tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-48539100584986866542024-02-22T03:18:15.872-08:00Polished Gymnastics 101Welcome to my blog regarding Artistic Gymnastics in preparation for the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, China. My mission is to share my completely self-taught gymnastics knowledge in an objective manner, and to put my gymnastics thoughts, predictions, and opinions as bluntly and honestly as possible without offending anyone. As you can tell by the title, I love polished gymnastics and its a shame we don't see so much of that anymore.MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-90625233459878090732008-08-06T22:34:00.000-07:002008-08-08T11:14:33.111-07:00USA Women Podium Training Commentary<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvlFyme7L_Adnt_Z9Up8cBmmLYRjH8sfuYCAoijB2obZkl25DZrpsts6HFiaVTbduHht8v39Y7Z2IY3_HLgzZB1fjWcK93KWhme34c9olhtoH0ryBHyZs5YdpkKkGyAv3A1UbNFfNXG5Bx/s1600-h/383-9.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5231962344276986018" style="margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; float: left;" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvlFyme7L_Adnt_Z9Up8cBmmLYRjH8sfuYCAoijB2obZkl25DZrpsts6HFiaVTbduHht8v39Y7Z2IY3_HLgzZB1fjWcK93KWhme34c9olhtoH0ryBHyZs5YdpkKkGyAv3A1UbNFfNXG5Bx/s400/383-9.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5231932301526304610" style="margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; width: 275px; height: 234px;" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT-RaHCBG9fNLXWlgiPSKf9MAphnOD-1dt1HmdhJDm8yKb4Q8MsepADB1wLUdP9P2YNQWj4qZPC_R8_QKNKsNF_x8ZocSCRtyMmCZcp8z8Ffkm9Ee9pT33Udqr4VnQaaGpD4aQWn7sPI9r/s400/untitled.bmp" border="0" height="223" width="340" /><br /><br /><div><br /><br /><div><br /><div><br /><div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Here is my commentary of podium training session #2 that will feature team USA. Chellsie has been confirmed that she won't be doing any events besides uneven bars. The girls were wearing dreadful pink leos that Nastia Liukin is shown wearing above. Italy, Great Britain, and Japan are the other nations performing in this podium training session alongside the U.S. girls.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">FX<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Warm-ups: Everyone looked pretty good in warm-up, good double-double from Shawn and nice double arabian from Sam P. Nastia is looking solid on all of her tumbling passes shown thus far.<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Sam P: Replaced her opening double-double with a piked full in which is a .2 downgrade, she also opened up with a piked full-in at last year's Worlds and at the Italy Grand Prix meet, very odd that she never does it in international competition. Nice 2.5+front layout full and triple turn. Very uncharacteristic fall on her double arabian, she looks like she might be injured. Layout 1.5 twist and double pike were kept as separate passes, like she did at trials. The routine she did here would only come out to a 6.2 with everything credited. Martha was not happy with this routine.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Bridget: Very nice 1.5 twist through to triple full. Two steps out of her piked full in, didn't go OOB however. Excellent front double twist, legs ever so slightly crossed in the air. Good triple turn. Tiny hop on her finishing double pike but this was an excellent routine, could legitimately compete here during team finals.</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Alicia: Interesting that they are putting her before Nastia. Downgraded leg-up double turn to a regular double turn, she usually got that skill around so this is an odd decision. Nice full-in, step backward on landing. Split jump 1.5 that shock horror, actually makes it around! Double arabian, step OOB. 2.5 twist+front layout, looked like she landed OOB. OOB again on her double pike, a set like that in prelims would definitely keep her out of event finals, especially considering that she has no upgrades (where did that triple twist go?) to show for.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Nastia: Small step back on her layout front full+layout front double full combo pass. Good double front, cowboyed as usual. Foot touched the line on 1.5 twist+Rudi but that wouldn't be considered OOB. Leg-up double turn looked a little short. Step forward on her 2.5 twist pass, overall a very nice routine and much improved now that her ankle isn't giving her issues.</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Shawn: Nice double-double but looked like she might've been OOB. Whip+triple full, looked all the way around! Replaced double turn with leg-up full turn. Front full+Rudi, short of rotation and low landing. Vanessa Ferrari just did a nice double pike off BB. Full-in, definitely OOB. Good routine, not her best though. However, rotating the whip+triple full is a lot more important than her Rudi. With the whip+triple downgrade she would lose .2 CV (no CV awarded to A+D combos, only A+E) and .1 for the skill being downgraded to a 2.5 twist. However, a Rudi being downgraded would lose nothing for CV (CV is still awarded, even for repeated skills) and would count the double turn, a B, instead of the Rudi. That would only be a .1 difference in A-score, whereas underotating her triple full would be a .3 difference.</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Shawn did another attempt of her front full+rudi afterward and it was much improved. However, she tried it a third time and fell, she looks frustrated but Chow is still calm and smiling. Did it one more time and landed it without error.</span> <span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br /><br />VT<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Liukin: Really nice Yurchenko 1.5, tiny hop on landing.</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Sloan: DTY, bent legs but a very nice landing, Martha liked it. She is looking very sharp and confident thus far.</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Peszek: Superior form than Sloan, however looked a tad underotated but I think they would still credit her with a DTY. Big step backward but stayed inside the lines, overall a decent vault and Martha liked it.</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Johnson: Took a big step on her Amanar but the 2.5 twists looked complete. I think she is very aware of her possible downgrades on some skills, especially considering that after she underotated her Rudi she practiced that skill three more times before the U.S. moved to vault.<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Sacramone: Very solid Rudi, little piked down and close to the table but a very clean vault.</span> <br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">2nd Round of Vaults</span> <br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Liukin: Nice yurchenko 1.5, small step but her vaulting is looking very secure and confident.</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Peszek: DTY, better height and rotation, small step on the landing. Definitely an improved vault from her 1st attempt.</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Sloan: Took a step forward but a good vault, her landings are cleaner than Sam P. here so I would pick her to lead-off in team finals on this event.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Johnson: Took two steps on the landing of her Amanar, Martha exclaimed "that's the one" but this vault looked underotated.</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Sacramone: Even better handspring Rudi, just a slight hop back. Superb DTY for the second vault, but where is the Amanar? With Hong Su Jong out it's possible that Sacramone has bowed out of doing that vault for event finals to prevent further injury and to stick with the two vaults she has done for years to medal.</span> <br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br />UB<br /><br /></span><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Peszek: NBC only showed her dismount, a full-twisting double layout with a small step.</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Sloan: Handstands were a little short on stalder-full and in-bar stalder, awkward step forward on full-twisting double layout dismount.</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Johnson: Gienger was very closely caught and Valeri Liukin had to touch her when re-grasping the bar. Missed bail to handstand and had to stop routine, I've never seen her make that error before. Good toe-on full, however, and some of her handstands were better.</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Memmel: Jam to handstand was very short and had a couple form breaks, otherwise a good routine but not her best. Double front looked fine, Valeri touched her on the landing but she stuck it.</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Liukin: Did routine up to pak salto, everything looked great except for a late handstand on her Ono 1.5 pirouette.</span> <span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br /><br />2nd Round of Bar Routines<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Peszek: Caught jaeger a little close to the bar, giant full was short of handstand and layout full-in dismount had a step on the landing. A good routine but is unlikely to be doing this event in team finals.</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Sloan: Two steps forward on the landing and slightly short on her in-bar stalder but everything else looked great, definitely an improvement from her first bar routine.</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Johnson: Sizable step on her laidout double-double but a very nice routine from her</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Memmel: Only showed 2nd half of routine, much improved jam to handstand and nearly stuck a double front. By the looks of her double front her ankle appears to be doing fine. I wonder if in the event where USA would have a bad beam rotation in prelims whether Martha would want her to tough it out and compete that event in team finals, she looks to be capable even though she has said she will only do bars for the competition.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Liukin: Very nice routine, had a little push from Valeri on her dismount and took a step back on it, but landed with her chest upright which is an improvement. Ono 1.5 pirouette was again late, but a very nice set indeed.</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Afterwards: Bridget Sloan later did the last section of her bar routine and nearly stuck her layout full-in dismount. Shawn Johnson had a small step afterwards on her laidout double-double dismount. Excellent jam to handstand to double front dismount with a stuck landing from Chellsie Memmel. Liukin's double front 1/2 dismount had the tiniest of hops on the landing. Martha is very happy with the bars rotation. Later on we saw a double tuck dismount off beam by Imogen Cairns, which was stuck.</span> <span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br /><br />BB<br /><br /></span><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Peszek: Very nice set, a small step forward on her double pike and a little wobble at the end of her acro series. Her issues on floor were very uncharacteristic but Sam was solid everywhere else.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Sloan: Fall on her back handspring-layout acro series, first big mistake she has made in this training session. Otherwise solid, but missed the connection on her switch leap+back tuck.<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Sacramone: One of the best beam sets I have seen from her; connected both her front pike+back tuck combo on the mount and her front pike+layout step out. Looks ready to be the beam lead-off girl in team finals.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Liukin: Excellent set apart from a very unusual wobble on her side somi, which likely would've been a .3 deduction had it been done in competition. Stuck dismount and front somi to scale looked like it was held long enough to recieve full credit.</span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Johnson: Full turn didn't make it all the way around, and low chest and a slight foot adjustment on the landing of her standing full twist. Everything else was spot on, complete with a stuck full-in dismount!</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br /><strong>Second Round of BB Routines</strong></span> </div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />Peszek:<strong> </strong>Fall backwards on double pike dismount, small wobble on sheep jump but everything else was solid.<br /></span></div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br />Sloan: Nice set! Stuck cold double pike and hit her back handspring+layout step-out series from earlier perfectly. Had wobbles on the front aerial+side aerial combo (front aerial in particular) and wavered ever so slightly on her front aerial to scale. Big improvement from her first set and very strong work overall during podium training.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br />Sacramone: NBC didn't show mount but rest of the routine was very solid minus a slight wobble after her leg-up full turn and a hop on her double pike dismount.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br />Liukin: Slight hop on dismount, legs still a little crossed in the air. Had a wobble on her side somi, that element never gives her issues. Front somi scale didn't look like it was held long enough, but still a great set from Nastia. By far the most consistent gymnast out on the floor for USA in the podium training.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br />Johnson: Very low chest on standing full, was off on her layout step out+back pike series yet saved it very well. I think they would've given her the credit for the leg-up full turn in this set, she held it pretty well. Little step on full-in, very nice routine but first set was superior.<br /><br /><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Thoughts on Each of the Girls<br /><br /><br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Shawn Johnson:</span><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"> Not her usual self in this podium training session, that's for sure. However, she didn't look that bad and for all of you out there going OMG the world is over because Shawn blew podium training, I beg to differ. Shawn has never had issues on bars with the skills she had yesterday, and she can do the front full+Rudi very well even though it was inconsistent. Her Amanar rotation and whip+triple full rotation has improved, and remember with the whip+triple she would lose .2 more than what she would lose with a downgraded Rudi. Beam was excellent as always and her second bars routine was very good as well, and I think right now she is just getting adjusted to the equipment and the atmosphere. If her Olympics turns into a Zmeskal Olympics I would be sorely disappointed.<br /><br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Nastia Liukin: </span><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Looked very confident on each piece of apparatus, just some minor issues here and there but strong nonetheless. Vault and floor, the two power events that Liukin regressed considerably on during her ankle injury are looking the strongest they have in a long time. Uneven bars was excellent as well and showed an improved dismount on top of that, and her balance beam was Pacific Rim TF worthy minus those uncharacteristic wobbles on her side somi.<br /><br /><br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Alicia Sacramone:</span><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"> She looks pretty tired if you ask me, but at least she has stepped it up on beam now that Memmel is not doing that apparatus. However, floor? We were supposed to be getting a triple twist upgrade, which she apparently did at the selection camp, and now she has stuck with her old routine. With the way she performed on that event today, I can honestly say there is no need for her in team finals on this event with Johnson, Liukin, and Sloan outperforming her. Of course, Sacramone is still capable of much better and barring something unusual should still do that event in team finals given her experience. However, I would say FX finals are out of reach unless if she can magically hit all of her landings to her capability come prelims. Though one mustn't forget that Sacramone had the highest execution mark on floor in the qualifying at last year's Worlds even with a big step on her last pass that went OOB, so it is the B-score where she really has the potential to capitalize on.<br /><br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Chellsie Memmel: </span><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">While Memmel is not doing that 7.2 UB set she said she had in the works, her bars looked event final worthy and her ankle looked perfectly fine on her double front dismount. However, Martha K. and Co. know how valuable Chellsie's bars there and while Memmel could probably tough it out and do beam, they can trust Sacramone for that apparatus and let Memmel just focus on bars and not risk further injury. It is such a shame she won't be doing the all-around because she really deserved to do it, she was peaking at the right time and was being extremely intelligent with the pacing of her comeback. However, she appears to be doing fine and will look to not only do bars to her full potential, but will also be lending off her immense experience to some of her younger teammates.<br /><br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Samantha Peszek: </span><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Peszek could really be a further asset to the team if she could hit her floor exercise to her potential, but now that she has downgraded on that event yet again I don't think we will see her in team finals there. There have been several instances where Sam has looked disastrous in podium training but delivers excellent competition routines, so hopefully her FX, and her BB dismount on her 2nd routine, were merely additional cases of that. Her vault looked pretty strong, however, and while she is unlikely to be doing bars or beam in team finals she is a decent back-up option on both of those events if another emergency is to arise. She will be doing AA in prelims, and while she did look solid on three events she really needs to step it up on floor to make a further contribution to the team. With Chellsie's injury, Samantha is confirmed to do AA in prelims.<br /><br /><br /></span><div style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204); text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Bridget Sloan:</span> Sloan's fall of beam in the last rotation was unfortunate because she looked more than on her game throughout the entire training. Her second bars routine was TF worthy in my opinion, as was her floor exercise. Vault is still a question mark because of her bent legs, however her landings were consistently solid so she may indeed be picked over Peszek to be the lead-off girl in team finals. Had a good second BB routine but Sloan has the lowest scoring potential of all the USA girls on that apparatus. Chellsie's injury meant that holes were needed to be filled on the power events, and I am glad to see that Bridget has stepped it up and looks like she will be making a very necessary contribution to the team.<br /></div><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br /><strong>Overall:</strong> Some inconsistencies here and there and that is of course expected for a podium training session. Chellsie's injury won't impact the team too badly, provided that Alicia maintains the solidity of her beam work and all of the girls score to their potential on floor. Liukin, Memmel, and Sloan looked solid and ready to go. Peszek had issues on floor which need to be fixed if she looks to compete in team finals there, and will obviously look to keep improving her DTY vault. Alicia has work to do on floor, especially when it comes to staying in bounds and controlling landings. With a lower start value on that event she has absolutely no room for error if she wants to get into FX finals and medal there. Johnson looks rough around the edges, but did show all of her skills and will hopefully bring her A-game when the competition begins on August 10th, 2008. Team USA will certainly need everyone to bring their A-game if they want to hold off China for team gold, and that concept will hold true for every player. </span> <span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><br /><br />That is all.</span><br /><br /><br /></div></div><br /><br /></div></div><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></div></div></div></div>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-47536649876045147202008-08-06T18:57:00.000-07:002008-08-06T21:17:20.547-07:00Women's Podium Training Session-China and Romania<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUECd0IVdzPON3uLyj1tC7tQF5uNgIEDPAWVGp5stWlSzbHjuberk1DS2IyoWPM_4itPqzOHMQOB-NfB-Yghw5Q6YJvneGQn2BJ1rgaU4zR6Xa6MALsQYrKcwHD2XjhgGRsAKQbVtzb_1p/s1600-h/2008_Beijing_Olympic_Torch_Relay-56.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 300px; height: 198px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUECd0IVdzPON3uLyj1tC7tQF5uNgIEDPAWVGp5stWlSzbHjuberk1DS2IyoWPM_4itPqzOHMQOB-NfB-Yghw5Q6YJvneGQn2BJ1rgaU4zR6Xa6MALsQYrKcwHD2XjhgGRsAKQbVtzb_1p/s400/2008_Beijing_Olympic_Torch_Relay-56.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5231623319520380194" border="0" /></a><br />Whether it is to add a perspective and knowledge on things or to provide commentary if NBCOlympics doesn't work for you, I will be doing my own "quick hits" tonight on my blog for the podium training session#1, featuring medal contending teams China and Romania.<br /><br />9:59 EST Gymnasts are marching out.<br /><br />10:02 China is warming-up on beam, Romania on vault. The event order of the podium training session will be the same as the actual team prelims.<br /><br />10:06 Yang Yilin had a fall on her front aerial+side aerial combo, hit that combo perfectly while Chinese were warming up. Otherwise a good set.<br /><br />10:09 Deng Linlin, excellent beam set aside from a low dismount landing on her double pike.<br /><br />10:11 Li Shanshan had an exceptional beam set, though did have a low chest and one step on her double pike. No Y-scale turn.<br /><br />10:15 Cheng Fei went before Deng Linlin and had a very solid set as well, awkward landing on her 2.5 dismount, however. Jiang Yuyuan fell on her back tuck+sheep jump (fall looked savable) and was off alignment on her Ruflova. Odd how Yuyuan went last on this event, her weakest. Yilin just hit her front aerial+side aerial perfectly.<br /><br />10:19 Nistor was very distraught after doing her vault (which NBC didn't show). Bela Karolyi is in the stands, talking to the media. China is done with beam.<br /><br />10:22 First rotation is concluded.<br /><br />10:24 Romania is moving to bars, China to floor. Not surprisingly, He Kexin is not doing floor and didn't do beam.<br /><br />10:33 Deng Linlin was listed as "He Kexin." LOL Took a step on double arabian, underotated triple turn, and also underotated her 2.5 twist at the end of her combo pass.<br /><br />10:37 Yang Yilin, could've gone OOB on her first pass (view was obstructed but it looked like she went out), triple twist was possibly short of rotation and had low landings on her combination pass and finishing double pike. This definitely was not her best routine here.<br /><br />10:40 Jiang Yuyuan, very good tumbling and expression. Had a low double pike and an underotated triple turn but otherwise flawless.<br /><br />10:42 Cheng Fei, has switched her routine around and put piked full-in for her second pass, whip+triple for her 3rd, and 2.5 twist to dismount. If I am not mistaken I believe that puts her routine at a 6.6 A-score, the same as Shawn Johnson. Really excellent set, chest was low on her double-double (as it normally is) and whip+triple full was a tad off but Cheng looks like she is in fine shape for these Olympic Games.<br /><br />10:44 China put Li Shanshan last on floor, don't know why they're putting their weak links last in the lineup and whether they will do that come time preliminaries. Rotation 2 has concluded.<br /><br />10:49 DTY from Deng Linlin with one step, did another one later that was almost identical. As expected, Shanshan is sitting this event out.<br /><br />10:55 Showed parts of Nistor and Izbasa's beam routines and they looked good, minus a very dropped back (even more so than I remembered it being) on Nistor's "Nistor." Two good Amanars from Cheng Fei, remember she hasn't even tried the Amanar all year long. Yuyuan did another Amanar, but with a big step to the side and was possibly a smidget underotated.<br /><br />11:02 Cheng Fei just landed on her knees on her Cheng vault attempt, first major mistake from her during this entire podium training session.<br /><br />11:04 Cheng Fei did her Cheng again, much improved. Had one hop and piked down the last half twist of the vault, and a low chest on landing. Very solid vault though, definitely still the prime favorite for vault gold.<br /><br />11:05 Gymnasts marching to final piece of apparatus, which for China is uneven bars.<br /><br />11:09 Deng Linlin crashed her piked jaegar, and had several missed handstands. Great laidout full-twisting double back dismount.<br /><br />11:12 He Kexin did some skills include her jaegar1/2+jaegar combo, and her 1.5 pirouette into her tucked full-in dismount. Step on the landing but looked excellent as always.<br /><br />11:15 Full set from Deng Linlin, very low dismount. Hit the jaegar she missed earlier but broke form. Had several missed handstands. In the event that China would have to use Linlin to do UB in TF a door would come flinging open for the United States.<br /><br />11:17 Yuyuan crashed her jaegar, otherwise a good set. Falls on beam and bars for Yuyuan in this podium training session are a bit unusual for this generally consistent gymnast.<br /><br />11:20 Yang Yilin had a low landing on her dismount and failed to go over the bar one of her pirouettes, Yang too has looked a tad off her game the entire night.<br /><br />11:23 Excellent set from He Kexin, small hop on landing and had a loss of swing on her shoot transition to the high bar.<br /><br />11:24 Yuyuan made her jaegar afterwards without issue, but went over on a stalder1/2 on the low bar and had to let go of the bar and do it again. Yuyuan also had a step forward on her double layout dismount.<br /><br />11:25 Saw Izbasa and the last two tumbling lines of her routine (1.5 twist+rudi and triple twist). Looked a tad sluggish, and triple twist was underotated and had some crossed legs as well.<br /><br />11:30 He Kexin went back and did another bar routine. Did an even better routine complete with a stuck dismount. Almost overarched a low bar handstand, however, but this girl is so bloody consistent it will be a tall order for anyone to beat her in uneven bar finals.<br /><br />11:33 This now concludes the women's podium training session for subdivision one. Most of the footage was on China, and here are my comments on each member of the team.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Cheng Fei:</span> She is peaking at the right time, enough said. Excellent on her three apparatus; she is going to be tough to beat for floor and vault finals. Did indeed go for the 6.6 A-score on FX, and with Johnson playing with fire on some of her skills (whip+triple twist in particular) and Izbasa looking a bit shaky, Cheng could indeed be the one to beat on that apparatus. A fall on her first Cheng vault is a tad alarming, but she did her second one just fine so I don't think it is much of a cause for concern. Balance beam looked very solid as well and has wisely stuck with her 2.5 dismount.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Yang Yilin: <span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span></span></span></span>Did not see her DTY, but looked hot and cold throughout the training. Had a fall on beam, several landing issues on floor and had a couple problems on uneven bars as well, especially with not making it over the bar on that one pirouette that I mentioned previously. Is probably just working out the kinks with a lot of these elements, as she is generally a very solid competitor under pressure.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Jiang Yuyuan: <span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span></span>FX looked great, but was shaky elsewhere. Her Amanar vault may have been a tad short of rotation, and she did step sideways and over the line as well. Uneven bars she had two major errors on, her jaegar being one and her stalder1/2 on the low bar (which she did in a separate routine) being the other. Balance beam looked very confident and then all of a sudden was off the beam on her back tuck+sheep jump. Some very uncharacteristic errors in this session from Yuyuan, but like Fei and Yilin, Jiang Yuyuan generally does best under pressure.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">He Kexin: <span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span>Will not be doing BB and FX, which we knew all along. Did not see her DTY but UB looked fabulous as always.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Li Shanshan:<span style="font-weight: bold;"> <span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span></span>Interesting how China put their weak link last on every apparatus, and for Shanshan that was bars and floor. Looked OK, not great, on those apparatus. Her balance beam, on the other hand, was stunning. Truly a master of that event, however her sheep jump form could've been better and the same can be said for her dismount landing. With that said, the rest of that routine was spot on and I think if she were to repeat that podium training session BB set she would have BB gold pretty much locked up.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Deng Linlin: <span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span>China's decision to take Linlin primarily for beam looks to be paying off, Deng had a great routine with few wobbles in sight. Also hit two nice DTY's, and while her floor was decent I believe China will shy away from wanting to use her there in team finals, and the same can definitely be said for bars. Had some issues with uneven bars as I mentioned previously, but otherwise performed well.<br /><br /><br />Overall: Obviously China has no plans to peak in this prelims session, however what is interesting with China is that they are not dealing with any of the jet lag and time-change issues that the other teams have so what we saw tonight should be a good indication of what we're going to see in prelims. The team looked very solid, however Yilin and Yuyuan in particular had some issues here and there. I didn't notice any upgrades with the exception of Cheng Fei's floor routine. China is pretty set with all of their team final lineups in terms of being competitive with the USA and all of the other teams. While I would say this team will be tough to beat, I wouldn't say they are unbeatable.<br /></div></div></div><br /><br /></div>That is all.<br /><br /></div>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-86011306832205858482008-08-01T19:38:00.000-07:002008-12-09T15:03:28.465-08:00Thoughts on Paul Hamm's Injury and He Kexin's Underage Status<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjSHypp6MtIhGG8P7cHdleR5RKnjfA9anjAK20YGvdxbBuhoLYTeoiOaUxQvqG4MzSHXg_vwB6fujEhIk1w67HClPr6FzVhnFRx65AP0xy9FxRqGEBmhKuTad4QgQFoGPBihkfOaQn_ql0/s1600-h/340x.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjSHypp6MtIhGG8P7cHdleR5RKnjfA9anjAK20YGvdxbBuhoLYTeoiOaUxQvqG4MzSHXg_vwB6fujEhIk1w67HClPr6FzVhnFRx65AP0xy9FxRqGEBmhKuTad4QgQFoGPBihkfOaQn_ql0/s400/340x.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5229754814126657090" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoYWtcen8gECEkm001p0klRRzO8IgOwz9QMe4CJFfbd8eVsXEfUMUxBcctvTstWaQRNlHhvPudW_tdIPLcrjWem5XORdTFJ7v-bTSyKbhZwoFnQvI8szrERqdlXETNEG6YuI4rigkTuo54/s1600-h/41283339.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoYWtcen8gECEkm001p0klRRzO8IgOwz9QMe4CJFfbd8eVsXEfUMUxBcctvTstWaQRNlHhvPudW_tdIPLcrjWem5XORdTFJ7v-bTSyKbhZwoFnQvI8szrERqdlXETNEG6YuI4rigkTuo54/s400/41283339.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5229754710194515298" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 0);"><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />As anyone who is even a remotely avid gymnastics fan should know by now, Paul Hamm pulled himself out of the 2008 U.S. Olympic MAG team. I was shocked to hear this news, but there is no time for the U.S. men's team to look back now. Raj Bhavsar, who was controversially sidelined in Athens as an alternate, was chosen to replace Hamm and will finally be in pursuit of his Olympic dream that was taken away from him four years back. (It is worth noting that the USA men gave up .887 to Japan on rings at the 2004 Olympic MAG team finals, and eventually lost the gold by .888. Bhavsar averaged a 9.7875 at the 2004 Olympic Trials, the highest rings total for any of the U.S. men, and the U.S. winded up counting a 9.125 in Athens TF from Jason Gatson) For those that are wondering whether USA can medal now that Paul Hamm is out, the answer is yes. Check this out:</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">With Raj on the team (Thanks to Denn333 and TCO from WWGYM for contributing the Nats/Oly Trials average scores )</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 153);">USA MAG Weighted Average of All Four Scores from Nationals/Olympic Trials: 276.45</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 153);">Dropping the lowest of the four scores for each gymnast: 278.517</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(51, 102, 102);">Team Placements From 2007 Worlds<br /></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 102);">Gold: China(281.900)</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 102);">Silver: Japan (277.025)</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 102);">Bronze: Germany (273.525)</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 102);">4th: USA(272.275)</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 102);">5th: Korea (269.95)</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 102);">6th: Spain (269.40)</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 102);">7th: Russia (269.20)</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 102);">8th: Romania (267.75)</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">Team Placements from 2008 Europeans (Not entirely comparable because of 5-3-3 format instead of 6-3-3)</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">Note: Scores were not averaged here, I am just providing averages to show what there consistent scoring potential amounts to)</span><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);"><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">Gold: Russia (prelims: 273.175, finals: 272.45, </span><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">avg: 272.8125</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">, +3.6125 from Worlds)</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">Silver: Germany (prelims: 268.00, finals: 269.575, </span><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">avg: 268.7875</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">, -4.7375 from Worlds)</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">Bronze: Romania (prelims: 266.275, finals: 268.95 </span><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">avg: 267.6125</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">, -0.1375 from Worlds)</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(102, 51, 102);">So, as you can see from these team totals that USA easily has the potential to medal, even without Paul Hamm. USA (or any other team) would need a Miracle that would leave even Miracle on the Ice in the dust to overtake China. However, a bronze medal, or even a silver, is still a definite possibility for the USA men in Beijing. Japan should be a top contender for a medal, but it is worth noting that while there have likely made upgrades since last year the team is missing Hisashi Mizutori, a two-time World AA medalist. Mizutori suffered a shoulder injury and delivered a disastrous performance at the 2008 Japanese Olympic Trials which kept him off the team entirely. Though a healthy Mizutori is perhaps not as valuable to Japan as a healthy Paul Hamm would to USA, Mizutori contributed five scores in team finals last year, four of them which were solidly over 15. USA ultimately needs to hit well in prelims to get a good draw for the team finals (teams ranked 5th and 6th after prelims end on pommel in team finals, whereas finishing 3rd or 4th would enable USA to finish on floor which would be more ideal). Let us take a look at potential line-ups for team prelims and finals:<br /><br /></span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">FX</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">Prelims: Hamm, Hagerty, Horton, Spring, Bhavsar</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">Finals: Hamm, Hagerty, Horton (possibly Spring if he can upgrade his last pass, currently a double twist)</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">PH<br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 51, 0);"></span><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">Prelims: Hamm, Bhavsar, Tan, Horton, Hagerty</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">Finals: Hamm, Bhavsar, Tan</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">SR<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">Prelims: Tan, Horton, Bhavsar, Spring, Hagerty</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">Finals: Tan, Horton, Bhavsar</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">VT<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">Prelims: Bhavsar, Hamm, Horton, Spring, Hagerty</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">Finals: Any of the first four (Hagerty's vault is easier), Spring had the highest average among the members of the team from Nats/Olympic Trials and Hamm's score of 16.4 from Nationals Day one was the highest recorded from a member of this team at those two meets.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">PB<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">Prelims: Spring, Bhavsar, Horton, Hagerty, Tan</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">Finals: Spring, Bhavsar, Horton</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">HB<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">Prelims: Hagerty, Hamm, Spring, Horton, Bhavsar</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">Finals: Hagerty, Hamm, Spring</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">Note: The prelims line-up for HB will be a relatively large decision to make, with Raj Bhavsar's AA prospects on the line. The weighted averages (40% Nats, 60% Trials) from Nats/Olympic Trials for Tan and Bhavsar's HB routines were 14.13 and 14.03 respectively, a mere .1 difference between the two. However, Tan's personal best on this event was a 15.05 from day one of Trials, whereas Bhavsar's is only a 14.1. However, Tan is capable of bombing to the fullest degree (12.55 on day 1 nats, 13.85 on day 2 trials) so he won't be touching team finals on that event. USA shouldn't be in danger of missing team finals, though they would want to get into the top four in prelims so that they won't have to end on pommel horse (5th and 6th ranked teams after prelims have to end on pommel horse). And while Raj and Joey Hagerty will not be looking at an AA medal, Raj did finish ahead of Joey on both days of trials in the AA. I would have to say Bhavsar has earned his status as an AAer at the Olympics.<br /><br /></span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Why Was Raj Bhavsar Picked Over Sasha Artemev?<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Though it would at first seem logical to pick are strongest (when he hits) pommel horse worker given that pommels is USA's weakest event and all the more weaker without Paul Hamm, the powers that be for the U.S. men's selection committee decided to go with a different strategy. Looking at the overall picture, Bhavsar could contribute three events in team finals. Artemev on the other hand would only contribute on one event over Bhavsar, that of course being pommel horse. Rings is almost a given for Raj to perform in team finals, with parallel bars and vault being quite definite possibilities as well. Bhavsar outscored Artemev by sizable margins on all three events, and looking at the Nats/Trials weighted averages of Bhavsar vs. Artemev:</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">PH<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Artemev: 14.83</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Bhavsar: 14.14</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Advantage: Artemev 0.69</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">SR<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Artemev: (Using Spring's average instead because he is stronger here than Artemev): 14.805</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Bhavsar: 15.580</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Advantage: Bhavsar .775</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">VT<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Artemev: 15.855</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Bhavsar: 16.005</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Advantage: Bhavsar 0.15</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">PB<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Artemev: 15.220</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Bhavsar: 15.440</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Advantage: Bhavsar 0.22</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Overall<br /><br />Advantage: Bhavsar .455</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 102, 0);"></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Picking Artemev would've ultimately meant that the USA men would've thrown Bhavsar's .8 advantage on rings over Spring in favor of Artemev's pommels, which for a hit set could score roughly 1.3 over Bhavsar. That leaves .5 in Artemev's advantage, but could USA seriously trust him to hit a pommels set that he hit one time out of four during the Olympic selection process in the ultimate pressure cooker of all, Olympic team finals? That would be a HUGE gamble. Artemev is so much better at pommels than Bhavsar that he could fall and score roughly the same as a cleanly hit routine for Bhavsar on that event. However, if Artemev were to fall in team finals than we would lose that .8 on rings, plus around .3 for vault and parallel bars, which totals to a 1.1 loss. Though Bhavsar is unspectacular at best at pommels, his reliable contribution on the other three apparatus, rings especially, is a much safer and smarter way to go when looking at all of the different ways this gap can get filled. While Paul Hamm is a devastating loss for this team, choosing Raj Bhavsar to fill in was indeed an intelligent choice for the U.S. men's team, whose medal aspirations will continue to burn alive when they kick off the competition as the first qualifying subdivision on August 9th, 2008. </span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 0, 0);">He Kexin Age Debate-From Rumor to Media Firestorm<br /><br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0);">The accusations and rumors of the Chinese falsifying birthdates have produced an intense debate among the gymnastics world wide web ever since He Kexin starting winning world cup meets on uneven bars by skyscraper margins at the beginning of the year. However, it was just last week when the New York Times published an article on the subject matter, saying that Kexin, a favorite for uneven bars gold and Jiang Yuyuan, a top all-around gymnast, are indeed too young to rightfully compete in the 2008 Olympic Games. China, USA's top rival in the women's team final at the Olympics, apparently also had Yang Yun compete as an underage gymnast at the 2000 Olympics, where Yun won bronze with her team and individually on uneven bars. This has attracted the attention of the Karolyis, who commented in the NY Times article and stated that these girls are indeed underage. However, the Karolyis insist that there is nothing that can realistically be done to punish the Chinese or to prevent cases like this from happening in the future. </span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0);">Falsifying ages of gymnasts is almost as synonymous with women's gymnastics as gymnasts falling off the beam. Cases of this have dated back to the 1980s, when the Soviet Union and Romania, the top two teams of the day, were later found out to have falsified countless gymnasts' birthdates to compete in world and/or Olympic competition. However, one of the most well-known and widely publicized age falsifying cases happened to a North Korean gymnast by the name of Kim Gwang Suk. Competing on the grand stage for the first time at the 1989 Worlds, Kim was competing as a "15" year-old when many believed she was 12 at the very oldest, likely more around 10. Kim's innovative uneven bars set was complete with two skills that would eventually bare her name. (straddled release move with a front flip into the bar, currently an F rated skill and a giant 1.5 to mixed grip, currently rated at a D) Kim's innovative bar set attracted attention at the '89 Worlds, but it would be two years later when she was rewarded with a gold medal and a perfect 10 at the 1991 Worlds for her daring display of athleticism on the bars. However, Kim was met with far more skepticism than congratulation after her Worlds win. Suk came to the 1992 Olympics as one of the favorites for uneven bar gold, all the while claiming to be 17 with missing front teeth and a tiny 4'4'' frame suggesting her age was anything but. Bela Karolyi thought Kim was underage, commenting famously "Her milk teeth are falling out, which is a good indication she's not even 11." The judges weren't convinced either, shutting Kim out of the medals when many believed her bars performance in event finals was worthy of at least a bronze. </span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0);">Eventually, the North Korean team was banned from the 1993 Worlds, but Kim was allowed to keep her '91 World bars gold and all of the other medals she won. Now, in such a case where age falsification was proven, North Korea broke the rules and were caught. However, allowing Kim to keep all of her medals while technically an underage gymnast speaks volumes to the fact that while this age requirement is perhaps a good idea, it will ultimately never be followed by those with any chance to act otherwise (i.e. the Communist countries), because the consequences are meager at best. If the rule cannot be enforced, why is there such a rule in the first place? Several gymnasts admit afterwards (Goegan, Marinescu, and now Yang Yun being recent examples) that they were indeed underage to compete at the Olympics, in addition to other international meets such as the World Championships. Is there anything that can be done? You are doubtful to ever find either the FIG or IOC doing a damn thing in these kinds of scenarios, and things are unlikely to be any different this summer and beyond. The most we can realistically hope for is if the Chinese gymnasts' scores are lower than deserved.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0);">The Olympic Games is where the best athletes from around the globe come together to compete for the glory of victory, and the pride of one's own sport and country. He Kexin is said by many to be the best bar worker in the world. So if she's the best, bloody let her compete without any of this age restriction nonsense. I can understand the FIG's worry for young athletes to compete in major events before they are mentally ready, but several cases have proven that young gymnasts can compete at an exceptionally high level and perform well to boot. Nadia Comaneci won the European AA title at the age of 13 and when on to score her seven perfect 10's at 14 at the 1976 Montreal Olympics. And of course we have the current case of United States figure skaters Mirai Nagasu, Rachael Flatt, and Caroline Zhang not being eligible to compete for the senior world championships when they are clearly USA's top 3 skaters at the moment, not the 3 ladies (Kimmie Meissner, Ashley Wagner, Bebe Liang) who we had to send to senior Worlds. Does that make sense? I think not. Nor does allowing the best bar worker in the world, who has hit EVERY bar set this year (including one in front of the Chinese president), be scrutinized for being too young when China will realize she is an asset to the team regardless of her age. </span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0);">If China is willing to risk putting Kexin and Jiang Yuyaun (who was no slouch herself at last year's Worlds and has only gotten better at meets since then) on its Olympic team when there is a possibility of getting caught with "cheating," then these gymnasts have to be mentally and physically ready for the Games and have to be proven assets to the team. Those qualities are a requirement for any athlete wanting to compete in Beijing, and if the Chinese are gowing to all the trouble of falsifying birth dates to get these girls on the Olympic team, then that alone proves that their ability is most definitely worthy of competing at the Olympics. It should be up to those in charge to decide whether a gymnast is mentally and physically ready for the biggest competition of their life, not an age rule that is going to be broken anyway.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0);">Ultimately, we are all different and the same is true for the athletes. One gymnast can peak at a very early age (which could prove to be the case of Kexin) and some athletes, Alicia Sacramone being an example, will end up peaking at a later stage of their career. And of course we have the inspirational Oksana Chusovitina looking better than ever at 33 and about to compete at her 5th Olympic Games. But to deny athletes who are early bloomers of competing at the biggest meet of their life is unfair in my opinion. I in no way support China's cheating, or anyone's cheating for that matter. However, I will be the first to say that He Kexin and Jiang Yuyuan are exceptional gymnasts that deserve to compete in the Olympic Games. They have the skills, polish, and they have proven that they are good competitors as well. In the case of another young Chinese gymnast who didn't make the team, Sui Lu, it was clearly too much too soon for her. However, the case differs per athlete, and some will reach their peak at a young age and some when they are older. So my final words are these: FIG, why keep a rule you cannot impose anyway, and why require several top gymnasts' dreams to be put in hold (or require cheating) when the Olympics is about the best in the world coming together to battle for the gold? I believe whole-heartedly that He Kexin and Jiang Yuyuan are too young, and I believe China is indeed cheating by letting them compete. But could you imagine an uneven bar final without He Kexin, an all-around final without Jiang Yuyuan, or a team final without either athlete playing major contributions to China's quest for gold? I certainly couldn't.</span><br /><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">Tribute to Paul Hamm<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">Paul Hamm's relatively shocking announcement to take himself off the Olympic team could indeed be the end of this gymnast who did wonders for USA's success and kept viewers captivated over stunning gymnastics and stunning comebacks alike. The U.S. women's team was always the team that won the medals, got all of the attention, and attracted viewers to the sport of artistic gymnastics. The men's team never had such luck. After a team gold medal at the boycotted 1984 Olympic Games in Los Angeles, the U.S. men finished a dismal 11th in 1988. A 6th place would follow in 1992, and 5th have to do in 1996 and 2000. Through the years of John Roethlisberger and Blaine Wilson, the U.S. men could still never find their potential. Then all of a sudden came Paul Hamm, a cool head under pressure who had the entire package of difficulty and execution. Despite inconsistency at the 2000 Olympic Games and a missed shot at a world AA medal at the 2001 Worlds which resulted in a bloody nose as opposed to an intended podium finish, Paul staked his claim to the top at the 2003 World Championships, winning the AA over nemesis Yang Wei of China. Paul also helped the team win a silver medal, and was looking for even greater glory one year later in Athens.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">August 18th, 2004. The USA men had won silver, a glorious result in comparison with past finishes. But the AA final was scheduled to be Paul Hamm's tonight. The scoreboard after three rotations read Paul Hamm's name at the top, with top rival Yang Wei not too far behind. Staring down the vaulting runway, Paul had done this vault several times in competition before and it wasn't of anyone's concern that he would perform it any differently. As he sprinted forward, disaster loomed. Suddenly, Paul found himself not standing on the blue mat in between the white lines, but sitting down inches away from the judges. The fall meant no gold, a medal of any color seemed out of the question. However, mistakes clawed their way into other gymnasts' routines, and all of a sudden Yang Wei was off the high bar. A door had been opened. With two events remaining, Paul nailed his parallel bar set like there was no tomorrow. Needing a 9.825 to get AA gold, Paul delivered a performance for the ages, and ended up as with the gold meal that a short 30 minutes earlier most would've considered improbable for Hamm to get, having to climb 11 spots after his disaster on the vault. But it was Paul Hamm who conquered the most impossible of tasks and ultimately got the job done.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">On that night, I knew hardly anything about gymnastics, but I jumped up and down with excitement when I saw Paul Hamm's name plastered in the first place column on the scoreboard. But a short two days later, an incredible comeback would be marred by an incredible scandal. When all was said and done, Paul Hamm would remain the champion, but was now perceived by almost everyone in a different manner. Not an athlete who had one of the greatest Olympic comebacks in history, but an athlete who had slipped by a scoring error to win a gold that didn't belong to him. Three years later, Paul Hamm began a stunning comeback. Victories at the Winter Cup, American Cup, and the Pacific Rim suddenly made everyone realize that the Paul Hamm vs. Yang Wei rivalry would get one final chance on the sport's biggest stage after all. </span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">Paul was in the best form of his life by the time Nationals came by, and a broken hand suffered in the last seconds of his parallel bars routine would prove to be the undoing of finally proving to be the world's best gymnast in Beijing, this time without debate or scandal. Paul Hamm withdrew his position from the team when realizing his contribution could not be utilized because of an ill-timed injury, a decision painting a picture far away from what many have said about Paul's supposedly arrogant demeanor. While Paul Hamm's Olympic aspirations have been fulfilled twice and his bid for a third Games will have to come to a close, at least for now. This paves the way for Raj Bhavsar to finally achieve his dream to become an Olympian after all of the turmoil of being an alternate in 2004 when many considered him worthy of making the team. And for me, that is bittersweet. Paul Hamm put the USA men back on the map for medals, and Hamm himself has certainly inspired more than a few people when it comes to coming back when all appears to be over. With Hamm, one should always expect the unexpected, and if he comes back to go for London 2012 as good as ever I honestly wouldn't be surprised. Who knew Wisconsin cheese created champions. Kidding, of course. But Paul Hamm has always amazed me, whether it was coming back after a fall on the vault to win the Olympic AA crown or looking in the best shape of his career after a 2 1/2 year break from gymnastics. And I seriously doubt that is the last we will be seeing of him, even if he is nowhere to be found in a gym.</span><br /><br /><br />That is all.<br /><br /><br /></div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></div><br /><br /></div><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></div>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-29631156104810896892008-07-25T07:23:00.000-07:002008-12-09T15:03:28.777-08:00Olympic AA Final Outlook Part 2-UPDATED<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJUXFe_l1UMulKrZNDKIjQzOTMas3iqRBpr2orDRSiWkCyLdN4L1X5zU2uE4OoG-CVmd-oUn35x7KWOKLQLC8LfaospU8UGI0fcsmZOhWsBtg5Psa71EwZbC9Y5VfJcULJXytcgCk6zLSo/s1600-h/awards.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5226983487497938146" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: pointer; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJUXFe_l1UMulKrZNDKIjQzOTMas3iqRBpr2orDRSiWkCyLdN4L1X5zU2uE4OoG-CVmd-oUn35x7KWOKLQLC8LfaospU8UGI0fcsmZOhWsBtg5Psa71EwZbC9Y5VfJcULJXytcgCk6zLSo/s400/awards.jpg" border="0" /></a><span style="FONT-STYLE: italic">Above: The 2004 Olympic AA podium for women's gymnastics: Zhang Nan (China)-Bronze, Svetlana Khorkina (Russia)-Silver, Carly Patterson (USA)-Gold. With all three gymnasts not returning to these Olympic Games, who will be on the podium this time around?<br /><br /></span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">UPDATE: Check the bottom of the post for my explanation of my podium prediction</span><span style="FONT-STYLE: italic"><br /></span><span style="FONT-STYLE: italic"><br /></span><span style="COLOR: rgb(153,51,0)"><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,0,204)">Note: Upon a reader's suggestion, I am changing my blog title to Polished Gymnastics 101, as to not create any confusion of my blog being about Polish gymnasts (yeah then I would have nothing to write about LOL). My site URL will remain the same, however. </span><br /><br /><br />I opened up this blog with a post on the women's Olympic AA final to take place at the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in Beijing, China on August 15th, 2008. Three months after my original post on the outlook of the top all-around women for these Olympic Games, the landscape of this competition now has a very different look. Interestingly enough, it appears that a USA vs. China showdown will not be exclusive to just the women's team final. Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, Jiang Yuyuan, and Yang Yilin look to be the top four contenders for this most prestigious title that they have trained their entire lives for. However, every gymnast is looking to capture their 15 minutes of fame on this night of nights. The anticipation is growing, the clock is ticking, and the drama is building. With just two weeks to go until the Olympics and everyone's final preparations for the biggest event of all falling into place, it is now time to crown the best gymnast in the world.<br /><br /><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">Note: The gymnasts' A-scores I have listed are of routines that have been credited successfully in competition. I do remark on any theoretical upgrades that either the gymnasts have said to be doing or have been rumored to be planning for the Games beside their current A-score total.<br /><br /></span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(0,102,0)"><br />Shawn Johnson (USA)</span></span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"> </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,102,0)"><br /><br /><br />Total A-score: (6.5 6.4 6.9 6.6) </span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(0,102,0)">26.4 </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,102,0)">(</span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(0,102,0)">Note: </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,102,0)">Could be a 7.0 BB set if her full-turn is</span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(0,102,0)"> </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,102,0)">credited, according to the reports it was credited at the selection camp</span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(0,102,0)">)</span> <span style="COLOR: rgb(0,102,0)"><br /><br />Pros: Shawn won both the U.S. Nationals and Olympic Trials with room to spare over what is predicted to be one of her top rivals in Beijing, Nastia Liukin. Upgrades to an Amanar on vault, a 6.4 A-score on uneven bars, and a 6.6 A-score on floor (believed to be the highest in the world at the moment) have not degraded her status as the favorite for Olympic AA gold in the least. Her consistency is admirable in the fact that she has only fallen once in a major competition this year, which was of course her Amanar vault at the Scam Cup.</span> <span style="COLOR: rgb(0,102,0)"><br /><br />Cons: International judges have been stingy all year long in international meets with execution deductions and downgrades on underotated skills, the latter of which has the potential to kill any hope for Shawn to win the AA. Questionable rotation on her Amanar vault and her whip+triple twist on floor, among other skills, could cost Shawn above a full point in start value, not to mention deductions for incomplete revolutions of the twists. USAG judges wouldn't have downgraded any of these major elements if their life depended on it, but the Olympic international judges are not likely to be even remotely lenient when it comes to these types of errors.</span> <span style="COLOR: rgb(0,102,0)"><br /><br />Outlook: I think Shawn's AA medal chances do not rely on any of the obvious things like mental toughness or being healthy, she has been all of that and more all year long and one shouldn't expect her to be any different in Beijing. However, Shawn's AA medal chances come down to far more technical details, that if not addressed now could have serious consequences on her medal chances at the games, and not just in the AA. However, it is definitely worth noting that despite USAG's inability to be harsh when necessary with these types of issues, Shawn and her coaches make for a very intelligent team and should be able to fix some of these potential problems in time for the arrival of the Games.<br /><br /><br /></span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(255,0,0)">Jiang Yuyuan (China)<br /><br /><br /></span></span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(255,0,0)"></span><div style="COLOR: rgb(255,0,0); TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span></span><br />Total A-score: (6.5 7.3 6.5 6.3) <span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">26.6</span><br /></div><span style="COLOR: rgb(255,0,0)"><br />Pros: Jiang has an excellent Amanar on vault, and very formidable start values on bars and floor. Winning the AA title at the Chinese Nationals back in May should bode well for Jiang's confidence and political favor heading into the games. It also doesn't hurt that Jiang competed in the Beijing arena at the Olympic Test Event in November 2007, and won the AA gold there as well. Jiang gained valuable experience while competing at last year's worlds, yet won't have to deal with the same kind of pressure that is being thrown at Johnson and Liukin, who have been analyzed as Olympic AA gold possibilities by the unrelenting USA media for quite a bit longer than Jiang has back in China. Among all of the AA medal contenders, Jiang's A-score is the highest when it comes to successfully credited routines.</span> <span style="COLOR: rgb(255,0,0)"><br /><br />Cons: Jiang is especially weak on balance beam, boasting a comparatively weaker 6.5 A-score on that event and is generally wobbly and cautious on that piece of apparatus. Execution deductions await Jiang on UB (missed handstands, occasional dead hangs, bent arms, typical Chinese UB errors) and also on FX (sometimes uncontrolled landings and occasional OOBs). Not competing AA at last year's worlds could hurt Jiang in terms of being able to withstand the pressure of such a tough competition, and also her reputation standpoint from judges who tend to favor gymnasts who have been out on the scene longer.</span> <span style="COLOR: rgb(255,0,0)"><br /><br />Outlook: Jiang is a great three-event athlete, but as long as she gets past beam she should do very well in the AA. Being at home in China should lessen any political backstabbing from biased judges, though the way the scoring has been going this year Jiang's UB execution could take a significant blow with the deductions she tends to incur that I previously mentioned. A weakness on beam aside, Jiang is more than up to par with the rest of the gymnasts when it comes to consistency, difficulty, and execution and it would be most surprising to not see her as a top AA medal threat come August 15th, 2008.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(204,51,204)">Nastia Liukin (USA)<br /><br /><br /></span></span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(204,51,204)"></span><div style="COLOR: rgb(204,51,204); TEXT-ALIGN: left"><br />Total A-score: (5.5 7.7 6.7 6.2) <span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">26.1</span><span style="font-size:100%;"> (</span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Note: </span><span style="font-size:100%;">Has only been credited with a 6.7 on BB</span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"> </span><span style="font-size:100%;">once, otherwise she gets a 6.6 because her front aerial to scale isn't held long enough)</span><br /></div><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(204,51,204)"><br /></span><span style="COLOR: rgb(204,51,204)"><br />Pros: Nastia has improved her FX and VT scores to go along with her world-class work on UB and BB. Victories at the American Cup and the Pacific Rim earlier this year have no doubt helped Liukin's statement to be a top Olympic AA contender, and second-place finishes at this year's Nats (which without an FX fall on night one might have won the competition) and Olympic Trials (while battling a case of the flu) have also proven that Liukin has the goods to go for gold in Beijing. Liukin is also known for her excellent execution marks for hit routines on events like vault and beam.</span> <span style="COLOR: rgb(204,51,204)"><br /><br />Cons: Liukin has several built-in deductions on UB (cowboyed/inconsistent double front 1/2 dismount, low tkatchev, off handstand on Ono 1.5 pirouette) and FX (crossed legs on twisting passes/cowboyed double front) that will most definitely be taken by the presumably strict international judging panel in August. Liukin has yet to put together a really flawless meet this year, with mistakes big and small always creeping in somewhere. Her double front 1/2 dismount off bars is of particular concern because of its generally low landings and poor form.</span><span style="COLOR: rgb(204,51,204)"><br /><br />Outlook: Liukin's rumored upgrades like a DTY and a triple full on beam did not materialize, and in both cases it was likely a smart decision to favor execution and consistency over more difficulty. Liukin has looked excellent on beam all year and appears to be getting it together on vault and floor where she has had issues in the past. Ironically it is her strongest event, uneven bars, which could look to be her downfall. A weaker A-score on vault means that Liukin needs to take full advantage of strength on bars, and that sometimes doesn't materialize as the Olympic Trials, among other meets, showed us. While Liukin has yet to put everything together in an AA competition this year, she could just peak at the right time in Beijing and surprise all, or in a worse-case scenario even miss AA finals if Memmel and Johnson put strong performances and Liukin commits errors that will keep her out of the running entirely.</span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,0,204)"><br />Yang Yilin (China)</span> <span style="COLOR: rgb(102,0,204)"><br /><br /><br />Total A-score: (5.8 7.7 6.7 6.2) </span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,0,204)">26.4 </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,0,204)">(</span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,0,204)">Note: </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,0,204)">Could have as high as a 6.9 BB set if she puts</span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,0,204)"> in all of her connections, but 6.7 is the highest she has received thus far)</span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,0,204)"><br /><br /></span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,0,204)">Pros: Those that have not followed gymnastics in recent months should be in for a huge shocker at these Olympics, as the 6th place finisher from last year's worlds has a legitimate shot at the Olympic AA gold medal. Upgrades on every event that are for the most part consistent, including a DTY vault and a 7.7 A-score UB routine, put Yilin firmly in the AA mix. Also helping her case are the facts that Yang does not have any weak event and is generally a consistent and cool competitor under pressure.</span> <span style="COLOR: rgb(102,0,204)"><br /><br />Cons: Yang lost the Chinese National AA title to Yuyuan with a fall after her pak salto transition on the uenven bars. Yang doesn't quite the international name that Johnson and Liukin have and was scored a bit tightly at last year's worlds, which likely had a bit to do with her not having the international reputation that some of the other top contenders have. Also, competing at home will bring upon great pressure to this young lady who is arguably China's best hope for an AA gold medal.</span> <span style="COLOR: rgb(102,0,204)"><br /><br />Outlook: Though not perhaps as well-known as an AA threat as Johnson, Liukin, or Yuyuan, Yang Yilin could steal the show if she maintains her trademark consistency on this all important of nights. A strong DTY, outstanding bars, and good beam and floor make her arguably the best definition of an AA athlete competing in Beijing, but it remains to be seen whether she can avoid major error and hold off her top rivals in the process.</span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><br />Other Potential Medalists<br /><br /><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,102,0)">Steliana Nistor (Romania)</span> </span><br /></span><div style="COLOR: rgb(102,102,0); TEXT-ALIGN: left"><br /><br />Total A-score: (5.8 7.3 6.9 6.1) <span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">26.1<br /><br /></span></div><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,102,0)">Pros: Nistor's consistency and lacking of a weak event make her a solid threat in the AA competition. With Vanessa Ferrari's never-ending battle with injuries, Nistor's chances could go up significantly if the European judges lobby to give her generous execution marks like they did at last year's worlds. Nistor's weakness, her form, has improved a tad bit over the last year. Also not to be forgotten is her experience of two world championship AA finals, one of which she medaled in.</span> </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,102,0)"><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;">Cons: Nistor was reportedly spotted with a back brace at the recent ITA vs. ROM vs. BRA meet, where she only competed bars. Nistor receives basic execution errors in the form and artistry department right off the bat and thus doesn't have the scoring potential of the presumed top four contenders mentioned above. Dealing with the pressure of being Romania's best hope for getting back an Olympic AA medal that they lost in 2004 could prove to be immense.</span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"> </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,102,0)"><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;">Outlook: Assuming that she is healthy and Stelina only competing bars at the recent ITA vs. ROM vs. BRA meet was merely precautionary, Nistor is Europe's best hope for an AA medal. Don't be surprised if Nistor gets generous marks from European judges who lobby to score her favorably a la 2007 World Championships, though it is no question that Nistor does not have the scoring potential that the top four gymnasts have. Nistor could easily sneak onto the AA medal podium if other gymnasts' mistakes present Steliana opportunities to do so, but if everyone is to hit (particularly the four mentioned above) Nistor's chances of medaling become much slimmer.</span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"> </span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(0,0,153)"><span style="font-size:100%;">Jade Barbosa (Brazil)</span><br /><br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(0,0,153)"></span></span><div style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,153); TEXT-ALIGN: left"><br />Total A-score: (6.5 6.6 6.7 6.3) <span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">26.1<br /><br /></span></div><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,153)">Pros: Jade has some notable upgrades that she has debuted this year, notably a 1.5 twist+ immediate front double full on floor exercise. An improved A-score on bars (6.6) will further add to Jade's strong scoring potential on the other three events to make her a possible top challenger for the AA podium. It is also worth noting that Jade was in peak form at last year's Worlds more so than any event throughout the year. If Barbosa is to come to Beijing armed with the best gymnastics she has produced all year, she could prove to be an especially strong threat in this competition.</span> </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,153)"><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;">Cons: Jade has been remarkably inconsistent throughout the entirety of this year. Losing the Brazillian AA title to lesser-known gymnast Ana Claudia Silva will no doubt put yet another damper on Barbosa's often wavering confidence level. One of her main weapons, an Amanar vault, has yet to be landed this year and Barbosa has only attempted that vault once, and very unsuccessfully, since last year's Worlds. Balance beam has also given Jade issues all year long, with her acro series giving her particular trouble. Even Oleg Ostepanko, one of Brazil's top coaches, has stated that he would be surprised to see Barbosa challenge for medals at this summer's Olympics.</span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"> </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,153)"><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;">Outlook: With Barbosa the potential really is there, but her consistency is always a big question mark and her confidence has likely taken several shots this year, especially with losing the Brazillian AA title recently. Getting her Amanar vault consistent in time for the Olympics will be especially crucial for Barbosa, who will rely heavily on that one element to get herself up to the level of the top gymnasts contending for medals. Though Jade's inconsistency this year has made her look anything but a realistic AA medal prospect, we must remember that not many were expecting her to challenge for the podium last year and ended up surprising all by doing so.</span><br /><br /></span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,153,153)"><br /><span style="font-size:100%;">Daria Joura (Australia)</span><br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,153,153)"></span></span><div style="COLOR: rgb(51,153,153); TEXT-ALIGN: left"><br /><br />Total A-score: (5.8 6.3 6.3 6.3) <span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">24.7</span><br /></div><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,153,153)"><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="COLOR: rgb(51,153,153)">Pros: Joura has exhibited much-improved confidence and consistency this year and Peggy Liddick's decision to send the stylish Dasha to world cup meets and the Pacific Rim championships should enable Joura to do much better at this year's Olympics than last year's Worlds where she had lackluster performances throughout the competition. Joura does not have a glaringly weak event and has very nice execution and artistry to possibly vie for a medal.</span> </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(51,153,153)"><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;">Cons: Not having an Amanar vault will put a significant damper on Joura's AA medal prospects and will give away .7 to the medal contenders that do. The only event where Joura is capable to potentially score one of the highest marks of the competition is on floor exercise, with lower start values on the other three ultimately meaning that Joura will likely need a significant error from a top contender or two to realistically wind up on the medals stand.</span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"> </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(51,153,153)"><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;">Outlook: Strong performances at the Pacific Rim and especially the Australian Nationals have signaled to the rest of the field that, while maybe not everyone's first choice for a medal, Dasha cannot be excluded from the list of very realistic AA medal threats come Beijing. Dasha's good execution and unique artistry have won over judges and fans alike, however it is without a doubt that Joura will be need to be at the absolute top of her game if she wishes to become the first Australian gymnast in history to win an Olympic medal. Joura appears to be really going after the B-scores to her bid of becoming an AA medalist, as her total A-score is far behind that of the other top contenders.</span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"> </span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="color:#663300;"><span style="font-size:100%;">Vanessa Ferrari (Italy)</span><br /></span><br /></span><span style="COLOR: rgb(153,102,51)"><br /><span style="font-size:100%;">Total A-score: (5.8 6.8 6.7 6.3) <span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">25.6 </span>(<span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Note: </span>Has not been credited with those BB and FX<span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"> </span>A-scores (6.7/6.3) so far this year) </span><br /></span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(153,102,51)"><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="COLOR: rgb(153,102,51)">Pros: Ferrari is known for her high start values, good political favor, and incomparable mental toughness. Ferrari won the 2006 World AA title with a fall also won the 2007 European AA title. Ferrari followed that up those wins with a bronze in the AA at the 2007 Worlds while nursing a nagging foot injury. Another example of Ferrari's immense determination was displayed at the 2007 Worlds when Ferrari had not done a single full floor routine in training because of her injury and went on to hit three 15+ routines (under tough scoring as well) during the competition.</span> </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(153,102,51)"><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;">Cons: Ferrari will need all that mental toughness and more to win an AA medal after what has seemed like a never-ending battle with Tendonitis. (which if I am not mistaken was what developed to prior to last year's Worlds and has given her issues ever since) Even Ferrari has been pessimistic with her Olympic chances, confirming that she won't be at full speed and healthy when the Olympics arrive. Healthy or not, Ferrari's overall inconsistency, especially on bars and beam, has lost the Italian diva several individual titles in the past.<br /><br />Outlook: Vanessa's need to wait until the last minute to add back in some of her big tricks she has yet to compete this year (notably her double-double and triple full on floor) could definitely backfire on Ferrari, who hasn't competed these elements in a full routine for nearly a year. If last year's Worlds are any indication, Vanessa will press on to vie for a medal, but time is running out. However, Ferrari's fierce competitive nature should mean that one shouldn't ever count her out, but as of now her AA medal chances do not look at all good.</span></span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)"><br /><span style="font-size:100%;">Sandra Izbasa (Romania)<br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span></span></span></span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)"><br /><span style="font-size:100%;">Total A-score: (5.8 5.8 6.9 6.5) <span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">25.0 </span>(<span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Note: </span>Potentially 25.2 if 6.7 A FX materializes)<br /></span></span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span></span><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)">Pros: Izbasa's upgrades on vault (DTY), beam (6.9 A) and floor (6.5, rumored 6.7 A) will help out her AA medal case greatly. A generally consistent gymnast, Izbasa has the experience of two world championships, one of which she won the bronze medal in the AA. Izbasa also won't have to deal with much of the pressure being put on compatriot Steliana Nistor's shoulders and could wind up being the surprise of the competition if everything goes according to plan.</span> </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)"><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;">Cons: Great work on three events comes with a potentially fatal price to Izbasa's AA medal chances, a weakness on the uneven bars. Romania's weakness on bars has been in full force for the last 15 years (Nistor being an exception), and Izbasa's meager A-score of 5.8 (she was only credited with a 5.5 at the recent Mediterranean Gym Cup) and consistently splatted double front dismount make her AA medal chances go down dramatically because of just one event.</span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"> </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)"><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;">Outlook: Izbasa is not expected by many to be touching an AA medal podium come August 15th, and certainly won't be doing so if her UB (dismount especially) continues to give her issues. However, if she can get her bars work at least somewhat together prior to the arrival of the Games while maintaining her strength on the other three apparatus, an AA medal will not be out of the question for Izbasa. Her chances would ultimately rise if top challengers with far more pressure falter and Izbasa's experience and consistency paves her a path to the podium.</span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"> </span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="font-size:100%;">The Darkhorses<br /><br /><br /></span><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,51,51);font-size:100%;" >Anna Pavlova (Russia)<br /><br /><br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,51,51);font-size:100%;" ></span></span></span><div style="COLOR: rgb(0,51,51); TEXT-ALIGN: left"><br />Total A-score (6.5 5.7 6.8 5.9) <span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">24.9 </span>(<span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Note: </span>Amanar is questionable, 24.2 w/o it, has shown a triple full off beam in training, which looked fully rotated, and connecting back her front aerial+side somi+Kolesnikova series could bumb her total A-score up to as high as 25.3)<span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><br /><br /></span></div><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,51,51)">Pros: Anna was edged out of an AA medal in Athens which subsequently brought Pavlova to tears and prompted many observers to believe that she was unfairly placed behind Chinese gymnast Zhang Nan, who won the bronze medal. Anna is back for a 2nd Olympics and could be an outside threat for an AA with a possible Amanar vault, and a potential 7.2 A-score on beam (with triple twist and connecting her front aerial+ side aerial + Kolesnikova acro series). Pavlova will also carry with her great experience in Beijing and one shouldn't forget that the 2004 Athens Olympics has generally been said to be her best competition performance to date.</span> </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,51,51)"><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;">Cons: Pavlova has not competed her Amanar once since splatting at the European Championship vault event finals in April in both warm-up and competition. Low A-scores on floor (5.9) and bars (5.7, has ZERO connection bonus on this event) will make Pavlova have an extremely difficult time reaching the AA medals stand. Also combine that with the facts of her questionable Amanar vault and her fluctuating beam start value (has varied from 6.4 to 6.8, and could go as high as 7.2) make Pavlova a definite longshot for an AA medal of any color.</span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"> </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,51,51)"><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;">Outlook: Pavlova would need to be at the top of her game and more to vie for an AA medal, and since we have yet to see her reach her full potential on her two money events, vault and beam, it seems unlikely that we will see her in reach of an AA medal podium. However, a top 10 finish for Pavlova is very realistic, as are possible medal finishes with her team and individually on balance beam.</span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><br /><br /></span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold;font-size:100%;" >Ksenia Afanasyeva (Russia)<br /><br /><br /></span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold;font-size:100%;" ></span><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><br />Total A-score: (5.8 6.2 6.7 6.0) <span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">24.7<br /><br /></span></div><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-size:100%;">Pros: This relatively unknown Russian will likely end up being Russia's top hope for an AA medal. Armed with consistent work on all apparatus, Ksenia has won a total of three medals in world cup competition (2008 Tianjin and Moscow World Cups) and won the AA in both the preliminaries and finals of the recent Russia Cup. Ksenia's gymnastics generally has good execution and form.<br /><br />Cons: Afanasyeva's lack of experience will definitely not help her quest for finishing on the AA medal podium, nor will her comparatively lower A-scores on bars (6.2) and floor (6.0). Afanasyeva being a relative unknown won't do well with her AA medal status either, with judges known to favor gymnasts who have won major international meets in the AA, something Afanasyeva has yet to do.<br /><br />Outlook: Afanasyeva is without a doubt a relative long shot for finishing on the AA podium, however her consistency, good execution, and good strength across all apparatus should provide her a strong case for a top 10 finish if in peak form for the games. Though surprises have happened in the past in this event with top contenders faltering, Afanasyeva would need a stockpile of errors from the aforementioned contenders to finish the night with a medal around her neck.<br /></span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="font-size:100%;color:#663366;">Elizabeth Tweddle (GBR)</span><br /><br /></span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)"><br /><span style="font-size:100%;">Total A-score: (5.5 7.6 6.2 6.4) <span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">25.7 </span>(<span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Note: </span>Could go to 25.9 with 7.8 A-score UB<span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"> </span>routine she has apparently showed in training sessions at the British Nationals)</span><br /></span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)"><br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)"></span></span><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)">Pros: Elizabeth Tweddle, Great Britain's most decorated gymnast in history, qualified in 4th place to the 2007 Worlds AA final ahead of eventual co-bronze medalists Jade Barbosa and Vanessa Ferrari. Tweddle's work on the uneven bars and floor exercise is Olympic medal worthy on both pieces of apparatus. Tweddle is also the only contender besides Anna Pavlova who is competing in her second Olympics.</span><br /><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)">Cons: Any hopes of an AA medal at the last two world championships were dashed for Tweddle at the last two world championships with falls on bars (2006) and beam (2007). Tweddle's relatively low A-scores on vault (5.5) and beam (6.2) do not bode well for her AA medal chances. Beth has always seemed to be cursed with injuries or lackluster performances at big meets, and with that said is coming to Beijing off an injured ankle that kept her out of the British Nationals.</span><br /><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)">Outlook: Tweddle's AA finishes at the last two world championships, 8th in 2006 and 11th in 2007, don't suggest this experienced gymnast to be capable of contending for an AA medal. However, upgraded start values on bars (7.6, reports have even said she is training a bar routine with a 7.8 A-score) and on floor (6.4) are added bonuses to Tweddle's AA chances and could result in a medal if Tweddle has the night of her life and others falter. Still, the likelihood of Beth medaling in this event is low and will have better chances of medaling in the uneven bars and floor exercise finals.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(204,102,0)">The Big Question Mark<br /><br /><br />Chellsie Memmel (USA)<br /><br /></span><div style="COLOR: rgb(204,102,0); TEXT-ALIGN: left"><br />Total A-score: (5.8 7.0 6.9 6.2) <span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">25.9 </span>(<span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Note: </span>Could wind up as high as 26.4 (though I'd<span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"> </span>say 26.1/26.2 is more realistic), if her double arabian and split jump 1.5 are<span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"> </span>credited on floor, allowing for a 6.5 A-score there, and if she gets her UB A-score up to 7.2 like she has said she will)<br /><br /></div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="COLOR: rgb(204,102,0)">Pros: Chellsie's upgrades on vault (DTY), uneven bars (potential for a 7.2 A-score), and floor (double arabian-6.5 A), mean that Shawn Johnson and Nastia Liukin's once locked up positions in the AA final have suddenly become anything but. Chellsie's mental toughness is admired by fans and most importantly, the international judges, who have always scored Chellsie favorably in world championships despite shaky form and artistry. Chellsie's consistency throughout the Nationals/Olympic Trials/Karolyi Selection Camp meet was admirable, especially when you consider the fact that throughout the entire process she didn't miss one routine.</span><br /><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(204,102,0)">Cons: Chellsie's DTY is still a big question mark, and the 14.65 at the selection camp meet was lower than all of the scores handed out for 1.5 Yurchenkos. Her improvement on that event between now and Beijing is critical for Memmel's AA chances, with everything boiling down to if Martha K. wants to let Bridget Sloan and Samantha Peszek compete their comparatively better DTY's over Chellsie. A decision like that would ultimately mean Chellsie wouldn't do vault in prelims and her AA bid would be over before the competition were to even start. Chellsie's recent "whiplash" on floor at the selection camp meet will also mean that Olympic prelims will be the first competition where she will add back in her double arabian and compete it in her full routine.</span><br /><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(204,102,0)">Outlook: Shawn's questionable Amanar rotation and Nastia's inconsistent uneven bars could ultimately pave the way for Chellsie to not only make AA finals, but to even win a medal. However, Chellsie will need to improve her DTY vault fast if she is to truly solidify her position to compete all four events in prelims. As I see it, Memmel's AA bid could go either way. Her chances could realistically be washed away before she even competes her first routine of the competition, or Memmel's AA bid might ultimately culminate with a medal. Knowing Chellsie's immense toughness, I believe the latter scenario will be more likely to take place.</span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span></div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span></span></span></span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span></div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span></div><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span></span></div><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="font-size:100%;">Other Gymnasts Looking for a Top 10-Top 15 Finish</span><br /><br /><br /></span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span></span><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span></span></span>Rebecca Downie (GBR)<br />Hong Su Jong (PRK)<br />Alina Kozich (Ukaraine)<br />Deng Linlin (China-If for some reason Yuyuan or Yilin wouldn't qualify or wouldn't be able to compete)<br />Pauline Morel (France) </div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Lia Parolari (Italy)<br />Marine Petit (France)<br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-size:100%;">Ana Claudia Silva (Brazil)<br />Koko Tsurumi (Japan)</span><br /></span><br /><br /></div><span style="font-size:0;"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span></span><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="font-size:0;"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:0;"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span></span></div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Now, while I know that sticking with your first instinct is always intelligent reasoning I learned myself when switching Deng Linlin, my original prediction for the Chinese team, with Sui Lu, when it now appears as though Deng Linlin is on the Olympic team and Sui is not. However, I will make one change to my original podium prediction (<span style="COLOR: rgb(255,204,51)">Liukin</span>/<span style="COLOR: rgb(102,102,102)">Ferrari</span>/<span style="COLOR: rgb(153,51,0)">Johnson</span>)<br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Polish 101 Olympic AA Predicted Podium</span><br /><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(255,204,51)"><strong>Gold: Nastia Liukin (USA)</strong></span></div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,102,102)"><strong>Silver: Yang Yilin (China)</strong></span> </div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(153,51,0)"><strong>Bronze: Shawn Johnson (USA)</strong></span> </div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"> </div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="color:#6600cc;"><br />4th: Jiang Yuyuan (China)-Weakness on beam could keep her out of the top 3, as can a lower B-score on bars. </span></div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span> </div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="color:#6600cc;"><br />5th: Steliana Nistor (Romania)-The typical consistent Romanian who is solid on every event, but sluggish form and artistry and little mistakes here and there look to keep her out of the medals.</span></div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span> </div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="color:#6600cc;"><br />6th: Vanessa Ferrari (Italy)-Is an incredible fighter, Giulyx14 reports of upgrades on UB and FX if she puts her double-double back in. Just not in the shape to vie for a medal, but don't count her out yet.</span></div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span> </div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="color:#6600cc;"><br />7th: Jade Barbosa (Brazil)-Inconsistent as all get out but peaked at last year's Worlds and could do the very same in Beijing. Has all the goods to be a top contender, but her mental game is her downfall and something she has to get together for the biggest meet of her life.</span></div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span> </div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="color:#6600cc;"><br />8th: Daria Joura (Australia)- Consistent gymnast with good execution who looks to be peaking at the right time, but that lower A-score is going to kill her. </span></div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span> </div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="color:#6600cc;"><br />9th: Sandra Izbasa (Romania)- UB is a nightmare for her, but solid work on the other three should definitely keep Izbasa in the top 10.</span></div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span> </div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="color:#6600cc;"><br />10th: Hong Su Jong (PRK): We haven't seen her all year, and was quite lackluster at the Olympic Test Event in November 2007, her last major comp to date. However, North Korea is known for busting out all of the big tricks at the biggest competitions; they NEVER play it safe. So one should expect some upgrades (likely on UB where she is a possible contender an EF birth on) from Su Jong provided that she is healthy. Not seeing Su Jong compete all year does not bode well for her consistency at the Games, but she could be the ultimate darkhorse threat if she is in peak form. That, or she won't factor in at all. </span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Update: Reasoning for my podium prediction<br /><br /></div></span><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span></span></span></span></span></span>Many of you are likely dumbfounded by my prediction to keep Nastia Liukin as the Olympic AA gold winner. Shawn obviously seems to be the more likely pick of her consistency, difficulty, and execution. While Liukin is comparatively less consistent than Johnson, I think she is going to get it together one of these days and it could very well be the day of the Olympic AA final. The pressure on Johnson will be far more immense than that of Liukin, as Johnson's wins at Nationals, Olympic Trials, and the Karolyi camp have looked to downplay a Johnson vs. Liukin showdown that the media was making a big deal out of in the past.<br /><br />As for Shawn's Amanar, the code states that the feet are the do or die factor when it comes to crediting the full rotation of the twists, and Shawn's feet have been short of the complete 2.5 twists throughout Nationals and Olympic Trials. Granted, she isn't that short of getting the full rotation on vault, but the judges at nationals and trials were USAG judges and would not have devalued the vault if their life depended on it. There have even been reports that judges were pressured to give certain gymnasts (Shawn and Nastia in particular) high marks for certain routines and would be reprimanded if they failed to comply. I don't necessarily know if that is true, but USAG judges are known to be extremely generous with top gymnasts' scores in domestic meets. So the fact that one can just say Shawn's Amanar (and whip+triple full for that matter, though at Trials it was much improved from Nationals) will get credited at the Olympics because it got credited at Nationals and Olympic Trials is not a reliable statement. The reason I am still skeptical for Shawn to win is because she is playing fire with a lot more elements (A-score wise) than Nastia is, though with that said Nastia's UB routine is a routine many will be nervous when watching because of its many potential problems.<br /><br />As for Jiang Yuyuan's Amanar, TCO left a comment and made a good point that Jiang's crossed legs will be reason for deduction, and also the fact that to my knowledge Jiang has only competed this vault twice. (Johnson has done it successfully five times, fully-rotated or not). The video is too low quality, however, for me to determine whether she makes it all the way around (I am not the biggest expert on Amanar landings, as you probably have already figured out LOL). However, from what I can tell Yuyuan's looks clean, but I won't go to town saying it will be fully-rotated in the Olympics or anything like that.<br /><br />All of these potential downgrades and inconsistency could pave the way for Yang Yilin, who looks to be pretty consistent while not gambling with the credit on a lot of her skills. However, I will still predict Nastia Liukin to win. It may not seem all that logical, but I am going to trust my first instinct. And we all should know by now how unpredictable the Olympics can be.<br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span></div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span></div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span>Next Post: Olympic BB Final Outlook and Updated FX Outlook<br /></div><div style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><br />That is all.<br /></div><span style="font-size:0;"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span></span><span style="font-size:0;"><br /><br /><br /><br /></span>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com37tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-60561340488250179142008-07-21T08:37:00.000-07:002009-05-29T10:49:49.264-07:00It Is Now Official<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgmLt9RXho3DaXiNBsTgzPL8hQcAOOl_tmIXqUykuE0kyHZFl3Nq29WMfNk06GdNiRNUmwX6wz9G3YfS6WgItPFQxRqM9TujdgyohRvJBs6Kx1SpCp2uVQW4mTvCxv6kMLYY7JVbVzHiPz/s1600-h/team7.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5225628574455034034" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: pointer; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgmLt9RXho3DaXiNBsTgzPL8hQcAOOl_tmIXqUykuE0kyHZFl3Nq29WMfNk06GdNiRNUmwX6wz9G3YfS6WgItPFQxRqM9TujdgyohRvJBs6Kx1SpCp2uVQW4mTvCxv6kMLYY7JVbVzHiPz/s400/team7.jpg" border="0" /></a><span style="FONT-STYLE: italic">Above: The 2008 U.S. Olympic Women's Gymnastics Team, in addition to the three alternates chosen. Missing from the picture is Shayla Worley, whose very possible Olympic dream was ended at the last second with a broken leg.</span><br /><br /><br />The team selection for the USA women's gymnastics team, which will head off to Beijing to hold off China in its quest for Olympic gold, was announced the evening of July 19th, 2008. Though this team heads to the Olympics as the reigning world champions, just like in 2004, the drama and possibilities of who would go and who would stay was a far cry from in 2004, when the team selection was fare more open in terms of possibilities and resulted in a relatively shocking decision to invite veteran vault specialists Mohini Bhardwaj and Annia Hatch. This time around, the Olympic Trials in Philadelphia seemed to all but guarantee five spots on the team, with one being left to fight after. It looked like the last spot would be a fight between Jana Bieger, Ivana Hong, Mattie Larson, Bridget Sloan, and Shayla Worley. As all should know by now, Sloan got the last spot on the team and Jana Bieger, Ivana Hong, and little-known Corrie Lothrop were named as the alternates. My thoughts on the bubble girls competing for the last spots and their performances at the camp:<br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(153,0,0)">Jana Bieger: </span></span><span style="COLOR: rgb(153,0,0)">With a consistent showing on bars at trials, the 6th spot was ultimately Jana's to lose. Despite Jana's former greatness as an all-arounder (silver at 2006 Worlds), that would mean nothing to this team, all that was important was her uneven bars work. Unfortunately, two falls on her stalder Tkatchev (otherwise known as a Ricna) would be the undoing of a lifelong dream. And, to be perfectly honest, had Jana hit one of her bars sets at the camp and outscored Johnson, I think that would've been enough for her to make the team. It must be an absolute killer to think that ultimately being an inch or too far away from the bar during one routine meant the difference between a possible Olympic gold, and watching from the sidelines and wondering what could've been.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,102,0)">Ivana Hong: </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,102,0)">Well, at least her knee injury that she was rumored to have apparently was not serious, but Martha K. hinted that was Hong's lack of confidence, attack, and experience that kept her off the Olympic team. Though being an alternate to the team was pretty much known to be the case all along, Hong's relatively remote Olympic chances really boiled down to vault and bars. The numbers spoke for themselves, and Hong's vault being outscored by Samantha Peszek, Bridget Sloan, and Corrie Lothrop and having her bars being outscored by Shawn Johnson meant that there really is no immediate use for her on the team. Hong's help to the USA team on the world stage will have to be on hold until 2009.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,51,51)">Mattie Larson: </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,51)">Larson would've been the 3rd alternate at the very least if yet another injury (Memmel's "whiplash," and Worley's broken leg) hadn't happened to this most stylish of performers. If the injury hadn't occurred, it would've been interesting to see if Martha K. would've put Larson in for Hong as one of the two traveling alternates. After all, Larson had the 2nd highest floor score on day one, higher than Sacramone, Sloan, and Peszek, prior to her injury. The downfall to Larson's Olympic bid boiled down to even more than simply inexperience and her last-minute injury. Her best event, floor, was really the event USA needed her the least on. I think Larson's mature attitude and polished gymnastics can carry her a long way to the next quad and possibly the 2012 Olympics if she can hang in there that long. I only hope this isn't too big of a mental and physical setback for her heading into next year when USA could really use her to win medals in important competitions.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(0,102,0)">Bridget Sloan: </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,102,0)">If you read my "And spot #6 goes to...." post, you will definitely know how much I wanted Bridget to be on the team and I was thoroughly pleased to hear that she was indeed chosen as the last girl. However, her getting the last spot came down to very different reasons than I had imagined. With the five locks on the team, there was literally only one gap available, and that was on bars for both prelims and finals. However, with Shawn Johnson getting the 3rd highest bars score, Bieger's falls, and Sloan's missed handstands and closely caught release moves, the order of the day changed from getting a separate bars specialist to having the last girl add whatever tenths were left available to gain on vault and floor. With Sloan having arguably the best meet of her career at the most important meet of her career, she proved she could be counted on really any event as another good all-arounder for the U.S. team. I am still quite confused, and unhappy, that Sloan's UB scores fell like an avalanche between Nationals and the camp with hit routines. Apparently it was the aforementioned issues I mentioned of her UB routines that caused her scores to go down, but I would really like to see her being counted on as the 3rd bar girl and not Johnson, as Sloan certainly has the potential. Bridget's presence on the team now poses a threat to Chellsie Memmel competing AA in prelims, especially because of Sloan's far superior DTY at the camp.</span><br /><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,0,204)">Shayla Worley: </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,0,204)">I was devastated when I turned on my computer, went to NBCOlympics.com and the front page the headline stared at me "Shayla Worley out with broken leg." All of our possibilities for a 3rd bars girl have fallen one by one, and Worley was our last hope. Unfortunately, Worley's leg injury could've at least had a lower chance of not happening had she and her coach been smart and just trained and competed at the camp on bars ONLY. It seems as though Jeff Wood, and I guess Shayla as well, thought her making AA finals at the Olympics was a possibility, which as we all know is complete rubbish. However, it is also known that Martha K. has a strong liking for AAers, and after all with Sloan being picked over Bieger provides further evidence for that fact. Really, in the case with Bridget Sloan, she is just providing the USA with more options for back-up on floor, vault, and bars. However, an excellent 3rd bar worker who could consistently outscore Johnson by .2 or more would be all that was needed for the 6th spot, and frankly I think that if Hatch's 1-event Olympics in 2004 means anything Martha K. would've done the same for Worley.<br /><br />And that last spot could've easily been Shayla Worley, who was scored favorably at Worlds with the world-renowned "international look," and also had a 7.0 A-score UB routine in the works. And that last spot could've easily been Ashley Priess as well, who was scoring in the 15.7-15.8 range at a meet back in May but made an admirable decision to back-out of the race when she wasn't healthy enough to compete. One can only imagine how she now must be wondering that if her body had been up to the challenge she really could've made it. And, last but not least, that could've easily been Courtney Kupets, who everyone was waiting with eager anticipation if she would make an Olympic comeback until a nasty Achilles injury put a second Olympic Games out of her August travel plans. Kupets never said she would go to Beijing, but with experience, consistency, polished and difficult UB work, and confidence to top it off one has to wonder why she would pass up all of that for what could've been the Olympic team gold she missed in Athens. But here and now has arrived, and though all of those possibilities have vanished, using Johnson or Sloan for the 3rd bars girl should be good enough for the U.S. team given our strength and depth on the other three events.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Team Line-Ups<br /><br /></span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(0,0,153)">VT<br /><br /></span><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,153)">Prelims: Sacramone, Johnson, Liukin, Peszek/Sloan/Memmel</span><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,153)">Finals: Sacramone, Johnson, Peszek/Sloan</span><br /><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,153)">Outlook: This is going to be by far the most confusing event to determine the line-up, with AA spots and extra tenths to be gained to the team total on the line. As of now, it looks like Memmel will sit out of vault, but Chellsie is known for pulling tricks out of nowhere that you never really thought she could do that well. (take Nats Day 2 vault as an example) So I'd say it would actually be a wise move to still let Memmel do vault, especially considering the fact that Martha K. would look extremely bad for not letting three girls do AA in prelims if Nastia or Shawn is to get injured and therefore cannot compete.<br /><br />Now, with the Peszek/Sloan battle, we must not forget that Sloan's DTY scores were higher than Peszek's at the camp, and given how USAG judges tend to be rather lenient with Peszek that has to say something. Though this would seem to be almost unheard of for Martha K. (though if I'm not mistaken I think something like this happened at 2001 Worlds), Bridget could do VT in prelims and if she falters due to "inexperience" Sam P. can just go and do vault in team finals even if she didn't compete that event in prelims. It really is plausible, especially considering USA has no worries making to team finals (unless if Martha K. is really gunning for the top spot in prelims which would ensure USA of competing last on floor in team finals) and also that Sam P. can almost do a DTY in her sleep, even if it doesn't have the best form and height out there. And if Sloan's DTY is fabulous in prelims, well than you use her in team finals, simple as that. So, I would actually say I would sit out Peszek on vault in prelims, but knowing Martha K. it wouldn't be like her to be inclined to do that.<br /><br />It will be interesting to see if Johnson is going to go last on vault in prelims/team finals. With the step latter scoring format the judges generally use, the panel may just be a tad bit more lenient with crediting Shawn's often underotated Amanar vault. Though knowing what happened to Cheng Fei in 2006, the judges are really free to do whatever they want to.<br /><br /></span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(153,51,153)">UB<br /><br /></span><span style="COLOR: rgb(153,51,153)">Prelims: Liukin, Memmel, Sloan, Johnson, Peszek</span><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(153,51,153)">Finals: Liukin, Memmel, Johnson (possibly Sloan)</span><br /><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(153,51,153)">Outlook: Well, there is no question that this will be the prelims line-up with Sacramone ditching this nemesis event of hers altogether. It might be wise to put Johnson before Sloan in team prelims, so that judges can be more lenient with possible missed handstands from Sloan who has a .3 advantage in start value over Johnson on this event. However, unless if Sloan's UB routine is day 2 nats worthy in prelims, I'd say Johnson is doing UB in TF. Johnson if far more consistent on this event than Sloan and was scoring much higher than her at the camp meet, so as of now she is definitely the better pick.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(153,51,0)">BB<br /><br /></span><span style="COLOR: rgb(153,51,0)">Prelims: Johnson, Liukin, Memmel, Sacramone, Peszek</span><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(153,51,0)">Finals: Johnson, Liukin, Memmel/Sacramone</span><br /><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(153,51,0)">Outlook: The real question here is who will be doing the lead-off BB girl (unless if they want to switch things up and go according to A-scores, which would make Nastia the lead-off BB girl in TF). Memmel and Sacramone are generally consistent performers here, and while Memmel definitely outclassed Sacramone on this event at trials Sacramone was apparently better than ever on this event at the camp with two 16.2's (one of those scores was definitely said to be inflated, while Memmel's 15.9 on day one was said to be fair). The decision of who competes BB in team finals will come down to who scores higher in prelims for sure, and if Memmel and Sacramone were to tie?</span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"></span><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,51,51)">FX</span><br /><br /></span><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,51,51)">Prelims: Johnson, Sacramone, Memmel, Liukin, Peszek/Sloan</span><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,51,51)">Finals: Johnson, Sacramone, Memmel (any of the other 3 are fine substitutes)</span><br /><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,51,51)">Outlook: Floor Exercise is an excellent event for the USA women and this is certainly an apparatus in which they will look to close in on at least part of the team's deficit on China that will likely be carried over from the uneven bars. Any of the above six actually could be a legitimate use in team finals on this apparatus. I am predicting, however, that Sloan will sit this event out in prelims. Potential A-scores of Johnson (6.6), Sacramone (6.4), and Memmel (6.5) mean that Sloan's 6.2, even with the international look and all, just doesn't quite cut it. Sloan tied Peszek (with a potential A-score of 6.5 on FX) at the camp on day one with 15.3s apiece and with Peszek's higher start score she seems like an ever so slightly better choice here. However, they can easily swap in Sloan if Peszek is the slightest bit off in training. I believe Johnson, Memmel, and Sacramone are great for team finals on FX, I do wonder though if Memmel will still put in the double arabian (which will make a difference of .2 in the A-score if she were to do her original double full instead) even though she will have yet to compete it along with the rest of her routine until prelims at the Games. </span><br /><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Brief Analysis on What Each Team Member Brings to USA's Quest for the Gold</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)">Shawn Johnson: </span></span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)">The three-time world champion brings experience, consistency, and generally good scoring favor to the USA team. Oh, and we cannot forget that Johnson appears to be likely competing all four events in team finals at the Olympics. Johnson may just be contributing the top USA marks on vault, beam, and floor. If USA were to lose her than they might as well just hand the gold to China before the competition is to even begin.</span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)">Nastia Liukin: </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)">Liukin's uneven bars is reason enough for her to be on the team, and also contributes world-class work on balance beam and potentially good work on floor exercise. Experience of three world championships and winning nine world medals should prove invaluable to the USA team in Beijing. </span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)">Chellsie Memmel-</span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)"> USA's gold medal chances are in much better condition with Chellsie Memmel arguably being in the best shape of her life at really the best possible time, too. The whiplash incident at the camp likely won't be an issue heading into the games at all for the fierce competitior who tore her rotator cuff on her shoulder during the world championship team finals and went on to finish the meet like nothing had happened. Memmel has the potential to contribute in team finals on bars, beam, and floor.</span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)">Alicia Sacramone-<span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"> </span></span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)">Sacramone has won three world medals on the vault and her strength there alone adds several tenths to the team's score. A triple twist upgrade bumps up Alicia's start value on floor exercise to a 6.4 and barring something unusual should compete in team finals there as well. Contributing to the team on balance beam is also a strong possibility, and with seven world medals in her back pocket the self-proclaimed "mother hen" of the squad will bring leadership, determination, and experience to the USA team in Beijing.</span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)">Samantha Peszek- </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)">Peszek, who as said by Elfi Schlegel as "skittish last year" has improved and proved to be a solid and reliable competitor on all apparatus this year. Peszek does nothing breathtakingly spectacular but nothing bad either, and could do vault and maybe even floor in team finals. However, with Sloan now on the team Peszek could actually be sitting out on the event, vault, which many still consider as her top attribute to the team. Peszek's choice to become an all-arounder, though at times looked to be questionable, ultimately did pay off in the end. </span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)">Bridget Sloan- </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)">If Bridget can get those bars handstands consistent there is some possibility that we will see her on that event in team finals. She is also capable of contributing on vault and maybe even floor in team finals on the team, but her position is really more to be a plug-in athlete on those events, but certainly a good one at that.</span><br /><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(255,102,0)">Is This Process of Naming the Olympic Team Too Exhaustive For the Gymnasts?<br /><br /></span><span style="COLOR: rgb(255,102,0)">With two major injuries (three if you count Memmel) happening at the camp, all signs seem to point to yes. While having three pressure-packed meets will do very well for the gymnasts' mental toughness and confidence levels heading into the biggest meet of their lives, the potential for injury, as proven at the camp, runs at an all-time high.<br /><br />It was said by most insiders that five spots to Johnson, Liukin, Memmel, Sacramone, and Peszek were sewn up at trials and having them compete at this camp meet could indeed backfire on the USA team who wants to send a team that is not only the best possible team, but in the best possible shape.<br /><br />However, Martha K. was definitely intelligent to wait to the last minute to select this team. In the end, Bridget Sloan was unquestionably the best pick for the last spot, but would anyone have said that back in Philly? Surely not.<br /><br />Worley's injuries cannot really be blamed as much on this selection process, as she didn't compete at Nationals. But in her case, she could've easily been named had her leg held up and thus might've been able to have competed great UB routines at the camp.<br /><br />Had the team been named in Philly, than there would be no Sloan or Worley on the roster and Bieger would've most likely been picked, and as the camp showed us all Jana really wasn't peaking at the right time. If I were to change how this selection process were to go down, I would say hold Nationals around or maybe a tad bit earlier than when Olympic Trials would usually be held (mid to late June) and hold an Olympic Trials in mid to late July, in front of a packed house and all, and decide the team right then and there. I think that would cover the needs for picking the team as close to the games as possible, and eliminating the camp meet entirely would do well for the girls staying healthy and in peak form in preparation for the Olympics. </span><br /><br /><br /><br />That is all.MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-7456313010696483892008-07-17T15:54:00.001-07:002009-05-29T10:45:41.338-07:00Karolyi Camp Rumor Roundup+ AnalysisAnyway, it appears as though the 12 girls that advanced to the final selection camp meet at the Karolyi Ranch arrived safe and sound yesterday and began their training sessions today. Below is a list of the rumors and insider info that I have picked up from various message boards and other sources.<br /><br /><ul style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,153)"><li>Apparently NBCOlympics.com is doing some coverage of the camp meet, but specifically what coverage we will be getting is unknown. Tomorrow there will be an AA competition around 12:30 P.M., and Saturday and EF competition around 5:30-6:00ish in which all of the girls compete two events. The official announcement has been said to be between 7:00 and 8:00 Central Time on Saturday evening, and it appears as though NBCOlympics.com will be the first source to officially leak out the info of the team selection to the public.</li><li>There has been an abundance of varying reports that have suggested in the EF competition that either the gymnasts decide which events they will compete in (like they did at the Karolyi International Friendly meet back in May) or that Martha K. will be choosing the events for the gymnasts. It has also been said that Martha K. may even demand some of the gymnasts to compete on their weaker/weakest events in this meet to better analyze which bubble gymnasts can deal with the pressure and which ones cannot. However, Shawn Johnson's blog entry said that the gymnasts do choose the events they will compete in, so I would say that is what is most likely to happen.</li><li>According to a message from USAG, only the families of the gymnasts will be allowed to see the meet, in addition to the selection committee and what not. However, no word yet if the Karolyi summer campers will get to see the meet like they did in 2004.</li><li>Overall, most of the gymnasts have looked at least somewhat shaky in training sessions.</li><li>Chellsie Memmel has been falling on her piked barani on beam.<br /></li><li>Samantha Peszek looks all-around shaky, though it is important to remember that Peszek looked lackluster in training at Nationals and Olympic Trials and in both cases turned in pretty solid performances.</li><li>Shayla is looking especially solid and her good UB work looks like it definitely could get her the last spot on the team.</li><li>Jana Bieger looks no different than usual; uninspiring, awful form, yet consistent.<br /></li><li>Bela is giving glowing reports on how tough Nastia is; Bela loves Nastia and Shawn to death so this isn't surprising. It has also been reported that Martha K. and USAG want Bela away from the girls as much as possible.</li><li>Ivana Hong may be (gasp) injured. Apparently she has a knee injury, and as she was dismounting beam and subsequently grabbed her knee in pain. Nothing official if she has pulled out or anything like that, but I would say if she does have a major knee issue she is either going to brave it and compete sloppily (knowing Al Fong that would seem likely) or just withdraw. Either option would make her chances of even an being named an alternate slim to nill, but again no word yet if this rumor is totally legit and if Hong is indeed planning to bow out of the race.</li><li>Sloan's knee is still giving her issues, Martha K. and Co. aren't interested in her any longer for the last spot.</li><li>Johnson's put on a few pounds since Trials and Martha K. isn't happy. (Note: I find this one to be especially ludicrous, and if it is true it is probably just because Johnson is resting a tad bit in order to peak at the right time for the Games)<br /></li><li>A-Sac was seen icing her knee, though still appears to be fine.<br /></li><li>That is all the info I have to provide, and my final thought is this: If Peszek is looking shaky (and continues to look that way, though honestly I think she will get it together) and if Hong is injured, Mattie Larson HAS to be named as an alternate. Being an actual team member is still a bit of a stretch, but Larson is consistent, polished and it would be a tremendous experience for her to travel to Beijing with the team that would only benefit her future career as a potentially great gymnast for the United States.</li></ul><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Predictions for Events Gymnasts Will Compete in EF Competition</span><br /><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,0,204)"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Shawn Johnson:</span> UB, FX</span><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,0,204)">Reasoning: Martha K. and Co. need to know that Johnson's 6.4 A-score UB routine can be competed consistently (she missed a combination on trials night two which lowered her A-score back down to a 6.2), especially when it comes down to whether the selection committee feels that Bieger's unspectacular but consistent UB work is enough for the last spot on the team. As for FX, Johnson getting her whip+triple twist around will be another crucial test for her.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(204,51,204)">Nastia Liukin:</span><span style="COLOR: rgb(204,51,204)"> UB, FX</span><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(204,51,204)">Reasoning: Improvement on vault and being a rock solid beamer all year make bars and floor the key areas for Liukin to focus on. Liukin's 7.7 A-score UB routine has been inconsistent all year and Liukin needs another chance to prove herself and get her confidence level a boost on that event prior to the Games. Liukin could potentially compete FX in team finals with her recent improvement of consistency there, and Martha K. and Co. will look to see if that consistency is still going strong.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(204,102,0)"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Chellsie Memmel: </span>VT, FX</span><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(204,102,0)">Reasoning: Floor Exercise is a relative no-brainer, simply because Memmel is planning a double arabian upgrade which could get her A-score to a potential of 6.5. Memmel is the ideal candidate for a floor performer in team finals (besides Johnson and Sacramone) at the Olympics, even more so than Liukin and Peszek, and this upgrade could make for a high-scoring routine if done successfully. However, the other event in which she would compete is sketchy, but vault seemed like the best option because she is scheduled to bring back her DTY here and she has been superbly consistent on bars and beam throughout Nationals and Olympic Trials.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(255,0,0)">Alicia Sacramone: </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(255,0,0)">VT, FX</span><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(255,0,0)">Reasoning: This is a pretty obvious decision, especially since Alicia has been said to be unveiling her Amanar vault and triple twist on floor here at the ranch. Alicia's calf issue is perhaps the most dangerous threat of an injury to the Fab Four (Shawn, Nast, Sac, and Chellsie) at this point in time, however knowing Alicia's immense experience and confidence she should be able to come to the Games armed with fire and determination to lead her team to a gold medal, and to bag some individual glory as well.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(0,153,0)">Samantha Peszek:</span><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,153,0)"> BB, FX</span><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,153,0)">Reasoning: Sam P.'s has made improvements on floor, and while not spectacular on that event at trials, she would be an ideal back-up on that event assuming Johnson, Sacramone, and Memmel are to compete that event in team finals. Peszek has the potential for a 6.5 A-score on that event if she brings back the 1.5 twist + double pike combo she did at Nationals. However, she may end up doing beam if she brings her double arabian dismount to the camp, as landing a DTY for her is not a problem and will still have the opportunity to do so at the AA competition. </span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,102,0)">Shayla Worley:</span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,102,0)"> UB, BB</span><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,102,0)">Reasoning: This is an obvious choice, but if Martha K. were to slap some sense into Shayla's coach, Jeff Wood, than it would be very reasonable, and intelligent, for Worley to say farewell to the other events and just come to the camp competing bars and nothing else. USA has five excellent beam workers and that is more than enough depth the U.S. needs on that event, though if Worley really has an excellent routine there than she might as well show it. However, competing vault at trials=exceptionally poor decision making. And if she dare steps onto a floor exercise mat Martha K. should hide her music immediately, as Worley would be only building upon her gigantic kingdom of back injuries. If Worley comes to the camp with that 7.0 A-score routine on bars, I feel she is a worthy risk to take for the last spot, even if injuries are to come along for the ride.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Jana Bieger:</span> UB, FX</span><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Reasoning: Martha K.'s rumored tactics of having gymnasts compete on their weakest events are of no use to the ever consistent and predictable gymnastics of Bieger. Bars will really make the decision for her, and if she can outscore Johnson than her case for getting the last spot on the team would be very strong. However, as I have said Bieger's scoring potential doesn't really compare to that of Worley or Sloan on this event, and if Bieger and Johnson's scores are right in line with one another there really is no sense in taking Bieger in my opinion. As for floor exercise, Bieger has been shaky there but does have a 6.4 A-score there so she could be used on that event in an extreme emergency. But it is bars, once considered Jana's weakest event, that is either her ticket to compete in the Olympics, or to watch from the stands.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(153,51,0)">Bridget Sloan:</span><span style="COLOR: rgb(153,51,0)"> UB, FX</span><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(153,51,0)">Reasoning: Sloan's problems on both of these events at trials, and her two major events to possibly contribute to the team (obviously more so bars) look to be her key focus at the camp. However, a clean floor routine in the AA competition may persuade her and/or Martha K. for her to compete beam, as this is the most mental event of all and while not Sloan's strength, and will test her determination in a pressure-packed situation. Sloan's decision to compete FX at trials looked to be premature with her knee injury and all, and possibly detracted from her focus on the other events. Bridget was wise enough to know Martha K. likes her AAers and if Sloan were to be one she would have herself a ticket to Beijing, but perhaps not wise enough to know when to peak at the right time and what events she most needs to qualify for the Olympic team. The bottom line is that Sloan needs to nail her UB sets at the camp like her life depended on it to get on that team, and while her chances may not be overly great now they certainly haven't vanished.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)">Ivana Hong:</span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)"> VT, UB</span><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,102)">Reasoning: Assuming Hong is ready to go, these are really the only events we would need her on in an emergency. Bars, though maybe not her strongest event, has improved and did score very well (15.55) on day two of trials. Vault is also very important, especially if Hong looks to hold off Mattie Larson for one of the alternate positions. Traveling alternate looks to be the best-case scenario for Ivana at this point, being the final team member would require stunning performances on uneven bars that we have yet to see. </span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(102,51,51)">Mattie Larson:</span><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,51)"> VT/BB/FX</span><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,51)">Reasoning: Martha K. may want Larson to compete on a weaker event of hers, beam, to see if she is mentally ready to be at least an alternate. Larson makes for an ideal back-up athlete on vault and floor and will look to outscore Hong and Memmel (possibly Peszek, though unlikely) on vault and Sloan, Peszek, and possibly a few others on floor to solidify her status as a possible alternate to the team. </span><br /><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(0,51,51)">Chelsea Davis: </span><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,51,51)">VT/UB</span><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(0,51,51)">Reasoning: I have failed to recognize this young lady as a potential hopeful even for an alternate spot, though I do feel she deserves to be at the camp with her good performance at the trials. A rumored DTY upgrade and unspectacular yet consistent UB work could, if everything goes Davis' way, make her the 3rd alternate to the team. A long shot for sure, but if Davis delivers on those two events in particular there will certainly be more than a few important eyes looking at her, and it also doesn't hurt to have a former Karolyi star, Kim Zmeskal, as your coach.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,255)"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Corrie Lothrop:</span> VT/FX</span><br /><span style="COLOR: rgb(102,51,255)">Reasoning: This second event is of irrelevance to Lothrop's chances, but vault is probably one of the only reasons she is at the final camp and of course has said she might do an Amanar if its ready. However "if its ready" is not going to cut it for even an alternate position, let alone a spot on the team, and if Lothrop is really gunning to snatch Sam P.'s vault specialist spot this Amanar is going to have to be Cheng Fei good at the very least. Assuming Sam P. delivers another strong meet at the camp, she really has earned her spot and considering the fact that she is (at the very least) a back-up gymnast on any event, Martha K. and Co. will feel very safe using Peszek if any emergencies are to arise. One-event luxuries are not going to be considered for the team (unless if its bars, which Lothrop won't be contributing) unless of course they are a luxury that cannot be refused, and an "if its ready" Amanar simply won't qualify as one in the grand scheme of things. Lothrop is far too risky to send and can generate a far bigger consequence than it can a reward, though if this Amanar is proved to be reliable enough she could find herself as an alternate.</span><br /><br /><br /><br />That is all.MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-43209994986058909642008-07-15T07:38:00.001-07:002008-12-09T15:03:29.420-08:00China Team Selection<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO5WzremwhEJokfCbtEFMdBUH7C4F1Hd8TuULm0evSF3kUCU1STTsVCRzY5Bw5_OSjErPpV-5O9kAu-zGyLIpGpWZ55dbeu0M5QZQaVQY9BcUACkS3nYCH36cM9HAy6dakqun90QfscLBN/s1600-h/610x.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO5WzremwhEJokfCbtEFMdBUH7C4F1Hd8TuULm0evSF3kUCU1STTsVCRzY5Bw5_OSjErPpV-5O9kAu-zGyLIpGpWZ55dbeu0M5QZQaVQY9BcUACkS3nYCH36cM9HAy6dakqun90QfscLBN/s400/610x.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5223255324888753234" border="0" /></a><span style="font-style: italic;">Above: Deng Linlin appears to have gotten the much-anticipated 6th spot on the Chinese Women's Olympic Gymnastics Team</span><br /><br />It is widely rumored, though not confirmed, that the Chinese Women's Olympic Gymnastics Team is as follows:<br /><br /><ol style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);"><li>Cheng Fei</li><li>Yang Yilin</li><li>Jiang Yuyuan</li><li>He Kexin</li><li>Li Shanshan</li><li>Deng Linlin</li></ol>Alternates<br /><ol><li>Xiao Sha</li><li>He Ning</li><li>Sui Lu</li></ol> <span style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0);"><br />Apparently, PPP's health was felt by the Chinese coaches to be too much of a liability to the team. With that aside, if you read my earlier blog post on who should get the last spot for China I am definitely a tad bit disappointed, and surprised, to see Deng Linlin get the last spot. Even though I have great liking for Deng's gymnastics, I think the 6th girl needed to have good UB work to really help be there for China in an emergency, and to my knowledge Deng's UB is only adequate. Yang's FX work is definitely stronger than Deng, though in a pinch they can use Deng on that event in team finals if deemed necessary. It looks like the last spot really came down to beam, and it appears that China wants to use Deng to do BB in team finals instead of Yang, which would then mean Yang wouldn't have to do AA in team finals. That's actually a smart move on China's part, however in that scenario I would've actually taken a gamble and taken Xiao Sha for the last spot. Deng is a solid competitor, much more so than Sha, but she only has a couple of world cup meets and a scarcely-attended Chinese Nationals to her experience. And we shouldn't forget that she even suffered falls on beam and floor at the prelims of the Chinese Nationals which kept her out of event finals in both cases, so she is by no means a total rock in competition. Interestingly enough, I originally predicted Deng Linlin to be on the Olympic team, but after Chinese Nats I thought it was a no-brainer to switch my prediction after Sui Lu won beam and floor at those championships. Another classic example of why sticking to your first instinct comes in handy. Anyway, now that this appears to be China's Olympic team, I will do a BB outlook post and updated posts of the team, AA, and FX outlooks (I don't think there is any need for a VT or UB updated outlook posts, so I won't bother with those).</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 153, 153);"><br /><br />Also, Ukaraine's Olympic team has been announced:</span> <ol style="color: rgb(51, 153, 153);"><li>Dariya Zgoba</li><li>Irina Krasnyanska</li><li>Alina Kozich</li><li>Valentina Holenkova</li><li>Marina Proskurina</li><li>Anastasia Koval</li></ol><span style="color: rgb(51, 153, 153);">Alternate: Olga Scherbatykh<br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 204);"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Official Schedule for the Camp<br /><br /></span></span></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 153, 153);"><span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 204);">Wednesday, July 16th-Gurlies arrive, possible training?<br />Thursday, July 17th-Gurlies train<br />Friday, July 18th- AA competition for all, scheduled to start around 12:30<br />Saturday, July 19th- EF competition, every athlete does two events which either the gymnast or Martha K. decides which gymnast is competing what, scheduled to start around 5:30. Team selection should be announced late that night.<br />Sunday, July 20th- Announced team (and presumably the alternates?) appear and are interviewed on the Today Show<br /><br /><br /></span></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 153, 153);"><span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 204);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span></span></div><span style="color: rgb(51, 153, 153);"><span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 204);"></span></span><br />That is all.MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-69818185353980324532008-07-13T13:25:00.001-07:002008-07-13T17:02:23.764-07:00Mediterranean Gym Cup Analysis<span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">As one of the final international meets prior to the Olympic Games, a tri-meet took place in Rome last week with Romania, Italy, and Brazil battling it out. Italy and Brazil should both play supporting roles throughout the competition in Beijing, not getting the limelight that will flock to USA and China, but will still play an important part of the competition especially when individual medals are concerned. Italy and Brazil's respective stars, Vanessa Ferrari and Jade Barbosa, provided us clues as to their chances of challenging for AA and individual event medals at the Games. Romania, complete with their leaders Sandra Izbasa and Steliana Nistor in hand, will look to steal away some of the medals and glory that is predicted to be reserved for China and USA. Here, we got a preview look at the condition of these three countries en route to the 2008 Olympic Games, less than a month away. Results <a href="http://www.gymnasticsresults.com/2008/meditercup2008w.html">here</a>.<br /><br /><br /></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 51, 51);">Romania<br /><br /><br />Sandra Izbasa- </span><span style="color: rgb(0, 51, 51);">Upgrades including a DTY vault, and a 6.9 A-score on beam have looked to make Izbasa a potential dark horse in the Olympic AA final. However, one thing stands in the way of her being a serious AA threat: her UB double front dismount. This was hardly the first time she has fallen on this dismount, and it remains to be seen if she is going to change her dismount prior to the games and whether Romania will have to use her on UB in team finals, the latter of which will be decided upon the recovery of compatriot Cerasela Patrascu. Finished only .15 behind winner Vanessa Ferrari, but would've won if it weren't for the dreaded bars that have routinely been Izbasa's downfall (only a 5.5 A-score at this meet).</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 51, 51);">Steliana Nistor- </span><span style="color: rgb(0, 51, 51);">Varying reports have gone from the fact that the reason Nistor only competed UB here was that she was simply resting her body to the fact that she has a back brace and is suffering from back issues. Her UB routine scored (for her) a lackluster score of 15.45, though one must keep in mind that the scores here were quite harsh for all of the gymnasts. Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, Jiang Yuyuan, and Yang Yilin all look to be formidable challengers for the AA podium, though with Ferrari looking shaky all year the European judges could save their high marks for Nistor at the Games. In that instance Nistor would very likely still be a top AA challenger assuming she is healthy and confident.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 51, 51);">Romanian Team Outlook</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 51, 51);">: With Patrascu's status still in the question, it remains to be seen if Patrascu is to be ready for the games exactly who she will replace. There is no obvious choice, though it might be Adriana Tamarjan as she is apparently still injured, the only one of the current Romanian Olympians who didn't compete at this meet. The other three members of the team: Andrea Acatrinei (beam specialist), Gabriela Dragoi (average on every event), and Andrea Grigore (decent VT/FX) are not especially strong assets to the team and are unlikely to be seen much in team finals. The best scenario for Romania is to have Patrascu replace Grigore with Tamarjan getting healthy and ready to compete in the games. Whether Romania will win bronze likely has much to do with Cerasela's recovery, and Romania will need her at peak form at the games to challenge Russia and its recently-increased depth. Romania unsurprisingly won the team competition here, but some weak scores on bars (even a few on beam and floor) are alarming for a team which doesn't want 2008 to be their first Olympic games since 1972 where Romania fails to bring home a team medal.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 0, 0);">Italy</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 0, 0);">Vanessa Ferrari-</span><span style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0);"> Ferrari boasted the top uneven bars mark of this competition (15.5, 6.8 A), but was shaky elsewhere. This was arguably the best competition for Ferrari this year, but that isn't saying much for the former World and European AA champion who is continuing to battle tendonitis and other foot injuries that have plagued the Italian diva since last year. Ferrari competed a shaky DTY here (14.5), and had watered down beam and floor routines (15.35, 14.35). Ferrari was not credited for either her triple turn or her Memmel turn at this competition, and thus so far has a potential A-score of 6.0 on FX (she was given credit for only a 5.8 here). Upgrading to both her double-double and triple twist would get her A-score at a 6.4, but at this meet both her full-in and 2.5 twist were sloppily done and it appears unlikely she will get both tumbling passes back in time for Beijing. Ferrari has stated she won't be healthy by the Games' arrival, and it looks like Ferrari is more than a long shot for an AA medal of any color. However, Ferrari has proven herself to be an extremely tough competitor in the past, so one would be unwise to count her out just yet. </span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 0, 0);">Carlotta Giovannini- </span><span style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0);">Though not strong as an AAer, Giovannini's vaulting strengths are crucial for the success of the Italian team. They could become even more crucial if Giovannini comes to Beijing armed with her rumored Amanar and/or a Khorkina II vault (RO 1/2-on front tuck 1.5 off). Here, a solid DTY was all that was necessary (15.1), and was a good-enough result for the 2007 European vault champion who is coming off a sprained knee that kept her out of most of the Italian Nationals. Giovannini will also look to improve on her other events, floor exercise in particular, in order to bring Italy her maximum potential in August.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 0, 0);">Italian Team Outlook: </span><span style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0);">Italy's decision to allow Ferrari compete at the 2007 Worlds, as an AAer no less, could end up backfiring immensely on Ferrari and her team at the Olympics. Italy's strategy to have Ferrari compete watered-down routines (especially on BB and FX) this year have not helped speed up Ferrari's recovery, and it will be interesting to see if she has enough time and energy to get some consistent upgrades prior to Beijing. Italy is no doubt a long shot for a team medal (though barring a disaster they should make team finals), as is Vanessa Ferrari for individual medals. However, Italy's medal hopes may end up laying in an unexpected place. If Carlotta Giovannini's vault upgrades materialize, she should be a solid contender in vault finals. Though once again, the probability for that happening remains relatively low. </span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(51, 204, 0);">Brazil<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />Jade Barbosa-</span></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 204, 0);"> Brazil's star has looked anything but for the entirety of this year, and her shakiness continued at this meet with falls of beam and problems on bars. A 1.5 twist + front double-full upgrade on floor brings Barbosa's potential A-score on that event at a 6.3, though she was only credited for a 6.1 at this meet. Only competed a DTY (15.1) and will likely come to the Games without any experience of landing her Amanar vault in competition this year. Barbosa losing the Brazilian AA title to lesser-known Ana Claudia Silva has no doubt put a damper on her confidence, and whether she can get it back before Beijing remains to be seen. With Barbosa, the potential is there but her consistency is another story. At top form Barbosa could be in the AA medal mix, but her vault chances appear to be slim based on the fact that she has not landed her Amanar or Cheng vaults once this year.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(51, 204, 0);">Daiane dos Santos- </span><span style="color: rgb(51, 204, 0);">Is pretty close to peak form on floor exercise, her signature event. However the judges didn't see it that way, clobbering her on both scores and downgrading three elements in the process, thus making her A-score a 6.1 instead of its proposed value of 6.4. Daiane is rumored to be putting in her piked double arabian back in as well, getting her A-score to a 6.5. However, doing that can cause some serious consequences. If her layout Arabian gets downgraded like it was here an additional piked double arabian wouldn't get credited because it would be considered a repetition of the same skill. Dos Santos has the potential to be a top challenger on floor exercise just like she was in Athens, but as this meet proved she also has the potential to be penalized harshly for silly errors that will keep her out of the game entirely.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(51, 204, 0);">Brazilian Team Outlook: </span><span style="color: rgb(51, 204, 0);">While dos Santos' comeback is looking good, Khiulani Dias' absence from the team and Barbosa's unreliable confidence have put Brazil in a precarious position heading into the games. Making team finals is likely one of Brazil's top priorities, and can do that easily if they put together a strong effort in prelims. However, inconsistent performances from Brazil could put them in jeopardy of making team finals, as all of the teams that aren't USA, China, Romania, or Russia are all very close to one another when it comes to scoring potential. On the other hand, it can also be argued that Brazil missing team finals would be a blessing in disguise for this team that has little shot for a medal, which would then allow Jade Barbosa and Daiane dos Santos to be fully rested for the AA and apparatus finals. </span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Final Thoughts From This Competition</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Though this was just a low key event, the current outlook for all three of these teams doesn't look overly impressive. Romania really does need Cerasela on the Olympic team, even if it is just for bars. A large part of Italy and Brazil's success in the Olympics depends on Ferrari and Barbosa, and both girls don't look near to their peak form at all. Hopefully Steliana just competing bars was merely precautionary, as she does have the potential to win some individual medals in August. Sandra Izbasa's UB dismount aside, this young lady looks to be in great shape and ready to help Romania win a team medal in Beijing. Who will rise above the pressure and become a shining star and who will falter and be whisked away in the darkness at the 2008 Olympics? We shall see.<br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Note: Gymnastics and Stuff and the Gymnut each have great commentary on this meet as well, and I advise you to check it out.</span><br /></span><br />That is all.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br /></span></span>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-55153516886933166752008-07-07T18:48:00.000-07:002008-12-09T15:03:30.617-08:00And spot #6 goes to......... Part 2-China<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRadyU0A-wID1grTtlaIdsmDFXcdR_1RIODbmjn5pcL16quWADLIxPsDMZPhbzHP7tnlAjW0QuyYjZdHO_GRbLpp9mUTgNyj28CXOwvZ_ltRrJ5Cu-cHevdKszBhxQpqh8-wrOl22hZckp/s1600-h/xin_5210032517006883012311.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRadyU0A-wID1grTtlaIdsmDFXcdR_1RIODbmjn5pcL16quWADLIxPsDMZPhbzHP7tnlAjW0QuyYjZdHO_GRbLpp9mUTgNyj28CXOwvZ_ltRrJ5Cu-cHevdKszBhxQpqh8-wrOl22hZckp/s400/xin_5210032517006883012311.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5221789634000271266" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdVsip0ss85ybVvqttMEoHT9TJSQjNKo0EFzEFXcPt0jZ3xgIyHZkRypr26T8Z-fYG8JS032D8O4-ixKi7bbRmI81l7gHjj5x_THGw2aqUq-NsHyJFvYQECNuP1PZ-c0E1d_fqd4Zi-YVX/s1600-h/245_131216050.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 244px; height: 391px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdVsip0ss85ybVvqttMEoHT9TJSQjNKo0EFzEFXcPt0jZ3xgIyHZkRypr26T8Z-fYG8JS032D8O4-ixKi7bbRmI81l7gHjj5x_THGw2aqUq-NsHyJFvYQECNuP1PZ-c0E1d_fqd4Zi-YVX/s400/245_131216050.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5221789487005115714" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9BLJHKTLVt4zCrqEtBZHSJtGhcJd-5Ip7fGT_8pkL85aC7m9Ha7KWZWMvIH3305N6W98qoPd6bHDjPc9CadaDkG8-l0ZcSSd2H_V6uidtj-ayRsznCknk0EQJUeSCaGAFyRl3Jk4B4doO/s1600-h/4081hening1.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9BLJHKTLVt4zCrqEtBZHSJtGhcJd-5Ip7fGT_8pkL85aC7m9Ha7KWZWMvIH3305N6W98qoPd6bHDjPc9CadaDkG8-l0ZcSSd2H_V6uidtj-ayRsznCknk0EQJUeSCaGAFyRl3Jk4B4doO/s400/4081hening1.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5221789490868495618" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk9NFYvvvXWFrvaOKg9DTtEECZSPV3ZNaeqeTzz79ifzxrVWVEDN2WF4lCqMXDbmkYaOr6T8t8JRDOY_4kBiomc5fZ5tj6o_vj41WFAxxmHYV0AKs2P9tB0EZGcKaorB45IEaTUfkSQOtK/s1600-h/610x.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 366px; height: 212px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk9NFYvvvXWFrvaOKg9DTtEECZSPV3ZNaeqeTzz79ifzxrVWVEDN2WF4lCqMXDbmkYaOr6T8t8JRDOY_4kBiomc5fZ5tj6o_vj41WFAxxmHYV0AKs2P9tB0EZGcKaorB45IEaTUfkSQOtK/s400/610x.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5221789493817428466" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlRROTJDxOqIKXrzV3SvB240-8p6WnGcY-HMkYmad82S0V4uNJVfimXmILBBoRg_hGNYW5wRubH6ZiGSpTFrb6KLdOaq0AjugHOwn84xkYfeZn-44Nxw94HtwxIKVCdprlRC9Mauzbcl70/s1600-h/000802ab4a630997482101.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 208px; height: 304px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlRROTJDxOqIKXrzV3SvB240-8p6WnGcY-HMkYmad82S0V4uNJVfimXmILBBoRg_hGNYW5wRubH6ZiGSpTFrb6KLdOaq0AjugHOwn84xkYfeZn-44Nxw94HtwxIKVCdprlRC9Mauzbcl70/s400/000802ab4a630997482101.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5221789494441873986" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmpOXaxtHkdtfXjF2uAC-dn32byk8lXigJ8g4c1rasH4rYUlgaLF_USOA_Hww580IDziTSri47PYQc060Bp0jkLDHP34q2dR17EjAXPm6cI12y1Kc01MDUQZPA0Ay2W16WEuMzjRvrNFi1/s1600-h/picrcco7ybt.gif"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 210px; height: 297px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmpOXaxtHkdtfXjF2uAC-dn32byk8lXigJ8g4c1rasH4rYUlgaLF_USOA_Hww580IDziTSri47PYQc060Bp0jkLDHP34q2dR17EjAXPm6cI12y1Kc01MDUQZPA0Ay2W16WEuMzjRvrNFi1/s400/picrcco7ybt.gif" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5221789500425622914" border="0" /></a><br />It remains unknown when the Chinese will officially name their Olympic teams, for men and women, (though it is rumored to be within the next week) but since China is fully aware of the much-anticipated USA vs. China gymnastics showdown for the ages, they could end up waiting until after Martha K. announces the U.S. team so that China can plan their team accordingly. However, such tactics won't be at all necessary, as the U.S. team is pretty much set in stone as to who will go and who won't. Cheng Fei, Jiang Yuyuan, He Kexin, and Yang Yilin are locks for the Chinese team, and do to a surprising lack of depth on beam Li Shanshan should be named as the 5th girl regardless of how inconsistent she is. (she hit two relatively shaky, but clean, routines at the recent Barcelona World Cup which I think sealed the deal for her)Let's take a look at the line-ups of the Chinese women assuming Cheng, Yuyuan, Kexin, Yilin, and Shanshan are all on the Olympic team.<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(102, 0, 0);">Vault<br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 0);">Prelims: Cheng, Yuyuan, Yilin, Kexin, Shanshan (?)<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 0);">Finals: Cheng, Yuyuan, Yilin (Kexin if needed)<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 0);">Outlook: The 5th vault girl is of little use to the Chinese team, as the lowest score in prelims is dropped and China making team finals is no worry at all. Shanshan competed a 1.5 yurchenko at the Shanghai Test Event (crashed completely) and has since been competing an FTY, and Pang Panpan has yet to show her DTY, which she hasn't competed since she missed the vault en route to giving the AA gold to Vanessa Ferrari at '06 Worlds. The 6th girl is not needed to fill any holes here.<br /><br /></span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 204);">Uneven Bars</span><br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 204);">Prelims: Kexin, Yilin, Yuyuan, ?, ?<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 204);">Finals: Kexin, Yilin, Yuyuan, (Pang Panpan is capable of scoring higher than Yuyuan here)<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 204);">Outlook: Kexin and Yilin are Olympic gold medal contenders on this event with 7.7 A-scores looking to crush any hope for American dominance in Olympic team finals. Jiang Yuyuan is a very solid 3rd bar worker, and while PPP can be used for that position there isn't a big difference between the general bars scores of the two gymnasts. However, if a bars specialist is to get injured what will China do? Shanshan is disgraceful to the Chinese on this apparatus, Fei doesn't even train bars, and if beam specialist Xiao Sha is to make the team she can contribute a decent, but unspectacular score here. This reason alone should guarantee both He Ning and PPP as alternate at bare minimum, but it remains to be seen whether China will take a potentially disastrous injury to a bars specialist in consideration when picking the last spot on the team.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">Balance Beam<br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">Prelims: Shanshan, Fei, Yilin, Yuyuan, ?<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">Finals: Shanshan, Fei, Yilin(?)<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">Outlook: Oddly enough, beam is China's weakest event and the one event where USA will look to make up what should be a solid deficit thanks to USA's weakness on UB. Li Shanshan is not as consistent a performer as one would like, but she is capable of getting a nice score even with a fall and given China's lack of BB depth the coaches have no choice but to send her. With Cheng Fei unlikely to get back her triple full dismount (which puts her A-score around 6.7) the big question remains on who will be the 3rd BB girl in team finals. The team should be satisfied enough to put Yang Yilin, a consistent but unspectacular performer on this apparatus. However, Xiao Sha and Sui Lu are capable of scoring much higher than Yang is, but than again both gymnasts are classic examples of "headcases," gymnasts with remarkable potential that cannot be consistent to save their lives.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(51, 102, 102);">Floor Exercise</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(51, 102, 102);"></span></div><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(51, 102, 102);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 102);">Prelims: Fei, Yuyuan, Yilin, Shanshan, Kexin<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 102);">Finals: Fei, Yuyuan, Yilin<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 102);">Outlook: Floor Exercise is a relatively similar situation to the team as uneven bars is, because the team final line-up is quite strong but there is no back-up for the Chinese if one of these three girls is to go down with injury/illness/etc. prior to team finals. With Shanshan and Kexin adequate on this event at best, the 6th girl will need to have at least some skill on floor, which would help the Olympic case of someone like He Ning or Deng Linlin.<br /><br /></span><br />As of now, there appear to be six gymnasts with a possibility (some are remote however) to go to Beijing as the last gymnast named to the team. Let us take a look at what qualities each of these gymnasts brings to the table, and whether those qualities will interest the Chinese coaches when selecting the all-important Olympic team.<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(102, 102, 0);">Xiao Sha<br /><br /><br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 0);">Pros: Xiao Sha is capable of a huge score on balance beam and hit beam during the pressure-packed team finals at last year's worlds after falling twice in prelims. Xiao is solid on the other three events, and can be used in team finals on VT, UB, or FX if an emergency is to occur.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 0);">Cons: Xiao is known for being extremely inconsistent on her money event, balance beam. One days she will hit like no other, while the next she will make a costly slip-up right before your eyes. With Yang Yilin having the potential for a 6.9 A-score, just .1 lower than Xiao's, it remains very questionable if the risk of taking Xiao will outweigh the reward.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 0);">Outlook: Yang Yilin's improvement on beam has likely meant game over for Xiao Sha's Olympic bid, but barring an administrative error she should still be kept as an alternate with a potentially strong beam score and decent routines on the other apparatus to be there for the Chinese to use if absolutely needed.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(102, 51, 102);">Sui Lu<br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(102, 51, 102);">Pros: Sui Lu won beam and floor at the Chinese Nationals, and was given extremely generous execution marks at those championships. A-scores of 7.1 on beam and 6.4 on floor will be hard to overlook when selecting the Olympic team.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 51, 102);">Cons: Sui Lu's Olympic chances have melted considerably after disastrous performances at the Moscow World Cup and the French Nationals indicated nothing more than that Sui Lu cannot deal with the pressure of being in senior international meets. Amongst all the various rumors of the Chinese team selection, Sui Lu has been hardly mentioned as having any whisker of a possibility to become the 6th girl named to the team.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 51, 102);">Outlook: I highly doubt after the Chinese Nationals that anyone in their right mind would think the Chinese would leave Sui Lu off the team. She seemed to have the entire package: high A-scores on events China needed her on, consistency, as well as good form and power to match. However, her performances at the two international assignments only showed the Chinese delegation all of the reasons they should not pick Sui Lu for the team, and those performances have not only been fatal to her Olympic bid but will also put stains on her reputation which has now become that of an unreliable competitor.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Pang PanPan</span></span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Pros: Pang PanPan is capable of higher UB scores than Jiang Yuyuan, the presumed lead-off bar worker for China in team finals. In addition to that, PPP is experienced and when healthy is capable of high-scoring work on beam and floor.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Cons: Unfortunately, PPP has been injured since helping the Chinese win team gold at the 2006 World Championships. These injuries likely cost her a chance to compete at the 2007 Worlds, and could very well do the same for her Olympic dream. It appears now that the only event PPP can really contribute is on uneven bars, and it can even be argued China doesn't need her there.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Outlook: PPP is generally scored favorably and her being able to outscore Yuyuan on UB should help her case out quite a bit. China is most in need of having UB back-up and PPP would be an ideal solution to this problem. However, injuries make it unlikely that she will return strong on VT, BB, and FX and be an ideal back-up gymnast on those apparatus. It will ultimately be a tough decision on China's part to risk a lack of BB or FX depth by sending a good UB gymnast to not only contribute a high mark to the team, but also an extra back-up bars girl (with PPP there would be four girls capable of high marks in team finals).</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">He Ning<br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">Pros: He Ning is experienced and reliable and also a potential back-up gymnast to be used in team finals on UB, BB, or FX. He Ning was named to both the 2006 and 2007 World teams (the only athlete besides Cheng Fei to have competed on both world teams) while contributing far less than other teammates with actual routines performed in team finals. There have been various rumors that He Ning is indeed the 6th girl to be named to the team.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">Cons: He Ning's capable scores on UB, BB, and FX, while solid, don't suggest the Chinese can't do without her in Beijing. Yang Yilin would be a much better option to compete BB in team finals, and in an emergency Ning isn't that much better on beam than Jiang Yuyuan, beam being Jiang's weakest event. If the Chinese delegation is indeed looking for another UB girl, PPP would be a somewhat better option just because of scoring potential. It is also worth noting that He Ning is the only serious contender for the team (besides Zhang Nan) that has not been sent to an international meet of any kind this year.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">Outlook: He Ning's selection to the last two world teams means that she is politically favored, and strong performances from Chinese Nationals definitely helped her Olympic chances even if she has no international competitions to show for this year. He Ning is a solid back-up option on FX and UB especially, the events China is most in need of more depth. Though Ning originally seemed like a long shot, she provides a pretty strong case for herself to be named as the last girl to the team.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 102, 0);">Deng Linlin</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 102, 0);">Pros: Deng is capable of high marks on vault, beam, and floor. A generally consistent competitor, she won both beam and floor at the Moscow World Cup which helps her case for having a good reputation with the international judges.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 102, 0);">Cons: Deng's falls on beam and floor at the Chinese Nationals, which subsequently kept her out of event finals in both cases, definitely put a yield to Deng's Olympic chances, as did her mysterious pull-out of the French Nationals which she was scheduled to compete in. Yang Yilin's improvement on beam and floor makes her scores there equal or perhaps even higher than what Deng is capable of, and that reason, in addition to inexperience, look to make it unlikely Deng will be named as the 6th gymnast to the team.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 102, 0);">Outlook: Though hardly a shoo-in for the last spot on the team, Deng's strengths on three apparatus make her ideal alternate material. A DTY vault and strong A-scores on beam and floor will be ideal to use if a substitution is needed, and while Deng lacks experience, she is a bit more consistent than Sui Lu and Xiao Sha and I personally think the Chinese would be idiotic to leave her off the team entirely.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Zhang Nan<br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Pros: Zhang Nan is the only athlete besides Cheng Fei with a legitimate chance at a second Olympic games. Her experience and prowess on beam is noteworthy, and won a bronze on beam at the Chinese Nationals ahead of Li Shanshan and Xiao Sha who suffered falls and finished behind Sui Lu, who looks to have little chance to make the team. Zhang has generally been scored favorably over the years by the judges, the most notable example being when she won Olympic AA bronze in Athens 2004 when Russian Anna Pavlova was felt by most to have put forth a superior effort in that meet.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Cons: Solid BB scores from Yang Yilin at recent meets (notably French Nationals AA final) provide little use for Zhang Nan to be named to the team. Li Shanshan and Xiao Sha are capable of higher marks than Zhang is, and the only reason Zhang would be named to the team would be for beam, which is likely far too little of a contribution than what China is looking for.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Outlook: The writing was on the wall when the coaches handed over the team captain duties that were formerly Zhang Nan's to Cheng Fei, and while Zhang Nan made an admirable comeback on beam at the Chinese Nationals, she simply brings too little to the table to be considered seriously for an Olympic birth.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">Things To Be Considered When Naming This Team:</span><br /><br /><ul style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);"><li>As far as alternates and substitution for injured teammates is concerned, the delegation has 24 hours prior to the beginning of prelims to submit the team's final roster, which means NO SUBSTITUTION after that is allowed. This fact alone, if considered, should help He Ning or (especially) PPP's chances because Cheng Fei or Li Shanshan competing UB in team finals would be the laughing stock of the gymnastics world and someone like Xiao Sha or He Ning to compete there in TF would also open a big door for the United States team, which then would likely have a smaller UB deficit to China in that scenario.<br /></li><li>Xiao Sha seems to be incapable of hitting two clean beam sets in a row among qualifications and finals, whether it be a world cup meet or a national/world championship. So, if Xiao Sha is to get that 6th spot, if she hits in prelims than the Chinese should NOT use her in team finals, subbing in Yang Yilin to compete BB in TF instead. However, if she falls in prelims than China should select to her to compete BB in TF in a heartbeat, with past history making it a good indication she would hit and score highly.</li></ul><ul style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);"><li>China's lack of depth on BB and FX s considerably less so than UB, which makes me think that the 6th girl should have at least an adequate, preferably very good, UB routine.</li></ul>Let us take a look at the possible scenarios if one of the Chinese gymnasts is to get injured, assuming the team is Fei, Yuyuan, Kexin, Yilin, Shanshan, and Ning:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">Cheng Fei</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">possible sub: Deng Linlin</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">VT: Yuyuan, Yilin, Kexin</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">UB: not affected</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">BB: Shanshan, Yilin, Linlin</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">FX: Yuyuan, Yilin, Linlin</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">Yang Yilin<br /></span><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">possible subs: PPP/Linlin/Sha</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">VT: Fei, Yuyuan, Kexin</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">UB: Kexin, Yuyuan, Ning</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">BB: Shanshan, Fei, Linlin/Sha</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">FX: Fei, Yuyuan, Ning</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">He Kexin</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">possible subs: PPP</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">VT: Fei, Yuyuan, Yilin</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">UB: Yilin, Yuyuan, PPP</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">BB: not affected</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">FX: not affected</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">Jiang Yuyuan<br /></span><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">possible subs: PPP</span><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 0, 0);"><br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">VT: Cheng, Yilin, Kexin</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">UB: Kexin, Yilin, Ning/PPP</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">BB: not affected</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">FX: Cheng, Yilin, Ning</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">Li Shanshan<br /></span><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">possible subs: Linlin/Sha</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">VT/UB/FX: not affected</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">BB: Fei, Yilin, Linlin/Sha</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">He Ning<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">Not a first choice for being in team finals, but her good routines on bars and floor will likely make PPP the substitute if He Ning is to get injured, with Deng Linlin being a possibility as well.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Predicted Team<br /></span><ol style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);"><li>Cheng Fei</li><li>Yang Yilin</li><li>Jiang Yuyuan</li><li>He Kexin</li><li>Li Shanshan</li><li>He Ning</li></ol><span style="font-weight: bold;">Alternates<br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><ol><li style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);">Pang PanPan</li><li style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);">Deng Linlin</li><li style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);">Xiao Sha</li></ol><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br />China's possible decision to include Ning as the last girl at first would look like an unintelligent decision, but the more and more one analyzes He Ning's potential for the team she really would be the best pick for the last girl. Though unlikely to compete in team finals unless if someone is to get injured, Ning provides strong experience, consistency, leadership, and reliable work on uneven bars and floor exercise, which are the events China is most in need of back-up gymnasts. Ning would simply be an insurance policy to the team, but a good one at that. We shall see who gets the last spot for China, and I don't think I'm the only person who is putting their money down on He Ning to the get the final spot for China.<br /><br /><br />Next Post: Mediterranean Gym Cup Analysis<br /><br />That is all.<br /><br /></span></div><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></div></div><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></div><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></div></div>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-49285832910940855092008-07-02T16:49:00.000-07:002008-12-09T15:03:31.089-08:00And Spot #6 Goes To..............<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEo3nzq1SrmdvGuN8qyn76oXHl7m8PI8_UYu5zKYdDpcFPkIY8NonDXJvJOPzHgqwDEwrLf_kvDlgTNAFugRjmNnMJFK7D8DheN8rTcMNtLuGbvHBNUdQ6iEeUlchV9alSUq1Fq7UHcCLu/s1600-h/1152923893_ea66f896b2.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEo3nzq1SrmdvGuN8qyn76oXHl7m8PI8_UYu5zKYdDpcFPkIY8NonDXJvJOPzHgqwDEwrLf_kvDlgTNAFugRjmNnMJFK7D8DheN8rTcMNtLuGbvHBNUdQ6iEeUlchV9alSUq1Fq7UHcCLu/s400/1152923893_ea66f896b2.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5219344934820882194" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEEWO1NI7aznmSYsAp7OkBLYrTuUTXINa3AHHqTe3qLZSVYBCPoug8Vj92OHvhoqYvwhfy_F8K44Nfbpdz2xYEvub-P4bE0tFRtu9PBHLShdPZG_r2q90xgows8e4uaLeHBXx_jwV3y7S-/s1600-h/80676401.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEEWO1NI7aznmSYsAp7OkBLYrTuUTXINa3AHHqTe3qLZSVYBCPoug8Vj92OHvhoqYvwhfy_F8K44Nfbpdz2xYEvub-P4bE0tFRtu9PBHLShdPZG_r2q90xgows8e4uaLeHBXx_jwV3y7S-/s400/80676401.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5219344935326243682" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_L25ChkXLSzSRYfXvToMKuk29ilOE1XRoZF3NyE53uvBM0QJJgtPmZAnzIeujZrgsUq4wgTZdruLS-wirkGK-BCb31dQ9pRs5WPo5BwTofDfsZY3Xl0c6bv4ZU1tOFCKX1swPHkl9czu0/s1600-h/00092122.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_L25ChkXLSzSRYfXvToMKuk29ilOE1XRoZF3NyE53uvBM0QJJgtPmZAnzIeujZrgsUq4wgTZdruLS-wirkGK-BCb31dQ9pRs5WPo5BwTofDfsZY3Xl0c6bv4ZU1tOFCKX1swPHkl9czu0/s400/00092122.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5219344936593105570" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 153, 0);">At the conclusion of the women's U.S. Olympic Trials, it appeared that five girls: Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, Alicia Sacramone, Chellsie Memmel, and Samantha Peszek have all but made the team, thus leaving room for one more spot. Who is going to get it? Well, the five aforementioned names have us covered on really every event in prelims and finals, with the notable exception of a third bars girl to compete in team finals that is not Shawn Johnson. With the final camp set to take place in a few weeks, it appears that the last spot is between three girls: Jana Bieger, Bridget Sloan, and Shayla Worley. The sixth girl will ultimately be going for bars and bars alone, which means it is not likely that the 6th girl will compete anything besides bars even in prelims. (Sloan's DTY and possibly floor are the only exceptions I can think of, Worley is of no use on beam, nor is Bieger on floor) Everyone has suddenly gone to town thinking Jana will get the last spot after getting 3rd on bars at trials while Sloan and Worley had disastrous performances on that event on day two of trials. While those lackluster efforts couldn't have come at a much worse time, the selection camp will be the ultimate deciding factor for everyone's fate. Those decisions not only apply for the last spot on the team, but also for the three girls that are decided to be alternates if an injury is to happen to one of our top gymnasts. Below is my final analysis on the potential makeup of the team:</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">Jana Bieger<br /><br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">Pros: Jana is consistent and experienced as all get out. She has yet to fall on bars this year, and generally scores in the 15.5-15.6 range on this event internationally. Though scored harshly at nationals, the judges warmed up to Bieger at trials which points good signs toward her political favor with Martha K. Falls from Bridget Sloan and Shayla Worley at the trials have all of a sudden boosted Jana's Olympic chances considerably.</span> <span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);"><br /><br />Cons: Jana's potential scores are lower than Sloan (who scored 15.95 at day 2 Nats) and Worley (capable in the 15.7 range). Jana was passed over for the world team entirely last year, despite the fact that Bridget Sloan had a lackluster day two and Samantha Peszek a disastrous day one. Shawn Johnson outscoring Bieger in day one of trials also doesn't point any strong signs that the team can't do without her in Beijing.</span> <span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);"><br /><br />Outlook: Jana's bid for the 6th spot is looking strong, but she has by no means sealed the deal yet. I have mentioned before that Johnson competing AA in team finals could prove to be a disastrous decision with all the pressure involved, but Bieger's scores on this event are about even with Johnson's when they both hit, which means Bieger isn't such a huge plus to the team on bars after all. You would think being a former world AA silver medalist would help, but as 2007 proved past reputation will mean next to nothing for Martha K. However, if Jana finishes 3rd on bars at the camp behind Nastia and Chellsie and most importantly ahead of Shawn, Bridget, and Shayla, Martha K. and Co. have no choice but to take her.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(102, 0, 0);">Bridget Sloan<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 0);"><br />Pros: Outscoring Bieger and Johnson at nationals with scores ranging from 15.75-15.95 put Sloan firmly in the mix for the last spot on the team. Bridget has a .1 A-score advantage, in addition to overall better execution than Worley and Bieger (especially), flexed feet on her release moves notwithstanding. Sloan's performed very consistently at the Olympic Test Event in Beijing back in November and is generally a good competitor.</span> <span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 0);"><br /><br />Cons: Sloan's meltdown on day two of the Olympic Trials could prove to be unforgivable in the selection committee's eyes regardless of her performances at the camp. Sloan's decision to compete floor at trials was likely an unwise one; she was shaky there and also on really the only event she is in it to make the squad, bars. Sloan's comparative lack of experience to Bieger and Worley will also hurt her in the grand scheme of things, as will the fact that her highest B-score at the Olympic Test Event in February was an 8.625 for a cleanly hit routine.</span> <span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 0);"><br /><br />Outlook: Sloan has the potential to be a great asset for the U.S. team as a lead-off bar worker, but her regressing from nationals to trials is not a good sign for whether she can hit when needed at the Olympics. Had Sloan repeated her nats bars performances at the trials, I think she would have sewn up that 6th spot already. The committee must realize that Sloan has been very consistent on bars since she became a senior, and day two of trials was hopefully just a "bad night." If Sloan is to hit all of her bars sets at the camp and place 3rd with scores in the 15.8-15.9 range, than I would actually give the last spot to her.</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(51, 102, 102);"><br /><br />Shayla Worley<br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 102);"><br />Pros: Shayla competed in team finals at last year's worlds and finished with a score of 15.5+ even with a shaky dismount landing. Apart from her infamous severely cowboyed inconsistent OMG dismount, Shayla rarely misses a routine on this event. Just finishing her day two trials bar routine after a scary fall on her Hindorff release should also win her some extra brownie points.</span> <span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 102);"><br /><br />Cons: Shayla's back issues are unlikely to get much better by the selection camp, and the USA team doesn't absolutely need her even at peak form with an inconsistent bars dismount and injuries galore coming for the ride.</span> <span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 102);"><br /><br />Outlook: Shayla would be a very likely candidate for the last spot if she were healthy, but even if she has improved by the time the selection camp of hell rolls around her herniated disk issues could flare up at any time. Like I said earlier, Shayla can post a good score for the U.S. on UB, but that score is by no means worth risking an injury and/or fall in team finals over.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">Potential Alternates<br /><br /><br />Ivana Hong</span><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">- Ivana has decent work on all four apparatus, but even her personal best bars score of 15.55 on day two of trials won't cut it for a lead-off UB routine in the Olympics. Her DTY is solid enough, but not as good as Samantha Peszek. Looks to be very good material for an alternate at this point, but I think the real question is whether she will be picked as a traveling alternate or the non-traveling alternate.</span> <span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><br /><br />Mattie Larson</span><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">- Mattie's expressive and innovative choreography on floor exercise has won over gymnastics snobs and USAG judges alike. This will help her bid to be an alternate, but Larson's DTY scores have been almost dead-even (mid to high 14's) with Ivana Hong. Her strength on floor is good, but untested internationally and given the fact that the U.S. is stockpiled through the roof with good FX workers (Johnson, Sac, Chellsie, Sam P., Liukin, even Sloan if her knee gets better) we really don't need her there unless if a major emergency is to arise. However, her good consistency makes it pretty unlikely that she will be left off the team entirely.</span> <span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 51, 153);"><br /><br />Corrie Lothrop</span><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 153);">- No one knows this girl, but she has an Amanar in the works and could stir things up IF her Amanar is consistent and fully-rotated at the camp. Her DTY isn't fabulous, but it's no worse than that of Larson or Hong. However, risking an Amanar in team finals would be a HUGE gamble, especially if Lothrop were to fall and underotate the vault. Her Amanar would really have to be excellent in order for her to be named, as Sam P. really looks to have earned her spot at this point. Lothrop obviously has shown this vault at some point to Martha K. in the training camps, otherwise why else would she be named to the final camp ahead of Brittany Ranzy, whose vault scores were actually a tad higher than those of Sam P.'s (Lothrop's were lower). I find it incredibly hilarious that Simona Amanar is getting more name recognition eight years after her retirement than she did in her entire career for a vault she only did once, and sloppily. (though she probably could've done it a lot better with the new vaulting table)</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 102, 0);">Comparison:</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"> </span><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br />Sloan vs. Worley vs. Bieger (UB)<br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">A-scores</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br />Bieger: 6.6</span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br />Sloan: 6.7</span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br />Worley: 6.7</span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Personal Best Scores (Nationally)</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br />Bieger: 15.7</span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br />Sloan: 15.95</span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br />Worley: 15.7</span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Personal Best Scores (Internationally)</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br />Bieger: 15.575</span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br />Sloan: 14.925</span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br />Worley: 15.575</span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Average Bars Scores (Nats/Trials)</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br />Bieger: 15.5875</span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br />Sloan: 15.45</span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br />Worley: 14.8</span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br />Note: Johnson's average bars scores among Nats/Trials was 15.50625, with only one of her four routines being credited with her maximum 6.4 A-score. Her personal best of 15.7 at Nats/Trials is the same as Bieger's.</span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Consistency/Health</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br />1.) Bieger</span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br />2.) Sloan</span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><br /><br />3.) Worley<br /><br /></span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 0);"> Considering all of this criteria, Bieger is the obvious candidate for the last spot, especially if Martha K. chooses as she has in the past with experience/consistency favoring scoring potential. Worley is far too broken to be named for the last spot in my opinion, even though Martha K. should give Worley every opportunity to prove herself at the camp before making any final decisions. Shayla is far too big of a gamble to choose even if healthy, with an inconsistent dismount awaiting to warrant big deductions that USA cannot afford. Thus it comes to down to Bieger and Sloan, with Bieger being heavily favored at this point. However, against popular opinion I will still hand the last spot over to Bridget. Bieger's score of a 15.7 on day two of trials (which would probably go to about a 15.55 internationally) is pretty much the best she's capable of. That mark of 15.7 matched Shawn Johnson's highest mark among Nats/Trials as well, and the whole point of the 6th girl is that we don't bloody have to use Johnson in team finals on bars. So when it comes down to scores is Jana Bieger really needed? So far I would actually say no.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);"> Let's go to Bridget Sloan. Though not a headcase, she is certainly not a Jana Bieger when it comes to reliability and experience and as Olympic Trials may have proven, competing in the Olympics may be too much, too soon. However, despite low B-scores at the Olympic Test Event, I've noticed much improvement (particularly in her handstands) which should make for a high score for a hit routine. Her main deduction, flexed feet on her releases, would be a maximum .3 deduction and after that there isn't a whole lot more you can take from her routine execution-wise. A 15.95 on day 2 nats was likely a tad inflated and probably close to the best she's capable of on that event, but proving she can outscore what Johnson or Bieger can bring to the table by a couple of tenths makes me think Sloan is still worth sending. Though I have said more times than I can remember that Johnson shouldn't be allowed to compete AA in Olympic Team Finals, she has only missed one routine (her Amanar at SCAM) throughout the entire year and she can certainly be relied upon to hit bars if absolutely needed. With Bieger and Johnson looking to have similar scoring potential, I feel Bridget Sloan is our last option. And if the Olympics are really too much too soon for her, than Johnson can compete UB in TF and getting a similar score to what we would have gotten had we just sent Bieger. Unfortunately, I cannot help but think when speculating over who will get the last spot that this last spot has Courtney Kupets' name written all over it. Experience, reliability, great execution and a potential A-score around 7.0 would have Martha K. and Co. bowing down to her in a second. But sadly there is no Kupets, with the final decision will come at the camp. There, Sloan will need to hit all of her bar routines like she did at Nationals to get that last spot. If that mission is accomplished, I would have to say the same for her lifelong dream of going to the Olympics.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(102, 0, 204);">The Extremely Confusing Race for the Alternates<br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 204);">With five spots looking to be sewn up and the last one coming down to Bieger/Sloan with Worley also having a fighting chance, the decision for the three alternate positions is far less clear. The aformentioned alternate contenders bring to the table the following:</span> <span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 204);"><br /><br />Bieger/Sloan: Much needed 3rd UB girl, potentially FX as well</span> <span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 204);"><br />Hong: Decent on every event</span> <span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 204);"><br />Larson: Good VT/FX</span> <span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 204);"><br />Lothrop: Possible Amanar, but I doubt it will really be a good one</span> <span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 204);"><br />Worley: Possible 3rd UB girl</span> <span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 204);"><br />Davis: UB, though her chances are very slim.<br /><br /></span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Predicted Olympic Line-Up<br /><br /></span>VT<br /><br />Prelims: Johnson, Sacramone, Peszek, Liukin, Memmel<br />Finals: Johnson, Sacramone, Peszek<br /><br />UB<br /><br />Prelims: Liukin, Memmel, Sloan/Bieger, Johnson, Peszek<br />Finals: Liukin, Memmel, Sloan/Bieger<br /><br />BB<br /><br />Prelims: Liukin, Johnson, Memmel, Sacramone, Peszek<br />Finals: Liukin, Johnson, Memmel<br /><br />FX<br /><br />Prelims: Johnson, Sacramone, Memmel, Peszek, Liukin<br />Finals: Johnson, Sacramone, Memmel<br /><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 51, 102);">The basis of the alternate decisions should come down to mostly bars and vault, we are already more than covered on beam and floor if any emergencies are to arise. If Johnson, Sac, or Peszek is to get injured, USA would be most in need of a cover on vault and possibly floor. Larson fits that bill the best, but Hong also has the added strength of bars which is FINALLY materializing (15.55 on day two of trials). If Liukin or Memmel is to get injured, there would be a great need for another UB girl. It is likely that the other end of the Bieger/Sloan equation that doesn't make the team will be one of the two traveling alternates. A major decision that will be taken into account and is still largely unknown is how ready Shayla Worley will be in time for the camp and onward to Beijing. Improvement from hear on in could make her a traveling alternate, or in the best-case scenario the final team member. However, Martha K. and co. might be willing to not take a risk on another bar alternate if Worley is not healthy, especially with Johnson being right there if USA were to absolutely need her bars score in team finals. It so far looks like Bieger will get the last spot, Sloan and Larson the traveling alternates, and Hong the non-traveling alternate. However, a lot can change in a short period of time, and there are still many questions that will finally be answered at the U.S. Olympic Women's Gymnastics Team announcement on July 20th, 2008.</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br /></span><br />Next Post: Who gets the last spot for the Chinese women?<br /><br />That is all.<br /></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><br /></div><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></div><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></div></div><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></div>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-11740928936241416292008-06-21T10:59:00.000-07:002008-06-21T13:20:21.008-07:00U.S. Olympic Trials Analysis-Women Day OneQuick Note: I am going to be dancing at SAB (School of American Ballet in New York) for the next five weeks and I will be quite busy with classes and such. I do intend to continue blogging, but perhaps not as often as before. I do hope to get in at least two detailed posts in a week and I will do a post rounding up the men after day two of their Olympic Trials is concluded.<br /><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">The women just competed at the first night of the U.S. Olympic Trials in Philadelphia, continuing in the second stage of the grueling marathon selection procedure to decide who gets to go to Beijing and who will be left aside. The two spots that are awarded after these Olympic Trials look to be unsurprisingly sewn up by Shawn Johnson and Nastia Liukin. With two other spots looking to go to Chellsie Memmel and Alicia Sacramone, the battle for the final two spots got much clearer after day one. Here's a look at the top competitors and how they performed on night one of the Olympic Trials:</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(102, 0, 204);">Shawn Johnson</span><span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 204);">- My supposed theory that the judges would low ball Shawn a tad bit to ensure a Nastia Liukin win were false; Shawn leads Nastia by a solid .5 after day one with both girls hitting four mostly clean routines (a poor UB dismount from Liukin notwithstanding). Shawn was solid as a rock on Friday, but deductions for incomplete twists could come on her Amanar, whip+triple twist (though improved from Nats), and even her front full+rudi combination. Deductions like these are costly in both the A and B panel scores in international competition. Having the third highest bars score was helped in the fact that she upgraded to a toe-on full on bars (6.4 A), but judges were generous as International Gymnast pointed out with her having 2-3 missed handstands in her bar routine.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">Nastia Liukin</span><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">- Nastia was great on day one with the exception of the dreaded, extremely cowboyed double front 1/2 dismount. A bars dismount which occurs numerous deductions for seperated legs, flexed feet, and low landings makes one wonder that Liukin's decision to change her UB dismount was not a wise one. However, another great floor routine placed Liukin 2nd of the night on that event, and Liukin could end up competing floor in team finals if her newfound consistency on that event continues. Balance beam is continuing to look good and her decision to nix the DTY in favor of one of the best 1.5 Yurchenkos around looks to be working. Her low dismount landing probably cost her .3-.5 (scores all around were inflated, not quite Nats inflated though), which would put her almost dead even with Johnson.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">Alicia Sacramone</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">- Missed connections and other downgrades have lowered Alicia's beam start score at Nats and here, where she only had a 6.5 A-score and her chances of competing beam in team finals or making Olympic beam finals look to be slim. Floor was solid, but is possibly saving her rumored triple twist for the camp and also stepped OOB with both feet BARELY, but it was kind of deserved with her OOB on day two of nationals not taken as a penalty. Alicia stuck her Rudi vault on her last event of the night, and with an Amanar Alicia does have an outside chance at Olympic vault gold.<br /><br /></span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Chellsie Memmel- </span><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Chellsie is continuing to prove she belongs on the team with the second highest mark on uneven bars, USA's weakest event, and a third place ranking on beam and finishing fifth on floor. Though Chellsie is a staggering 1.25 away from Liukin to get an automatic birth to the team, Chellsie looks to be fully ready to be contributing some big scores to USA come August. Chellsie's work on bars and beam is looking good, a discredited jam to handstand aside. However, relatively weaker work on vault (yurchenko 1.5) and floor (OOB, 6.1 A on day one) mean that the selection committee still needs a vault/floor girl on the team, thus improving Samantha Peszek's Olympic chances.<br /><br /></span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 153, 0);">Samantha Peszek</span><span style="color: rgb(153, 153, 0);">- Samantha's Olympic chances improved immensely on day one with strong work on all four apparatus. Placing 3rd on floor at Olympic Trials, even without her 1.5 twist-double pike combination which is unlikely to be reinstated into her routine, proves that at top form she can also be used on floor in team finals if USA needs her. An improved DTY vault (15.1, tied Ranzy for third on that event) and the 4th highest mark on beam do more to improve her Olympic chances, but Peszek will need to be this solid again in night two if she is to really solidify her spot on the team. USA needs a good vault/floor performer and Sam P. looks to fit that bill, having much more experience and seasoning than Mattie Larson. My only question is: where are the upgrades? A double-double dismount off UB, a double Arabian off BB, and an Amanar on vault have not been seen in competition to date, and it would be unwise to risk injury with further upgrading. Martha K.'s tactics of naming several athletes to the Trials that have very little shot of making the team in order to scare Sam P. into working harder look to be working; expect vault specialist Britney Ranzy to be named to the final camp even if she doesn't have the Amanar, which she has yet to show in training or competition and likely isn't training it.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(51, 51, 153);">Bridget Sloan</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 153);">- Bridget's unspectacular showing could've opened the door for Shayla Worley, but Bridget should be thankful that Shayla didn't step in and close it shut. USA needs to know with Johnson, Liukin, Sacramone, Memmel, and Peszek looking to be on the team, USA has all gaps filled besides a 3rd bar worker. Sloan had a couple issues on day one on that event but pulled in a respectable 15.6, which could go to as high as a 15.9 with a clean routine. Judges can hammer Bieger and Worley more so than Sloan on form, and having Shawn compete AA in team finals is a pressure-filled task that has backfired on the U.S. team twice before. I would still say Bridget is the last girl on the team, and despite her case for being an AA athlete USA looks to really only be using her on bars. Sloan's decision to nix her DTY from Trials entirely opened the door for Peszek to grab herself a ticket to Beijing.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 204, 204);">Shayla Worley</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 204, 204);">- Slightly lackluster efforts on bars and beam and failing to beat Bieger or Sloan on bars are looking to do the trick to compete Shayla off the Olympic team, the real question is whether Shayla and hang in there to be an alternate. Shayla (based on the quick hit commentary) seems to be a bit tentative, and with all of the injuries she's had she obviously has reason to be. The question remains whether Shayla has enough time to improve to peak form on bars and thus get the last spot on the team. So far, it doesn't look like it will happen but Worley would be wise to just focus on bars, and maybe beam, onward to the selection camp</span>.<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 102, 0);">Jana Bieger</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);">- Jana was given higher scores here and her bars placed .05 ahead of Bridget and .25 ahead of Shayla. If she continues to have strong bars work on day two and at the camp, Martha K. would be wise to name Jana as an alternate in favor of Shayla. Jana is a consistent competitor who is experienced and would be an ideal substitute if something were to happen to any of our bars girls. Jana has no use contributing on floor, her other strong event, with shaky performances placing behind those of Johnson, Liukin, Sacramone, Larson, Peszek, and Memmel. From now until the selection camp Jana needs to be focused on improving uneven bars and nothing else; what was once proclaimed her weakest event looks to be her last hope for getting a ticket to Beijing.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">Mattie Larson</span><span style="color: rgb(153, 102, 51);">- Sam P.'s strong VT/FX scores from night one look to keep Mattie off the Olympic team, but I would still send her as a traveling alternate because of her good consistency and strong execution on those two events making her an ideal alternate. Mattie has expressed desire to go on to London 2012, and the experience of possibly going to Beijing as an alternate should help prepare her immensely when she goes for making the Olympic team again in 2012.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">Ivana Hong</span><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">- Even though Hong finished a solid 5th AA and had a good meet minus some low landing issues on floor, it would be a blessing for Ivana just to be named as an alternate. Sam P. has consistently outscored Ivana on vault, and has been outscored by Larson consistently on floor as well. Al and Armine have not been wise with what Ivana needs to be able to contribute to the team, and being an AA athlete is not going to do the trick. Though Ivana's consistency has improved, there is no gap she is needed to fill really anywhere. </span><br /><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 0);">There really isn't much of a chance for any of the girls who competed at trials to make the team apart from those that I mentioned above. I expect all of the aformentioned names plus Britney Ranzy to make the final camp, and Randy Stageberg or even Chelsea Davis might be named if they perform well in day two. Let us look at the holes USA is needed to fill assuming Johnson, Liukin, Sacramone, Memmel, and Peszek are on the team. The first three athletes that I mention in the prelims line-up are expected to be used in team finals.</span><br /><br /><br />Prelims (VT): <span style="font-weight: bold;">Sacramone, Johnson, Peszek</span>, Liukin, Memmel (?)<br /><br />Prelims (UB): L<span style="font-weight: bold;">iukin, Memmel, ?</span>, Johnson, Peszek<br /><br />Prelims (BB): <span style="font-weight: bold;">Liukin, Johnson, Memmel</span>, Sacramone, Peszek<br /><br />Prelims (FX): <span style="font-weight: bold;">Johnson, Sacramone</span>, Liukin/Memmel/Peszek (all legitimate uses in team final)<br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 51, 102);">So, if Memmel is to get her DTY back she should compete vault in prelims, but it would still help Bridget Sloan's chances if she competes a good DTY at the selection camp, thus making her a legitimate back-up in team finals on that event. With rivals Shayla Worley and Jana Bieger only competing 1.5 Yurchenkos, Sloan is not hurting her Olympic chances by not competing vault at trials. Using Johnson on bars would be a definite administrative error, which is why the 3rd ranked bar worker based on Nats/Oly Trials/Camp results is likely to get the last spot on the team. A strong showing on bars from Sloan on day two and she will be very hard to unseat for the last spot on the team. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Predicted Team:</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">1. Shawn Johnson</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">2. Nastia Liukin</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">3. Alicia Sacramone</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">4. Chellsie Memmel</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">5. Samantha Peszek</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">6. Bridget Sloan</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Alternates: </span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);">1. Jana Bieger</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);">2. Mattie Larson</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0);">3. Shayla Worley (non-traveling)</span><br /><br /><br />That is all.MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-6249089723212045712008-06-19T07:58:00.000-07:002008-12-09T15:03:31.306-08:00Final Thoughts Prior to the 2008 Olympic Trials<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_BwgTWaPioSEbbGPSIUingoAu8ConpsRdYka1fgaYbDpyaczenYCv7069Dw5KC-KcxISvys1Isp77-mecSy7OhBDjO9HSdBaHS7M7ZkV9BuYvLY9BoVg1Cg4p3Htxj2U2aw_8jXBqd3RJ/s1600-h/OlympicTrialsStoryImage267x400_20080113_070110.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5213651998296239874" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_BwgTWaPioSEbbGPSIUingoAu8ConpsRdYka1fgaYbDpyaczenYCv7069Dw5KC-KcxISvys1Isp77-mecSy7OhBDjO9HSdBaHS7M7ZkV9BuYvLY9BoVg1Cg4p3Htxj2U2aw_8jXBqd3RJ/s400/OlympicTrialsStoryImage267x400_20080113_070110.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;">The 2008 U.S. Olympic Trials begin in Philadelphia tonight for the men and tomorrow for the women. (This post is only about the women, but my next post will be about the men's Olympic Team Selection Outlook) For the women, this is the second in three crucial stages in towards of making it to Beijing. Two spots will be officially sewn up in Philly, but the remaining four spots, plus the three alternates, will have to wait another month from now when everything is said and done at the Karolyi ranch. Though no one can really ever know for sure, it seems likely that these trials' results are considered the most amongst the three competitions that make up the marathon selection procedure. This will be the last time these girls compete in a big arena in front of thousands of fan and on national television. At these trials, look very closely at the results for 3rd-5th place on vault, bars, and floor. With four spots look to be sewn up, the remaining two are anyone's to claim.</span> </div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#993300;">Shawn Johnson</span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#993300;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#993300;">Podium Training Report: Looks excellent, and has apparently improved her Amanar (a couple were stuck!) and her whip + triple twist. Had one fall on a standing full on beam, but otherwise faultless. </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#993300;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#993300;">Outlook: Shawn looks to have done a great job at shaking off the Iowa flood incident, and based on the podium training reports she is the most fit here. Shawn might be the most consistent on the day of the competition, but if Nationals are any indication the judges might be tighter with Shawn's scores to ensure a Nastia win. However, finishing in the top two should happen barring a uncharacteristically poor performance on Shawn's part.</span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#663366;">Nastia Liukin</span></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#663366;"></span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#663366;">Podium Training Report: No DTY's; it is very safe to say that all of Liukin's routines performed at Nationals are exactly the same as the ones she will be doing for the Olympics. Liukin looked strong with every event, however she still had some issues with her double front on floor.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#663366;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#663366;">Outlook: The judges likely want a win for Nastia, so that Shawn won't have to feel the pressure of being America's top gymnast and so that the media will continue to hype up this supposed showdown between power and grace. The message from day two of Nationals was clear; Nastia beat Shawn despite Shawn having a slightly superior day in general. As far as Liukin's gymnastics is concerned, focusing on cleaning up her bars dismount and putting together two clean floor routines should be her top priorities for these Olympic Trials.</span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#006600;">Alicia Sacramone</span></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#006600;"></span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#006600;">Podium Training Report: Looked good, but isn't doing much on vault and floor besides timers. However, she apparently had a couple of shaky beam sets until Martha came over to look at her and she subsequently nailed a rock solid routine. </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#006600;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#006600;">Outlook: Martha K. and Sac herself have alluded to upgrades, and it is widely rumored that she will be replacing her front-full side pass with a triple twist on the diagonal, thus bumping her A-score to a 6.4. If everything goes as planned, Alicia may decide to throw her Amanar vault here, though has so far not trained it in Philly. Alicia successfully completing her upgrades on floor and vault, plus showing clean beam sets out of her capable 7.0 A-score, are what she needs to be focused on at these trials. With floor exercise especially, stamina will be a crucial test with a triple twist inserted in as a middle tumbling run. </span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#000099;">Chellsie Memmel</span></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#000099;"></span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#000099;">Podium Training Report: Chellsie is doing the same bars set and is improving the solidity of her balance beam. Has apparently not upgraded on floor, though there are rumors she will replace her double full pass with a double arabian (6.4 A, not likely to happen until the selection camp). Hasn't shown much on vault.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#000099;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#000099;">Outlook: Chellsie's chances of securing a birth in Philly by finishing in the top two are relatively slim, but she is still a lock for the team. Chellsie looks to be pacing herself well, and it looks like she won't be showing too many upgrades here at trials, though we may see a DTY if it is ready or a front aerial + side aerial connection on beam. Chellsie's primary focus is to peek at the selection camp, which for her physical well-being is definitely an intelligent move. Chellsie's top priorities for the Trials are to clean up her execution a bit and to remain consistent, and finishing in the top 3 on floor would be a great relief to the selection committee, who wouldn't have to worry about putting in someone less reliable like Larson or Peszek in team finals.</span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#ff0000;">Samantha Peszek</span></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#ff0000;">Podium Training Report: Not a whole lot to report on her, but stepped OOB repeatedly on floor and on her opening double-double. Sam P. is looking OK everywhere else, but isn't producing any routines the U.S. can't do without in Beijing.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#ff0000;">Outlook: Martha K.'s political tactics to try to get Sam P. to work harder to maintain her VT/FX specialist spot don't look to be working YET. There's a lot of girls battling for that 3rd place finish on floor including two of the locks (Liukin and Memmel), in addition to Sloan, Bieger, Larson, and obviously Peszek. My money is on Memmel to get 3rd on floor at trials and selection camp, and for Sloan to unveil her apparently fabulous DTY that we still haven't seen. If both scenarios are to come true, Peszek isn't needed at all (Gasp), unless of course she is to be used in case of an injury. Sam P.'s #1 priority for these trials is to bloody well prove the U.S. can't do without her in Beijing, which means: Do good routines on the events your needed on! </span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#666600;">Bridget Sloan</span></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#666600;"></span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#666600;">Podium Training Report: Surprisingly has not done much in the podium training reports, but has shown good bars sets with not-so-good foot form (still flexing her feet on her tkatchevs).</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#666600;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#666600;">Outlook: Bridget's results here, particularly on FX and VT, should have a large say as to whether Sam P. will make the team or not. Everyone has been talking about the supposed bars showdown between Shayla and Bridget, but at this point Sloan's bars scores from Boston would be very formidable for Worley to reach even at top form. Bridget is solid, but not stunning, on floor when healthy. However, her DTY is the big mystery of all. Her DTY has been widely rumored to be a very good one, and with Sam P.'s looking to be regressing on that event Bridget could find herself not only making the team, but vaulting in team finals if deemed necessary. Everyone is looking for good bars from Bridget this weekend, but her vault and floor could also decide a lot in terms of the makeup of the team and the alternates. Bridget is a very intelligent and calm competitor, and at this point I think her Olympic chances are better than Shayla and Sam P.</span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Shayla Worley</span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Podium Training Report: Shayla is actually looking pretty good on bars and beam, and rumors of withdrawal appear to be untrue. However, floor and vault are another story and appears to be only competing bars and beam this weekend and presumably onward to her quest for making the Olympic team. (sigh-I liked her Jesse Cook FX routine at the '08 American Cup, the girl has taste when it comes to good FX music in my opinion)</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Outlook: Shayla needs to finish 3rd on bars, preferably on both days over Bridget if she has any hope of actually competing in Beijing. With floor and vault looking to be out of the question, bars is her money event to make the squad. Shayla could use beam as a possible back-up to contribute on if needed, though we already have Nastia, Shawn, and A-Sac/Chellsie capable of high 15's (at the very least) on this event, and with those four there is already one girl left to fill in if injury is to occur in team finals. Shayla needs to finish in the top three on bars at both trials and at the ranch to secure spot on the team, though Shayla should at least be looking at an alternate position at this point with USA's need for good bar workers. </span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#ff6600;">Mattie Larson</span></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#ff6600;"></span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#ff6600;">Podium Training Reports: Looking good all-around, even on bars which is not an especially strong event for her.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#ff6600;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#ff6600;">Outlook: Though Larson looks to be a relative longshot at this point, don't count her out just yet. Larson is inexperienced but in the competitions she has competed in she has looked to be a stable competitor and outscored Jana, Sam P., and Chellsie at Nationals on floor. I'd say if she does that again, she is a lock to be an alternate at the very least. While I don't see Larson on the team, an alternate position could happen for this gymnast who's polished style would be appreciated by the international judges if it were to be needed.</span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#339999;">Jana Bieger</span></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#339999;"></span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#339999;">Podium Training Report: Looking OK, but is showing low landings on floor and beam especially. Only showing a yurchenko 1.5 on vault, and nothing really different from her on any event since Nationals.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#339999;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#339999;">Outlook: Jana could be in danger of even claiming an alternate position with one of the Shayla/Bridget equation likely to be an alternate, in addition to a Sam P./Mattie/Ranzy(?) likely to be an alternate as well. With Shayla and Bridget looking good on bars, there is little need for another back-up bar worker. Same with floor, though in that case USA would actually have even more options if something is to go wrong, and with Larson outscoring Bieger sizably at Nationals on FX, I would say Jana could end up being the third, non-traveling alternate. Jana is going to have to prove herself immensely on bars and floor at trials and at the ranch if she wants to be even one of the two immediate alternates going to Beijing, let alone competing there.</span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#996633;">Ivana Hong</span></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#996633;"></span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#996633;">Podium Training Report: Ivana is definitely the most hard-working athlete of anyone, and has shown nice DTY's and good beam routines and stuck bars dismounts. However, problems with her double front on floor and missed handstands on bars remain. </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#996633;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#996633;">Outlook: Ivana's DTY will only be needed if it is gorgeous on both days of competition at trials and at the ranch. With Sam P., Ranzy, Sloan, or even Memmel looking to contribute on that event during team finals, Hong will need to really set herself apart on that one event to make the team. Like Sam P., Ivana (I perhaps should blame her coaches actually) has not been intelligent with specifically what she can contribute to the team. Investing upgrades on one or two events would make her much more of a threat to make the team, but so far we have three events (UB, BB, and FX) that the U.S. can use her in an absolute emergency and one event (VT) which we can use in team finals but isn't necessarily something we don't already have. Ivana could still be an alternate if she proves herself on vault especially to be a necessity, but her chances of competing in Beijing are slim to none.</span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#6666cc;">Brittany Ranzy</span></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#6666cc;"></span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6666cc;">Podium Training Reports: Looking good, but no signs of an Amanar YET.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6666cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6666cc;">Outlook: Outscoring Sam P. and Ivana on vault at Nats should at least turn some heads. Despite the fact that Martha K. is unlikely to risk taking such an inexperienced competitor, she really doesn't have much to lose by sending her, unless if Sam P. suddenly becomes fabulous on vault and floor and the U.S. can't do without her there. If one of the locks or even Bridget Sloan can be trusted with the third spot on floor, then we're covered everywhere BUT the lead-off spot on vault. With Sam P., Ivana, and Mattie scoring lower than Ranzy's DTYs at Nationals, an Amanar vault could be possible for her and Martha K. could feel it is the last needed piece of the puzzle to be filled. However, a fall and an underotation on an Amanar vault in team finals would be the other end of risking taking such an inexperienced girl to compete in the Olympics. However, I still don't see Ranzy making the team, but it would be the stunning upset of the quad if she were to make the team. </span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div>Not much to report on Darling Hill, Randi Stageberg, Mackenzie Caquatto, Corrie Lothrop, Chelsea Davis, Olivia Courtney, or Alaina Johnson. However, Trani apparently looked distraught, as did the Mrs., though she did show some decent DTY's. </div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div>That is all.</div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-31843530310392755582008-06-15T08:48:00.000-07:002008-12-09T15:03:31.625-08:00All Quiet on the Gymnastics Front (NOT)<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyXMuihyphenhyphen47AjLg0yzajnv5uPU9dsg31dxp9cudUVH5iKfKpd3ENRPDlG23ffq7GSthV_it1gEmHLGtU7WoRasCb19fk8fmkkXTr9tITO3ZDLLm0NQoOfLHUhs7wvEmM2Pg_WC7ym0RJJSB/s1600-h/a7eb259e40d2c34463a920fc2b7b38a7.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5212246022146510562" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyXMuihyphenhyphen47AjLg0yzajnv5uPU9dsg31dxp9cudUVH5iKfKpd3ENRPDlG23ffq7GSthV_it1gEmHLGtU7WoRasCb19fk8fmkkXTr9tITO3ZDLLm0NQoOfLHUhs7wvEmM2Pg_WC7ym0RJJSB/s400/a7eb259e40d2c34463a920fc2b7b38a7.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG6p90QVwlmIBmUHeGfgi9oqu1-XD1u6nRbk7SqkY721w5h6roZkkiQrM32BqGpz9_0pyzSA2ppvjUQGPrOBq0nhLmS053cDctUde8W6ZA01Wp0u3aAi_K3-lMC76ETLG7QBnfl5_qnruP/s1600-h/pic082.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5212246027357010818" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG6p90QVwlmIBmUHeGfgi9oqu1-XD1u6nRbk7SqkY721w5h6roZkkiQrM32BqGpz9_0pyzSA2ppvjUQGPrOBq0nhLmS053cDctUde8W6ZA01Wp0u3aAi_K3-lMC76ETLG7QBnfl5_qnruP/s400/pic082.jpg" border="0" /></a> <strong><em>Above: Happy Father's Day! Andy Memmel and Valeri Liukin with their respective daughters.</em></strong><br /><br /><br /><span style="color:#666600;">Prior to the start of the all important U.S. Olympic Trials next week, there have been several Olympic trials or pre-Olympic dual meets going on around the world. Four Chinese gymnasts have participated at the French Olympic Trials in what will likely be their last international meet prior to Beijing, and there has also been the Brazilian Nationals and a dual meet between Romania and Great Britain. Oh and Shawn Johnson's gym got flooded=AAAAAAAAAAAAH!</span><br /><br />Without further ado:<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="color:#6600cc;">French Nationals That Are Really All About the Chinese</span></strong><br /><br /><br /><ul><br /><br /><li><span style="color:#6600cc;">Yang Yilin had a strong showing, and is more and more beginning to showcase her strengths as a legitimate contender for Olympic AA gold. Posted marks of 15.125 (VT), 16.65 (UB), 15.75 (BB), and 15.175 (FX). In event finals she won gold on UB (16.825), tied for third on BB (15.325), but had a fall on FX (13.75). Yang has the potential to sneak into the AA medal ranks, but winning will be a tall order. Yang's consistency is something to be admired, though stamina required for a two-day competition probably impeded her event final FX and BB efforts. The more I think about it, the Chinese could use Yang on BB in team finals. She can hit, maybe with not a super high mark, but with a respectable mark that the Chinese can count on for consistency. </span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#6600cc;">Jiang Yuyuan had a lackluster vault score (14.575), which possibly could have been due to a shaky Amanar that was downgraded to a DTY, though there is no video yet. Has a 7.3 A-score on UB, but handstand deductions for late pirouetting are likely coming into play with scores of 15.8 (8.5 B) and 15.65 (7.2 A, 8.45 B) on that event. Won the floor exercise title but had a low mark on beam in AA finals (15.025). Jiang has the goods to win Olympic AA, but deductions like missed handstands, wobbles on beam, and occasional OOB's on floor will make the difference. </span></li><br /><br /><li><span style="color:#6600cc;">Cheng Fei did not do her Amanar in either AA or event finals, but did do her Cheng (apparently successfully) in event finals, vault being the only event final she competed in. Scored a solid but unspectacular 15.55 in AA finals and landed on her head on her double-double on floor, scoring only a 14.275. Not quite the meet she was looking for, but she a very experienced veteran who was probably just treating this as a warm-up meet. It is beginning to look like she will be doing her Cheng vault in Olympic team finals, instead of the Amanar vault which she has done unsuccessfully in world team finals for the last two years. </span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#6600cc;">After this meet I seriously cannot see how the Chinese are going to even think of letting Sui Lu step foot into Beijing come August. Landed OOB on floor in AA finals (14.7) and had multiple falls off the balance beam as well (13.725). A score in the 13's would open a huge door for the USA in team finals, though Sui did mark a reasonable 15.35 in event finals. Sui Lu has all the potential to be the missing piece of the puzzle that China has been looking for, I thought after seeing the Chinese Nationals that Sui was a sure lock for the team. But as I said in my Chinese Olympic Team Outlook post back in early May, Sui Lu would be a huge gamble to risk competing in the Olympic Games, and I think the Chinese by now have realized that the risk of sending Sui will outshine the reward.</span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#6600cc;">Don't confirm this, but I heard that the French Olympic Team is: Pauline Morel, Marine Petit, Laetitia Dugain, Cassy Vericel, Marine Debauve, and Kathleen Lindor. Severino's Achilles injury from Europeans in April has disallowed this great gymnast from going to a third Olympics. Marine Debauve, who placed 7th AA at the '04 Olympics, has made a successful comeback to go to her 2nd Olympic Games. Cassy Vericel showed a 6.4 A-score on floor in the event finals of these championships, which apparently included a Dos Santos (piked double Arabian).</span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#6600cc;">Beth Tweddle was scheduled to compete but withdrew to a foot injury. No word yet on how serious it is.</span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#6600cc;">These scores were definitely stingy (comparative to USA and China Nats)</span><span style="color:#6600cc;">, and probably more or less around what you will see in Beijing</span>.</li></ul><br /><p></p><br /><p><strong><span style="color:#000099;">Brazilian Nationals</span></strong></p><br /><ul><br /><li><span style="color:#000099;">Penguin 888 reports that Ana Claudia Silva is the new AA champ of Brazil, not Jade Barbosa <strong>(shock horror) </strong>Jade had falls on her Amanar (which scored a 14.5 and probably wasn't credited with full rotation, it was a truly splatted vault if there ever was one) and a fall on her acro series on beam, which also gave her trouble at the recent Moscow World Cup. </span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#000099;">Khiuani Dias withdrew from the competition entirely, and Daiane dos Santos still has a ways to go on floor exercise (14.667 in prelims). </span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#000099;">Despite Jade's AA trouble, she did manage wins on vault, bars and floor. No word yet on who won beam, but I suspect that top qualifier Daniele Hypolito (15.7 in prelims, rumors of a 7.0 A-score here) won that event.</span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#000099;">In prelims, Lais Souza was unspectacular, only finishing in the top three on balance beam with a 14.733 there.</span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#000099;">Jade has looked very skaky this year, although her floor exercise consistency looks to be greatly improving. She did her first Amanar vault of 2008 and it wasn't even close, and the ff+ff+2-foot layout acro series on beam has been giving Barbosa all sorts of trouble. Losing to little known all arounder Ana Claudia Silva will no doubt have a negative affect on Jade's confidence. However, last year Jade looked like an unremarkable gymnast until the Worlds where she easily was in the best condition of her life and was challenging for the World AA title. If she can repeat that concept of peaking at the right time for Beijing, than the top AA girls better watch out. Sadly though, I don't see it happening. Her consistency isn't improving, and if anything it is regressing to the point where hitting 4 for 4 routines in a major championship seems to be very unlikely.</span></li></ul><br /><p></p><br /><p><strong><span style="color:#006600;">GBR vs. ROM Dual Meet</span></strong></p><br /><ul><br /><li><span style="color:#006600;">Romania won here (duh), with Steliana Nistor winning the AA. Steliana apparently only did a yurchenko 1.5 (14.6), but was excellent on bars and beam and finished with an AA score of 61.0. Likely fell on floor in the AA (14.2), but adding eight tenths to 61 would make Steliana a very legitimate AA contender, though these scores look to be inflated. Nistor followed up her AA win with a UB win and silvers on BB and FX. Overall, Nistor looks to be close to top shape less than two months prior to the start of the Games.</span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#006600;">Rebecca Downie is coming into her own for the British team and placed a strong 2nd AA with scores ranging from 14.55 (floor) to 15.8 (bars). Won vault in event finals and also placed 2nd on uneven bars. The emergence of this youngster will hopefully help Great Britain to make Olympic team finals.</span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#006600;">Sandra Izbasa is still having problems with the dreaded bars (13.55-sat down dismount) which will very likely take her out of the Olympic AA medal hunt in Beijing, unfortunately. Strong work on beam and floor, and a DTY on vault (relatively skaky though) kept Izbasa in the AA medals with a bronze at this meet, and would end up defeating Nistor for gold on both of those events in event finals. Without Ponor competing, Izbasa could make Olympic BB finals as well as challenging for FX gold, now that she won't have to worry about the 2-per country rule.</span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#000099;"><span style="color:#006600;">Imogen Cairns improved her Olympic chances by defeating compatriot Marissa King for silver on vault. King, a vault specialist, tied for 5th AA but appeared to be lackluster throughout the competition on her key event to make the British Olympic team.</span> </span></li></ul><br /><p><span style="color:#000099;"></span></p><br /><p><strong><span style="color:#336666;">Thoughts and Rumors on Shawn Johnson's Flooding Situation</span></strong></p><br /><p><span style="color:#336666;">If you haven't already heard, there have been floods around much of Iowa and in the process the floods decided to go and invade Shawn Johnson's gym, which ended up being a very unusual roadblock for Shawn's training for the Olympics. There have been rumors that Martha K. is going to let Shawn train at the ranch after the trials until, presumably, when the U.S. team leaves for Beijing. Shawn went to Iowa State to train immediately following the flood, and should be leaving for the trials on Monday. There have been reports suggesting that Johnson left West Des Moines with almost the assumption that she won't be returning until possibly after the Olympics are over. Barring something very unlikely Shawn will get one of the two guaranteed births to the Olympic team in Philly next week. Training at the camp would be an ideal situation for Shawn, as the camp now has Jansen-Fritsen equipment, the same equipment being used in Philly, Beijing, and at Shawn's gym. However, if Shawn feels that Martha K. would not be a positive influence to her training (though Chow and Li will probably both go down with her and still coach her as normal), than Shawn should likely move in with another top gymnast. In this scenario, Chellsie Memmel would come to mind. Shawn and Chellsie's personalities are fairly similar, and having training partners would allow both gymnasts to push each other even more to come to the Olympics in peak condition.</span> </p><p><strong>EDIT: Shawn will be going back to Chow's after the Olympic Trials.</strong></p><br /><p>That is all.</p><br /><p><br /></p><strong></strong>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-23592424073371693022008-06-12T10:57:00.000-07:002008-12-09T15:03:31.837-08:00Bubble Girls Analysis<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKauY0nHyrsIWscvM5fHaWUqkWikefghsG0Bccfk0Hu9gVwf6fkj0eBqLkY17zFfoQve8wOHsne4iM_VQI_17xcnjlaUplsKbIuLcz1-NFJXNKb9o86-TdZe9646Pft50DIm-7GiRgK4qH/s1600-h/bubble.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5211176258950015666" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKauY0nHyrsIWscvM5fHaWUqkWikefghsG0Bccfk0Hu9gVwf6fkj0eBqLkY17zFfoQve8wOHsne4iM_VQI_17xcnjlaUplsKbIuLcz1-NFJXNKb9o86-TdZe9646Pft50DIm-7GiRgK4qH/s400/bubble.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div>I have previously done my analysis posts on the team outlooks of both China and USA, and I will do a final analysis on the bubble girls of China and USA and how they could impact the outcome of the team result in the upcoming Olympics. On both teams there appear to be four locks, with two gymnasts to decide from among many prospective Olympic hopefuls in both China and the USA. Let's take a look at what holes these two teams have, what the bubble girls can and cannot contribute to the team, and how they concern things like start values and consistency. </div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#3333ff;">USA</span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Locks: Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, Chellsie Memmel, Alicia Sacramone</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#3333ff;">Team Final Line-Up</span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Vault: Sacramone, Johnson, ?</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Uneven Bars: Liukin, Memmel, ?</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Balance Beam: Johnson, Liukin, Sacramone/Memmel</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Floor Exercise: Johnson, Sacramone, ? (possibly Memmel or even Liukin)</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>Bubble Girls:</strong></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Samantha Peszek-VT, FX</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Bridget Sloan-UB, possibly FX and VT if knee is fully recovered</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Shayla Worley-UB, BB if USA absolutely needs her</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Jana Bieger-UB/FX</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Ivana Hong-VT/BB/UB if USA absolutely needs her</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Mattie Larson-VT/FX if upgrades come on floor</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Britney Ranzy- VT (if Amanar shows up at trials)</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">At this point, I don't expect anyone outside of this list to even have a chance at being an alternate. The UB postition looks to be a battle between two gymnasts, Bridget Sloan and Shayla Worley. Sloan looks to have the edge at this point because of her strong showing at Nationals (3rd place), though various reports have said that Shayla is up and running on bars and her Nats withdrawal was merely a precaution for her health. However, I would still pick Sloan because of her consistency, good execution and the fact that she also competed in the Beijing arena during the Olympic Test Event in November 2007 and performed very consistently. Reliability is something that Martha K. certainly should be looking for when selecting the team, after all Terin Humphrey was picked in '04 largely because of her cool head under pressure. The last spot is where everyone else (besides Sloan/Worley) is gunning for, and will be the most difficult to decide of all. Let's take a look:</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#3333ff;">Samantha Peszek</span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Pros: Good political favor, has a pretty solid DTY and a 6.4 A-score on floor, in addition to great improvement on UB and BB.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Cons: Showing inconsistency with her two necessary events to make the squad on, and form and artistry that is something to be desired on every event.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Outlook: If Peszek solely focused her efforts on either having an Amanar or an excellent floor routine, I would say she would be a shoo-in for the team. However, Sam has not been intelligent with what she needs to focus on to make the Olympic team. It also kind of shocks me that Martha K. didn't stop her from upgrading on bars and beam in hopes of being an AA gymnast, but rather stressing to Sam that the team would need her most on the two events she is strong at. Martha's mystifying choices to send many girls to Olympic Trials with little or no little chance to go are likely to be in direct response to Sam P.'s up-and-down performance at Nats on floor exercise especially. I would say Sam still has a spot on the team, but she better watch out if Britney Ranzy shows up to Philly with an Amanar.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#3333ff;">Mattie Larson</span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Pros: Good, consistent work on floor and vault, not to mention great execution and artistry on floor that the international judges should appreciate.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Cons: Little international experience, low-balled on vault at nationals, lower start value on floor than some of the other floor specialists (6.1 A).</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Outlook: Larson looks to be the top rival of Sam P. for the last spot on the team, but I frankly don't see it happening. Her DTY is good, but not something the U.S. can't do without, especially considering the fact that it is untested on a major international stage. With Memmel looking to be the 3rd floor worker on the team, I don't think Larson has much to contribute there unless if her rumored upgrades materialize and are done successfully at the trials. Peszek still looks to be better than Larson on vault, ragged form and all, but Mattie may just hear her name called as an alternate.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#3333ff;">Jana Bieger</span></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Pros: Jana has a 6.4 A-score on floor and placed 4th at Nats on uneven bars. Experience and consistency are two of Jana's biggest assets.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Cons: Jana was not scored favorably at this year's Nationals and doesn't look to have scores that the team can't do without. Several form issues on bars and floor degrade her B-score right off the bat, and Jana was shaky on floor on both days of competition, which is her #1 event in terms of importance to make the team.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Outlook: Jana looks to be an alternate unless if injuries are to take several key gymnasts out of the picture entirely. Good strength on bars and floor, plus good consistency, make Jana a good plug-in gymnast if a key performer is to go down. However, Jana's tremendous form deductions leave no room for error, and that is something the U.S. will look to not risk in Beijing.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#3333ff;">Ivana Hong</span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Pros: Hong's good form and experience of competing at last year's worlds are assets to make the squad. Her lack of a glaringly weak event makes her a capable plug-in gymnast on any piece of apparatus.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Cons: Finishing 9th on vault at Nats does not help Ivana's Olympic chances out in the least. Ivana is far too much of a loose cannon to be fired out onto the floor during USA's battle with China, and lack of an individual strength makes her not a necessary commodity for the team.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Outlook: Ivana can still wind up as an alternate if she performs well on vault at trials, but she appears to have a slim chance of even doing that. USA will likely take Jana over Ivana because of Jana's consistency and added strength on floor, Sloan/Worley because of their strength on bars, and if a third alternate is to be picked than Mattie Larson looks to get that position with good VT/FX work. Ivana simply doesn't give the U.S. anything that they don't already have.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#3333ff;">Britney Ranzy</span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Pros: Britney had the 3rd highest vault score at Nats and is said to be planning an Amanar at trials.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Cons: Britney is untested internationally and up until this Amanar rumor no one even thought of her having as much as a remote possibility to go to Beijing. Without an Amanar, there is unlikely to be any use of Ranzy even as an alternate.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Outlook: Ranzy's Amanar could picture an entirely different team outlook than the selection committee had planned on overseeing. If it is clean and consistent at trials and at selection camp, than the USA could actually pick her as the other three events would look to be covered by the other five girls. However, the likelihood of viewers seeing Ranzy's Amanar, let alone her landing it, is lofty at best. Ranzy, with the exception of injury, has nothing to lose to try the vault if she is indeed training it.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">As I see it, Peszek still looks to have the 6th spot provided that Ranzy doesn't come to trials with a landed Amanar, or if Larson gets 3rd on floor exercise, like she did at Nats. If Memmel or even Liukin takes 3rd on floor at trials, than USA already has that position filled and all we need then would be a vault specialist. Ranzy could very well get it IF her Amanar is consistent, but Peszek looks to get that spot because she is a potential plug-in girl on any other event if the USA needs her there.</span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"><strong>China</strong></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Locks: Cheng Fei, He Kexin, Yang Yilin, Jiang Yuyuan</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"><strong>Team Final Line-Up</strong></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Vault: Fei, Yuyuan, Kexin/Yilin</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Uneven Bars: Kexin, Yilin, Yuyuan </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Balance Beam: Fei, ?, ?</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Floor Exercise: Fei, Yuyuan, ? (possibly Yilin)</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"><strong>Bubble Girls:</strong> </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Deng Linlin-BB, VT and FX if China needs her</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Sui Lu-BB, FX</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Zhang Nan-BB</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Pang PanPan- UB</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Xiao Sha-BB</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Li Shanshan-BB</span></div><br /><br /><span style="color:#cc0000;">China is most in need of two beam specialists, possibly another floor spot if they don't think Yang Yilin is "good enough", and a backup bars worker in case something disastrous happens to any of the three bars workers mentioned above.<br /></span><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#cc0000;">Deng Linlin</span></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Pros: Winning beam and floor gold ahead of Sui Lu at the recent Moscow World Cup helps out Deng's Olympic bid. Linlin is generally a consistent competitor who gets solid scores on the events China needs her on.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Cons: Linlin is really more alternate material to the team. The only event they need her on is balance beam, and even there she suffered a fall during the prelims of the Chinese Nationals, thus failing to make event finals. </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Outlook: Linlin's strengths on vault and floor really aren't needed, but her balance beam could be. Deng is overall more consistent than beam specialists Xiao Sha and Li Shanshan, but the Chinese may still not use her because of her lower scoring potential. I would predict Deng to be an alternate at this point because of her general consistency and ability to fill a hole while not being an event specialist, which is what the Chinese appear to really be looking for.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#cc0000;">Sui Lu</span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Pros: Sui has the capability of scoring very high on beam and floor, two routines that China would certainly like to use in its quest to beat the United States. Winning Chinese Nationals on those two events and also being scored extremely favorably should mean that Sui is being pushed by the coaches to go to Beijing.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Cons: Sui's meltdown in prelims of the Moscow Russian Cup, her first major international meet, does not bode well for her Olympic chances. In addition to that, the judges were strict in marking Sui in the beam finals for a couple of missed connections and ended up missing the gold on that event by about .4 to Linlin. Sui's inexperience is a huge gamble for China to risk going to Beijing, with the results being either stunning or disastrous.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Outlook: The Chinese can still send Sui Lu with Xiao Sha suffering from falls at both the Chinese Nationals and Tianjin World Cup. Sui should outscore with Yang Yilin with a hit routine, but the Chinese can count on Yang to hit whereas Sui is much more questionable. Still, with the inconsistency coming from Shanshan and Sha on beam, I think they will still risk sending Sui and her high A-scores to the Games because the Chinese are the types that will go all out to win, they are simply not going to go clean and conservative at home. </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#cc0000;">Zhang Nan</span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Pros: Zhang Nan has been a rock for the Chinese team on balance beam, posting their top score on that event at the 2006 Worlds when China won its first world title. Zhang is much more experienced than Shanshan, Sha, and Sui combind and the Chinese would look to trust her more than anyone to hit in a team final.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Cons: Zhang Nan has a .5 lower start value on beam than Shanshan, and has performed poorly since the 2006 Worlds. Zhang Nan is only a one-event athlete, and has not been selected to compete in any world cup meets this past year. </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Outlook: Zhang Nan showed improvement at the Chinese Nationals, winning the bronze on the beam. However, the fact that Zhang Nan was not sent to a world cup meet at all this year basically means that the Chinese aren't interested. Too bad, because Zhang Nan is the consistent, experienced gymnast making a comeback who I would bet to HIT in team finals when I really can't the same for Li Shanshan, Sui Lu, and Xiao Sha. </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#cc0000;">Pang PanPan</span></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Pros: With Cheng Fei and the possibility of Li Shanshan, Xiao Sha, Sui Lu, or even Zhang Nan means that China will have no backup on bars in team finals if something catastrophic is to happen to Kexin, Yilin, or Yuyuan. Triple P got bronze at Chinese Nats ahead of Jiang, just prompting that the Chinese might go as far as to trust her with competing UB in team finals. Triple P is also experienced and well-favored internationally amongst the judges.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Cons: Triple P does not contribute much besides bars, and China is much more likely to resort putting two beam specialists on the final two spots for the team when China already has an arsenal of three great bars workers. Triple P also wasn't at the top of her game at the Moscow World Cup, which was important for Triple P because it was the only World Cup meet she had the opportunity to compete this year. </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Outlook: Triple P looks to be a relatively unlikely candidate for the team, but keeping her on as an alternate is imperative if one of China's top three bars workers is unable to compete. However, Triple P has really very little contribution on the balance beam, as she failed to make event finals at the Chinese Nationals on that event.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#cc0000;">Xiao Sha</span></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Pros: Xiao is a textbook beam worker and hit in the team finals of last year's world championships after falling twice in the prelims. Sha is capable of scoring 16+ easily on that event and is a legitimate backup on any event if China were to absolutely need her.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Cons: Xiao is very inconsistent and suffered falls at the event finals of the recent Chinese Nationals and the Tianjin World Cup. Sha's A-score is only .2 ahead of Zhang Nan, and that is probably not worth the risk when .8 is on the line with a fall.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Outlook: Xiao's beam is too inconsistent for the Chinese to seriously consider sending her to Beijing, and her scores on the other three events aren't necessary unless if China were to suffer multiple injuries prior to the Games. Since Xiao's A-score is .3 lower than that of Li Shanshan, who are basically the two beam specialists battling it out for one spot that all of a sudden looks to be going to Shanshan.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#cc0000;">Li Shanshan</span></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Pros: Li Shanshan won the silver medal on balance beam at last year's worlds with a fall and recently won the Barcelona World Cup on balance beam and took out her split-leg full turn for an easier 90 degree leg-up full turn which actually has the same value as the aforementioned skill. Li Shanshan's start value of 7.3 is the highest being done on balance beam in the world.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Cons: Inconsistency, including falls at Chinese Nationals and the Cottbus Cup. Shanshan contributes little besides beam, and gave a golden opportunity to the USA women when she fell out of bounds at last year's worlds in the team final. </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Outlook: Hit beam routines in prelims and finals at the recent Barcelona World Cup look to seal the deal for Shanshan's Olympic bid. China will look to use a great team final score for her balance beam, and it should be at least mid-15 even with a fall. My only question is: Why didn't Shanshan take out the godforsaken split-leg full turn which cost her not one, but two major beam titles (Chinese Nats/Worlds) when the comparatively easier 90 degree leg-up full turn is worth the same?</span> </div><br /><div></div><br /><div>So, this was just a quick little analysis on the bubble girls and what they contribute to China and USA prior to the final Olympic trials of both nations. If I were to pick today, I would say Samantha Peszek and Bridget Sloan are the bubble girls whose bubbles will not burst, and as for China I would say the same for Sui Lu and Li Shanshan.</div><br /><div></div><br /><div>That is all.</div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-33750664858056034682008-06-10T10:04:00.000-07:002008-12-09T15:03:32.521-08:00Olympic UB Final Outlook<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4cIVRHv9zzs7gA9clQNhgW92U5Yqs6NFgQDI2BADHJRL3jaymlq6GpoBc7H1YdLkiffezcRNkIPHhduzGztJg-qswpcS5xumf8ZVGZ_m2xn2G4hWtYEh172Hk2YN3RBBW03zTr48QQGmH/s1600-h/103-liukin%20bars%20visa%20lloyd%20web.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5210370210493884130" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4cIVRHv9zzs7gA9clQNhgW92U5Yqs6NFgQDI2BADHJRL3jaymlq6GpoBc7H1YdLkiffezcRNkIPHhduzGztJg-qswpcS5xumf8ZVGZ_m2xn2G4hWtYEh172Hk2YN3RBBW03zTr48QQGmH/s400/103-liukin%2520bars%2520visa%2520lloyd%2520web.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0-a6ZqfWlhbPAB80J9WeMNrSHcekjfbkH53unebgnzhWva689P4_YUF0sHp4X-0dGEK6DSjOAVmt7itDLmkbt3bLVPqhdYrxHdRQh2SeAjl7NplwXb-1qU9vyQmGAyMT-tNXu0hUHrf_J/s1600-h/76591597.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5210370212558258098" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0-a6ZqfWlhbPAB80J9WeMNrSHcekjfbkH53unebgnzhWva689P4_YUF0sHp4X-0dGEK6DSjOAVmt7itDLmkbt3bLVPqhdYrxHdRQh2SeAjl7NplwXb-1qU9vyQmGAyMT-tNXu0hUHrf_J/s400/76591597.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNTCIdFtSHA6uD025ieZoZPqcoB94g6SwQXXK70HQjqeMDAb4yM3ZBE-gDOs619POOAgg6OiF-B54Odpfq7xtPocMOynlJj6qGbqDbh9eV9umwp_hPlYghRYaXsqE0zRT58gWJD-ZWmTel/s1600-h/Tweddle2Aarhus600_Kopie.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5210370220097162162" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNTCIdFtSHA6uD025ieZoZPqcoB94g6SwQXXK70HQjqeMDAb4yM3ZBE-gDOs619POOAgg6OiF-B54Odpfq7xtPocMOynlJj6qGbqDbh9eV9umwp_hPlYghRYaXsqE0zRT58gWJD-ZWmTel/s400/Tweddle2Aarhus600_Kopie.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqxtav9duiMJovgo7iyDfLlZBbXjkMmMbjtGxkHpMQpF4LlFjunC2ESvBuanvJoGbJGMY-L1NKXgPyCuGkXzpWNgt32kwJN8zMPvhfdaZkuhr_9_Xecx2BukdCl9fOfi4KUd2QYUf6ADCs/s1600-h/1368479997_33526acb35.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5210370224651872242" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqxtav9duiMJovgo7iyDfLlZBbXjkMmMbjtGxkHpMQpF4LlFjunC2ESvBuanvJoGbJGMY-L1NKXgPyCuGkXzpWNgt32kwJN8zMPvhfdaZkuhr_9_Xecx2BukdCl9fOfi4KUd2QYUf6ADCs/s400/1368479997_33526acb35.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6eNy4KVk4z8wmSS8q0cj4NaT0pX1PYCxTYyQb_t0FIspxMNwEyFhBstaz0vsdY7DC-j3Oo5knaheWfvVaycvWIWIYGm5AAbTfBqE8RD6HUNe_T6eYfFYds91nsoEgRTnY1rzdXFMqV-Q_/s1600-h/he_kexin.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5210370236065252866" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6eNy4KVk4z8wmSS8q0cj4NaT0pX1PYCxTYyQb_t0FIspxMNwEyFhBstaz0vsdY7DC-j3Oo5knaheWfvVaycvWIWIYGm5AAbTfBqE8RD6HUNe_T6eYfFYds91nsoEgRTnY1rzdXFMqV-Q_/s400/he_kexin.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><span style="color:#666600;">The apparatus final to watch at these summer Olympics in Beijing, China, is the women's uneven bars final. All of the medal contenders on this apparatus have been upgrading their uneven bar routines over the past year like crazy to provide you with a thrilling showdown between several different styles of bar work. Bars queen Svetlana Khorkina of Russia may have retired, but that doesn't mean you should miss this battle between gymnasts from countries such as China, USA, Russia, Great Britain, and even Romania and Germany likely to have athletes taking part in this final. Among all the apparatus finals being contested in the Olympics, the uneven bars final in Beijing is one event NOT to be missed.</span><br /><br /><br /><strong>Predicted Bars Finalists:</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><span style="color:#666666;">Marie Sophie-Hindermann (Germany)</span><br /><span style="color:#666666;">He Kexin (China)</span><br /><span style="color:#666666;">Nastia Liukin (USA)</span><br /><span style="color:#666666;">Chellsie Memmel (USA)</span><br /><span style="color:#666666;">Steliana Nistor (Romania)</span><br /><span style="color:#666666;">Ksenia Semionova (Russia)</span><br /><span style="color:#666666;">Elizabeth Tweddle (GBR)</span><br /><span style="color:#666666;">Yang Yilin (China)</span><br /><br /><br /><strong>Predicted Reserves:</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><span style="color:#993300;">Anja Brinker (Germany)</span><br /><span style="color:#993300;">Hong Su Jong (PRK)</span><br /><span style="color:#993300;">Dariya Zgoba (Ukraine)</span><br /><br /><br /><strong>The Contenders </strong>(Note: The A-scores I have listed are for what athletes have either competed or have publicly stated that they plan on competing)<br /><br /><strong></strong><br /><strong><span style="color:#663333;">Marie-Sophie Hindermann (Germany)</span></strong><br /><br /><span style="color:#663333;">Results: 2008 German Nationals-3rd place, 2008 Europeans-9th place(qualifying), 2007 Worlds-5th place</span><br /><span style="color:#663333;"></span><br /><span style="color:#663333;">A-score: 7.3</span><br /><span style="color:#663333;"></span><br /><span style="color:#663333;">Pros: Hindermann is appreciated for her very clean, correct style on the uneven bars. Form deductions that others suffer from do not apply to Hindermann, especially when it comes to not cowboying her double front dismount. Marie has upgraded her set to potentially .5 over where it was last year.</span><br /><span style="color:#663333;"></span><br /><span style="color:#663333;">Cons: Hindermann is very consistent with NOT hitting her bar set. Hindermann would've challenged for the European title on bars earlier this year, but a failed dismount in prelims took away her chances of competing in the finals. She also had issues at the recent German Nationals, and only placed 3rd on this event in a competition she could've easily won.</span><br /><span style="color:#663333;"></span><br /><span style="color:#663333;">Outlook: I predicted Hindermann would make bars finals because her A-score is higher than all of my predicted bars reserve gymnasts. Hindermann has yet to really put it all together on this event since last year's worlds. However, upgrades and good form could make Hindermann an outside medal threat at the Olympics if she hits her routine. </span><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="color:#ff0000;">He Kexin (China)</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span></strong><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;">Results: 2008 Chinese Nationals Bars Champion, 2008 Cottbus World Cup champion, 2008 Doha World Cup champion</span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;">A-score: 7.7 (rumored upgrades)</span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;">Pros: He Kexin is the solid favorite for uneven bars gold at these Olympics. Her consistency is remarkable, given the fact that she has yet to miss her extraordinarily difficult routine at a major competition. He Kexin's reliance on pirouettes is less so than her main rivals Nastia Liukin and Yang Yilin, which means there is less room for potential handstand deductions for Kexin. Stamina has not appeared to be an issue at all for Kexin's set, which is something that top bars challenger Liukin cannot say.</span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;">Cons: He Kexin's underage rumors could end up backfiring on the Chinese, with the judges having the option of giving a tight execution score to Kexin in order to prevent her from winning gold. Kexin withdrew from the recent Barcelona World Cup for reasons unknown, and also withdrew from the finals of the Tianjin World Cup due to "exhaustion." These recent occurrences could mean that Kexin is not as physically and mentally prepared for the Olympics as she would like.</span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;">Outlook: He Kexin has dominated bars throughout the entire year and will be tough to beat in Beijing. Consistency, lack of deductions, and incredible difficulty look to be the right combination for gold. The only things that are standing in the way are He Kexin dealing with the pressure herself and possible political disfavortism from the judges who are known to be relatively tight with the Chinese gymnasts' scores.</span><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Nastia Liukin (USA)</span></strong><br /><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span><br /><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Results: 2005-2008 USA Bars Champion, 2008 Pacific Rim-2nd place(tie), 2007 Worlds-2nd place, 2006 Worlds-2nd place, 2005 World Bars Champion</span><br /><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span><br /><span style="color:#cc33cc;">A-score: 7.7 (though unlikely, if Liukin connects Tkatchev + Pak she would have a maximum A-score of 7.9)</span><br /><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span><br /><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Pros: Nastia is a formidable challenger on this event because of her exquisite body line, good form and high difficulty. Nastia showed improvement in her bar work at the recent U.S. Nationals, especially when it came to hitting handstands. Judges are generally inclined to score tall girls favorably on this event, and Liukin is no exception. Nastia has also competed in three world bars finals, medaling in all of them, and her top rival He Kexin doesn't even have the experience of a world championship under her belt.</span><br /><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span><br /><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Cons: Nastia occurs deductions right off the bat for cowboyed form on her double front 1/2 dismount, in addition is usually a bit off handstand in her Ono 1.5 pirouette. Liukin has been struggling with maintaining her stamina throughout the routine and generally has less-than-desired landings on her dismount. Liukin has also been on the losing end twice during close bars races at the last two world championships.</span><br /><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span><br /><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Outlook: Nastia's #1 priority prior to the Olympics is cleaning up her dismount, which has about a .3 form deduction and additional deductions if she were to have a faulty landing. Liukin shouldn't be subject to another questionable loss of a bars gold medal, as the bars winners at the last two world championships (Elizabeth Tweddle and Ksenia Semionova) were from countries that had yet to win a medal in the competition. With Liukin's top rivals likely to be the two Chinese, Nastia shouldn't be subject to a loss due to the judges wanting to award the gold medal to someone who not from an especially dominant gymnastics nation. However, Nastia's scores and domestic and international competition have yet to match those of He Kexin, and might need a sizable error on her part to win the gold.</span><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="color:#000066;">Chellsie Memmel (USA)</span></strong><br /><span style="color:#000066;"></span><br /><span style="color:#000066;">Results: 2008 U.S. Nationals-2nd place, 2006 Worlds-2nd place (qualifying), 2005 Worlds-2nd place, 2003 Co-World Bars Champion</span><br /><span style="color:#000066;"></span><br /><span style="color:#000066;">A-score: 7.0 (stated it could be as high as 7.2)</span><br /><span style="color:#000066;"></span><br /><span style="color:#000066;">Pros: Chellsie has strong uneven bar work and her competitive spirit has always made her a favorite of the international judges, which should continue due to the fact that Memmel has even upgraded since her shoulder injury of doom. Chellsie's extremely consistent bar work and amplitude with her releases are also assets to contend for a bars medal.</span><br /><span style="color:#000066;"></span><br /><span style="color:#000066;">Cons: Even at top form, Chellsie is .5 behind the top A-scores on this event. This means that Chellsie would really need to rely on a big mistake from at least one of the top bars gymnasts to get a medal, and so far this year Kexin, Yilin, and Liukin have all looked pretty consistent on this event. </span><br /><span style="color:#000066;"></span><br /><span style="color:#000066;">Outlook: Chellsie's upgrades make her a very likely candidate to get into bars finals, but medaling is a different story. However, Memmel's competitive nature would make her likely to do a great routine in bars finals and if another top challenger falls under the pressure Chellsie would be right there to snatch a spot on the podium. Because of a lower start score, any podium finish will likely come by default for Memmel, unfortunately</span>.<br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="color:#006600;">Steliana Nistor (Romania)</span></strong><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">Results: 2008 Europeans-2nd place, 2007 Worlds-6th place, 2006 Worlds-7th place</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">A-score: 7.3</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">Pros: Steliana is a very well-trained athlete, and in typical Romanian fashion can cover up a mistake like no other. Steliana is quick thinking enough to save any pirouette that is not completed and rearrange her routine accordingly. Steliana is also a very consistent gymnast, especially on this event, and often sticks her landings cold which is not something many other gymnasts can do here.</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">Cons: Steliana's form is something to be desired and at the Europeans in April she lost the bars title to Ksenia Semionova despite hitting the routine with a .3 A-score advantage over Semionova. Nistor also tends to suffer from deductions from missed handstands for her multiple pirouetting skills in her routine. Lagging behind Liukin, Yilin, Kexin, and others with her start value also doesn't help Nistor's bid for a bars medal.</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">Outlook: Steliana is a consistent gymnast but doesn't have the finest quality bar work like that of the other top bar workers. As a competitor she is a very reliable gymnast and is able to work through errors efficiently in her routine, but like Memmel a medal on bars for Nistor will likely come at the expense of other gymnasts' errors.</span><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="color:#6633ff;">Ksenia Semionova (Russia)</span></strong><br /><span style="color:#6633ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#6633ff;">Results: 2008 Moscow World Cup Bars Champion, 2008 European Bars Champion, 2007 World Bars Champion</span><br /><span style="color:#6633ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#6633ff;">A-score: 7.2 (potentially 7.6 if she connects tkatchev + 1.5 pirouette + jaegar but has yet to show this combo)</span><br /><span style="color:#6633ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#6633ff;">Pros: One of the lone bright spots for the Russian team in this entire quad, Ksenia has strong political favor from the eastern-bloc nations to score her well as one of their best hopes for an individual medal of any gymnastics event for the women. Ksenia is generally a consistent bars worker and could be a top challenger for UB gold if she adds the aformentioned connection, thus only putting her .1 behind Liukin, Kexin, and Yilin in terms of A-scores.</span><br /><span style="color:#6633ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#6633ff;">Cons: Ksenia has been noted to have a stock routine, i.e. a routine that really doesn't have anything truly original. Semionova suffers form deductions for her Deltchev release, as well as her piked double arabian dismount, the latter of which she is sometimes downgraded on because she tucks her legs in the second salto. Also, if Semionova were to not upgrade to the aformentioned combination (which she so far happens), her start value would be sizably behind the other top bars workers.</span><br /><span style="color:#6633ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#6633ff;">Outlook: Semionova's technique looks to make her capable of adding the 1.5 turn into an immediate jaegar, and the Russians should know that such an upgrade is necessary for a UB medal of any color. Still, Semionova's bar work might not be on par with Tweddle, Liukin, Yilin, and Kexin because of form and other deductions, however Semionova always seems to be scored favorably on this event in any major competition. </span><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="color:#660000;">Elizabeth Tweddle (GBR)</span></strong><br /><span style="color:#660000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#660000;">Results: 2008 Europeans-4th place, 2007 Worlds-4th place, 2006 World Bars Champion, 2005 Worlds-3rd place, 2003 Worlds-3rd place</span><br /><span style="color:#660000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#660000;">A-score: 7.4 (rumored upgrades)</span><br /><span style="color:#660000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#660000;">Pros: Tweddle has a very consistent bars routine and has had the highest B-score at the last two world championship bars finals because of her good form and lack of handstand deductions (she is more reliant on releases than pirouettes). Tweddle has a very innovative bar routine and has her own element, a toe-on tkatchev 1/2, which she is hoping to have named after her. An upgraded start value of 7.4 and even more potential upgrades to come will boost Tweddle's bar medal chances considerably.</span><br /><span style="color:#660000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#660000;">Cons: A failed connection between a toe-on tkatchev and a pak salto lost Tweddle a medal at last year's world championships. Beth has been inconsistent with getting her toe-on full prior to her dismount to the handstand, and also lost credit for her new release skill when she failed to make her straddle back to handtand afterward (though she has since changed the combo to an Ezhova transition). Tweddle has never finished lower than 4th in a world bars final, but all of these little errors seem to plague Beth in bars finals, as does an older body which tends to be more prone to injury.</span><br /><span style="color:#660000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#660000;">Outlook: Everyone is thinking about the He Kexin vs. Nastia Liukin showdown, but don't count out Elizabeth Tweddle. She needs to upgrade from her already high 7.4 A-score about .2 to really be in the hunt and thus won't have to rely on other's mistakes to get on the podium. With Beth's good technique and experience she could go as far as taking everyone by surprise by winning gold, but she will need to be flawless in order to do so.</span><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="color:#ff6600;">Yang Yilin (China)</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="color:#ff6600;"></span></strong><br /><span style="color:#ff6600;">Results: 2008 Tianjin World Cup Bars Champion, 2008 Chinese Nationals-2nd place, 2007 Worlds-3rd place</span><br /><span style="color:#ff6600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#ff6600;">A-score: 7.7 (rumored upgrades)</span><br /><span style="color:#ff6600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#ff6600;">Pros: Yang Yilin is an extremely consistent competitor who has upgraded her bar routine a whooping .7 in the last year and is currently competing her 7.7 A-score bar routine cleanly. Yang has excellent form and has a good combination of high release moves with beautiful pirouetting. Yang also won't have to deal with the pressure of her teammate, He Kexin, who will have to take far more pressure on her shoulders when competing in Olympic bars finals.</span><br /><span style="color:#ff6600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#ff6600;">Cons: Yang Yilin was given relatively tight execution marks throughout the competition on bars at last year's worlds, and has yet to beat He Kexin on this event. Yang is not as much of a well-known name as Liukin, Kexin, Tweddle, and Semionova and thus judges might not be as inclined to score her highly. Like Liukin, Yang Yilin earns a lot of her start value in her pirouetting and a few missed handstands here and there will make the difference in such a tight field.</span><br /><span style="color:#ff6600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#ff6600;">Outlook: Yang Yilin could be a huge surprise on this event, with the potential to upset the favorites and win the gold. However, judges will likely be more inclined to score Kexin and Liukin more favorably than Yilin, and Yang cannot afford any short handstands or dismount steps or hops if she wants gold. A medal is very possible on this event, but like Tweddle Yang will likely need close to a flawless routine if she is going for the top spot on the podium.</span><br /><br /><br /><strong>Reserve Athletes</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><span style="color:#cc9933;"><strong>Anja Brinker (Germany)</strong>- Has a 7.1 A-score and has a very clean and mostly consistent work on this apparatus, though an apparent fall at the recent German Nationals took her out of the medals there. However, I would say that if one of the above predicted bars finalists were to not make it to bars finals due to a fall/injury (mainly Hindermann because of her recent bars issues), I would predict Brinker to sneak in there if she hits her prelims routine.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#336666;"><strong>Hong Su Jong (PRK)</strong>- Very consistent and clean bar worker, but as of last year's worlds only has a 6.6 A-score. I don't actually predict many upgrades for Su Jong on bars at the Olympics because of the Koreans likely turning their focus toward Su Jong's vault efforts.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#663366;"><strong>Dariya Zgoba (Ukraine)</strong>- Zgoba is an excellent bar worker but it will be hard, though certainly possible, task to make it in to Olympic bars finals. Zgoba has a potential 7.0 A-score but often suffers from form deductions and (correct me if I'm wrong) a compostition deduction for standing on the low bar to transition to the high bar. I would predict Zgoba to get into bars finals if Hindermann and Brinker make mistakes, enough so that Zgoba could compete in the biggest meet of her career.</span><br /><br /><br /><strong>Predicted Podium:</strong><br /><br /><span style="color:#ffcc33;">Gold: He Kexin (China)</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#666666;">Silver: Yang Yilin (China)</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#993300;">Bronze: Nastia Liukin (USA)</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="color:#6600cc;">With Kexin and Yilin more likely to upgrade than Liukin and with them being more consistent than Liukin, I do predict that these two Chinese girls will finish 1-2 and Nastia will have to settle for bronze. As far as Tweddle and Semionova are concerned, Tweddle I would actually predict to be battling for a medal more so than Semionova because of her experience, good execution and difficulty, and generally good scoring from the judges. Semionova's scoring favor will likely depend on whether Russia gets its team medal back that they so heartbreakingly lost last year. Even with a tkatchev + 1.5 turn immediate jaegar upgrade, I don't see Semionova being able to put together a competitive effort for the finals when she has yet to compete her full difficulty this year and with form that can be a big reason for deduction.</span><br /><br />Next Post: USA/China Bubble Girls Analysis<br /><br />That is all.<br /><br /><strong></strong></div>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-17822206806632132232008-06-06T10:56:00.000-07:002008-12-09T15:03:32.684-08:0025th post=2008 U.S. Nationals Extravaganza<span style="color:#660000;"></span><span style="color:#993300;"></span><span style="color:#663366;"></span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnsIV1RO-A9SubrFzaqbGZkxwCV76C94U-3Y3lLnywKdSh60UTyHQ19FrEXnI3dhgC6oK9YbSXKn-3uAICgulewCjDtwCBMqNfor1XQ11FlW0zz-Hl5rL4GZhWxoUVxkHgEk8Vh4WTYUrQ/s1600-h/top-3.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5209921611719604642" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnsIV1RO-A9SubrFzaqbGZkxwCV76C94U-3Y3lLnywKdSh60UTyHQ19FrEXnI3dhgC6oK9YbSXKn-3uAICgulewCjDtwCBMqNfor1XQ11FlW0zz-Hl5rL4GZhWxoUVxkHgEk8Vh4WTYUrQ/s400/top-3.jpg" border="0" /></a><em> Above: The all-around podium finish at the 2008 U.S. Nationals. Shawn Johnson defended her title by one point over Nastia Liukin, and Chellsie Memmel had a strong comeback meet finishing 3rd.</em><br /><br /><br /><div><span style="color:#993300;">Kicking off the much anticipated marathon selection procedure for the U.S. women's team was the Visa Championships that began in Boston on June 5th. However, much of the drama was firing up before the event even began. Ashley Priess withdrew from Nationals and from her Olympic quest entirely which apparently even her coach, Mary Lee Tracy, didn't know the reasons behind. Shayla Worley's shaky practise sessions persuaded her to bow out of Nationals as well, though we should expect to see Worley at trials. Chelsea Davis, the politically favored dark horse I have mentioned before, did not compete at all despite originally contemplating competing bars. By the time the competition arrived, the stage was set as to who has what the U.S. needs in Beijing, and who doesn't. Some confirmed what we already knew, some came out of nowhere with a bang, and others fell short of what they were able to live up to. Without further ado:</span></div><br />Please note that the vault rankings are based on both days of one-vault scores, NOT on the athletes that competed two vaults. (where A-Sac finished 1st, Ranzy finished 2nd)<br /><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#999900;">Shawn Johnson</span></strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#999900;">Results: 1st-AA, 1st-VT, 5th-UB, 2nd-BB, 1st FX</span></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><div><span style="color:#999900;">Report: Shawn had a strong meet here, hitting 8 for 8 routines. Landing her Amanar successfully should be a huge boost for Shawn's confidence, but the U.S. will need even better landings from her in Olympic team finals. Shawn took out her toe-on full on bars, which was probably a wise move because it is only worth .1 more than her regular toe-on handstand. Balance beam was solid both days, though her dismount was underotated in day one and overotated in day two. Shawn's leg-up full turn was apparently downgraded both days (her start value was a 6.9 instead of a 7.0) and thus she should take that skill out of her repertoire immediately. Shawn's new and improved 6.6 A-score on floor makes her a very formidable contender for Olympic FX gold, but her whip + triple twist needs to be cleaned up, especially when it comes to getting the full revolutions of the twist completed prior to landing. </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#999900;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#999900;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#999900;">Scoring: Shawn was scored generously on vault and floor, and definitely shouldn't have gotten her whip + triple credited in night one especially. Beam was overall pretty fair, though her 16.0 in night one was undermarked while her 16.3 in night two was overmarked. She was scored generously on bars, though her scores there were consistent in comparison with the other gymnasts.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#999900;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#999900;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#999900;">Olympic Status: Lock</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#999900;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#999900;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#999900;">Outlook: Shawn is perhaps still the leading contender for Olympic AA gold, but Nastia and Jiang Yuyuan (China) are not too far behind. Improvements to be made before Beijing include getting full revolutions on her triple twist, improving Amanar landings and getting her leg-up full turn completed. Shawn was a far more focused and less-smiley competitor than last year; which is likely an indication she is feeling the pressure but IS mentally equipped to handle it. Without the FX fall from Nastia Liukin on night one, Shawn theoretically would've finished 2nd, but given the outrageous day two scores given to Liukin I would still say Shawn would have a slight scoring advantage in an international competition as an AA gymnast if both girls were to hit. These Nationals were easily Shawn's strongest competition so far in 2008 and has yet to score under a 16 on balance beam this year.</span></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Nastia Liukin</span></strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Results: 2nd-AA, 5th-VT, 1st-UB, 1st-BB, 8th-FX</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Report: Nastia had a stuck vault in night one and while she did take a large step in night two, her power and quickness has considerably improved this year. Liukin hit her high bar difficult combinations on uneven bars, but needs to clean up her dismount form and landings if she has any hope of beating He Kexin on that apparatus. I was a bit confused with her beam score of 6.7 when she has been marking a 6.6 A-score all year long; perhaps they haven't been crediting her full turn or her front somi to scale. Suffered a fall on her double front on floor during night one, a skill which she never misses and went on to nail it on day two. Liukin's floor exercise in day two was the best floor routine I have yet to see from her. </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Scoring: Night one scoring was pretty fair, despite a somewhat generous 16.1 on beam. However, night two was a completely different story. Scoring the same on vault during both days of competition when one vault was stuck and the other wasn't was absolutely ridiculous, as was a 17.1 on bars with a near-fall on her dismount. A 15.85 on floor just added to the outrageous scoring inflation given to Liukin, which I hope doesn't persuade Martha to believe that Liukin will be our floor lead-off girl in Beijing. (though she certainly could if she were to prove that she could HIT consistently like she did on day two).</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Olympic Status: Lock</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Outlook: Nastia's improved vaulting power looks to be en route to a DTY upgrade. However an upgrade there would just be for her AA chances; allowing Liukin to vault in team finals is far too large of a risk for the U.S. Improvements to be made prior to the Olympics include increasing stamina with her uneven bars set, and perhaps get back her triple full off beam IF and only IF she can get the revolutions around consistently. Maintaining the solidity on floor exercise that she demonstrated in night two will not only be necessary for her AA medal chances, but also for the make-up of the U.S. Olympic team and the alternates. Like Shawn, Nastia has yet to score lower than a 16 on balance beam in 2008.</span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#6600cc;">Alicia Sacramone</span></strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;">Results: 2nd-VT, 3rd-BB, 2nd-FX</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;">Report: Overall a fairly disappointing comeback meet for Alicia. At home in Boston, Alicia failed to make her potential A-score of 7.0 on beam either day. Several wobbles, despite generous scoring, do not make her as reliable a competitor there as the U.S. will need. Floor Exercise was pretty solid, despite an OOB on night one and an OOB that would've likely been taken in an international competition on day two. Vault was strong from Alicia night one, but I was very disappointed that she had an almost mental breakdown after her handspring Rudi on day two (could've been due to her calf though) and bailing out of her DTY afterwards. </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;">Scoring: Generous throughout the entire event, though her vault scores were fair. A 15.95 on day two beam was absolutely outrageous, with the judges giving her credit for (what I assume) her tour jete 1/2 which wasn't fully rotated and her leg-up full turn which had a large wobble. Probably should've gotten an OOB penalty after her Arabian double front on FX during night two. Reputation, not solidity, was what saved the day for Alicia.</span></div><div><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span></div><div></div><div></div><div><span style="color:#6600cc;"><br /><br />Olympic Status: Lock</span></div><div><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#6600cc;">Outlook: Alicia had an apparently strong meet at the Karolyi International meet prior to these championships, especially on beam where she struggled here. I think Alicia is getting too sassy for her own good, she can be outspoken but there is a fine line between being outspoken yet focused and when words are not backed up with actions. However, I am confident that she was shaky here due to memories of 2004, when she didn't even make trials, and also due to the fact that her calf was acting up (she only trains leg events). Alicia definitely peaked at last year's worlds (among her performances that year) and she should be able to do so at the Games as long as she trains and competes intelligently with focus and confidence.</span><br /></div><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#006600;">Chellsie Memmel</span></strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#006600;">Results: 3rd-AA, 16th-VT, 2nd-UB, 4th-BB, 4th-FX</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#006600;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#006600;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#006600;">Report: Chellsie looked like the champion she is here with 8 out of 8 routines and finishing with a stuck cold yurchenko 1.5 which she struggled on a lot in the podium training sessions. That last vault was easily my favorite part of the competition; it showed how tough a competitor she is. In addition to that Chellsie hit two clean bars sets, which scored 16.0 and 16.3 respectively on the two days of competition. Chellsie was a tad shaky on beam during day two (15.45) and really needs to make sure all of her skills are fully rotated and connections are without pauses. With a strong floor exercise on day two (15.6), Chellsie could be seen during team finals on three events, and she has become too much of an asset to be left off the team.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#006600;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#006600;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#006600;">Scoring: A 15.45 for balance beam on day two was low comparative to some of the other scores being handed out despite similarly executed routines, notably Sacramone. The judges didn't credit one of her skills in night one where she had a 6.8 A-score (I have no clue what it was, possibly her jam to handstand?) but had a 7.0 A-score with the same exercise. Vault was perhaps the only fairly scored event of the competition, and with a stuck yurchenko 1.5 Chellsie got a 14.75 there.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#006600;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#006600;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#006600;">Olympic Status: Lock (Being the 2nd ranked UB worker alone provides the U.S. no choice but to send her in my opinion).</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#006600;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#006600;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#006600;">Outlook: Chellsie is still the most reliable girl to hit of anyone, and has the potential to contribute on any event in Olympic team finals (even vault if she gets her DTY back and consistent). Memmel is needed on bars, and can be used on beam if Sacramone doesn't get back her consistency or floor if USA feels she is most reliable to get a good score there. Remaining healthy and consistent is what Memmel needs to be concentrating on. But with two months left and even further room for improvement to be made, Chellsie should be the missing piece of the puzzle that the U.S. has been struggling to find.</span></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#339999;">Samantha Peszek</span></strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#336666;">Results: 4th-AA, 4th-VT, 6th-UB, 5th-BB, 10th-FX</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#336666;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#336666;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#336666;">Report: Sam had a good but unspectacular meet at Nationals to finish 4th AA. Sam has a potential, but not necessarily needed, score on vault. The reason why I say this is if gymnasts like Liukin or Memmel, or even vault specialists such as Brittany Ranzy or Mattie Larson can be trusted for a good score here, than Peszek isn't needed. Same thing on floor, having a 6.4 A-score there is good IF and only IF she can hit the routine. Had good routines on bars and beam (16.0 in day two) but isn't doing herself any favors by hitting on events that will be considered very little on her part to make the team. </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#336666;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#336666;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#336666;">Scoring: Scored pretty fairly throughout the entire meet, which is surprising given her apparent political favor with her mom working for USAG and liking from Martha K. Adding the presumed .8 to the fall of her floor routine on day two, she would have a 15.55, which is .05 lower than Memmel and .3 lower than Liukin. Though Liukin in particular was scored generously, it is just a picture of actually how we could use Sam on floor, but she is by no means a necessity.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#336666;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#336666;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#336666;">Olympic Status: In the mix</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#336666;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#336666;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#336666;">Outlook: Samantha really needs to step it up on the power events if she wants to go to Beijing. The selection committee really couldn't care less if Sam P. can even do a cast handstand on bars, but what they do care about are her scores on vault and floor. Floor will be the deciding factor of whether she goes or not, in my opinion. If she can hit two clean sets at trials, finish 3rd and ahead of Nastia and Chellsie, than she's going. Sam has the potential to be an asset for the team, but there are a lot of ifs to be taken into consideration.</span></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#3333ff;">Jana Bieger</span></strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#000099;">Results: 6th AA, 13th-VT, 4th-UB, 8th-BB, 6thT-FX</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#000099;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#000099;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#000099;">Report: Jana was harshly scored throughout the entire meet, and tying for 6th on floor doesn't help out her Olympic bid, which was partly because of stepping out of bounds on both days of competition. Finishing 4th on uneven bars does keep Bieger in the hunt, however. Jana does not bring anything really golden in terms of scores to the team, just solid work that is there if the U.S. absolutely needs it. </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#000099;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#000099;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#000099;">Scoring: Jana was somewhat of the 2008 version of Natasha Kelley, though Kelley was definitely underscored more at last year's Nationals. Scores were tight for Jana ironically the most on beam where everyone knows she is not needed. In contrast, her bars and floor scores were relatively tight but she didn't receive anything totally out of line on either event.</span></div><br /><br /><div><span style="color:#000099;"></span></div><br /><br /><div><span style="color:#000099;">Olympic Status: In the mix/longshot</span></div><br /><br /><div><span style="color:#000099;"></span></div><br /><br /><div><span style="color:#000099;">Outlook: It is now turning out to be that Jana won't be on the U.S. Olympic team and should've at least considered competing on Germany's Olympic team; they would select her in a heartbeat. The writing was on the wall way back last year when Jana had a sloppy, but not disastrous, meet at Nationals and was passed over in favor of the inconsistent Samantha Peszek and the then inexperienced Bridget Sloan. Jana is close to being back at her top form, but she has yet to raise her standards of gymnastics to meet up with the rest of the improving USA gymnasts and gymnasts from around the world. Jana is likely to be an alternate, as she is a great back-up option if injury occurs to a bars or floor worker.</span> </div><br /><br /><div></div><div><strong><span style="color:#990000;">Ivana Hong</span></strong></div><br /><br /><div><strong></strong></div><div><span style="color:#990000;">Results: 5th-AA, 9th-VT, 7th-UB, 6th-BB, 6thT-FX</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#990000;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#990000;">Report: Ivana's dead even and solid but unremarkable scores surprised no one, and Hong will need a miracle to get on the Olympic team. Failing to make a case for her DTY on either day, scoring lower than Sam P. and Nastia there on both days of competition, means that Ivana has no immediate qualities that U.S. can't do without. A strong meet on day two got Ivana a good 5th place finish in the AA, but these days AA standings amongst the bubble girls mean next to nothing when it comes to deciding the make-up of a team.</span></div><br /><br /><div><span style="color:#990000;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#990000;">Scoring: Fairly scored throughout the entire meet, with nothing being surprisingly high or low. This new code of points has not been a good thing for Ivana at all. Ivana's clean form, lines, and artistry are hardly rewarded when her weaknesses include missed handstands, lack of amplitude and difficulty. The aforementioned errors are often deducted far more severely on Ivana than deductions for a gymnast who lacks good lines or artistry. </span></div><br /><br /><div><span style="color:#990000;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#990000;">Olympic Status: In the mix/longshot</span></div><br /><br /><div><span style="color:#990000;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#990000;">Outlook: The gymnast who is cursed with a bad birthday is not Mattie Larson (as Tim Daggett so inaccurately mentioned, she just didn't decide to compete seniors last year) but it is in fact Ivana. Not because she's not had enough time to prepare for the Olympics or anything obvious like that. The reason I say this is because Ivana would've been an a great team asset had she competed around 12-15+ years back. This was when gymnasts competed compulsories when form and artistry were musts to get a good score, and even in optional routines where artistry and form were stressed to some degree. Ivana's strength as an AA athlete, and not a specialist, would've also helped her had she competed during that time. However, in today's time, Ivana will be blessed just to be an alternate on the Olympic team, which is a real shame.</span></div><div><strong><span style="color:#333333;"></span></strong></div><div><strong><span style="color:#333333;"></span></strong></div><div><strong><span style="color:#333333;"></span></strong></div><div><strong><span style="color:#333333;"><br /><br />Bridget Sloan</span></strong></div><br /><br /><div><strong></strong></div><div>Results: 3rd-UB, 7th-BB</div><br /><br /><div></div><div>Report: Bridget only competed two events at these championships due to being cautionary of her knee injury which she sustained in training back in March. However, significant improvement on bars came afterwards, and the withdraws from bars specialists Ashley Priess (not going to trials) and Shayla Worley (going to trials) have opened the door significantly for Bridget to make the team. A 7th place on balance beam means nothing to the already packed balance beam team we will be sending, but a 3rd place on uneven bars and finishing solidly ahead of Jana Bieger on USA's weakest event were both necessary tasks in trying to get on the Olympic team.</div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div><br />Scoring: Scored a bit generously, I haven't seen her day two bars routine but it scored a likely inflated 15.95. Also got the same execution mark on beam for both days despite a significant (IMO .5 deduction) wobble on day two. </div><br /><div></div><div>Olympic Status: In the mix</div><br /><br /><div></div><div>Outlook: Bridget Sloan, the once longshot who chose to compete seniors in '07 right before Nationals, could be peaking at the right time. Getting back to full strength and possibly competing a DTY at trials could seal the deal for Sloan to go to Beijing. The selection committee has to factor in how consistent Sloan is, and how much she can potentially contribute to the team. However, Bridget's Olympic chances will most likely come down to the health of Shayla Worley, and with both being strong on bars it will likely be a showdown for one spot. At this point in time, though, Sloan definitely has a big advantage over Worley with her strong bars showing at Nats.</div><div><strong><span style="color:#663366;"></span></strong></div><div><strong><span style="color:#663366;"></span></strong></div><div><strong><span style="color:#663366;"></span></strong></div><div><strong><span style="color:#663366;"><br /><br />Mattie Larson</span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#663366;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#663366;">Results: 7th-AA, 8th-VT, 8th-UB, 13th-BB, 3rd-FX</span></div><br /><br /><div><span style="color:#663366;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#663366;">Report: Mattie Larson, the proclaimed unofficial dark horse to the team, was strong here and has definitely improved her chances towards making the Olympic team. A 3rd place finish on floor exercise, where the U.S. are looking to fill a whole on, makes a strong statement for Larson. However, somewhat shaky DTY's (which were underscored) mean that improvement needs to be made there prior to trials if Larson has any hope of getting a spot on the team. </span></div><br /><br /><div><span style="color:#663366;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#663366;">Scoring: Mattie only averaged a 14.725 on vault (scores of both days) comparative to Sam P.'s 14.975 average despite similarly executed vaults with Sam P.'s being slightly better. However, the judges were generous to Mattie on floor, having the third highest execution score on both days of the competition. However, Mattie's 6.1 A-score is lower than what Peszek and Bieger have (6.4) and with the rumored upgrades from Memmel. </span></div><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#663366;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#663366;"><br />Olympic Status: In the mix/longshot</span></div><div><span style="color:#663366;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#663366;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#663366;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#663366;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#663366;"><br />Outlook: Going for floor alone is too small a contribution for Larson to make the team. At trials, it is imperative that Larson place 3rd on vault and floor to be seriously considered to make the team. It can happen, though, if politically biased judges decide to score her favorably and if Larson performs to her potential. Chellsie Memmel's father/coach Andy hinted upgrades on floor for Chellsie, and if Chellsie were to solidly finish 3rd on floor at trials than it will be probably be game over for Larson because of her lack of experience and for her necessity on just one event.</span></div><br /><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>Others Going to Trials Who Competed at Nationals </strong></div><br /><br /><div><strong>(</strong>The Following are all Longshots, but Shayla Worley is "In the mix.")</div><br /><br /><div><strong></strong></div><div><strong><span style="color:#cc9933;"></span></strong></div><div><strong><span style="color:#cc9933;">Corrie Lothrop</span></strong> </div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc9933;">Results: 8th-AA, 6th-VT, 9th-UB, 10thT-BB, 11th-FX</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc9933;">Outlook: Not going to Beijing, but good for her for making Olympic Trials.</span></div><br /><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#ff6600;">Randi Stageberg</span></strong></div><div><strong><span style="color:#ff6600;"></span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#ff6600;">Results: 9th-AA, 6th-VT, 15th-UB, 10thT-BB, 9th-FX</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#ff6600;">Outlook: Randi's lack of an international name caused the judges to low-ball her throughout the competition on her strengths on vault and floor and is thus very unlikely to be named even as an alternate.</span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><div><strong><span style="color:#993300;">Mackenzie Caquatto</span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#993300;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#993300;">Results: 10th-AA, 10thT-VT, 10th-UB, 15th-BB, 19th-FX</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#993300;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#993300;">Outlook: Well she certainly likes the #10! (see above). Anyway, Mackenzie reminds me of two gymnasts. One, Hilary Grivich, for their similar body types and faces. The other is Jade Barbosa, and as I mentioned in my U.S. Classic post I noticed that Mackenzie looked like she was on the verge of tears before and after a good routine and out of nowhere unveiled this beautiful smile on the floor exercise. Despite her not likely going to Beijing, I think this girl has a fairly elegant and clean style and I wish her all of the best in the future.</span></div><br /><br /><div></div><div><strong><span style="color:#663333;">Olivia Courtney</span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#663333;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#663333;">Results: 11th-AA, 10thT-VT, 17th-UB, 12th-BB, 15th-FX</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#663333;">Outlook: Another supposed dark horse to the team, but finishing 10th on vault and 15th on floor mean that she is too inexperienced and unpolished to be trusted to compete in the Olympics.</span></div><br /><br /><div></div><div><strong><span style="color:#ff0000;">Alaina Johnson</span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#ff0000;">Results: 12th-AA, 20th-VT, 12th-UB, 16th-BB, 14th-FX</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#ff0000;">Outlook: The "other" Johnson beat out WOGA gymnast Christa Tanella to get the last spot on the National team by .2 of a point. She will go to the Olympic trials, which is a great accomplishment even if Beijing is not in her immediate future.</span></div><br /><br /><div></div><div><strong><span style="color:#333399;">Amber Trani</span></strong></div><div><span style="color:#000099;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#000099;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#000099;"><br />Results: 14th-VT, 9th-BB, 18th-FX</span></div><div><span style="color:#000099;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#000099;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#000099;"><br />Outlook: Why on earth did Martha K. even let Amber go to trials given the fact that Amber did poorly at both the U.S. Classic and here at Nationals as well. Martha K. probably felt that the Mrs. would lose all hope for the future if she didn't have at least one girl at trials with Geralen now out of the picture. I'm sure the Mrs. thinks that Amber has a legitimate shot at going to Beijing, when everyone else knows she won't be. For Amber's sake it would probably be better for her to not have advanced trials so she could rest her body prior to NCAA. </span></div><br /><br /><div></div><div><strong><span style="color:#003333;">Darling Hill</span></strong></div><div><span style="color:#003333;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#003333;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#003333;"><br />Results: 15th-VT, 20th-BB, 5th-FX</span></div><div><span style="color:#003333;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#003333;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#003333;"><br />Outlook: Darling is consistent on floor, but failing to get above a 15.25 on floor on either day of competition and failing to make top 3 on floor basically means game over for Hill's Olympic bid. However, Darling has done herself and her grandmother who passed on earlier this year proud by making the Olympic Trials.</span></div><br /><br /><div></div><div><strong>The Injured Few</strong></div><br /><br /><div><strong></strong></div><div><strong><span style="color:#6600cc;">Chelsea Davis</span></strong></div><br /><br /><div><strong></strong></div><div><span style="color:#6600cc;">Outlook: Chelsea is being used as a psychological ploy by Martha K., scaring the girls with a gymnast very few people have heard about outside the diehard circle of gymnastics fans and others in the know. As I have said before, Kim Zmeskal is the only reason I believe she is even going to Olympic trials. Despite political favor, Davis is unlikely to be needing her passport anytime soon due to lack of experience and individual strengths that the U.S. needs.</span></div><div><strong><span style="color:#660000;"></span></strong></div><div><strong><span style="color:#660000;"></span></strong></div><div><strong><span style="color:#660000;"></span></strong></div><div><strong><span style="color:#660000;"><br /><br />Shayla Worley</span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#660000;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#660000;"><br />Outlook: Shayla's back injuries have left a spot on the team up for grabs for several gymnasts, including her. Having bars as a strength is good for Worley's Olympic chances, but Bridget Sloan's consistency and improved difficulty on that event will make it hard for Worley to make the team. Look at the trials for who finishes 3rd on bars, as this one finish is crucial for Sloan and Worley's Olympic chances, as well as the make-up of the alternates. Shayla is doubtful to be left off the team entirely, unless if she is going to come back at very subpar form. At this point in time, I would predict that Shayla will be an alternate.</span></div><br /><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>And We Shouldn't Forget This One</strong></div><br /><br /><div><strong></strong></div><div><strong><span style="color:#666600;">Brittany Ranzy</span></strong></div><br /><br /><div><strong></strong></div><div><span style="color:#666600;">Results: 14th-AA, 3rd VT, 13thT-UB, 21st-BB, 13th-FX</span></div><br /><br /><div><span style="color:#666600;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#666600;">Outlook: Ok, now I doubt any of you have even taken as much as a second's worth of thought that this girl could be on the Olympic team. I certainly haven't. However, Ranzy finished 3rd on vault at Nats ahead of Sam P., Ivana, and Mattie. But what really got me going was a rumor that she is planning an Amanar for trials. Since the U.S. has no other girl that does an Amanar besides Shawn, (Alicia is unlikely to compete the vault in team finals even if it is consistent), another Amanar vault could be an additional great asset for the team. If Chellsie finishes 3rd on floor, this could further improve Ranzy's chances as there would be not be a great need for an additional floor specialist, like Sam P. or Jana. If Ranzy comes to trials with a DTY and does it cleanly, can she go to Beijing? Not a chance. But if she has an Amanar and lands it on both days, than they have to at least pick her as an alternate, lack of experience aside. Ranzy making the Olympic team is unlikely at best, but an Amanar vault from this young lady would be an interesting development in the Olympic race for the last two spots on the team.</span> </div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>2008 U.S. Nationals Longines Awards</strong></div><br /><div>(mocking the "Longines Prize for Elegance" that is handed out every year at Worlds)</div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>The Longines Award for the Halloween/Chocolate Leo Disaster of the Century:</strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div>Shawn Johnson</div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>The Longines Prize for Most Visually Appealing Leo:</strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div>Nastia Liukin, Day Two (This one was somewhat like Olesia Dudnik's at BB/FX finals at the 1989 Worlds, except Nastia's was more purple than Olesia's was)</div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>The Longines Prize for Favorite Among Older Men</strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div>Three-Way tie between Samantha Peszek, Shawn Johnson, and Alicia Sacramone. Don't ask, these gymnasts are who my father (who knows NOTHING about gymnastics) liked the most.</div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>The Longines Prize for Sorry You're Not Going to Olympic Trials</strong></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div>Ashley Stott, who won the U.S. Classic but had several issues here and finished behind several gymnasts who she beat at Classic.</div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>The Longines Prize for Underscoring/Martha K. Doesn't Want You to go to Beijing:</strong></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div>Jana Bieger</div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>The Longines Prize for Overscoring/USAG Loves You:</strong></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div>Nastia Liukin</div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>The Longines Prize for Why the Hell Did You Retire?</strong></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div>Ashley Priess</div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>The Longines Prize for Polish:</strong></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div>Samantha Shapiro</div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>The Longines Prize for Followers:</strong></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div>Samantha Peszek. Wherever A-Sac is, Sam P. is always within a few feet's radius of Alicia. Though that's not necessarily a bad thing when it comes to team chemistry. </div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>The Longines Prize for Outstanding Comeback:</strong></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div>Chellsie Memmel. Chellsie even has room for improvement onward to Beijing, and her bars strengths alone are a huge relief to the U.S. team.</div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>The Longines Prize for Best Overall Gymnastics:</strong></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div>Shawn Johnson</div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>The Longines Prize for Please God Let Your Calf Be OK:</strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div>Alicia Sacramone. We need her in top form for Beijing.</div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>The Longines Prize for Elegance:</strong></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><div>Nastia Liukin. Had a great meet aside from her double front FX fall in day one, and FINALLY hit a clean FX set in day two for the first time in years. Go Nastia!</div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#6633ff;">Things to Look Out For at Olympic Trials</span></strong></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><ul><br /><li><span style="color:#6633ff;">Politically biased scores and inflated marks for top gymnasts are likely to continue. Expect inflated marks for the four locks plus Peszek, Sloan, and Worley. Bieger, Hong, Larson, and the other bubble girls will likely be scored fairly harshly throughout the meet like they were at these championships.</span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#6633ff;">Despite the fact that Shawn Johnson won Nationals, Liukin could steal the top spot at Trials due to strong political favor from USAG and possible upgrades to come. This would actually be a blessing in disguise for Shawn Johnson, who wouldn't have to deal with as much pressure going into Beijing. Chellsie Memmel likely won't break into the top two at trials unless if Liukin and/or Johnson suffer falls. </span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#6633ff;">AA and Beam placements are irrelevant at trials, instead pay close attention to who finishes 3rd on bars, vault, and floor. If Bridget Sloan is to finish 3rd on bars at trials with a sizable lead over Worley, I honestly think they have to pick her regardless of Sloan and Worley's placements on the other apparatus. </span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#6633ff;">Brittany Ranzy's Amanar vault, if done successfully, could make her somewhat of the Annia Hatch of this year's Olympic team. However, the only way this can happen is if Memmel and Liukin finish ahead of Peszek, Bieger and Larson on floor, thus degrading the need for a floor specialist.</span></li></ul><br /><p>Next Post: Olympic UB Final Outlook</p><br /><p>That is all.</p><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><div><strong></strong></div><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-71916421773141779612008-06-04T10:02:00.001-07:002008-12-09T15:03:32.883-08:00Drama, Gossip, Rumors and Final Thoughts Prior to Nationals<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5shvNBnEJuvAyZMP38LktezVa4o1IY_iml7isMuCSBIgMDuMlldZYaUhefGkjdcMsd54CZ7kmBLA-DJJvgT2Ug9tuMJkRzEqEU9QlZpauj3hweVLkQCIxyMCqMdSbsxf7Gj_IYAlM6Hum/s1600-h/vc_women_267_20080528_111649.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5208455468994839602" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5shvNBnEJuvAyZMP38LktezVa4o1IY_iml7isMuCSBIgMDuMlldZYaUhefGkjdcMsd54CZ7kmBLA-DJJvgT2Ug9tuMJkRzEqEU9QlZpauj3hweVLkQCIxyMCqMdSbsxf7Gj_IYAlM6Hum/s400/vc_women_267_20080528_111649.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><span style="color:#339999;">I was roaming around WWGYM today and found some very INTERESTING tidbits from Nationals, including some reports on the podium training sessions. As I have mentioned before, Nationals are incredibly important for all of the girls, especially the bubble girls that actually have a CHANCE at going to the Olympics. Without further ado:</span><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Drama, Gossip, and Rumors </strong>(These are JUST rumors, so don't go to town thinking that they are all true)<br /><br /><br /><ul><br /><br /><li><span style="color:#993300;">Chelsea Davis, the new dark horse who is coached by '91 World AA Champ Kim Zmeskal, has apparently sustained a knee injury and will not be competing any events besides bars. Knee injury or not, Davis is certainly not going to Beijing even with strong political favor with coach Kim Zmeskal being a former Karolyi star. Martha K. mentioning Chelsea as a dark horse was likely a psychological ploy to scare the other girls into working harder, and Martha K. has stated that we will still see Davis at trials (along with Sloan who isn't doing AA). Kim Zmeskal being Davis' coach likely prompted Martha K. to let this unknown go to trials, and this political favor could pay huge dividens if Davis presses onward to London 2012. </span></li><br /><br /><li><span style="color:#993300;">There have been reports that a judge said that Jana Bieger will be the sacrificial lamb of these championships, i.e. the Natasha Kelley underscoring fiasco of last year. Apparently the judges will score all the other bubble girls highly provided if they hit their routines to their capable start values, i.e. hit routines and NO missed connections. There will be harsh penalties for missed handstands, missed connections, wobbles, etc. Also, expect huge marks from Liukin for hit bars and beam routines. Not sure if any of this info is legit but that is the scoop.</span></li><br /><br /><li><span style="color:#993300;">There have also been reports that the equipment being used in Boston is that of Janseen-Fritsen, the same brand of equipment being used at the Games. However, the equipment is being disguised as the AAI equipment that is generally used in American meets. At Nationals look closely for hit routines on floor from Samantha Peszek, as there have been many reports that she can't tumble any where near as well when she is not competing on an AAI floor mat. </span></li><br /><br /><li><span style="color:#993300;">Shayla Worley has been rumored to be withdrawing from Nationals altogether and to be petitioning to trials, though apparently she looked reasonably solid in the podium training. </span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#993300;"><strong>CONFIRMED:</strong> Ashley Priess has withdrawn and WILL NOT be petitioning to trials. The reasons to this are largely unknown, but ANGRY THOUGHTS are to come later in the post.</span></li></ul><br /><p><strong>Podium Training Reports</strong></p><br /><p><span style="color:#006600;">Shawn- Landed her Amanar successfully, FX music is to the movie "August Rush," struggled a little with her switch leap/layout-back pike series on beam.</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#006600;">Nastia- Looked very strong, has not upgraded tkatchev + pak and I haven't heard anything about a DTY or triple twist dismount off BB either.</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#006600;">Chellsie- Excellent UB work, apparently trying to get a double front 1/2 dismount (though this isn't any more valuable than a double front). Landed her piked double Arabian and looked good on beam minus one fall on her piked barani. Looked shaky with her yurchenko 1.5, however.</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#006600;">Sam- Inconsistency with DTY (!) and inconsistency with 2.5 twist + layout front full, but has showed strong double-doubles and a 1.5 twist through to double pike upgrade. Looked good on bars and beam, but apparently hasn't showed her planned double/double dismount off UB.</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#006600;">Shayla- Looking out of shape, apparently she is suffering from a back injury. Did some individual skills on bars and had a couple good routines on beam but showed a bunch of missed yurchenko 1.5's. Whether she will even be even competing tonight remains uncertain, but if she does continue she will likely stick to just doing bars and beam.</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#006600;">Alicia- Hasn't shown anything but timers on vault, but was rock solid on beam and has the EXACT same floor music/choreography/tumbling. Hopefully she has been working on a couple upgrades for trials; the U.S. needs them.</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#006600;">Ivana- Missed handstands and tkatchev is STILL low on UB (stuck her full-in dismount, though). Good DTY's, planning a double front upgrade on floor but has been struggling with it. </span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#006600;">Bridget- Likely only competing bars and beam, but looked especially solid on bars. Showing a good layout full-in dismount, and Ashley's withdrawal opens a huge door for Bridget to make the team.</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#006600;">Jana- Have surprisingly heard very little about.</span> </p><br /><p></p><br /><p><strong>Thoughts On Ashley Priess' Withdrawl and How It Changes the Selection Landscape</strong></p><br /><p><span style="color:#ff6600;">It is unclear whether Priess' retirement has anything to do with an injury (though there have been rumors of back issues), she came to one training in session in Boston and looked OK and all of a sudden just vanished. I wonder if Priess was simply afraid or unwilling to go through the selection process, or felt she wouldn't be able to deliver a strong performance as she hasn't competed at a major meet since 2006 Worlds. But if Ashley's decision was based on not believing she was useful enough to make the team, than she was very unwise to bow out of the race. Scores of 15.75 and 15.8 on bars at the Karolyi International meet, though likely a bit inflated, are scores that the U.S. would like to get their hands on for a lead-off bar worker. Martha K. has stated how CRUCIAL performances on bars will be when determining the Olympic team. Ashley being sent for bars only would also provide strong scoring from judges who would be persuaded to score her favorably for being good enough to be on the current world champion team for just one event. I was actually going to go as far as predicting that if Ashley hit her routines at Nats/Oly Trials with scores like those at the camp they would pick her over Worley, Sloan, Bieger, and Hong. However, I suppose I should just look at the subject matter this way: Bowing out of the Olympic selection marathon means that she wouldn't have been physically or mentally ready to go to the Olympics even if she had gone for it. As for the team, I think that Chellsie Memmel has joined the Fab 3 as locks for the team. However, I wouldn't say Samantha Peszek is a lock YET. The last two spots will obviously come down to a 3rd bar worker and a 3rd vault/floor worker.</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#ff6600;">Here is a breakdown of team finals spots look to be sewn up assuming Shawn, Nastia, A-Sac are all on the team (Chellsie is not officially a lock until she has competed well at these Nationals). Tier A represents those that are legitimate uses in a team final. Tier B represents those that have potential to contribute on this event but have not shown competitive readiness on that event as of late or is not an experienced competitor. Tier C represents those that are needed only in an emergency. This "contest" includes everyone besides Johnson, Liukin, and Sacramone. Someone who is not granted status in any of the tiers will not have any chance of contributing on the respective piece of apparatus in a team final.</span></p><br /><p><strong>Points Awarded:</strong></p><br /><p><span style="color:#cc9933;">Tier A (VT/BB)-3 Tier A (FX)- 4 Tier A (UB)-5</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#666666;">Tier B (VT/BB)-2 Tier B (FX)-2.5 Tier B (UB)-3.0</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#993300;">Tier C (VT/BB)-1 Tier C (FX)-1 Tier C (UB)-1.5</span></p><br /><p><strong>Vault: Sacramone, Johnson, ?</strong> </p><br /><p><span style="color:#cc9933;">Tier A: Hong, Peszek</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#666666;">Tier B: Olivia Courtney, Mackenzie Caquatto (top U.S. Classic vault mark), Stageberg</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#993300;">Tier C: Memmel, Worley, Ashley Stott, Hill, Sloan, Corrie Lothrop, Bieger, Larson, Trani,</span> <span style="color:#993300;">Brittany Ranzy</span></p><br /><p><strong>Uneven Bars: Liukin, ?, ?</strong></p><br /><p><span style="color:#cc9933;">Tier A: Memmel, Sloan, Worley</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#666666;">Tier B: Bieger</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#993300;">Tier C: Hong, Peszek</span></p><br /><p><strong>Balance Beam: Johnson, Liukin, Sacramone</strong></p><br /><p><span style="color:#cc9933;">Tier A: Memmel</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#666666;">Tier B: Peszek, Worley, Bieger</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#993300;">Tier C: Hong</span></p><br /><p><strong>Floor Exercise: Johnson, Sacramone, ?</strong></p><br /><p><span style="color:#cc9933;">Tier A: Memmel, Peszek, Hill, Bieger, Sloan</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#666666;">Tier B: Larson, Stageberg</span></p><br /><p><span style="color:#993300;">Tier C: Hong, Worley, Courtney</span></p><br /><p><strong>The Results: Remaining Three Spots on the Team</strong></p><br /><p>Memmel=13 points</p><br /><p>Peszek=10.5 points</p><br /><p>Sloan= 10.5 points</p><br /><p><strong>Alternates</strong> (I believe only two alternates will be selected, but I have listed the next top 3)</p><br /><p>Bieger= 10 points</p><br /><p>Worley=9.5 points</p><br /><p>Hong= 6.5 points</p><br /><p><span style="color:#cc33cc;">While the points I have listed theoretically indicate that Sloan and Peszek would get the last two spots with Bieger and Worley as the two alternates, these points are based on if Shayla is healthy and ready to go, specifically the bars. Hong can actually get on the team if she finishes ahead of Peszek on vault at both Nationals and Olympic Trials. Anything less than that and she is an alternate at best. Jana Bieger is unlikely to be on the team even if she is in good form, because she is PERFECT alternate material. If a girl is to get injured Jana could potentially fill in on any event, especially on bars and/or floor, but wouldn't contribute any valuable scores that the U.S. doesn't already have. Worley is the wild card in all of this madness. If she can gut it out and have UB scores worthy of a top 3 finish at the Olympic Trials (especially) where she will hopefully be healthier, than she probably could go. But if Shayla performs lackluster or doesn't compete at all in Boston (which seems likely), they will still let her go to trials but in that scenario I think Bridget has actually got herself a ticket to go to Beijing. Sam P. has good political favor, and if the rumors of Bieger being scored harshly hold true Peszek should be going. Peszek isn't of such great use to the team unless she can magically pull out an Amanar or a 6.4/6.5 A-score on floor, with Memmel looking to contribute on FX as well.</span></p><br /><p>The drama begins tonight at 7:00 P.M. in Boston. </p><br /><p>Next Post: Commentary on Day 1 of Nats to come tomorrow.</p><br /><p>That is all.</p><br /><p></p><br /><p></p><br /><p></p></div>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-52975241131259171572008-06-03T09:50:00.001-07:002008-12-09T15:03:33.586-08:00Could Chellsie Memmel Be One of the Top Two U.S. AA'ers<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLdNSqjhGFtNIK6_QXgQ4cx8RYA7aYNG80h8-sYEyT36zPV2vYuT_NFlRwjpLyo4tRzx2v0VVPFFsjAJ2KTUj5gUBPjy2CHy8CUR2M2lZ1Sqp5QYsqQhsyKHHJkIFEJYV2r-Mb3Tn8tn4F/s1600-h/_44104106_gymnastics416.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5207724968048377042" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLdNSqjhGFtNIK6_QXgQ4cx8RYA7aYNG80h8-sYEyT36zPV2vYuT_NFlRwjpLyo4tRzx2v0VVPFFsjAJ2KTUj5gUBPjy2CHy8CUR2M2lZ1Sqp5QYsqQhsyKHHJkIFEJYV2r-Mb3Tn8tn4F/s400/_44104106_gymnastics416.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiMnjxV__sQkd0mDeqLLygc0Pd1RW0C2A2XjdpR8t-GfIi4awNtV-e_p37vR3LhvokiNWY13sLgJXUzSrHGHvkW__0BR9v_CTnaDSvVOwBFvig5gx_lZucMiY6SkziZ1BxBQcGDZFyOux6/s1600-h/memmel_10.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5207724972343344354" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiMnjxV__sQkd0mDeqLLygc0Pd1RW0C2A2XjdpR8t-GfIi4awNtV-e_p37vR3LhvokiNWY13sLgJXUzSrHGHvkW__0BR9v_CTnaDSvVOwBFvig5gx_lZucMiY6SkziZ1BxBQcGDZFyOux6/s400/memmel_10.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdTQ6BOxN9iG1yyZImdIPR0dVkonRQfokLSk-KuVRsNiwEkINulLiNYAAQvXwu202OSKZslTiIy_7b7gmFME-DsZgxB_CYC9wFJeXXElis_a1-lB9ybZZcsraTf2Vta-cj1e-LmJydXohl/s1600-h/Nastia_01.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5207724972343344370" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdTQ6BOxN9iG1yyZImdIPR0dVkonRQfokLSk-KuVRsNiwEkINulLiNYAAQvXwu202OSKZslTiIy_7b7gmFME-DsZgxB_CYC9wFJeXXElis_a1-lB9ybZZcsraTf2Vta-cj1e-LmJydXohl/s400/Nastia_01.jpg" border="0" /></a><em> Above: Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, and Chellsie Memmel are all capable of being an Olympic AA medalist at top form. But only two of these three gymnasts can even qualify to AA finals, and Chellsie Memmel is looking to close in on the hold Shawn and Nastia have on the two U.S. Olympic AA spots.</em><br /><br /><br /><div>This question poked into my head when I saw an article about Memmel in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel analyzing her routines and physical condition in preparation for this week's U.S. Nationals. In it I saw some very promising upgrades on Memmel's part that if done successfully will most certainly get her on the Olympic team. But if everything goes right you could see Memmel not only qualifying to Olympic AA finals but also contending for an AA medal. I will go ahead and compare potential start values and execution scores with you all between Chellsie Memmel, Nastia Liukin, and Shawn Johnson. </div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>Vault</strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Johnson: Yurchenko 2.5 twist (6.5 A)</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Liukin: Potential Yurchenko double (5.8 A)</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Memmel: Yurchenko double (5.8 A)-Note: Does not plan on using this vault until Olympic Trials</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Johnson will likely be landing her Amanar vault with consistency, and thus I will give her about a 15.95 for that. Memmel and Liukin are question marks on this event, with Liukin apparently having problems with her yurchenko 1.5 meet at the recent camp meet and thus making a DTY questionable. Memmel admitted that vault is currently her hardest event to master consistency but still does intend on getting her DTY ready for Trials. I will give 14.9 to both Liukin and Memmel here if they are capable of hitting this vault.</span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>Uneven Bars</strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#009900;">Johnson: 6.3 A-score</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#009900;">Liukin: 7.7 A-score</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#009900;">Memmel: Potential 7.2 A-score (6.9 thus far)</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#009900;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#009900;">Johnson will fall behind Memmel and Liukin especially on this event. Johnson's consistency and good execution, however, will keep her in there with an estimated 15.45. Memmel will likely stick with her 6.9 routine at these championships and wait to bump it up to 7.2 at the trials. A hit routine with a 7.2 A-score should give Memmel around a 16.3. Liukin has had some trouble with her 7.7 A-score this year, but has had time to get more consistency here and a clean routine here should garner her around a 16.9.</span> </div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>Balance Beam</strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#339999;">Johnson: 7.0 A-score</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#339999;">Liukin: 6.6 A-score (6.8 with triple twist dismount)</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#339999;">Memmel: Potentially 6.9 A-score (6.7 at the camp meet)</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#339999;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#339999;">Johnson earned execution marks in the 9.4 range on beam at the World Championship prelims even with a few wobbles (the execution scores were generous throughout the entire preliminary competition on this event), so with a 7.0 A-score I would give her a 16.4 here. Liukin has been looking excellent on this event this year, but I find it unlikely that we will see both the DTY and triple twist in her repertoire. Because I gave her a score for a DTY earlier, I will give her a 16.1 here assuming it is out of a 6.6 start value. Memmel is definitely the wild card here. Her maximum difficulty in the past was a 6.7, but a .2 upgrade here will further add potential to the beam line-up at the Olympics and will further put pressure on the Fab 3 (Shawn, Nastia, and A-Sac) to prove that they deserve spots in beam finals and being the three girls competing beam in team finals. Relatively poor form and artistry has hurt Memmel's scores here a bit in the past, so I will give her a 15.9 with a cleanly hit routine with that start value. </span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>Floor Exercise</strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#993300;">Johnson: 6.4/6.5 A-score depending on whether she includes full-in at end of routine</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#993300;">Liukin: 6.2 A-score</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#993300;">Memmel: 6.2 A-score (with piked double Arabian)</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#993300;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#993300;">Johnson has the biggest potential for a high score on this event, and should mark around a 15.65 with a clean routine with the upgrades in her routine. Liukin has form issues on some of her tumbling and is inconsistent, but has the potential to score around 15 here. Memmel's artistry is lacking on this event, but the international judges have scored Memmel very favorably here in the past. With a piked double Arabian here, she should have about a 15.35 on this event.</span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>A-score totals (With what we know gymnasts are planning)</strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#666600;">Shawn Johnson: 26.2 (6.5, 6.3, 7.0, 6.4)</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#666600;">Nastia Liukin: 26.0 (5.5, 7.7, 6.6, 6.2)</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#666600;">Chellsie Memmel: 25.5 (5.5, 6.9, 6.9, 6.2)</span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>With Possible Upgrades</strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#990000;">Shawn Johnson: 26.3 (6.5 on FX)</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#990000;">Nastia Liukin: 26.5 (5.8 on VT, 6.8 on BB)</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#990000;">Chellsie Memmel: 26.1 (5.8 on VT, 7.2 on UB)</span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>Scores that I predicted</strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;">Shawn Johnson: 15.95, 15.45, 16.4, 15.65= 63.45</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;">Nastia Liukin: 14.9, 16.9, 16.1, 15.0= 62.9</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;">Chellsie Memmel: 14.9, 16.3, 15.9, 15.35=62.45</span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#ff6600;">Though Memmel lags behind Johnson and Liukin in terms of these scores, the scores I put in are those that the gymnasts could get if they hit everything perfectly. Memmel is a more experienced and reliable gymnast than both Johnson and Liukin, so don't be super surprised if she gets into AA finals. All three of these girls have good reputations and should all be given favorable scores when competing. Chellsie's upgrades on bars, beam, and floor and her competitive nature should get her on the Olympic team provided she will peak at the right time. However, the major question will be if Martha K. allows Chellsie to compete AA in prelims or if Chellsie will be encouraged on polishing up her other three events for the good of the team. Answers to these questions and more will begin to be found at the U.S. Nationals beginning this Thursday.</span> </div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><strong>What Memmel's Upgrades Potentially Mean for the Remainder of the U.S. Bubble Girls</strong></div><br /><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#000066;">Chellsie Memmel having a potential 7.2 A-score on bars, 6.9 A-score on beam, and 6.2 on floor almost make her a lock for the team in my opinion (providing she HITS these routines at these Nationals). Chellsie's strength on UB, BB, and FX will put particularly added emphasis on the fight for 3rd place on bars between Shayla Worley (good international reputation/scoring potential), Ashley Priess (good execution/consistency), Bridget Sloan (upgrades/cool competitor), and Jana Bieger (aggressive worker/internationally seasoned). With Johnson, Liukin, Sacramone, and possibly Memmel being locks and a need for a bars specialist, this leaves just one more spot. Samantha Peszek is the likely candidate with potential for high A-scores on vault and floor and improved confidence and consistency, but don't be shocked if another girl sneaks into the mix because of a needed strength for the team.</span></div><br /><br />I still believe that Shawn and Nastia will be the two U.S. AA finalists at the Games, but what I was trying to convey in my post was that Chellsie could end up peaking at the right time and could quietly sneak into AA finals if either Shawn or Nastia has a major error.<br /><br />That is all.MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-55140333352288042452008-06-03T08:37:00.000-07:002008-12-09T15:03:33.754-08:00Tribute to Shawn Johnson<span style="color:#ffff00;"></span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoCR9BcS2Mh0bkQOwGArcLDUqxQAWYGvHA0iMG6QGzjfhAVs6ZnIWfBRDVagygw3jZIORSSf7QyepKnVs91QFxLxuYpKmEHSrS9kJGwlwkMn6vIBKbwJHpCsPqVEcaJ-NjtIqHllKbB_a_/s1600-h/37890474.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5207693193880321218" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoCR9BcS2Mh0bkQOwGArcLDUqxQAWYGvHA0iMG6QGzjfhAVs6ZnIWfBRDVagygw3jZIORSSf7QyepKnVs91QFxLxuYpKmEHSrS9kJGwlwkMn6vIBKbwJHpCsPqVEcaJ-NjtIqHllKbB_a_/s400/37890474.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;">I started following gymnastics avidly during 2004 and the build up to the Olympics. And I kept hearing the name Carly Patterson over and over again. While the NBC commentators would salivate over her calm and light beam work, Patterson's lack of spark and somewhat arrogant personality turned me off. By the time the Olympics rolled around, Patterson was being touted as America's best hope for Olympic AA gold, but with the two Courtneys in tow she wasn't their only hope. But in Athens, Patterson clearly was in the best shape to win it all. After a shaky team finals performance, I wanted the Russian bitchface Svetlana Khorkina to win the Olympic AA gold. Even though Khorkina posed in Playboy, even though she often showed unsportsmanlike conduct, I wanted the dedicated Russian beauty to win. But on that night, athlete triumphed over artist, the time would be right for Patterson. Or would it? Patterson fell as quickly in the media spotlight as she had arrived, and after being on the Wheaties box, attention would not be forthcoming. We will still be looking for the next Mary Lou, not the next Carly, even though Patterson's accomplishment of winning in a non-boycotted competition and on foreign soil do outshine Retton's accomplishments on paper. </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;">With Carly not living up to her role as the next great American gymnastics superstar, I was eagerly awaiting who would be the darling of the 2008 Games. I found Nastia Liukin to be a gorgeous gymnast with enthralling polish and flexibility, but her personality made it seen as though she was never enjoying herself out on the floor. I was shocked to find out that Vanessa Ferrari won the World Championship AA crown with a fall, and though I have since warmed up to Ferrari I almost stopped watching gymnastics entirely. </span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;">The 2007 American Cup had arrived, and immediately the commentators were announcing a young 15 year-old girl by the name Shawn Johnson as the next great thing of gymnastics. I had never even heard of her, but by the second she mounted bars I was transfixed. Lovely form, good releases, and out of nowhere popped out a laidout double-double dismount. When NBC showed a fluff piece of her, she was instantly my favorite. A humble, down-to-earth, but intelligent and mature personality was shown by this incredible gymnast that <strong>shock horror</strong>, goes to a real school and trains less than 30 hours a week. Despite a fall on beam Shawn's incredible skill, great technique, and an infectious smile made me think that she was the next great hope for gymnastics. Shawn's humble and joyous attitude made me fall in love with gymnastics all over again; even a new code of points couldn't change that.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#6600cc;">As Shawn won everything in 2007, I was happy but worried. The media's intense interest in Shawn after her World AA win was arguably more than that of Kim Zmeskal, and Shawn would have to carry that throughout build-up to the Olympics. And also the fact that Lilia Podkopayeva (UKR) was the only gymnast in the last eight Olympics to defend her World AA crown at the Olympics. But if anyone can do it, Shawn can. Her genuine love of gymnastics and of life will hopefully continue to outshine the pressure of being the world's best gymnast. And more than her great skill and all of what she has done to make the U.S. team more successful, Shawn's love for gymnastics and gracious acceptance of victory or defeat are my favorite things about her. OK, yes she says "It's an honor" more times than China has people, I understand. But regardless of whether she wins Olympic AA gold, her natural joy for the sport of gymnastics and of life and her always rooting for the U.S. team and for others to do well makes me want Shawn to be successful, to make herself proud of what she has done.</span> </div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div><br /><br />That is all.</div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-67833332410749428832008-05-28T17:30:00.000-07:002008-12-09T15:03:34.432-08:002008 U.S. Nationals Preview<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_Ts_8U_QaMiCEWTWszw1mHLOJjo8uCvcPLkrAQ8oJMYfHSEsY6NOGI1detm__5fxGfPyDyuEXifDM9gWmg2o5uD04bRGsxho1PxJ9-10qGNul5iF8_wIirETHN4N4Y-khqCAYEX4upefr/s1600-h/T1_0820_liukin.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5206012808489721810" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_Ts_8U_QaMiCEWTWszw1mHLOJjo8uCvcPLkrAQ8oJMYfHSEsY6NOGI1detm__5fxGfPyDyuEXifDM9gWmg2o5uD04bRGsxho1PxJ9-10qGNul5iF8_wIirETHN4N4Y-khqCAYEX4upefr/s320/T1_0820_liukin.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcgQ6Fj-u3q2eO2TzaoiO3twyINA3uSs18ic4gU1Y7Q48zdy7YXkKnoPj-Hh9DTHv3HBbjdJQZbygUApPtOrxoFVJQwiGva8o4eYVUmVbqlaE7nY72Mh-FwD23MV07H2P6-egBeB9OL8id/s1600-h/76170585.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5206011897956655026" style="FLOAT: right; MARGIN: 0px 0px 10px 10px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcgQ6Fj-u3q2eO2TzaoiO3twyINA3uSs18ic4gU1Y7Q48zdy7YXkKnoPj-Hh9DTHv3HBbjdJQZbygUApPtOrxoFVJQwiGva8o4eYVUmVbqlaE7nY72Mh-FwD23MV07H2P6-egBeB9OL8id/s320/76170585.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMgyJ1ZY8d30SRYi_58pWweAhURxJiA51AvSJwdGwWQuWSVScCh6Q7E97Vv99LeoqPBKE63eJ5GqCihtXgWXUEV_3z10buGqQ8PagYE-bAB83tWlUw03sWmfV2xWGD2hN3hWo4dINiijzC/s1600-h/bostonSkyline.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5206011902251622338" style="FLOAT: right; MARGIN: 0px 0px 10px 10px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMgyJ1ZY8d30SRYi_58pWweAhURxJiA51AvSJwdGwWQuWSVScCh6Q7E97Vv99LeoqPBKE63eJ5GqCihtXgWXUEV_3z10buGqQ8PagYE-bAB83tWlUw03sWmfV2xWGD2hN3hWo4dINiijzC/s320/bostonSkyline.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><div><strong>2008 U.S. National Championships-Women </strong><br /><br /><strong>Polish101 Preview</strong> </div><br /><div><em></em></div><br /><div><em>Above: Shawn Johnson is looking to hold off Nastia Liukin to defend her AA title at the 2008 U.S. Gymnastics Championships in Boston next week.</em><br /><br /><br /><span style="color:#000000;">This year's Nationals are set to take place in Boston next week. Many bloggers, including myself, have been trying to showcase predictions to readers as to who will be on the USA Olympic team that goes for gold in Beijing. Though certain spots look to be sewn up, it is imperative that ALL the girls do what they're capable of at these Nationals and even more so at the Olympic Trials. As history has proven, someone who has looked to have a sure spot gets wiped up by another girl who steals the thunder out of nowhere. The title for all-around champion is of course the purpose of the entire event, but realistically speaking that isn't what you should be looking for at the Championships. Strong, consistent work and high scores on weak events for USA, like bars, can make or break any athlete's chances to go to the Olympics. Martha Karolyi, the head decision maker for the Olympic team is looking for toughness over anything. Toughness is imperative for the team selected for Beijing, with hostility and a formidable Chinese team meeting them upon their arrival.<br /></span><br /><br /><strong>Shawn Johnson</strong><br /><br /><br /><span style="color:#990000;">Overview: Shawn is likely planning on using Nationals as yet another competition for getting her upgrades consistent and landing her Amanar vault which she missed at the Scam Cup back in March. Shawn is looking to defend her title, but is no longer the new kid on the block that has nothing to lose like she was last year. It will likely be best for Shawn if she and Nastia split the duties for winning the AA, i.e. Shawn takes the gold here and Nastia places 1st at Olympic trials or vice verse. Winning both meets will likely backfire on Shawn due to the immense pressure that comes from being America's top gymnast.<br /><br /><br />Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Landing her Amanar vault in both days of competition. Martha Karolyi has admitted herself that she was stressing this upgrade on Shawn, and Martha K. needs to know if she can land it under pressure. Whether she is capable of landing this vault does not necessarily mean much for her apparent locked-up spot on the team, but for political sake it will help Shawn out a great deal in her quest for winning Olympic AA gold.<br /><br /><br />Potential Upgrades: Front Pike on beam (7.0 A), Tucked Full-in at end of routine (potential 6.5 A-score), and landing her Amanar successfully<br /><br /><br />Predictions: Reports were strong from the closed doors Karolyi camp meet just a few weeks ago. With some new upgrades and added pressure don't count on the nearly perfect meet she had last year, but still appears to have the upper hand over Nastia in terms of the combination of consistency, difficulty, and lack of deductions.</span><br /><br /><br /><strong>Nastia Liukin</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><br /><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Overview: Winning the AA title will be yet another boost to Liukin's confidence, after beating Shawn at the Scam Cup earlier this year. Upgrades Liukin will be performing remain uncertain, but the routines we will see Nastia perform at Nats will likely be the same as the ones she will be performing at the Games. Nastia would very much like to win bars and beam, the latter of which she failed to do at last year's Nationals. Her strengths on those events alone are enough to assure her a spot on the team.<br /><br /><br />Necessary Tasks to Get Done: International judges should be following these nationals and the upcoming U.S. Olympic Trials very closely, and for a boost in political scoring favor at the Olympics, Liukin would like an AA win here. Maintaining her immense skill on bars and beam while showing improvement on the power events will be most necessary on her quest to Olympic AA gold, and will look for a strong meet here to propel her confidence to a new level en route to Beijing.<br /><br /><br />Potential Upgrades: Double-Twisting Yurchenko (5.8 A), Connecting Tkatchev + Pak on UB (7.8 A), Triple Twist Dismount on beam (6.8 A)<br /><br /><br />Predictions: Whether Liukin will actually upgrade anything is sketchy, and perhaps not entirely necessary if doing so will cause inconsistency. Will likely need a fall from Shawn in order to win the AA, however, but it could happen with the added pressure on Shawn defending her title and the comparatively less pressure on Nastia. Winning bars is almost a given, but the fight for the balance beam title between Liukin, Johnson, and Alicia Sacramone will be interesting.</span><br /><br /><br /><strong>Alicia Sacramone</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><br /><span style="color:#ff6600;">Overview: Alicia showed improvement on beam (already a strong event for her) at the recent Karolyi International meet, showing a 16.125 (7.0 A) in AA finals. Alicia has no use contributing on USA's weakest event, bars, but her world-class ability on the other three make her almost lock for the squad. Alicia will look to showing two great beam efforts in the competition, which will thus assure the selection squad solely on looking for girls that can swing bars as opposed to back-ups on beam. This event can also be used as a testing ground for further upgrades on floor and vault.<br /><br /><br />Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Alicia will need to continue to prove her consistency and mental toughness to Martha K. and USAG. At last year's Championships Alicia delivered an excellent day two after a shaky night one. While Alicia doesn't need to have two excellent nights to get her on the team, she does need a good showing here for confidence in her first major meet since last year's Worlds.<br /><br /><br />Potential Upgrades: NBCOlympics hinted that Alicia is planning on competing an Amanar this summer, and we might see some upgrades on floor (piked double arabian/double-double/triple twist) though specifically what she will be upgrading, if anything, remains to be seen on that event.<br /><br /><br />Predictions: Alicia looked strong at the recent Karolyi meet and don't expect anything different at these Championships. However, an Amanar upgrade is unlikely until the Olympic Trials, if it is to ever show up. Upgrades on floor are probable, but consistency is likely Sacramone's top objective for this meet. Competing at home should be another tremendous boost for Alicia's confidence at this competition.<br /></span><br /><br /><strong>Shayla Worley</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><br /><span style="color:#993300;">Overview: Shayla's once sewn-up position is loosening by the minute, with reports of injury and also Chellsie Memmel and Ashley Priess' improvement on their specialty event, uneven bars, the same event Shayla excels at. (for more info see Shayla Worley: The New Hollie Vise? post) There have been several reports of back/hamstring problems dating back to the Scam Cup where Worley had a very lackluster meet. At top form, Shayla can medal individually in the AA, bars, beam, and even floor. It remains to be seen what condition she will be in, but should look to peak at the Trials if she is not currently at top form.<br /><br /><br />Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Medaling on bars and hitting two clean routines on that event is Shayla's no.1 priority for these Championships. Shayla's chances of making the team will be significantly weakened if Ashley, Chellsie, and Nastia all finish ahead of her on that event. Medaling on beam will also do well for Worley's Olympic chances, and even more so will a medal in the AA.<br /><br /><br />Potential Upgrades: Double-Twisting Yurchenko; injuries will likely prevent further upgrades at least for this meet.<br /><br /><br />Predictions: Shayla's current shape is unknown, having not competed in a major meet since Scam. Shayla has too much confidence to give up easily, but with Chellsie and Ashley back in the mix Shayla is going to have to prove herself more than ever, specifically on UB, to go to Beijing.<br /></span><br /><br /><strong>Samantha Peszek</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><br /><span style="color:#666600;">Overview: Samantha's improved confidence and skill has led her to being a serious AA medal podium threat next week. Having an excellent meet at the 2008 Scam Cup, Sam was shaky at the following Italy Grand Prix meet and thus brought back her known inconsistency. Showing consistency at these Championships and at Olympic Trials should be Sam's top priority. Sam should show increased difficulty on several events here, knowing her Olympic aspirations depend on it.<br /><br /><br />Necessary Tasks to Get Done: To show consistency while performing top level skills. Medaling in the AA will help Sam's chances out greatly, but Martha K. will be specifically looking for Sam to finish in the top three on vault and floor. Doing that would almost guarantee Sam a spot as the lead-off girl on those two events where USA needs to gain as much scoring ground as possible over China.<br /><br /><br />Potential Upgrades: Amanar (unlikely though-6.5 A), laidout double-double off bars (6.4 A), double arabian off beam (6.9 A), possible upgrades on floor but it remains to be seen as to what she will bring to Boston on that event.<br /><br /><br />Predictions: I am expecting Sam to have a good meet. Her vastly improved solidity at the Scam Cup should continue toward Nationals, it just remains to be seen if she can hit her upgrades and be consistent through both days of competition. Sam's strength on the power events is an asset, but her trying to be an AA gymnast will do the USA no favors if she sacrifices her strength there for improvement on events the team doesn't really need her on, especially bars.<br /></span><br /><br /><strong>Ivana Hong</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /></div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><div><br />Overview: Despite Ivana's commendable form and artistry, her lack of difficulty, amplitude, and consistency have meant the difference between medals for Ivana in the past. Much to every one's disappointment Ivana showed no big UB upgrades at the Karolyi meet; her start value was only a 6.3 there. Ivana appeared to be a better competitor at the Karolyi meet, winning the AA in a weak field. Despite the lack of competition, this win should give Ivana a much-needed boost of confidence toward Nationals. </div><div><br /><br />Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Prove to USAG and Martha K. that she has something viable to contribute to the team. Placing ahead of Sam P. to make top three on vault will be imperative for Hong's Olympic chances. Placing on beam, where she showed a 15.8 at the camp, can help as well. </div><div><br /><br />Potential Upgrades: None that I know of, though seeing a couple added skills on bars is possible<br /><br /></span><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Predictions: Hong should improve her consistency some from last year, but this means nothing if there are no individual medals to show for. Placing top three on vault is possible, but doing the same on another event, or in the AA, is unlikely</span>.</div><br /><br /><div><br /></div><br /><br /><p><strong>Chellsie Memmel</strong></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#6600cc;">Overview: Memmel is competing her first real meet since December 2007 when she competed at the Toyota Cup in Japan. Memmel had a cautious comeback meet at the Karolyi camp, but turned in an excellent 16.0 to win bars finals (6.9 A-score). This is .3 higher than Memmel's bars A-score prior to her shoulder injury at Worlds, and the second highest potential bars score in the country. Memmel will also look to have a strong AA case as well, having won medals at the Toyota Cup and the Olympic test event on beam and floor and showing a possible DTY on vault as well.</span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#6600cc;">Necessary Tasks to Get Done: With Liukin's strength Memmel is unlikely to win bars, but placing 2nd there will do great for her Olympic cause. Placing ahead of Sam P. on beam and/or floor would almost guarantee Memmel a spot on the Olympic team, but this won't be easy. Showing consistency and two hit routines on bars are Memmel's no.1 objectives at what will likely be her last Nationals.</span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#6600cc;">Potential Upgrades: Possibly getting back her DTY (5.8 A, hasn't competed it since '06 Worlds), adding a tenth or two on bars and getting back her full floor difficulty</span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#6600cc;">Prediction: Memmel competed with a few watered-down routines at the Karolyi meet, notably on vault and floor. Whether Memmel will go for her full difficulty here or save it for Olympic trials remains to be seen, but regardless Chellsie should have a strong competition in terms of consistency. Hitting all of her routines at both the Olympic test event and the Toyota Cup last year proves that Memmel is still as tough as they come.</span></p><strong><br /><br /><p><br />Jana Bieger</strong></p><br /><br /><p><span style="color:#009900;">Overview: Jana had a strong showing at the Pacific Rim Championships back in March, and should come to Nationals healthy and with renewed confidence. Two events, bars and floor, are where Jana can make the biggest contribution to the team. Jana will need to medal on least one of those events if Martha K. is going to seriously take her into consideration for making the Olympic team. </span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#009900;">Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Showing consistency is imperative for the former World AA silver medalist. Medals on bars and floor are necessary due to the fact that the USA is in need of good scores on those events especially. </span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#009900;">Potential Upgrades: Full-twisting double layout on floor; given all the injuries Jana has had lately it is unlikely we will see too many upgrades from the Pacific Rim to ensure that Jana remains healthy. However, the full-twisting double layout is a very valuable upgrade and viewers could very well see it in Boston.</span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#009900;">Prediction: Jana is generally scored favorably by USAG, despite poor form and artistry. However, Jana has no room for error at Nationals or Olympic Trials if she is to go to Beijing. A consistent full-twisting double layout could easily propel Jana to a top 3 finish on floor. However, a top 3 finish on bars is unlikely with Priess and Memmel back in the mix, nor are fans expecting Jana to medal in the AA.</span></p><br /><br /><p><strong><br />Bridget Sloan</strong></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#663366;">Overview: Bridget is unlikely to compete AA at Nationals due to recovery from knee surgery, which she had after sustaining an injury at the Italy Grand Prix meet back in March. However, Bridget has said that she has improved quite a bit on bars and that she has added two skills for Nationals, thus backing up rumors that she has a 6.7 A-score there. Bridget hasn't competed since December, and many will be keen on seeing what improvements she's made and whether she is needed on the Olympic team.</span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#663366;">Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Finishing top 3 on bars is essential if Sloan wants to go to Beijing. Her knee injury means she likely won't be competing floor at Nationals, her other strong event. Bridget plans on peaking at the Olympic Trials, which is probably a wise move. However, Bridget needs to be fully consistent with whatever apparatus she is competing at Nationals, especially uneven bars.</span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#663366;">Potential Upgrades: Two new skills on bars; an Indiana Star newspaper video showed Sloan training a layout full-in off UB.</span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#663366;">Prediction: Bridget and Jana make somewhat of a double-edged sword for the committee, with it looking like Bridget will be stronger than Jana on bars while the opposite will likely be true on floor. These two athletes have strengths on the two events USA needs, but with other girls looking to contribute on bars and floor as well it could mean game over for Bridget especially. However, Sloan's consistency is something that cannot be overlooked.</span></p><br /><br /><p><strong><br />Darling Hill</strong></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#666666;">Overview: Darling's much anticipated quest to make Olympic team really begins at these Nationals. Darling battled an injury at the Karolyi meet, scrapping vault and bars altogether. Darling's major contribution for the squad is on floor, where she mixes very difficult tumbling with quiet and calm dance. However, USAG will be wary to send Darling due to lack of international exposure and fear that the international judges will score this relative unknown harshly.</span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#666666;">Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Winning floor! This is a tall order, with Shawn and Alicia currently ranked #1 and #2 on floor after last year's Worlds. However, as I see it, this is the only way for Darling to make the team. Shoulder problems have hindered Darling's ability on vault and bars, the latter of which she would've also hoped to make a potential contribution on. Finishing 3rd on floor can keep Hill in the mix, but will likely still be passed over because of her lack of other contributions to the team.</span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#666666;">Potential Upgrades: N/A</span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#666666;">Prediction: Winning floor is unlikely, with possible upgrades to come from Johnson, Sacramone, Peszek, and Bieger. Medaling is possible, but if she fails to do so she is essentially saying goodbye to her Olympic aspirations. It is unclear whether we will see Hill on vault and uneven bars. However, even if she does, upgrades are unlikely with the shoulder problems she has been having. Like other current Olympic hopeful Ashley Priess and 2004 Olympian Annia Hatch, Hill's Olympic aspirations will come down to one event, one contribution that probably won't be enough.</span></p><br /><br /><p><strong><br />Ashley Priess</strong></p><br /><br /><p><span style="color:#339999;">Overview: Ashley makes a potentially stable, and needed, contribution on USA weakest event, the bars. Ashley posted 15.75 and 15.8 on that event at the Karolyi meet, while bars rival Shayla Worley only posts scores that big when she has a very good day, and those don't come often for her. Consistency is one of Priess' strengths, and if she brings that to Nationals she could be looked upon as a very serious contender for the Olympic team. </span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#339999;">Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Finish in the top 3, or even the top 2, on bars. Considerably outscoring Worley here will be necessary for Priess, because Worley contributes far more than Ashley on the other three events. Showing consistency is imperative, and may end up needing to rely on mistakes from Shayla Worley and/or Bridget Sloan to solidify herself as a needed commodity on just one event.</span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#339999;">Possible Upgrades: Ashley has a 6.6 A-score on bars, but showing with consistency with that routine may prompt her to upgrade her UB routine by another tenth or two. </span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#339999;">Prediction: I do actually expect Ashley to get 3rd on bars, ahead of Shayla, Bridget, and Jana. However, how much she can distance herself from the other three bars girls, especially Shayla, remains to be seen and could be the ultimate deciding factor in her quest to go to Beijing.</span></p><br /><br /><p><strong><br />Randy Stageberg</strong></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#996633;">Overview: Many might not know this girl; I didn't even feature her in my USA Olympic team outlook post. However, this dark horse brings tangible contributions to the team on both vault and floor. Stageberg competed a very solid DTY and had the highest floor score (15.3) at the recent U.S. Classic, and actually tied Sacramone for the floor exercise title at the 2006 USA's. Hardly an internationally seasoned competitor, but fans should think twice before eliminating her from the mix entirely.</span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#996633;">Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Randi needs to finish in the top three on vault and floor for any hope of going to Beijing. Stageberg needs to show excellent consistency at Nationals, even on her weak events, in order for her to be scored favorably as a reliable competitor. Randi is very talented, but is somewhat of a headcase (i.e. unreliable competitor) when the pressure of a meet builds. </span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#996633;">Possible Upgrades: N/A</span></p><br /><br /><p><br /><span style="color:#996633;">Prediction: Unlikely to go to Beijing, but Randi would actually be a serious contender for making the team if she had more experience, thus being allowed to prove that she is a reliable competitor. Inconsistency, lack of international exposure, and lack of political favor will likely be the undoing of Stageberg's Olympic bid, but Martha K. mentioned her in an Inside Gymnastics magazine article: "Randi Stageberg has a good floor routine." She's obviously done something right.</span></p><br /><br /><p><strong><br />Other Darkhorses Who Are Unlikely to Make the Team but You Never Know...</strong></p><p></p><p>Chelsea Davis (coached by '91 World AA champ Kim Zmeskal)</p><p>Mattie Larson</p><p>Corrie Lothrop</p><p>Ashley Stott</p><br /><br /><p></p><br /><br /><div></div><br /><br /><div><strong>Podium Predictions</strong></div><br /><p><strong>AA</strong></p><div><span style="color:#ffcc33;">Gold: Shawn Johnson</span></div><div><span style="color:#ffcc33;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#666666;"><br />Silver: Nastia Liukin</span></div><div><span style="color:#666666;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#993300;"><br />Bronze: Samantha Peszek</span></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><div><strong>VT</strong> (medals only given for competitors that compete two vaults, but here I am just listing the top three total scores on vault from both days of competition with Alicia Sacramone likely to win, being the only US girl to compete two strong vaults.</div><br /><div><span style="color:#ffcc33;">Gold: Alicia Sacramone</span></div><div><span style="color:#ffcc33;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#666666;"><br />#2: Shawn Johnson</span></div><div><span style="color:#666666;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#993300;"><br />#3: Samantha Peszek</span> (could be Ivana Hong if Peszek still competes her DTY)</div><div><strong></strong></div><div><strong></strong><br /><br /></div><div><strong>UB</strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#ffcc33;"><br />Gold: Nastia Liukin</span></div><div><span style="color:#ffcc33;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#666666;"><br />Silver: Chellsie Memmel</span></div><div><span style="color:#666666;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#993300;"><br />Bronze: Ashley Priess</span></div><div><strong></strong></div><div><strong></strong><br /><br /></div><div><strong>BB</strong></div><div><strong></strong></div><div><span style="color:#ffcc33;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#ffcc33;"><br />Gold: Shawn Johnson</span></div><div><span style="color:#ffcc33;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#666666;"><br />Silver: Nastia Liukin</span></div><div><span style="color:#666666;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#993300;"><br />Bronze: Alicia Sacramone</span></div><div><strong></strong></div><div><strong></strong><br /><br /></div><div><strong>FX</strong></div><div><strong></strong></div><div><span style="color:#ffcc33;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#ffcc33;"><br />Gold: Shawn Johnson</span></div><div><span style="color:#ffcc33;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#666666;"><br />Silver: Alicia Sacramone</span></div><div><span style="color:#666666;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#993300;"><br />Bronze: Jana Bieger</span></div><div></div><br /><div><span style="color:#000000;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#000000;">Next Post: Moscow World Cup Analysis</span></div><div></div><div><br /><br /></div><div>That is all.</div><br /><br /><div><br /></div><br /><br /><p></p><br /><br /><div><br /></div><br /><br /><p><br /><br /></p><br /><br /><div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /></div></div>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-36817641238099708342008-05-28T14:22:00.000-07:002008-12-09T15:03:34.673-08:00The NBC Commentators Who They STILL Haven't Gotten Rid Of<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixHz5s1_gKOI0h2ii1xlEd0-a7nXOhapjx06vbthbjD6CLXQFwLS8-Pyu_yDYiu9c0pVi9pzE-mpG_nKteUyQ-tNeRxBg8GL5hHB7EQXSspng1128rXsuDEQDNLwXnMpucSz0VXkhPn73A/s1600-h/nbc.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5205634735403556770" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixHz5s1_gKOI0h2ii1xlEd0-a7nXOhapjx06vbthbjD6CLXQFwLS8-Pyu_yDYiu9c0pVi9pzE-mpG_nKteUyQ-tNeRxBg8GL5hHB7EQXSspng1128rXsuDEQDNLwXnMpucSz0VXkhPn73A/s320/nbc.jpg" border="0" /></a><em> Above: Just because the three commentators of NBC are less than lovely doesn't mean you have to sacrifice watching the gymnastics competition at the Olympics altogether. This post is to beware readers of what to expect from the trio of Tim, Elfi, and Al at these summer's Olympic Games.</em><br /><br /><br /><div><span style="color:#666600;">If you live in the United States and are interested in following artistic gymnastics in the lead up and during the competition at this summer's Olympic Games, you will have to deal with what I have dubbed the <strong><span style="color:#000000;">Anything but Fab 3</span></strong> trio of Tim Daggett, Elfi Schlegel, and Al Trautwig. I have never been a fan of any of these commentators and things are unlikely to be different any summer. NBC doesn't bother explaining viewers actual technique and explanation of skills in the routines; instead pouring out all the drama in their exceptionally biased commentary. At least they have the decency to shut up during floor exercise, and with all the blabbing that the <strong><span style="color:#000000;">Anything but Fab 3</span></strong> does I will never understand why they don't say a word on this event. However, the <strong><span style="color:#000000;">Anything but Fab 3</span> </strong>shouldn't be as awful as to warrant viewers to mute their TV, but do look out for biased and inacurrate commentary. This post is not meaning to be a compilation of my disliking for the <strong><span style="color:#000000;">Anything but Fab 3,</span> </strong>it is merely intended for those who may have not heard these commentators before to be intelligent and informed as to what to believe, and not to believe, about the commentators' thoughts of the artistic gymnastics competition as this summer's Olympics.</span></div><br /><div><strong></strong></div><div><strong>Tim Daggett</strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#ff6600;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#ff6600;">Career Highlights: 1984 Olympic team gold medalist, 1984 Olympic pommel horse bronze medalist</span></div><br /><br /><div></div><div><span style="color:#ff6600;">Pros: Tim Daggett is articulate and intelligent with his commentary and is very knowledgeable as to why skills go wrong. Daggett avoids going all out with the political drama surrounding events, yet does make valid points about when a routine is overscored or underscored. </span></div><br /><br /><div><span style="color:#ff6600;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#ff6600;">Cons: Daggett is a relatively biased commentator towards the Americans and seldom goes into detail regarding the names of skills and poor form. Daggett has a very fast-paced commentary and is sometimes too quick to assume things, thus spoiling the competition in the event. He sometimes (what sounds like anyway) grunts to emphasize the difficulty of a skill, a perfect example being Alicia Sacramone's handspring laidout Rudi vault.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#ff6600;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#ff6600;">Outlook: Tim Daggett is the best gymnastics commentator NBC currently has, but that doesn't say much. Daggett has intelligent commentary but his biased remarks are often false. Beware of remarks such as the "USA women are easily the best in the world" or that "Shawn Johnson and Nastia Liukin will be the top two in the all-around." Daggett has quite a bit of knowledge about the USA team, but his knowledge regarding other world powers is sizably lacking.</span></div><br /><br /><div></div><div><strong>Elfi Schlegel</strong></div><br /><br /><div></div><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Career Highlights: 1978 Commonwealth Games gold medalist, 198o Pan American Games gold medalist</span></div><br /><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Pros: Elfi Schlegel is a very blunt commentator who is unafraid of bashing gymnasts she doesn't care for. She is a big promoter of drama in gymnastics meets and is very confident in her commentary.</span></div><br /><br /><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Cons: Schlegel defines the word biased by giving extremely generous commentary to the Americans and Canadians while being far tougher on the European nations. Elfi is quick to point out things that she doesn't like and sometimes goes overboard with her predictions of events . For example, Schlegel declared that it wasn't even a question that the USA team in 2004 was going to win gold, but the real question was by how much they would win by. In the end, Romania defeated USA for the gold and not surprisingly, Elfi didn't give any acknowledgment for her overly false and biased remark. </span></div><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><div></div><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"><br /><br />Outlook: You either love Elfi or you hate her, though it's safe to say most hate her. There is even a blog entitled <strong>Why I Don't Like Elfi Schlegel, </strong>and while the blog has nothing to do with Elfi it is the best blog title one could ask for. Elfi's biased commentary should get worse as the Olympics approach, and will no doubt be making early, and probably inaccurate, predictions for the U.S. to mostly win everything on the women's side. Beware of awkward, blunt, and inaccurate remarks from this commentator.</span></div><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#cc33cc;"><br /><br />Fun Fact: At the 2003 Worlds-team finals Elfi made a shocking remark to Alexandra Chevtchenko (Russia), saying she didn't expect her to make the team because of her severe lack of talent. Subsequently, Chevtchenko nailed her opening piked full-in. However, Chevtchenko followed up with two scary falls and for once, I would have to say that Elfi was right to call such a blunt remark.</span></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><div><strong>Al Trautwig</strong></div><br /><div><strong>The Gymnastics Commentator who knows NOTHING about Gymnastics</strong></div><div><strong></strong></div><div><strong></strong></div><div><span style="color:#339999;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#339999;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#339999;"><br /><br />Pros: N/A</span></div><div><span style="color:#339999;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#339999;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#339999;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#339999;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#339999;"><br /><br />Cons: Al Trautwig pretends to be an expert on gymnastics when he is hardly even a semi-casual viewer. He frequently alludes to baseball with gymnastics, when gymnastics diehards such as myself don't give a damn about baseball and want our limited gymnastics TV coverage to be about GYMNASTICS ONLY. Al is incredibly biased, even among U.S. gymnasts. At last year's Nationals Al, and really the entire <strong>Anything but Fab 3,</strong> were basically saying how Shawn Johnson is the best gymnast ever and how Nastia Liukin is so old and washed up. </span></div><div><span style="color:#339999;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#339999;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#339999;"><br /><br />Outlook: Al occasionally makes a valid, or humorous remark, but try your best to tune out everything he says this summer. His commentary is biased nonsense and probably hasn't even heard any of the international contenders at these Olympics. On the bright side Trautwig generally pronounces gymnasts' names accurately.</span></div><div><span style="color:#339999;"></span></div><div></div><div><span style="color:#339999;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#339999;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#339999;"><br /><br />Fun Fact: Nastia Liukin commented after winning the 2008 Scam Cup about how many people had ridden her off and she was looking to prove her naysayers wrong. Al commented, "I wonder who ever would've remarked anything badly about Nastia Liukin." HAHAHA You know that comment from Liukin was directed right at you, Al, just admit it. </span></div><br /><div></div><div><strong></strong></div><div><strong>Other Notes</strong></div><br /><ul><br /><li><span style="color:#993300;">The BBC and Australian commentators are far superior in my opinion; they don't build the drama to the point where it overshadows the actual gymnastics being done. I particularly like Mitch Fenner and Christine Still from BBC. They go in detail on gymnastics technique and explain why a skill goes right or wrong. They are biased for the Europeans, however, but still should provide great commentary of these Olympics which should eventually be found on Youtube. </span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#993300;">NBC better be armed with some good fluff pieces at these Games. I will hardly be able to stand the <strong>Anything but Fab 3, </strong>but I will be able to watch if fluff saves the day.</span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#993300;">Live commentary of team finals and AA finals for both the men and women will be interesting. Hopefully in AA finals NBC will consistently show us the top two groups of gymnasts, the women's side in particular should be a deep one in that event. </span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#993300;">If all else fails NBC better show us all eight competitors in each event final. This could actually come close to happening with NBC likely showing the majority of lesser viewed events online.</span></li></ul><br /><p>Next Post: 2008 U.S. Nationals preview-women</p><br /><p>That is all.</p><br /><div><br /></div><br /><div></div>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-20604250791086434962008-05-24T06:57:00.000-07:002008-05-24T08:14:54.751-07:00U.S. Classic Update<span style="color:#000099;"> Despite this being a low-key, unpublicized event, the senior women at the U.S. Classic yesterday evening drew a pretty good crowd at the Reliant Arena in Houston, Texas. This was actually the first gymnastics meet I've seen in person and I definitely had a lot of fun watching the girls. Many of these girls are more the NCAA types, not really having much budding potential to be successful as elites or having a realistic opportunity of going to Beijing. However, I am providing commentary with some of the gymnasts that competed last night from my point of view:</span><br /><br /><br /><br /><span style="color:#993300;">Ashley Stott- Sporting a neat green/yellow leotard, Ashley scored a 58.25 to win the AA title. She was sluggish on bars (14.2), but was the first up on beam and the most solid with a 14.95 there. She stepped out of bounds on a combination twisting pass but showed an excellent double arabian front (tucked) on floor. She closed the show with a solid Yurchenko double (slightly underscored 14.55). The only girl who looked like she was having any fun on floor, and a good competitor who just might be a great asset for the next quadrennium in either NCAA or elite. However, she has a long way to go to catch the big girls; Shawn Johnson posted a 61.875 to win her first World AA title.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#993300;"></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#993300;">Corrie Lothrop- Steady bars performance (14.7), but Corrie but took a scary fall off beam (13.7) on a side aerial/ff/layout step-out series. She closed the competition with great routines on floor (14.75) and vault (14.9). She seems to enjoy herself competing and also seems to have a good relationship with Kelli Hill, former coach of Dominique Dawes and Courtney Kupets. </span><br /><br /><span style="color:#993300;"></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#993300;">Randi Stageberg-Very solid Yurchenko double (14.8), but severely lacks difficulty on bars (14.15-5.4 A-score) and fell off the beam twice (13.45). Delivered a superb floor effort (15.3), complete with a very nice piked double arabian. Martha Karolyi mentioned Randi in an Inside Gymnastics magazine interview, for her "good floor routine." Her lack of experience on the international scene is unlikely to put her on the team, but Randi is still on the Beijing radar.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#993300;"></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#993300;">Mackenzie Caquatto- Good but over scored DTY (14.95) and decent UB work (14.5). Took a scary fall on her beam dismount (13.8) and somewhat weak on floor (14.15). Given somewhat generous scores throughout the entire event. Jade Barbosa must be her favorite gymnast because of Mackenzie's ability to look like she has about to burst into tears before and after a good routine and then all of a sudden smile during the floor exercise.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#993300;"></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#993300;">Christa Tanella- Despite a post on the blog <strong>Why I Don't Like Elfi Schlegel </strong>stating how much Christa Tanella sucks despite being coached by WOGA's finest, she's actually not that bad. In fact, she had some of the best form and artistry in the entire event. Tied for first on bars and placed 3rd on beam despite several wobbles. In contrast, her WOGA compatriot Catherine Nguyen who greeted Nastia Liukin after her near beam fall at 'o6 Nats when Valeri was no where to be found, did indeed suck last night. (two falls on beam, scratched bars, expression on floor looked like she wanted to set the arena on fire).</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#993300;"></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#993300;">Amber Trani-WTF? Obviously injured, she only did a layout Yurchenko! So much for my hopes of an Amanar. The Mrs. (Donna Strauss) had a stern talk with Amber after beam warm-ups and she opted to scratch beam in addition to bars. Amber looked good on floor until a fall on a double pike, where simultaneously the Mrs. grimaced to the ceiling in an almost "What has god done to me?" kind of gesture. However, the Mrs. did look somewhat happy throughout the entire event, but it was more of "I've given up/I should enjoy the ride while it lasts" happy. My question is: Why did they send Trani if they knew how out of shape she was? Jen Sey said in Chalked Up about how the Parkettes were "relieved" when Sey backed out of the 1987 World team camp due to an injury (she was actually severely out of shape) because of what would be much political embarrassment from a top club. When the announcement for who would go to Nationals came, I thought I heard Trani's name called but didn't see her with the other 11 girls who had competed and advanced to Nationals. If someone went to the event, please leave a comment to clarify this for me.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#6600cc;">Other Notes</span><br /><ul><li><span style="color:#6600cc;">Valeri Liukin looked happy throughout the entire event, even when gymnasts made mistakes. Nastia is obviously the only gymnast he cares about, and thus he is much more stern with her.</span></li><li><span style="color:#6600cc;">Alaina Johnson sported a very similar leo to that of Alicia Sacramone on day one of the 2006 Nationals.</span></li><li><span style="color:#6600cc;">Sarah Persinger had the exact same floor music that Alyssa Brown's used in her Scam cup routine which included the last pass fall of terror. </span></li></ul><p><span style="color:#6600cc;">I will be providing commentary for the men's event tomorrow and I will include my predictions for the men's Olympic team.</span> </p>That is all.MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-40501104478170997872008-05-23T11:46:00.000-07:002008-05-23T13:34:58.189-07:00Quick Updates From the Gymnastics World<ul><li><span style="color:#993300;">Paul Hamm has officially broken his hand and has withdrawn from day two from the U.S. Nationals. This is too bad, and Paul has also bailed out of the Olympic Trials. Night one proved that USAG NEEDS Paul, and also his twin brother Morgan, in Beijing. Paul had a 3.7 lead in the AA, which means he could have theoretically fallen four times in finals and could have still won. Individually, Paul placed first on high bar, floor (tie with Morgan), and pommel horse. Morgan also placed first on vault. Obviously Paul should still be a lock for the team even with his hand injury, and USAG IS SCREWED if he is not healthy for the Games. I would have to say Morgan will be on the team, too, providin he keeps his strength up on floor and vault and further improves his pommel horse and high bar sets.</span></li><li><span style="color:#993300;">A Chinese newspaper "revealed" that bars sensation He Kexin is 14, thus age-ineligible to go to the games. The article had several flaws, however, like Nastia Liukin winning three world beam titles (she's won two) and that an Olympic gymnastics team has five members (a team has six members). This provides further evidence that He Kexin is too young, but no hard proof. You would think China would be doing everything in their right mind to keep her supposed age-falsification a secret, so the fact that an admittedly unknowledgable writer let this slip is most surprising. Obviously, there is no mention of what age gymnasts must be to go the Olympic games in the article, but if this was indeed a careless error the author probably has no clue what kind of stir the number "14" is creating.</span></li><li><span style="color:#993300;">Daria Joura easily leads the women's AA prelims at the Australian Nationals with an excellent 61.6 score. These scores look to be a tad inflated, but that score would've gotten Daria silver at last year's Worlds. The top AA podium threats appear to be (as of now) Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, and Jiang Yuyuan. However, Daria is improving and could end up peaking at the best possible time. Joura was especially superb on floor, where she marked a 15.75 and stuck her new double layout cold. Lauren Mitchell had a disastrous routine on bars and a shaky beam routine to drop to 5th. Finals are still to come, where Mitchell will look to redeem herself and Dasha will look to blow away the field. </span></li><li><span style="color:#993300;">The Moscow World Cup will take place next week, and this is the last major international gymnastics meet prior to the Olympics. This will be an opportunity for Russia to showcase top-level gymnastics in hopes of gaining political ground on Romania for a bronze medal.</span></li><li><span style="color:#993300;">Speaking of Olympic bronze medal, Peggy Liddick the Australian equivalent of Martha Karolyi, said that the Australian team is in it to win the bronze medal. This is an entirely biased and unrealistic statement; Romania and Russia have greatly improved since last year's worlds and the judges will have a hard time favoring a team that finished 11th last year and has lost potential assets like Hollie Dykes and Chloe Sims. If there is going to be an upset team for the medals, I would bet my money on Italy assuming Vanessa Ferrari is in peak form for the Games.</span></li><li><span style="color:#993300;">I will be in attendance for the U.S. Classic Senior Women's competition tonight and the Senior Men's Championships Finals tomorrow evening. I will provide commentary for both events the day following each competition.</span></li></ul><p>That is all.</p><p></p>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-38906081869712597882008-05-20T14:48:00.000-07:002008-12-09T15:03:35.932-08:00Shayla Worley: The New Hollie Vise?<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPsUGBl99myA34yV8RXV6i2u1DV_v_kS9rSSCKuijVqkp3W3odBnM6ULBzLQWSOzMnSu0dOuq4oPHTaM2FERaD4nx0g_8bzQlsP0vSO-sdOGAt80iTjxQO599SGuxzmoe1-kye6FiYG_F_/s1600-h/worley23.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5202658167720368594" style="FLOAT: right; MARGIN: 0px 0px 10px 10px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPsUGBl99myA34yV8RXV6i2u1DV_v_kS9rSSCKuijVqkp3W3odBnM6ULBzLQWSOzMnSu0dOuq4oPHTaM2FERaD4nx0g_8bzQlsP0vSO-sdOGAt80iTjxQO599SGuxzmoe1-kye6FiYG_F_/s320/worley23.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUN2KgN6wKI2icBgkUEZTFMdog0AeTIwjrOiUX5capk3XmsQDle-13UwVs7gqTN_iz9yRPxSjv1uW5gIp24We-nbAMKA19iH4k4dn7_18JpeyX1xXA6uEFh7VkUXa-jA93RdF6e-q3rgOr/s1600-h/vise.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5202658176310303202" style="FLOAT: right; MARGIN: 0px 0px 10px 10px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUN2KgN6wKI2icBgkUEZTFMdog0AeTIwjrOiUX5capk3XmsQDle-13UwVs7gqTN_iz9yRPxSjv1uW5gIp24We-nbAMKA19iH4k4dn7_18JpeyX1xXA6uEFh7VkUXa-jA93RdF6e-q3rgOr/s320/vise.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">That, my friend, is not a good thing. Hollie Vise was given an adoring fluff piece by NBC at the 2000 International Team Championships. Then, Hollie was a 12 year-old girl fantasizing of making the 2004 Olympic Team while training her very hardest at WOGA, the same gym teammate Carly Patterson trained at, going on to win AA gold at the 2004 Olympics and where current nine-time world medalist Nastia Liukin trains. Long story short, it didn't happen. Hollie was strong in 2003, winning beam and placing 2nd AA at Nationals and winning gold with her team and on uneven bars at Worlds. However, a back injury slowed her 2004 efforts and didn't compete until the Olympic Trials. By this time she was just competing on her two best events, bars and beam. Judges were stingy with Vise's scores at the Oly Trials while locks such as Patterson, Courtney Kupets, and Courtney McCool were given the benefit of a doubt time and time again. Hollie fell of beam at the Karolyi camp meet and appeared to be off the team. However, in a decision that shocked many, Hollie was left off the team entirely, not even being chosen as an alternate. The team certainly would've used a healthy Vice in Athens, replacing Patterson's shaky UB effort and Kupets' injury on beam in team finals. The U.S. underestimated the need for good back-up UB/BB workers, and this was a job that Vise, or Chellsie Memmel, could've gotten done. </span><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><span style="color:#993300;">Now, four years later, reports have been swirling around (including mine) that Shayla will not compete in Beijing, <strong>Shock Horror, </strong>because of the widely rumored but unconfirmed injuries she has been suffering from and the resurgence of Chellsie Memmel and Ashley Priess' UB work<strong>.</strong> A blog called <strong>The Olympic Effect</strong> (which unfortunately I don't think its editor is still blogging) had a USA women's selection post outlook of its own back in January. In it, the editor basically is saying Shayla will be on the team due to her strength on all four events and undeniable political favor, saying things such as Worley "is one of Martha Karolyi's favorites" and that she could be a "formidable challenger for the Olympic AA crown." First of all:</span><br /><br /><br /><ul><br /><li><span style="color:#666666;">Martha Karolyi's supposed "favorites" are the Fab 3 (Shawn, Nastia, and A-Sac) because they bring home the most medals. Martha does like Shayla and favors her a bit, but I wouldn't say all that much over the other USA bubble girls. Martha has mellowed a bit since Athens and won't go to town with favoring gymnasts before the games. After all the team is being announced on July 20th, the LAST POSSIBLE DATE that the USOC will allow any Olympic teams to be announced. Martha will be considering EVERYTHING when it comes to making the squad and Shayla will not have everything Martha wants even if healthy.</span></li><br /><li><span style="color:#666666;">Shawn and Nastia are locks for the two U.S. AA final spots barring a major disaster. Shayla's DTY upgrade appears unlikely due to the injuries, her bars needs a bit of upgrading and her dismount NEEDS TO GO, standing Arabian needs to be abolished from her beam routine, and floor exercise lacks the raw power that we see from A-Sac/Shawn/Sam P.</span></li></ul><br /><br /><p><span style="color:#ff6600;"><strong>The Injury Report:</strong> <strong>Addicted2Gym </strong>reported that Shayla left the camp early because of back/hamstring issues. (remember that a teared hamstring was what kept her out of most of 2006). I am very sure that this is true, because Shayla did not compete in the Karolyi International meet with all the other girls who have only competed once or not at all this year. (Shayla has competed only once this year, competing very lackluster at Scam). Shayla was also passed over for BOTH the Italy meet and Pacific Rim when USA didn't have a full A-list team at either meet. There were many reports prior to the Scam Cup that Shayla was injured, yet still showed up at Madison Square Garden and competed nervously. Shayla likely was injured, but competed anyway just so she wouldn't piss off or concern Martha K. </span></p><br /><br /><p><span style="color:#cc33cc;"><strong>What does Shayla contribute to the team?</strong> Shayla can certainly contribute to the team, but to what extent is debatable. On vault, there is a possible DTY upgrade which she was planning on competing at the American Cup (she told this in an Inside Gymnastics interview) but instead competed a cleaner Yurchenko 1.5 twist at that event. A DTY, unless if done very well, is unnecessary with Shawn, A-Sac, and Sam P. likely candidates to compete vault in team finals. Uneven bars is her best contribution to the team, with a 6.7 A-score. Chellsie Memmel and Ashley Priess scored a high of 16.0 (6.9 A-score) and 15.8 (6.6 A-score) at the recent Karolyi meet. Bridget Sloan is said to have a 6.7 A-score as well, and all of this improvement from other bar workers has the potential to decrease Worley's chances of making the squad significantly, as this is her money event. Shayla is good here, but her inconsistent double front dismount which is also severely cowboyed is a hotbed for deduction. Shayla's very good on beam, but Martha should feel safe with the fab 3 competing potentially 16+ scores in team finals. On floor, Shayla's lack of difficulty and power make the national team staff to likely shy away from using her in a team final there.</span></p><br /><br /><p><span style="color:#666600;"><strong>Calling For Donations:</strong> Shayla publicly announced that she wanted all of her fans to donate money to enable all of her family to go to Beijing and see her go for the gold in person. People have been quick to point out that this is very premature, as theoretically we don't even know if Shayla will make the Olympic Trials yet. (though of course she will, even if injured) However, the team is announced July 20th, just 2.5 weeks away from the start of Olympic competition. This would be far too little time to get all of the money she would need to get ALL of her family to Beijing safe and sound. Shayla is perhaps being a little arrogant with this, perhaps already thinking that she will be on the Olympic team. But absolutely, if she wants to get money, it is best to start getting it now. My only question is: What will happen to the money if she doesn't make the team?</span></p><br /><br /><p><span style="color:#660000;"><strong>Crazy Coach:</strong> Jeff Wood is somewhat of a younger, American version of Bela Karolyi. He is a big bear of a man, he is very intense out on the floor, yet shows his weak spot by hiding behind the curtains during Shayla's beam routines. He also gives his big bear hugs, practically suffocating the stick-thin Worley in the process. I noticed Jeff Wood's demeanor get much more stern at the 2007 Nationals, despite Worley having a great competition and finishing 2nd AA. Jeff could be pushing Shayla through injury, which could prove extremely detrimental to her quest of going to Beijing. <strong>Difficulty plus Execution</strong> reports that Jeff Wood was extremely angry that Chellsie Memmel and Ashley Priess are surpassing Shayla's UB standards. Jeff needs to calm down, but it couldn't hurt to upgrade on bars for her sake of making the team and also for the sake of the USA team, unless of course she IS HURT. </span></p><br /><br /><p><strong><span style="color:#cc9933;">Final Thoughts</span></strong></p><br /><br /><p><span style="color:#cc9933;">More and more it is beginning to look like Shayla will be lucky to even be an alternate. As I was analyzing her contribution to the USA team, it really appears as though that UB is the only event which we need her on, and we don't even need her there if Chellsie and Ashley continue to improve on that apparatus. This is of course considering that Shawn, Nastia, A-Sac, and Sam P. are healthy and roaring to go at the arrival of the Games. However, if Chellsie gets the 5th spot on the team and the last spot comes to down to the bars specialists, i.e. Shayla and Ashley, I would actually pick Shayla. Ashley doesn't contribute much of anything besides bars and her start value (as of now) is .1 below Shayla's. The judges know Shayla a bit more and will likely score her a tad more generously than they will with Ashley. Shayla is a potential back-up on beam and vault if she has a good DTY. However, if Ashley beats Shayla on bars at both Nats/Oly Trials, they have to pick Ashley. Period. With all that said, Shayla's spot is in jeopardy. She has to deliver just like everyone else and MUST HIT all four bar routines a Nats/Oly Trials. Everyone considered Shayla a lock last year. However, now it is DO or DIE for Shayla. Shayla doesn't want to be another Hollie Vise, a talented performer who peaked at the wrong time and let an injury step in the way of her Olympic dream. Sadly, it could very well happen.</span></p>Totally Random Comment: Bela Karolyi lists one of his favorite things he and Martha like to do in Houston is going to the ballet. Houston Ballet is an excellent company, and I always feel honored to be dancing at its academy, where I am currently training.<br /><br /><br /><p><span style="color:#000000;">That is all.</span></p><br /><br /><p></p><br /><br /><p></p><br /><br /><p></p><br /><br /><p></p>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853910058498686654.post-16752193051325799282008-05-19T19:02:00.000-07:002008-12-09T15:03:36.115-08:00Was Chellsie Memmel's Injury Worth It?<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSuBboonHoIv0nrvCVOGpGqMdnmOCXyta5qwu9ZnCKCO7puclCjnceHsb01Vl5xN02pMyglzK8RgR1B8IMyD8P0lZuNkOhFvdv19ChMEQ69LbB9cly7HEYZUAOaXoVNQxOEyteNXSpvgma/s1600-h/Memmel23Anaheim500_Kopie.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5202294289501116866" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSuBboonHoIv0nrvCVOGpGqMdnmOCXyta5qwu9ZnCKCO7puclCjnceHsb01Vl5xN02pMyglzK8RgR1B8IMyD8P0lZuNkOhFvdv19ChMEQ69LbB9cly7HEYZUAOaXoVNQxOEyteNXSpvgma/s320/Memmel23Anaheim500_Kopie.jpg" border="0" /></a><em> Above: Chellsie winning her 2003 World title on Uneven Bars. Three years later, she substained a devastating shoulder injury at the 2006 Worlds. Can Chellsie fight back and be recovered in time to make the 2008 U.S. Olympic Team?</em><br /><div><br /></div><div><span style="color:#666600;">This is the question burning among many gymnastics fans: Was Chellsie Memmel's shoulder injury of doom and going on to compete with it at the 2006 World Championships-team finals worth all the pain and suffering that she has been through in the last year and a half? We will soon find out in about two months, when the U.S. Olympic Women's Gymnastics Team is officially announced at the Karolyi Ranch. As many of you probably know, a foot injury hindered Memmel's 2004 efforts and thus had to settle for an alternate position. It is widely considered by gymnastics fans that Memmel has stuck around another four years to make the Olympic Team, this time to actually compete and represent her country in Beijing. Chellsie's career has been filled with tremendous ups and downs:</span></div><div><br /><br /></div><div><span style="color:#993300;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#993300;">2003- An injured Chellsie has a sub par performance at the U.S. Nationals in her home state of Wisconsin. Passed over entirely for the World Championship team, she was given a lesser assignment to compete at the 2003 Pan American Games. By that time she was fully recovered and won the AA and UB golds at the Games. Meanwhile the U.S. was having a nightmare prior to the beginning of the World Championships in Anaheim. From Courtney Kupets' Achilles injury to Ashley Postell's flu to Annia Hatch's knee injury left the U.S. staff no choice but to call Chellsie over immediately from Santo Damingo to Anaheim for the World Championships. There, Chellsie turned in a stunning performance, <strong>LEADING</strong> the USA girls to a team gold and winning individual gold on the bars. With this incredible performance at such short notice Chellsie was considered a lock for the U.S. Olympic team set to go to Athens. </span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="color:#993300;"></span> </div><div><span style="color:#993300;">2004- Chellsie started off the Olympic year pretty strong with a 3rd place finish at the Scam Cup. However, disaster struck in April when Chellsie broke the metatarsal in her foot. This injury kept her out of Pacific Alliance Championships, Nationals, and Olympic Trials. Despite Chellsie's heroic effort in 2003, the selection committee was not persuaded to put her on the team with her only competing in one major meet that year. Chellsie later won the 2004 World Cup final on uneven bars after the games.</span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="color:#993300;"></span> </div><div><span style="color:#993300;">2005- After missing a potential first U.S. title to Nastia Liukin, Memmel was better than ever at the 2005 Worlds. There, she won the AA by .001 of a point and took silver on uneven bars and balance beam as well. Success here also prompted Memmel to stick around in hopes of finally making an Olympic team in 2008.</span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="color:#993300;"></span> </div><div><span style="color:#993300;">2006- Chellsie opened up the year with a tie at the Pacific Alliance Championships with Liukin. While training an overshoot on bars in practise Memmel injured her shoulder, but it didn't appear serious and came back to U.S. Nationals, finishing a solid 4th AA and hitting two clean bar sets despite only beginning to practice full bar routines one week prior to the competition. Chellsie still had shoulder problems by Worlds but due to ongoing pressure from Martha K. withdrawing was simply not an option. Chellsie was strong in preliminaries, qualifying 1st AA and also making bars and floor finals. USA trounced the field in preliminaries and the team was considered a shoo-in for the gold. However, Chellsie fell on uneven bars in team finals and aggravated her shoulder injury even further. Going on to compete beam and floor to ensure the silver medal for the U.S., the next day she couldn't lift her arm above her head.</span></div><div><br /><br /></div><div><span style="color:#993300;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#993300;">2007- Chellsie finally started competing at the last part of the year, winning bronze on beam and floor at the Olympic Test Event and winning gold on floor and silver on beam at the Toyota Cup in Japan. Chellsie was still struggling on once her strongest event, uneven bars.</span></div><div><br /><br /></div><div><span style="color:#993300;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#993300;">2008- <strong><span style="font-size:180%;">?</span></strong></span></div><div><br /><br /></div><div><span style="color:#993300;"></span></div><div><strong><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span></strong> </div><div><strong><span style="color:#6600cc;">M</span><span style="color:#6600cc;">y Thoughts on the Subject Matter</span></strong></div><div><br /><br /></div><div><span style="color:#6600cc;"></span></div><ul><li><span style="color:#6600cc;">Chellsie's father, Andy, commented that Chellsie finishing the competition at the 2006 Worlds team finals with a severe injury was "gutsy and stupid". Gutsy, yes. Stupid? Chellsie is a tough ass competitor and probably knew right when she injured her shoulder that no matter what the cost she had to finish and get a medal for the team. Chellsie not competing beam or floor would've meant using a girl that wouldn't have been at all prepared to compete; Natasha Kelley and Ashley Priess were unwisely sidelined from the team finals lineup entirely. This would've seriously put USA's medal chances at stake in a competition they should've easily won. Had Chellsie not finished the meet, she would be in Martha K.'s dog house for the rest of her career for what likely would've been a lost team medal for the U.S.</span></li><br /><br /><li><span style="color:#6600cc;">I hope this injury proves to be a blessing in disguise. Not competing in most of 2007 hopefully allowed Chellsie's body to rest somewhat and give her a renewed intensity for her quest to make the '08 Olympic team. Chellsie is not one of those girls that needed 2007 performances to make her case to Martha; she's done that already. For Chellsie, it is about proving that she is in shape and can contribute <strong>scores </strong>to USA, especially on uneven bars. </span></li><br /><br /><li><span style="color:#6600cc;">When Martha K. decides her Olympic team, she has to consider how the international judges would love to see Chellsie again. Chellsie has had strong political favor amongst the international judges at each of the three world championships she has competed in. Judges may not love Chellsie's form and artistry, but what they do love is her unwavering competitive spirit.</span></li><br /><br /><li><span style="color:#6600cc;">If Chellsie keeps up, or even improves upon, her 16.0 performance that she marked at the recent Karolyi International Meet, she is on the team even if it is just for bars. Martha K. can rely on Chellsie to hit and score well a hell of a lot more than she can rely on Shayla to do so, and plus Chellsie has the international recognition that Shayla doesn't have. </span></li><br /><br /><li><span style="color:#6600cc;">Chellsie is the toughest competitor out there. Period. Shawn Johnson won everything in sight in 2007, but could people rely on her to severely hurt her shoulder and finish her routine AND THEN go to beam and land on a punch front on one leg and STILL STAY ON. Oh yeah, and nail a floor routine on top of that. ALL of this Chellsie and Chellsie ONLY has done. </span></li><br /><br /><li><span style="color:#6600cc;">I, like mostly everybody else, is gunning for Chellsie Memmel to make the team. Please, Chellsie, just prove your undeniable competitive spirit one more time. </span></li></ul><div><br /><br /></div><p><span style="color:#000000;">That is all.</span></p>MRRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04622561143693687606noreply@blogger.com2