one of the highest floor marks of the entire meet even with a severe foot injury.

Cons: Ferrari has struggled with injury and a maturing body over the last year and missed even qualifying to the FX event finals at the Europeans in April. She has competed a watered-down set so far this year which won't qualify her toward Olympic FX finals even if hit cleanly. Ferrari has had issues in the past of stepping out of bounds.

Outlook: It remains unclear if we will even see Ferrari at her full difficulty come Olympics, and whether she will be able to hit her routine cleanly. I expect Ferrari to come to the Olympics armed with big tricks, and if she hits them cleanly she will be definitely be a strong contender for a FX medal. However, small errors and form issues have lowered her placement on floor in the past, and thus I am not expecting Ferrari to bring home an Olympic FX medal.

Sandra Izbasa (Romania)

Results: 2008 Cottbus FX champion, 2008 European FX champion, 2007 Worlds-8th place, 2006 Worlds-6th place

Pros: Izbasa has good artistry, superb tumbling, and decent form. Her 6.5 A-score is very formidable, as was her winning Europeans with a whooping 15.775. Her tumbling has been extremely consistent this year and has renewed life into her artistry. She will have strong political backing from any anti-China or anti-USA judges, being Europe's best hope for FX gold.

Cons: Izbasa has faltered in the last two World Championship FX event finals, stepping out of bounds numerous times. At the 2007 Worlds she was penalized heavily for underotating a twist pass. Izbasa could end up competing four routines in prelims, team finals, and AA finals, which would likely weaken her stamina by the time event finals roll around.

Outlook: Watch out Cheng, Johnson, and A-Sac, Izbasa has been coming out like gangbusters with her excellent FX performances this year. If she keeps this up she could well be an Olympic gold medalist. However, Izbasa's performances at the last two Worlds do not point strong signs to her hitting in Olympic FX finals, and as I mentioned earlier stamina could be a big issue for Izbasa, as FX finals are just one day after AA finals which she is likely to compete in.

Shawn Johnson (USA)

Results: 2007 World FX Champion, 2007 U.S. FX champion, 2007 Pan American Games-2nd place

Pros: With a rumored tucked full-in for her last pass, Shawn would have a strong 6.4 A-score. Floor is arguably Shawn's most consistent event, hitting all of her 2007 FX routines. Good form, excellent tumbling, and decent-enough artistry are a good combination for her success here. Shawn also has strong political favor, which was brought to light when she beat Alicia Sacramone at the 2007 Worlds despite an OOB and several other hops on her landings.

Cons: Shawn's whip + triple twist upgrade has been inconsistent in terms of full rotation this year, and reports from the camp indicated that Shawn didn't land her full-in upgrade at the end of her routine. Even with that upgrade she does lag a tad behind Izbasa and Cheng's A-scores on this event. Several observers have pointed out that Shawn travels so much on her tumbling passes that if she grew an inch she would be out of bounds for sure.

Outlook: It will be a tall order to repeat as FX champion, but it could happen if others make mistakes and if Shawn hits cleanly. This is a good event for Shawn and with strong political favor she should be in the mix for a medal and on a perfect night a gold medal. Shawn's #1 concern appears to be staying in bounds.

Alicia Sacramone (USA)

Results: 2007 Worlds-2nd place, 2007 U.S. Nationals-2nd place, 2006 U.S. Nationals FX champion-tie, 2005 Worlds FX Champion, 2005 U.S. FX Champion

Pros: Alicia has the entire package on this event, with sky-high tumbling, nice form, and attractive dance. Alicia hit three good FX routines at the 2007 World Champions, two of them with the pressure of being the last competitor of the night. Alicia's ease with all of her tumbling passes look like they can be upgraded without issues as well.

Cons: Alicia has rarely been favored by the international judges, who much prefer Shawn's cute and smily demeanor. Alicia's switch-side 1/2 was downgraded at the 2007 Worlds FX event final, costing her the gold. Alicia had reason to be upset after losing the 2007 World FX title, but her stormy reaction after the loss will make matters far worse with judges not wanting to score Sacramone highly due to her lack of sportsmanship. As of now, Sacramone has only a 6.2 A-score on this event, which is much lower than what she will need to medal in Beijing.

Outlook: Alicia's lack of political favor and lower A-score seem to make it unlikely for Sacramone to even reach the podium. She definitely has the potential for upgrades (double-double, piked double Arabian, triple twist) but whether she will decide to use any of them remains to be seen. Sacramone is excellent on the floor, but will need upgrades and mistakes from other competitors to get a gold medal.

Elizabeth Tweddle (GBR)

Results: 2008 Europeans-2nd place, 2007 Worlds-7th place, 2007 Europeans-2nd place, 2006 Worlds-4th place(tie)

Pros: Elizabeth has an upgraded 6.4 A-score on this event, and hit a great routine at the Europeans this year to win silver. This A-score is the 3rd highest A-score in the world that is currently being competed among the FX medal contenders. Tweddle is generally scored favorably by the international judges, being the only British female gymnast with a shot at winning a medal in any event.

Cons: Tweddle hit a lackluster routine at the 2007 Worlds event finals. Tweddle's artistry is relatively weak compared to the other top floor workers, and has suffered from stepping out of bounds or underotated landings in pressure situations in the past. Tweddle tends to be jinxed with getting injuries substained near or during a major competitions, i.e. an injury substained while practicing bars at the 2005 Worlds prevented her from competing floor exercise.

Outlook: Tweddle's 6.4 A-score, if hit cleanly, can get her a medal on this event. With Kexin, Yilin, and Liukin upgrading like crazy on UB this year, Beth should probably invest more time on improving her floor routine as she actually, in my opinion, has a better chance for a medal on floor than on UB. Judges will probably be more inclined to score Tweddle favorably than Sacramone, and thus a clean routine could easily get Tweddle on the podium.

Cassy Vericel (France)

Results: 2008 Europeans-7th place, 2007 Worlds-3rd place, 2007 Europeans-4th place

Pros: Vericel has improved her A-score to a 6.3 and for whatever reason French gymnasts always seem to be scored pretty favorably, with Vericel being no exception. Unexpected to contend for a world FX medal, she hit a clean routine and played off of other's mistakes to win the bronze at last year's world championships. She has solid form and generally good landings on this event.

Cons: Vericel suffers from inconsistency, dropping to 7th at this year's Europeans by stepping out of bounds twice. Her artistry is something to be desired and lacks the international name that the other top floor contenders have.

Outlook: Vericel's world medal marked the only world medal for France during the entire quadrennium. Veribel is unlikely to win an Olympic FX medal due to her lack of artistry, inconsistency, and pressure of being France's lone hope for an individual medal. She would need to win an Olympic FX medal just like she won her World FX bronze, playing off of other's mistakes.

Jiang Yuyuan (China)

Results: 2008 Chinese Nationals-6th(tie), 2008 Doha World Cup FX champion, 2007 Olympic Test Event-5th place, 2007 Worlds-4th place

Pros: Jiang has superb artistry and has solid tumbling as well, boasting a 6.3 A-score. She won the Doha World Cup FX competition with only a 5.8 A-score. She hit a clean routine at the 2007 Worlds to finish 4th, and scores very well when she cleanly hits a routine. Jiang's lighthearted personality, similar to that of Shawn Johnson, should get her the scoring favor she needs to get a medal.

Cons: Jiang has been inconsistent in floor event finals as of late, steeping out of bounds at both the 2007 Olympic Test event and the recent Chinese Nationals. She lags a little behind some of the other contenders in terms of power in her tumbling and steady landings. Jiang's errors at the recent Chinese Nationals do not bode well for her being able to win an FX medal in Beijing.

Outlook: Jiang will need to outscore her compatriot Sui Lu in prelims just to get the final, but in my opinion should do so because of Sui's lack of experience. Jiang's inconsistency issues could prevent her from medaling in FX finals in Beijing, but she still could do so if Jiang puts together a clean routine for the finals.

And if Cheng Fei or Jiang Yuyuan doesn't make floor finals.........

Sui Lu (China)

Results: 2008 Chinese Nationals FX champion(tie)

Pros: Sui Lu has an excellent 6.4 A-score, and at Chinese Nationals showed a good combination of solid tumbling, form, and artistry. In the little that we have seen from Sui Lu she has shown to be a consistent gymnast on this event.

Cons: Sui Lu tremendously lacks experience, with the Olympics possibly being her first major senior international meet. She lacks personality which could weaken her political favor with the judges, as will her being a new face on the scene.

Outlook: Sui Lu actually, in my opinion, has a better chance for an FX medal than Jiang Yuyuan, but it remains to be seen whether Sui will crack under the pressure. Sui's alarming experience and potential for lower scores from international judges who hardly know her name make me believe that she will miss qualifying to the FX final due to the opportunity-crushing rule of only two gymnasts per country advancing to an individual final.

Thoughts on Predicted Reserve Athletes

Daiane dos Santos (Brazil)- Whether Daiane (famously and incorrectly pronounced "DNA" by Bart Conner) will be at top form on this event is something that Brazil is holding their breath over. Daiane was still struggling as I mentioned in my Tianjin World Cup analysis post and, with less than 90 days to go until the Olympics I am expecting a solid, but unspectacular effort from dos Santos that will ultimately fall short of qualifying for finals.

Anna Pavlova (Russia)- Viewers saying OMG this is the most artistic floor routine of the quadrennium are incorrect, but Pavlova does have a clean and elegant routine that should score favorably in Beijing. She will need to upgrade her routine up from its current 5.9 A-score if she has any hope of making FX finals, however.

Ana-Maria Tamirjan (Romania)- Recovered from leg injury that kept her out of last year's Worlds to win European FX bronze medal. Has a 6.0 A-score and will need to upgrade to make finals due to the early position Romania drew (1st subdivision).

Predicted Podium:

Gold: Sandra Izbasa (Romania)

Silver: Cheng Fei (China)

Bronze: Shawn Johnson (USA)

I am predicting that Cheng Fei will have a small error, enough of an error to allow Izbasa to pass her with a clean routine. Johnson will not have her absolute best routine (perhaps an OOB) but political favor and reputation will save the day to get her on the podium. However, Tweddle could easily pass Johnson with a clean routine. Sacramone will need mistakes from other competitors; the judges always find SOMETHING to mark her off for, whether it be a missed dance series or an incomplete jump or turn. Yuyuan, Vericel, and Ferrari are too inconsistent to be trusted for a medal on this event. Floor finals are going to be close, however, no matter what shape everyone will be in on the day of the competition.

Next Post: Not sure yet LOL

Note: I am not doing a UB final Outlook post until USA's are over, just to see what shape Liukin/Memmel are in. A BB final Outlook post will have to wait until Chinese Olympic team has been announced.

That is all.

Karolyi Meet and Tianjin World Cup Analysis

Two meets have happened just recently, the Karolyi International meet and the Tianjin World Cup. The Karolyi International meet provided glimpses as to who we will see on the U.S. team in Beijing, and who we won't. The Tianjin World Cup took place right after the Chinese Nationals, and went on despite the devastating earthquake that is affecting much of China.


Thoughts From Karolyi International Meet

• The internet has been awaiting with eager anticipation of Ivana Hong's upgrades. And we got................ none. Ivana won the AA at the Karolyi meet, but individually speaking she just doesn't bring much to the table. Ivana should've invested in either an Amanar upgrade or significant bar upgrades. Her UB A-score, 6.3, is the same as Shawn's, and her newfound strength on beam (15.8) doesn't help much either, with the fab 3 (Shawn, Nast, and A-Sac) sure to compete on that event in an olympic team final. Ivana looked more consistent with her routines, but this means nothing if they don't have the needed difficulty. Unlikely to be on the team, the U.S. may still need her as an alternate for good VT/BB work.


• Ashley Priess looks good, with UB scores ranging from 15.75-15.8. Priess should look to improving her A-score (6.6) by a tenth or two to give her the needed edge on that apparatus over Shayla Worley. Ashley will need to capitalize on her known consistency at Nats/Oly Trials/Karolyi Camp to get on the team, but it could happen. If Priess makes the team, she could be somewhat of an Annia Hatch presence at the Olympics as she only contributes majorly on one event.


• I don't know what to think about Chellsie Memmel's performance. She looked to be playing it safe in the AA, only scoring a 14.5 on bars (6.2 A-score). She only competed an FTY and scored a 15.35 on beam and a 14.55 on floor. Chellsie looked stronger on beam and floor at the Olympic Test Event and Toyota Cup meets she competed in at the closing of 2007, so I am guessing that these were watered-down routines due to the lack of importance of this event. In event finals, Memmel stunned all with a 16.0 in UB finals (6.9 A-score). All I can say is, where did that come from?


• Away from competition since 2007 Worlds, Alicia Sacramone looked strong. Despite rolling her ankle earlier in the year, Alicia vaulted a handspring Rudi vault with ease (15.65) and was solid on floor (15.25 AA/15.5 EF). She has upgraded her beam set to a potential A-score of 7.0, and scored a 16.15 in AA finals. This may have been a little inflated, but it shows that Alicia is fully ready to compete BB in team finals and can potentially make Olympic BB finals as well. This is even more bad news for Shayla Worley, as Martha K. probably will feel A-Sac will take care of the lead-off spot on BB in team finals with her upgrades over the potentialy high-scoring but inconsistent Shayla.


• Dark horse olympic threat Mattie Larson is improving, placing 4th AA and 2nd on FX. However, her lack of experience is unlikely to get her on the team but she might be wise to stick around on a potentially dominant USA team en route to London 2012.


• Darling Hill (BTW I much prefered Darlene as her first name) is unlikely to make the team. The internet has been abuzz with speculation of whether she could make the team, especially after her FX win at the Pacific Rim Championships. Her highest FX score was a 15.1 in event finals, but still only won the bronze. Injuries have kept her from upgrading to a DTY and competing uneven bars, one of her best events. Darlene will need to win floor at Nationals or Olympic Trials, with A-Sac and Shawn hitting. The probability of this scenario is low, and sadly I have to say the same for her Olympic chances.


• Martha K. and USAG should've let these girls compete at the U.S. Classic at Houston instead of creating this meet especially for them. USAG could've generated much greater revenue that way and the girls would experience even more of a competition-like atmosphere.


• Not much to report in terms of the international competitors; Paola Galante (ITA) placed a respectable 5th AA behind Hong, Priess, Memmel, and Larson. Alyssa Brown, the Canadian who had a horrific FX fall at the 2008 Scam Cup, won vault finals without A-Sac competing a second vault.

Tianjin World Cup

Vault

Gold: Cheng Fei (CHN)-Duh she won. Didn't compete either the Amanar or the Cheng, though she did do an apparently shaky Cheng (15.45) in the prelims. 14.975 average score.

Silver: Ksenia Afanasyeva (RUS)-Haven't heard much about her, but a silver on this event and a bronze on UB help out her Beijing cause greatly. 14.350 average score.

Bronze: Kristina Goryunova (RUS)-Like Afanasyeva, a late bloomer looking to peak at the right time. Competed solid A-score vaults, 5.8 and 5.2. 14.062 average score.

Other Notes: Elyse Hofner-Hibbs and Nansy Damianova finished 5th and 6th, respectively. They both earned above the required score to gain points to make the Olympic team, thus adding to my prediction that these two girls will be in Beijing and Kristina Vaculik will not.

Uneven Bars

Gold: Yang Yilin (CHN)- Getting better and better on this apparatus, and with a 7.7 A-score she could possibly win UB gold in Beijing. She definitely appears to be peaking at the right time. 16.925 score.

Silver: Elyse Hofner-Hibbs (CAN)-Competing a 6.8 A-score, but apparenty had an error and scored only a 15.35. This however is enough to earn her even more points to represent Canada in Beijing.

Bronze: Ksenia Afanasyeva (RUS)-Only a 6.1 A-score on this event and beat her compatriot Svetlana Klyukina, who finished 4th.

Other Notes: Daiane Dos Santos finished 6th with a 6.4 A-score. Koko Tsurumi of Japan and Vaculik apparently struggled and finished 7th and 8th, respectively.

Shock Horror: He Kexin won preliminaries with a whooping 17.2, the highest international score of any kind to date. However, she withdrew from finals due to "exhaustion." I don't think this is serious or that it will affect Kexin's spot on the Olympic team, but it could mean that she may be ill-prepared when it comes to dealing with the pressure of the Olympics and may be peaking too soon.

Balance Beam

Gold: Cheng Fei (China) Without the triple full dismount, Cheng's routine is worth a maximum of 6.7. It seems as though we won't see this dismount in Beijing (her 2.5 twist just barely got around in Tianjin), thus weakening her chances of making Olympic beam finals. Beam has looked a tad shaky from Cheng so far this year but her performance in event finals at this meet was strong even without the dismount. 15.925 score.

Silver: Kristina Goryunova (Russia)- A strong performance in a meet in China bodes well for her olympic chances, though the Russians probably still don't need her with European beam champions Semionova and Lozechko in tow. However, a 15.675 is hard to overlook.

Bronze: Irina Krasnianska (Ukaraine)- A 6.9 A-score means that Krasnianska is back and looks to be on the Ukranian Olympic team after being left off the European team in favor of Zgoba competing bars only. Krasnianksa had a steady set with a couple wobbles; slightly underscored 15.525.

Other Notes: Xiao Sha apparently fell in the beam final, finishing 4th after easily winning prelims. Xiao blew her last shot to make the team, and I am thus officially changing my Chinese Olympic Team prediction by replacing her with Li Shanshan.

Floor Exercise

Gold: Cheng Fei (CHN)- Cheng Fei only competed a 6.2 difficulty score here. 15.550 score.

Silver: Yang Yilin (CHN)- Like I mentioned earlier she is really improving her strength on the power events, thus greatly increasing her AA medal chances. 15.275 score.

Bronze: Kristina Goryunova (RUS)- Another good showing from this unknown Russian. 14.400 score

Other Notes: Daiane dos Santos is STILL struggling on floor and I have many doubts as to whether she will have her full difficulty back for Beijing. She may be pacing herself, but she will certainly need a few competitions prior to the Olympics to get her full difficulty consistent. Finished 4th here with a 14.375.

Other News-Olympic Draw

The Chinese women drew the worst qualifying position imaginable for them, competing in the first subdivision and starting on the balance beam. China's consistency has improved, but it will take a lot of good preparation on China's part to do well while competing in this most undesirable position. China's first subdivision can make politically biased judges have an "excuse" to mark down the Chinese girls as they are known to do. Romania competes in the first subdivision, but starts on vault. The U.S. competes in the 2nd subdivision, which is just fine for them. However, ending on balance beam will be a tough task, but the girls performed very well while starting on beam at the 2007 Worlds. Russia competes in the 3rd subdivision, thus giving the team more opportunity for coveted event finals spots. Japan, Great Britain, and Italy will compete in the 2nd subdivision, which puts all of these teams at some risk for making team finals even though Italy should qualify barring a disastrous performance. Germany, Ukaraine, and Australia will compete in the 3rd subdivision. Brazil and France will compete in the last subdivision, providing these two bubble teams a huge advantage to make team finals and win AA and event finals spots as well. At this point I expect all the finalists at the 2007 Worlds-team finals to compete in team finals in Beijing, though I am predicting that Australia will steal Great Britain's former spot in qualifying for that competition.

Also, check out the Martha Karolyi interview at Inside Gymnastics. I was pretty dissapointed at Martha K's lack of knowledge of what is going on outside the U.S. You would think someone coming from an ex-Communist country would be tempted to follow the rest of the world's every move. After all, Chinese head coach Lu Shanzhen commented to International Gymnast Magazine how she is eagerly awaiting the U.S. Nationals and how they upgraded He Kexin's UB routine (and presumably Yang Yilin's also) to 7.7 start values after seeing that Nastia Liukin had this start value in her arsenal. What is she doing at the ranch all that time that she is not pushing zee gurlies to zee limit? She even referred to He Kexin as "some Chinese girl." And apparently she just heard that Kexin has a 7.7 A-score on bars, like Liukin. Well guess what, Martha? Double the pleasure, Yang Yilin now has a 7.7 UB A-score too. However, I was happy that she wasn't quick to point out that the U.S. is the huge favorite for team gold or anything like that.

One final note: Giulyx14 reported that Carlotta Giovannini (ITA) is planning on upgrading to an Amanar and also plans on adding an extra hald-twist to her 2nd vault, thus making it a RO 1/2 on tucked Rudi off vault. These upgrades, if done successfully, will boost Giovannini's vault medal chances considerably.

Next Post: Olympic FX Finals Outlook

That is all.

Olympic Vault Final Outlook

Above: Defending three-time world vault champion Cheng Fei of China is expected to win olympic vault gold, but expect her to face stiff competition en route to the potential prize

Kicking off the event finals for women's artistic gymnastics in Beijing will be the vault final. Though there aren't many girls out there who do compete two different vaults, required for an apparatus vault final in any competition, the ones that do are impressive. The vault final will host eight competitors from around the globe, and people can happily say goodbye to the days where gymnasts could have clean, safe vaults or a weak 2nd vault and still medal or win. Now, gymnasts are trying to have the magic number of 6.5 recorded as the start value for BOTH vaults, thus giving the gymnast a huge opportunity for a win. Expect more difficulty than ever, with Amanar and Cheng vaults destined to take center stage in Beijing. Whoever can handle great difficulty and do it successfully will stand on the top spot of the podium in Beijing.

Predicted Vault Finalists

Jade Barbosa (Brazil)

Oksana Chusovitina (Germany)

Cheng Fei (China)

Carlotta Giovannini (Italy)

Anna Pavlova (Russia)

Alicia Sacramone (USA)

Hong Su Jong (PRK)

Hong Un Jong (PRK)

Reserves:

Francesca Benolli (Italy)

Daria Joura (Australia)

Marissa King (GBR)

The Contenders

Jade Barbosa (Brazil)

Results: 2008 Cottbus Cup-2nd place, 2007 Worlds-5th place, 2007 Pan American Games Vault Champion

Pros: Jade competed four clean Amanar vaults at the 2007 Worlds and a youtube video showed her successfully completing a Cheng vault as well, though with a big step. Jade has good form, good height, and good distance on all of her vaults and could be a big challenger in the vault final with two 6.5 A-scores.

Cons: Jade hasn't done the Cheng in a major event and her layout Podkopayeva vault alternative is worth only a 5.6. Competing four routines each in prelims, team finals, and AA finals weakened Jade's competitive fire by event finals at the 2007 Worlds, missing medals in both vault and beam. She tends to step out of bounds while vaulting her Amanar and doesn't have the international name recognition on this event because of the fact that she has yet to win a world vault medal.

Outlook: Jade looked weak on vault at the Cottbus Cup, but if Jade's ability to peak at the right time holds true in 2008, I expect her to unveil both an Amanar and a Cheng. Whether she can keep up her condition by the end of the competition and block out her nerves will make the difference, but a great set of vaults can vault Jade to gold.

Oksana Chusovitina (Germany)

Results: 2008 European Vault Champion, 2008 Doha and Cottbus World Cup Champion, 2007 Worlds-6th place, 2006 Worlds-3rd place, 2005 Worlds-2nd place

Pros: Oksana Chusovitina has all the experience one could ask for, now 32 years old (and will be 33 in Beijing). She has won three gold medals on the vault this year alone and is consistently competing a handspring Rudi (6.3 A-score) this year and is even rumored to be training a Tsuk Double (she currently competes a Tsuk 1.5). Oksana won vault at Europeans even while falling on her 2nd vault ahead of several competitors who didn't suffer a fall. She also has strong political favor due to her long competitive career and what she has done for the sport.

Cons: Oksana has relatively weak form on her vaults, and failed to even make vault finals at the '04 Olympics when coming in as the reigning world champion. A Tsuk Double upgrade looks to be unlikely due to her fall on a Tsuk 1.5 at Europeans. She lags behind others on her A-scores, not even having one vault to show for at a 6.5 start value.

Outlook: Oksana has looked good so far this year and should be in a tight battle for bronze in Beijing. Gold and silver look to be out of her reach due to the 6.5 start values on both vaults for Cheng, Su Jong, and possibly Barbosa. Oksana may need to rely on a mistake of another competitor to get a medal, but expect her to be right there if another gymnast falters.

Cheng Fei (China)

Results: 2005/2006/2007 World Vault Champion, 2007 Olympic Test Event Champion, Undefeated on vault during the entire quadrennium

Pros: Vault is Cheng Fei's event to lose. She is armed with an Amanar and a Cheng, the vault that bears her name. She has competed both 6.5 A-score vaults in pressure-packed situations and has already landed the Cheng this year. Cheng mixes incredible height and power with excellent lines, thus making for huge scores on this event. She has posted the highest international vault score, 16.0, twice.

Cons: Cheng Fei will undoubtedly feel intense pressure in winning her specialty event at home. She fell on her Amanar at the 2007 Worlds team finals and barely landed her Cheng during prelims. Judges can get political if they choose to, like when they downgraded her vault during the 2006 Worlds team final. She has yet to compete her Amanar this year, which could cause consistency issues come Olympics.

Outlook: Cheng Fei will be tough to beat for vault gold. Even if Su Jong and Barbosa come armed with two 6.5 A-score vaults, they lack the polish and experience of Cheng Fei and if all three hit Cheng should be sure to win. Judges favor Cheng for the most part, and politics that occured at the '06 Worlds was probably toward the team and not specifically her. Cheng's focus is getting her two difficult vaults to her feet cleanly, and if that happens she is sure to be the gold medalist.

Carlotta Giovannini (Italy)

Results: 2008 Europeans-2nd place, 2007 European Vault Champion, 2007 Paris World Cup Champion

Pros: Giovannini competes strong, consistent vaults with lots of height and distance. Her second vault is a unique RO 1/2- on front tuck- full off, and this different kind of vault should get solid execution marks from the judges. She also has good political favor with Italian Bruno Grandi being the head of the FIG.

Cons: Giovannini's two vaults are worth only a 5.8 and a 5.5, respectively. A lack of two big-risk vaults, let alone one, make it unlikely for Giovannini to be on the medals stand. Her form is also somewhat loose in the air as well.

Outlook: Making vault finals will be a great accomplishment for Giovannini and should hope to do herself and her country proud, even if a medal is unlikely to be placed around her neck.

Anna Pavlova (Russia)

Results: 2008 Europeans-6th place, 2006 Worlds-5th place, 2005 Worlds-5th place, 2004 Olympics-3rd place

Pros: Anna Pavlova successfully landed an Amanar vault at the Russian championships back in February. This puts her right on par with Sacramone, Barbosa, and Chusovitina in terms of A-scores (assuming they all don't upgrade). She is known for clean lines and steady landings which make for good execution marks.

Cons: It is very likely that at least one of the gymnasts mentioned earlier will upgrade come August, and Anna won't have a strong 2nd vault (laidout Podkopayeva-5.6 A-score) to keep up with the top contenders. Anna lacks some of the raw power that the other top vaulters and was penalized severly for underotating, and falling, on her Amanar vault during the Europeans event finals.

Outlook: Pavlova's Amanar will be neccessary for being competitive in a vault final and we should expect her to keep it, even though she splatted it at Europeans. Anna is unlikely to medal on vault, however, because of her lacking of consistency with the Amanar, absence of power, and lacking of international recognition as a top-rate vaulter. Pavlova will need mistakes from other competitors to medal, but with her added experience it could happen.

Alicia Sacramone (USA)

Results: 2007 Worlds-3rd place, 2006 Worlds-2nd place, 2005 Worlds-3rd place, 2005/2006/2007 USA Vault Champion

Pros: Assets that Alicia has on vault are excellent form, tremendous height, and centered landings (i.e. she usually doesn't go out of bounds) NBC Olympics hinted in the Fei vs. Sacramone article that Alicia was indeed training an Amanar, which would only put her .2 behind the top vaulters in terms of A-scores. Alicia has delivered solid vault efforts at the last three worlds and one shouldn't expect things to be different in Beijing with even more experience.

Cons: Alicia may not plan to do an Amanar at the Olympics apparently do to consistency issues with front-landing vaults. If she doesn't, others will look to capitalize on their A-score advantage and Alicia could end up off the podium. Alicia has had several instances where the judges have low-balled her, including at the 2005 Worlds where Alicia competed two superior vaults to Chusovitina but still finished behind her with the bronze.

Outlook: Alicia tends to not do skills that put risk over solidity, thus weakening her potential Amanar upgrade. However, Olympic vault finals are the only event she will likely need it and with a possibility of not medaling without it, she should want to risk it. With an Amanar, Alicia can get silver and if Cheng has an error there is also a possibility of gold. Without it, it is either bronze or no medal at all.

Hong Su Jong (PRK)

Results: 2007 Olympic Test Event-2nd place, 2007 Worlds-2nd place, 2006 Worlds-7th place

Pros: Hong Su Jong has competed both the Amanar and Cheng successfully in a major international competition. On call, Su Jong has very steady landings, going as far as to almost stick her Cheng vault at the 2007 Worlds event finals. Su Jong's competitive nature changed dramatically at Worlds between 2006 where she missed both vaults in finals and in 2007 where she nearly won.

Cons: Su Jong has relatively sloppy form and regressed terribly at the 2007 Olympic Test Event, winning the silver medal in a weak field. She has yet to compete this year and lacks favortism from the judges because of the political dismay of her country. Su Jong also lacks some of the height that Cheng and Sacramone are known to get.

Outlook: Hong Su Jong should be at top form in Beijing barring injury. The PRK coaches know that Su Jong is their strongest, and perhaps only gold medal threat in any gymnastics event and thus should get her to compete at top form due to the immense pressure from the communist state. Su Jong is unlikely to win gold due to lack of political favor, but winning silver or bronze is something very possible for her.

Hong Un Jong (PRK)

Results: 2008 Maribor World Cup Vault Champion, 2007 Worlds-4th place

Pros: Su Jong's supposed twin sister, (though with PRK you never really know) Hong Un Jong has competed a DTY and a Cheng and just missed the podium at last year's worlds. If Hong Un Jong gets an Amanar by Beijing, she could be in contention for the gold too. Un Jong is also a very confident gymnast out on the floor who generally hits when pressure is on.

Cons: Read my Slovenian World Cup analysis post for why I don't think Un Jong will be getting an Amanar, and how it is skeptical that we will even see the Cheng again. Without an Amanar, Un Jong is only .2 ahead of Sacramone (w/o upgrade) and A-Sac can easily make up those tenths with form, as can Chusovitina or Barbosa. Un Jong's weak form and VERY piked body position on her Cheng provide the judges a perfect opportunity to get political and keep her off the podium.

Outlook: Un Jong can contend for a medal, but it looks like she will need both an Amanar and a Cheng to do so, or mistakes from other competitors. Un Jong's confidence look to make her perform well in vault finals, but that might not be enough for a podium finish.

The Reserve Athletes

Francesca Benolli (Italy)- Competes a 5.8 and a 5.2 start value vaults, has good power but will be lucky to make vault finals.

Marissa King (GBR) Has competed a 5.7 and a 5.4 start values, clean landings and a rough performance from another top vaulter could get King into vault finals.

Daria Joura (Australia) Don't know if she plans to compete two different vaults or not. Her 2nd vault is weak, only worth a 5.0. But with a possible Amanar and the fact that Daria is unlikely to medal on any individual event (except maybe the AA) could make Daria want to experience competing in another event final.

Predicted Medal Podium

Gold: Cheng Fei (China)

Silver: Hong Su Jong (PRK)

Bronze: Alicia Sacramone (USA)

With an Amanar Sacramone could steal silver, but as of now details of an upgrade are sketchy at best. Barbosa probably won't have the best showing because of all the routines she will have competed in prelims, team finals, and AA finals. Chusovitina could steal the bronze if Sacramone makes a sizable mistake, but since Sacramone has .1 A-score advantage (assuming neither upgrades) and superior form I would give the medal to her over Chusovitina. I find it hard to believe Un Jong will medal, as I have said I don't expect to see a clean Amanar and /or Cheng come Beijing. Cheng Fei has all the ingredients to win gold, and I expect her to hit cleanly just like she has at the last three worlds to win the gold. Though this is the same podium prediction as the actual podium of the 2007 Worlds, for me it seems the most realistic.

Next Post: Updates from Karolyi competition and Tianjin World Cup

That is all.

Chinese Nationals Event Finals and Karolyi Ranch Update

International Gymnast magazine has failed me in not bringing up the official event finals results of the 2008 Chinese Nationals. I do, however, have most of the podium finishers thanks to fanbutterfly from you tube.

UPDATE: Ha! Literally right after I finished writing this post International Gymnast Magazine had posted an article about the Chinese Nationals.


Vault

Gold: Cheng Fei (nice Yurchenko double, solid Cheng 15.812 Average Score)

Silver: Deng Shaojie (never heard of this girl, vaulted a handspring Rudi and Tsuk Double! Poor form and somewhat shaky landings, however)

Bronze: Deng Linlin (Yurchenko double and handspring pike-front 1/2, clean landings but lacks height and second vault is too weak to qualify for an Olympic vault final)

Uneven Bars

Gold: He Kexin (Duh she won. However, she over arched her low bar handstand a little bit, shock horror, but otherwise very solid 17.325)

Silver: Yang Yilin (I believe a 7.7 A-score! A couple missed handstands but very good-16.725)

Bronze: Pang Panpan (A couple form breaks and "only" a 7.1 A-score but beating Yuyuan in bars finals improves Panpan's Olympic chances ever so slightly-16.475)

Note: Sui Lu fell twice in her bar routine during event finals

Balance Beam

Gold: Sui Lu (7.0 A-score, two wobbles and a sizable step on the dismount. A 16.575?! These Chinese judges put even the Scam Cup judges to shame when it comes to the outrageous over scoring of home gymnasts.)

Silver: Guo Wei 16.500/6.9 A-score

Bronze: Zhang Nan 16.300/6.8 A-score (Good for her! However, her scoring potential is lower than that of Shanshan and Sha, and thus she still likely won't be on the team)

Other Notes: Li Shanshan hit everything in her beam routine except the godforsaken 180 degree leg-up full turn, which she fell on AGAIN. Xiao Sha fell on her two-foot layout acro series and finished 8th.

Floor Exercise

Gold: Cheng Fei (Cheng competed her tucked double-double with a bit of a low landing. Everything else was fine, adding a 2.5 twist in place of her usual double to bump up her A-mark to a 6.5. Adding a piked full-in to the end of the routine should take place at the Olympic FX event final, adding her A-score to perhaps a record-high 6.6. Cheng needs to watch out, though, because the added difficulty is known to backfire, as it did at the 2007 Worlds FX event final. Got a 16.2 with a 9.7 execution score; don't worry this score was very generous as well.

Gold: Sui Lu (I don't know why the Chinese judges like this girl so much. Her difficulty is good, yes, but she lacks elegance and her salutes at the end of her tumbling passes do not suggest any grandness or artistry like the other Chinese girls. I also noticed some crossed legs on her twists and flexed feet on her Barani on beam, though all in all she still has excellent form like all the Chinese. She takes full-advantage of combination passes on floor to rack up points. On the other hand, her triple turn on floor was excellent and could probably do a quadruple. Outrageous 9.8 execution score.

Bronze: Yang Yilin (15.675-6.2 A-score. Yang has improved greatly on the power events and can be a potential back-up on this event during team finals.)

Other Notes: Jiang Yuyuan had several issues, including an OOB on her last pass. Her expression is beautiful but she should switch her music immediately; it's far too childish.

Rumors from the Karolyi Ranch Meet

Difficulty plus Execution reports that Ivana Hong won the AA at the Karolyi Friendly Meet, ahead of Ashley Priess and Chellsie Memmel. No word on who hit what, but Northernriver reported that Priess is rumored to have a 7.0 A-score on UB. Gymnastics and Stuff also reported another rumored 7.0 A-score from Memmel on UB. Two 7.0 A-scores will help the U.S. narrow its UB deficit on China, with bars being China's strongest event. If Hong won, this hopefully means that her UB work has improved to the point where the U.S. could really use her score at Beijing. I'd much rather send Chellsie, or even Ashley, ahead of Ivana because of Ivana's inconsistency and inexperience. With Bridget being rumored to have a 6.7 A-score on UB, it is beginning to look more and more like Shayla Worley will be left off the team. Shayla brings on potentially great scores on UB and BB, but her inconsistency is something to be desired. Shayla looked injured and lacked her usual spark and confidence at the 2008 American Cup, which was probably severed when Sam P. came out of nowhere to get 3rd ahead of her. Addicted2Gym reports that Shayla left the camp because she is still battling with injuries. While much of these A-scores and points I am making are still rumors, Martha K. may end up feeling that Shayla is not needed for the team in favor of a perhaps better UB specialist, like Ashley. However, if Shayla recovers strong for Nats and Oly Trials she should still be on the team, so I won't change my prediction there.

Which Brings Me To..............

I am officially changing my Chinese Olympic Team Outlook by replacing Deng Linlin with Sui Lu. I think Sui Lu is somewhat of a trickster, but it is no doubt the Chinese judges and coaches love her and will put her on the team regardless of her alarming lack of experience. Deng is a good all-arounder, but her inconsistency and not being absolutely strong on one event look to do the trick to keep her off the Olympic team. Sui's high A-scores are just what China needs, but I suspect Sui's lack of experience and elegance will hurt her somewhat in the scoring at the Olympics. Pang Panpan is closing in on Xiao Sha/Li Shanshan's battle for the specialist spot with Shanshan and Sha counting falls in event finals. However Sha still looks to have a spot on the team in my book because of her being sent to the Tianjin World Cup along with Fei, Kexin, and Yilin. The Chinese coaches are giving her this spot to the world cup meet because of them somewhat believing in her and also because she has one last chance to prove to the coaches that she belongs on the Olympic team.

Next Post: Olympic Vault Final Outlook

That is all.

Chinese Gymnastics Championships and Tidbits from the Gymnastics World

Above: The Chinese are looking for their gymnasts to dominate all at the Olympics. It looks like gymnastics spectators will see lots of images of the Chinese flag at the medal ceremonies in Beijing.

The Chinese National Gymnastics Championships are going on right now, with event finals still to take place. The Chinese women are looking stronger by the minute and the reports from the recent Karolyi camp that gymnasticsbabie from the addicted2gym blog posted were not overly promising. China is oddly putting their nationals very early in the run towards the Olympics. China has made several administration errors in the past which have detracted the team's potential, both in terms of politics and consistency. Choosing their best Olympic team ever too early is not a wise task for a team so determined to get gold. Whether there will be a Chinese Olympic trials after this I do not know, but if anyone does know please leave a comment. The Chinese gymnasts are looking great, but they may peak at the wrong time.

Thoughts from the Chinese Nationals (team + AA finals)

• Gymnastics is a sport Chinese take huge pride in, and yet I didn't see a single person in the stands during "team finals". As a dancer, I know performing in front of hundreds, sometimes thousands of people is a hell of a lot different than just rehearsing in front of a few people. Though I've never had to flip down a 4-inch wide beam, dealing with nerves and pressure is historically China's weakness, and ability alone is not going to get them gold if they can't block out the pressure.


• Last year at the Chinese Nationals, the judges gave severely low scores to the girls. However, this year the judges are going all out with ridiculously high scores that rival the scores of the Scam Cup. China is clearly trying to prove the world that they are the best at all costs, and the USA judges are likely to respond with super high scores at their Nationals. Expect scores at the Olympics to be similar to that of last year's Worlds: generous but not overly generous.


• I'm very happy Jiang Yuyuan won the AA with a 63.3. Scores at Scam for Liukin (63.425) and Johnson (63.1 with a fall) were perhaps a bit more generous than those of the Chinese Nationals, but not much. This proves that Jiang is capable of even winning the AA on a good day, but the judges will likely boost up the scores of Johnson, Liukin, and Ferrari/Nistor more than those of Jiang. This will be especially true if China wins the team final.


• Yang Yilin has a 7.7 A-score on UB! AAAAAAAH! The Chinese are going all out in the upgrade department, and Yang managed a generous 15.95 in the AA final even with a fall on UB. This cost her the Chinese AA title, but Yang has come back strong from her Cottbus injury and is improving greatly towards her hope of an AA medal. However, her under-the-radar placements and lack of personality will not make the AA final judges vote in her favor.


• Cheng Fei's new FX music doesn't suit her at all, and I frankly don't think Cheng is going to win FX gold in Beijing. (her tumbling in team finals was relatively weak) Cheng is a polished, but inexpressive dancer, and the more dramatic flamenco-like routine she had for what seemed like ages suited her more appropriately, as did her Don Quixote routine at the '04 Olympics. With that said, Cheng looked strong on vault and beam and has made event finals (obviously) on those three events.


• He Kexin has yet to miss her UB set. She's on the team for sure, but will she respond readily to the intense Olympic pressure? At this point I have serious doubts about her age.


• Zhou Zhuoru made UB finals, but not FX finals. Her floor exercise, set to the music of "Politics at Work" from the Jackie Chan movie "The Myth," is filled with drama and emotion. In my opinion, Zhou's choreography on floor is some of the best I've seen in this entire quadrennium, though sadly I can't say the same for her relatively weak tumbling.


• Zhang Nan has improved, but I still don't believe she will make the Olympic team.


• Li Shanshan hit an outstanding beam routine in team finals, closing in on Xiao Sha's apparent hold on the final specialist spot on the team. However, Shanshan needs another great routine in event finals to potentially go to the Olympics.


• Deng Linlin was very shaky in team finals, falling on beam and floor. However, she came back to place 3rd in the AA.


• Sui Lu is looking good and the Chinese coaches may feel her high A-scores are enough for the team.


• China's outstanding difficulty has the potential to kill any hopes for the USA girls to win. However, this great difficulty can lead to injury, inconsistency, and not being able to peak at the right time. China's administrative errors are likely to continue, now that the whole world is watching them.


• Event finals will be taking place shortly. Go to International Gymnast magazine's site to see the official list of qualifiers.

Other Tidbits from the Gymnastics World

• Addicted2Gym and Gymnastics and Stuff posted thoughts on the recent events of the Karolyi training camp competition; I advise you to check them out.


• Japan named their Olympic teams. Women: Kyoko Oshima, Miki Uemura, Yu Minobe, Koko Tsurumi, Yoko Shintake, Mayu Kuroda. '92 Chinese Olympian He Xuemei's Olympic comeback was unsuccessful. On the men's side, reigning World AA bronze medalist Hisashi Mizutori failed to make the team with a 17th place (!) finish at the Japanese Nationals. Apparently, he has a severe shoulder injury, but if he is indeed recovered by the time Beijing comes around the Japanese will be slapping themselves in the face with their unquestionably early team selections.


• The Russian men defeated current World bronze medalist Germany at the Europeans in Laussaune. An apparent resurgence for the Russian men is bad news for Germany and USA's quest for an Olympic team medal.


• Martha Karolyi has invited several USA national team members who have yet to compete this year to a "friendly" (i.e. not much pressure) international meet at the Karolyi ranch. Among them are Chellsie Memmel, Alicia Sacramone, Ivana Hong, Darlene Hill (the Inside Gymnastics article called her "Darling Hill" UPDATE: Darlene has officially gone back to her birthname of "Darling"), Ashley Priess, and age-eligible juniors Mattie Larson and Corrie Lothrop. This meet was created so that Martha K. can look at these bubble girls and see what shape they're in and begin deciding who will go to Beijing (if she already hasn't LOL). Athletes from Italy, Germany and Canada are scheduled to take part. Italy is unlikely to send Ferrari, but Germany may send some of their top girls. I would love to see Marie-Sophie Hindermann again, she's one of my favorites from the German team because of her smile, excellent body line, and good form on her double front UB dismount. (She doesn't cowboy her legs! YAY!)

Opinion of the Day

Samantha Peszek should stop screwing around with uneven bars upgrades in favor of doing the Amanar. Sam looks to have enough height and power to do a Yurchenko 2.5 twist but there was no word from the recent camp that she was doing it. UB upgrades aren't neccessary, despite the fact that the national team staff is frantically trying to get girls that can swing bars. Sam P. ain't bad on bars, but she has yet to outscore Shawn Johnson. Peszek showed improvement on every event at the 2008 Scam Cup, finishing 3rd AA. However, Peszek needs to maximize her strength (vault) for the good of the USA team. Sam even being aloud to compete AA at the olympics is unlikely, but if Sam is really training an Amanar and successfully lands it at Nationals/Olympic Trials than I will be extremely happy for her. However, if Peszek comes to compete with a DTY and decent UB work than she has obviously not been intelligent with specifically what she can contribute to the team.

Interesting Note: Darling Hill trains at Will-Moor School of Gymnastics, the same gym Jennifer Sey went to before and after training at Parkettes.

Next Post: Chinese Nationals Event Finals Analysis

That is all.