Drama, Gossip, Rumors and Final Thoughts Prior to Nationals

I was roaming around WWGYM today and found some very INTERESTING tidbits from Nationals, including some reports on the podium training sessions. As I have mentioned before, Nationals are incredibly important for all of the girls, especially the bubble girls that actually have a CHANCE at going to the Olympics. Without further ado:





Drama, Gossip, and Rumors (These are JUST rumors, so don't go to town thinking that they are all true)

• Chelsea Davis, the new dark horse who is coached by '91 World AA Champ Kim Zmeskal, has apparently sustained a knee injury and will not be competing any events besides bars. Knee injury or not, Davis is certainly not going to Beijing even with strong political favor with coach Kim Zmeskal being a former Karolyi star. Martha K. mentioning Chelsea as a dark horse was likely a psychological ploy to scare the other girls into working harder, and Martha K. has stated that we will still see Davis at trials (along with Sloan who isn't doing AA). Kim Zmeskal being Davis' coach likely prompted Martha K. to let this unknown go to trials, and this political favor could pay huge dividens if Davis presses onward to London 2012.



• There have been reports that a judge said that Jana Bieger will be the sacrificial lamb of these championships, i.e. the Natasha Kelley underscoring fiasco of last year. Apparently the judges will score all the other bubble girls highly provided if they hit their routines to their capable start values, i.e. hit routines and NO missed connections. There will be harsh penalties for missed handstands, missed connections, wobbles, etc. Also, expect huge marks from Liukin for hit bars and beam routines. Not sure if any of this info is legit but that is the scoop.



• There have also been reports that the equipment being used in Boston is that of Janseen-Fritsen, the same brand of equipment being used at the Games. However, the equipment is being disguised as the AAI equipment that is generally used in American meets. At Nationals look closely for hit routines on floor from Samantha Peszek, as there have been many reports that she can't tumble any where near as well when she is not competing on an AAI floor mat.



• Shayla Worley has been rumored to be withdrawing from Nationals altogether and to be petitioning to trials, though apparently she looked reasonably solid in the podium training.


• CONFIRMED: Ashley Priess has withdrawn and WILL NOT be petitioning to trials. The reasons to this are largely unknown, but ANGRY THOUGHTS are to come later in the post.

Podium Training Reports

Shawn- Landed her Amanar successfully, FX music is to the movie "August Rush," struggled a little with her switch leap/layout-back pike series on beam.

Nastia- Looked very strong, has not upgraded tkatchev + pak and I haven't heard anything about a DTY or triple twist dismount off BB either.

Chellsie- Excellent UB work, apparently trying to get a double front 1/2 dismount (though this isn't any more valuable than a double front). Landed her piked double Arabian and looked good on beam minus one fall on her piked barani. Looked shaky with her yurchenko 1.5, however.

Sam- Inconsistency with DTY (!) and inconsistency with 2.5 twist + layout front full, but has showed strong double-doubles and a 1.5 twist through to double pike upgrade. Looked good on bars and beam, but apparently hasn't showed her planned double/double dismount off UB.

Shayla- Looking out of shape, apparently she is suffering from a back injury. Did some individual skills on bars and had a couple good routines on beam but showed a bunch of missed yurchenko 1.5's. Whether she will even be even competing tonight remains uncertain, but if she does continue she will likely stick to just doing bars and beam.

Alicia- Hasn't shown anything but timers on vault, but was rock solid on beam and has the EXACT same floor music/choreography/tumbling. Hopefully she has been working on a couple upgrades for trials; the U.S. needs them.

Ivana- Missed handstands and tkatchev is STILL low on UB (stuck her full-in dismount, though). Good DTY's, planning a double front upgrade on floor but has been struggling with it.

Bridget- Likely only competing bars and beam, but looked especially solid on bars. Showing a good layout full-in dismount, and Ashley's withdrawal opens a huge door for Bridget to make the team.

Jana- Have surprisingly heard very little about.

Thoughts On Ashley Priess' Withdrawl and How It Changes the Selection Landscape

It is unclear whether Priess' retirement has anything to do with an injury (though there have been rumors of back issues), she came to one training in session in Boston and looked OK and all of a sudden just vanished. I wonder if Priess was simply afraid or unwilling to go through the selection process, or felt she wouldn't be able to deliver a strong performance as she hasn't competed at a major meet since 2006 Worlds. But if Ashley's decision was based on not believing she was useful enough to make the team, than she was very unwise to bow out of the race. Scores of 15.75 and 15.8 on bars at the Karolyi International meet, though likely a bit inflated, are scores that the U.S. would like to get their hands on for a lead-off bar worker. Martha K. has stated how CRUCIAL performances on bars will be when determining the Olympic team. Ashley being sent for bars only would also provide strong scoring from judges who would be persuaded to score her favorably for being good enough to be on the current world champion team for just one event. I was actually going to go as far as predicting that if Ashley hit her routines at Nats/Oly Trials with scores like those at the camp they would pick her over Worley, Sloan, Bieger, and Hong. However, I suppose I should just look at the subject matter this way: Bowing out of the Olympic selection marathon means that she wouldn't have been physically or mentally ready to go to the Olympics even if she had gone for it. As for the team, I think that Chellsie Memmel has joined the Fab 3 as locks for the team. However, I wouldn't say Samantha Peszek is a lock YET. The last two spots will obviously come down to a 3rd bar worker and a 3rd vault/floor worker.

Here is a breakdown of team finals spots look to be sewn up assuming Shawn, Nastia, A-Sac are all on the team (Chellsie is not officially a lock until she has competed well at these Nationals). Tier A represents those that are legitimate uses in a team final. Tier B represents those that have potential to contribute on this event but have not shown competitive readiness on that event as of late or is not an experienced competitor. Tier C represents those that are needed only in an emergency. This "contest" includes everyone besides Johnson, Liukin, and Sacramone. Someone who is not granted status in any of the tiers will not have any chance of contributing on the respective piece of apparatus in a team final.

Points Awarded:

Tier A (VT/BB)-3 Tier A (FX)- 4 Tier A (UB)-5

Tier B (VT/BB)-2 Tier B (FX)-2.5 Tier B (UB)-3.0

Tier C (VT/BB)-1 Tier C (FX)-1 Tier C (UB)-1.5

Vault: Sacramone, Johnson, ?

Tier A: Hong, Peszek

Tier B: Olivia Courtney, Mackenzie Caquatto (top U.S. Classic vault mark), Stageberg

Tier C: Memmel, Worley, Ashley Stott, Hill, Sloan, Corrie Lothrop, Bieger, Larson, Trani, Brittany Ranzy

Uneven Bars: Liukin, ?, ?

Tier A: Memmel, Sloan, Worley

Tier B: Bieger

Tier C: Hong, Peszek

Balance Beam: Johnson, Liukin, Sacramone

Tier A: Memmel

Tier B: Peszek, Worley, Bieger

Tier C: Hong

Floor Exercise: Johnson, Sacramone, ?

Tier A: Memmel, Peszek, Hill, Bieger, Sloan

Tier B: Larson, Stageberg

Tier C: Hong, Worley, Courtney

The Results: Remaining Three Spots on the Team

Memmel=13 points

Peszek=10.5 points

Sloan= 10.5 points

Alternates (I believe only two alternates will be selected, but I have listed the next top 3)

Bieger= 10 points

Worley=9.5 points

Hong= 6.5 points

While the points I have listed theoretically indicate that Sloan and Peszek would get the last two spots with Bieger and Worley as the two alternates, these points are based on if Shayla is healthy and ready to go, specifically the bars. Hong can actually get on the team if she finishes ahead of Peszek on vault at both Nationals and Olympic Trials. Anything less than that and she is an alternate at best. Jana Bieger is unlikely to be on the team even if she is in good form, because she is PERFECT alternate material. If a girl is to get injured Jana could potentially fill in on any event, especially on bars and/or floor, but wouldn't contribute any valuable scores that the U.S. doesn't already have. Worley is the wild card in all of this madness. If she can gut it out and have UB scores worthy of a top 3 finish at the Olympic Trials (especially) where she will hopefully be healthier, than she probably could go. But if Shayla performs lackluster or doesn't compete at all in Boston (which seems likely), they will still let her go to trials but in that scenario I think Bridget has actually got herself a ticket to go to Beijing. Sam P. has good political favor, and if the rumors of Bieger being scored harshly hold true Peszek should be going. Peszek isn't of such great use to the team unless she can magically pull out an Amanar or a 6.4/6.5 A-score on floor, with Memmel looking to contribute on FX as well.

The drama begins tonight at 7:00 P.M. in Boston.

Next Post: Commentary on Day 1 of Nats to come tomorrow.

That is all.

Could Chellsie Memmel Be One of the Top Two U.S. AA'ers

Above: Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, and Chellsie Memmel are all capable of being an Olympic AA medalist at top form. But only two of these three gymnasts can even qualify to AA finals, and Chellsie Memmel is looking to close in on the hold Shawn and Nastia have on the two U.S. Olympic AA spots.

This question poked into my head when I saw an article about Memmel in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel analyzing her routines and physical condition in preparation for this week's U.S. Nationals. In it I saw some very promising upgrades on Memmel's part that if done successfully will most certainly get her on the Olympic team. But if everything goes right you could see Memmel not only qualifying to Olympic AA finals but also contending for an AA medal. I will go ahead and compare potential start values and execution scores with you all between Chellsie Memmel, Nastia Liukin, and Shawn Johnson.

Vault

Johnson: Yurchenko 2.5 twist (6.5 A)

Liukin: Potential Yurchenko double (5.8 A)

Memmel: Yurchenko double (5.8 A)-Note: Does not plan on using this vault until Olympic Trials

Johnson will likely be landing her Amanar vault with consistency, and thus I will give her about a 15.95 for that. Memmel and Liukin are question marks on this event, with Liukin apparently having problems with her yurchenko 1.5 meet at the recent camp meet and thus making a DTY questionable. Memmel admitted that vault is currently her hardest event to master consistency but still does intend on getting her DTY ready for Trials. I will give 14.9 to both Liukin and Memmel here if they are capable of hitting this vault.

Uneven Bars

Johnson: 6.3 A-score

Liukin: 7.7 A-score

Memmel: Potential 7.2 A-score (6.9 thus far)

Johnson will fall behind Memmel and Liukin especially on this event. Johnson's consistency and good execution, however, will keep her in there with an estimated 15.45. Memmel will likely stick with her 6.9 routine at these championships and wait to bump it up to 7.2 at the trials. A hit routine with a 7.2 A-score should give Memmel around a 16.3. Liukin has had some trouble with her 7.7 A-score this year, but has had time to get more consistency here and a clean routine here should garner her around a 16.9.

Balance Beam

Johnson: 7.0 A-score

Liukin: 6.6 A-score (6.8 with triple twist dismount)

Memmel: Potentially 6.9 A-score (6.7 at the camp meet)

Johnson earned execution marks in the 9.4 range on beam at the World Championship prelims even with a few wobbles (the execution scores were generous throughout the entire preliminary competition on this event), so with a 7.0 A-score I would give her a 16.4 here. Liukin has been looking excellent on this event this year, but I find it unlikely that we will see both the DTY and triple twist in her repertoire. Because I gave her a score for a DTY earlier, I will give her a 16.1 here assuming it is out of a 6.6 start value. Memmel is definitely the wild card here. Her maximum difficulty in the past was a 6.7, but a .2 upgrade here will further add potential to the beam line-up at the Olympics and will further put pressure on the Fab 3 (Shawn, Nastia, and A-Sac) to prove that they deserve spots in beam finals and being the three girls competing beam in team finals. Relatively poor form and artistry has hurt Memmel's scores here a bit in the past, so I will give her a 15.9 with a cleanly hit routine with that start value.

Floor Exercise

Johnson: 6.4/6.5 A-score depending on whether she includes full-in at end of routine

Liukin: 6.2 A-score

Memmel: 6.2 A-score (with piked double Arabian)

Johnson has the biggest potential for a high score on this event, and should mark around a 15.65 with a clean routine with the upgrades in her routine. Liukin has form issues on some of her tumbling and is inconsistent, but has the potential to score around 15 here. Memmel's artistry is lacking on this event, but the international judges have scored Memmel very favorably here in the past. With a piked double Arabian here, she should have about a 15.35 on this event.

A-score totals (With what we know gymnasts are planning)

Shawn Johnson: 26.2 (6.5, 6.3, 7.0, 6.4)

Nastia Liukin: 26.0 (5.5, 7.7, 6.6, 6.2)

Chellsie Memmel: 25.5 (5.5, 6.9, 6.9, 6.2)

With Possible Upgrades

Shawn Johnson: 26.3 (6.5 on FX)

Nastia Liukin: 26.5 (5.8 on VT, 6.8 on BB)

Chellsie Memmel: 26.1 (5.8 on VT, 7.2 on UB)

Scores that I predicted

Shawn Johnson: 15.95, 15.45, 16.4, 15.65= 63.45

Nastia Liukin: 14.9, 16.9, 16.1, 15.0= 62.9

Chellsie Memmel: 14.9, 16.3, 15.9, 15.35=62.45

Though Memmel lags behind Johnson and Liukin in terms of these scores, the scores I put in are those that the gymnasts could get if they hit everything perfectly. Memmel is a more experienced and reliable gymnast than both Johnson and Liukin, so don't be super surprised if she gets into AA finals. All three of these girls have good reputations and should all be given favorable scores when competing. Chellsie's upgrades on bars, beam, and floor and her competitive nature should get her on the Olympic team provided she will peak at the right time. However, the major question will be if Martha K. allows Chellsie to compete AA in prelims or if Chellsie will be encouraged on polishing up her other three events for the good of the team. Answers to these questions and more will begin to be found at the U.S. Nationals beginning this Thursday.

What Memmel's Upgrades Potentially Mean for the Remainder of the U.S. Bubble Girls

Chellsie Memmel having a potential 7.2 A-score on bars, 6.9 A-score on beam, and 6.2 on floor almost make her a lock for the team in my opinion (providing she HITS these routines at these Nationals). Chellsie's strength on UB, BB, and FX will put particularly added emphasis on the fight for 3rd place on bars between Shayla Worley (good international reputation/scoring potential), Ashley Priess (good execution/consistency), Bridget Sloan (upgrades/cool competitor), and Jana Bieger (aggressive worker/internationally seasoned). With Johnson, Liukin, Sacramone, and possibly Memmel being locks and a need for a bars specialist, this leaves just one more spot. Samantha Peszek is the likely candidate with potential for high A-scores on vault and floor and improved confidence and consistency, but don't be shocked if another girl sneaks into the mix because of a needed strength for the team.

I still believe that Shawn and Nastia will be the two U.S. AA finalists at the Games, but what I was trying to convey in my post was that Chellsie could end up peaking at the right time and could quietly sneak into AA finals if either Shawn or Nastia has a major error.

That is all.

Tribute to Shawn Johnson

I started following gymnastics avidly during 2004 and the build up to the Olympics. And I kept hearing the name Carly Patterson over and over again. While the NBC commentators would salivate over her calm and light beam work, Patterson's lack of spark and somewhat arrogant personality turned me off. By the time the Olympics rolled around, Patterson was being touted as America's best hope for Olympic AA gold, but with the two Courtneys in tow she wasn't their only hope. But in Athens, Patterson clearly was in the best shape to win it all. After a shaky team finals performance, I wanted the Russian bitchface Svetlana Khorkina to win the Olympic AA gold. Even though Khorkina posed in Playboy, even though she often showed unsportsmanlike conduct, I wanted the dedicated Russian beauty to win. But on that night, athlete triumphed over artist, the time would be right for Patterson. Or would it? Patterson fell as quickly in the media spotlight as she had arrived, and after being on the Wheaties box, attention would not be forthcoming. We will still be looking for the next Mary Lou, not the next Carly, even though Patterson's accomplishment of winning in a non-boycotted competition and on foreign soil do outshine Retton's accomplishments on paper.

With Carly not living up to her role as the next great American gymnastics superstar, I was eagerly awaiting who would be the darling of the 2008 Games. I found Nastia Liukin to be a gorgeous gymnast with enthralling polish and flexibility, but her personality made it seen as though she was never enjoying herself out on the floor. I was shocked to find out that Vanessa Ferrari won the World Championship AA crown with a fall, and though I have since warmed up to Ferrari I almost stopped watching gymnastics entirely.

The 2007 American Cup had arrived, and immediately the commentators were announcing a young 15 year-old girl by the name Shawn Johnson as the next great thing of gymnastics. I had never even heard of her, but by the second she mounted bars I was transfixed. Lovely form, good releases, and out of nowhere popped out a laidout double-double dismount. When NBC showed a fluff piece of her, she was instantly my favorite. A humble, down-to-earth, but intelligent and mature personality was shown by this incredible gymnast that shock horror, goes to a real school and trains less than 30 hours a week. Despite a fall on beam Shawn's incredible skill, great technique, and an infectious smile made me think that she was the next great hope for gymnastics. Shawn's humble and joyous attitude made me fall in love with gymnastics all over again; even a new code of points couldn't change that.

As Shawn won everything in 2007, I was happy but worried. The media's intense interest in Shawn after her World AA win was arguably more than that of Kim Zmeskal, and Shawn would have to carry that throughout build-up to the Olympics. And also the fact that Lilia Podkopayeva (UKR) was the only gymnast in the last eight Olympics to defend her World AA crown at the Olympics. But if anyone can do it, Shawn can. Her genuine love of gymnastics and of life will hopefully continue to outshine the pressure of being the world's best gymnast. And more than her great skill and all of what she has done to make the U.S. team more successful, Shawn's love for gymnastics and gracious acceptance of victory or defeat are my favorite things about her. OK, yes she says "It's an honor" more times than China has people, I understand. But regardless of whether she wins Olympic AA gold, her natural joy for the sport of gymnastics and of life and her always rooting for the U.S. team and for others to do well makes me want Shawn to be successful, to make herself proud of what she has done.

That is all.

2008 U.S. Nationals Preview

2008 U.S. National Championships-Women

Polish101 Preview

Above: Shawn Johnson is looking to hold off Nastia Liukin to defend her AA title at the 2008 U.S. Gymnastics Championships in Boston next week.


This year's Nationals are set to take place in Boston next week. Many bloggers, including myself, have been trying to showcase predictions to readers as to who will be on the USA Olympic team that goes for gold in Beijing. Though certain spots look to be sewn up, it is imperative that ALL the girls do what they're capable of at these Nationals and even more so at the Olympic Trials. As history has proven, someone who has looked to have a sure spot gets wiped up by another girl who steals the thunder out of nowhere. The title for all-around champion is of course the purpose of the entire event, but realistically speaking that isn't what you should be looking for at the Championships. Strong, consistent work and high scores on weak events for USA, like bars, can make or break any athlete's chances to go to the Olympics. Martha Karolyi, the head decision maker for the Olympic team is looking for toughness over anything. Toughness is imperative for the team selected for Beijing, with hostility and a formidable Chinese team meeting them upon their arrival.


Shawn Johnson


Overview: Shawn is likely planning on using Nationals as yet another competition for getting her upgrades consistent and landing her Amanar vault which she missed at the Scam Cup back in March. Shawn is looking to defend her title, but is no longer the new kid on the block that has nothing to lose like she was last year. It will likely be best for Shawn if she and Nastia split the duties for winning the AA, i.e. Shawn takes the gold here and Nastia places 1st at Olympic trials or vice verse. Winning both meets will likely backfire on Shawn due to the immense pressure that comes from being America's top gymnast.


Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Landing her Amanar vault in both days of competition. Martha Karolyi has admitted herself that she was stressing this upgrade on Shawn, and Martha K. needs to know if she can land it under pressure. Whether she is capable of landing this vault does not necessarily mean much for her apparent locked-up spot on the team, but for political sake it will help Shawn out a great deal in her quest for winning Olympic AA gold.


Potential Upgrades: Front Pike on beam (7.0 A), Tucked Full-in at end of routine (potential 6.5 A-score), and landing her Amanar successfully


Predictions: Reports were strong from the closed doors Karolyi camp meet just a few weeks ago. With some new upgrades and added pressure don't count on the nearly perfect meet she had last year, but still appears to have the upper hand over Nastia in terms of the combination of consistency, difficulty, and lack of deductions.


Nastia Liukin


Overview: Winning the AA title will be yet another boost to Liukin's confidence, after beating Shawn at the Scam Cup earlier this year. Upgrades Liukin will be performing remain uncertain, but the routines we will see Nastia perform at Nats will likely be the same as the ones she will be performing at the Games. Nastia would very much like to win bars and beam, the latter of which she failed to do at last year's Nationals. Her strengths on those events alone are enough to assure her a spot on the team.


Necessary Tasks to Get Done: International judges should be following these nationals and the upcoming U.S. Olympic Trials very closely, and for a boost in political scoring favor at the Olympics, Liukin would like an AA win here. Maintaining her immense skill on bars and beam while showing improvement on the power events will be most necessary on her quest to Olympic AA gold, and will look for a strong meet here to propel her confidence to a new level en route to Beijing.


Potential Upgrades: Double-Twisting Yurchenko (5.8 A), Connecting Tkatchev + Pak on UB (7.8 A), Triple Twist Dismount on beam (6.8 A)


Predictions: Whether Liukin will actually upgrade anything is sketchy, and perhaps not entirely necessary if doing so will cause inconsistency. Will likely need a fall from Shawn in order to win the AA, however, but it could happen with the added pressure on Shawn defending her title and the comparatively less pressure on Nastia. Winning bars is almost a given, but the fight for the balance beam title between Liukin, Johnson, and Alicia Sacramone will be interesting.


Alicia Sacramone


Overview: Alicia showed improvement on beam (already a strong event for her) at the recent Karolyi International meet, showing a 16.125 (7.0 A) in AA finals. Alicia has no use contributing on USA's weakest event, bars, but her world-class ability on the other three make her almost lock for the squad. Alicia will look to showing two great beam efforts in the competition, which will thus assure the selection squad solely on looking for girls that can swing bars as opposed to back-ups on beam. This event can also be used as a testing ground for further upgrades on floor and vault.


Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Alicia will need to continue to prove her consistency and mental toughness to Martha K. and USAG. At last year's Championships Alicia delivered an excellent day two after a shaky night one. While Alicia doesn't need to have two excellent nights to get her on the team, she does need a good showing here for confidence in her first major meet since last year's Worlds.


Potential Upgrades: NBCOlympics hinted that Alicia is planning on competing an Amanar this summer, and we might see some upgrades on floor (piked double arabian/double-double/triple twist) though specifically what she will be upgrading, if anything, remains to be seen on that event.


Predictions: Alicia looked strong at the recent Karolyi meet and don't expect anything different at these Championships. However, an Amanar upgrade is unlikely until the Olympic Trials, if it is to ever show up. Upgrades on floor are probable, but consistency is likely Sacramone's top objective for this meet. Competing at home should be another tremendous boost for Alicia's confidence at this competition.


Shayla Worley


Overview: Shayla's once sewn-up position is loosening by the minute, with reports of injury and also Chellsie Memmel and Ashley Priess' improvement on their specialty event, uneven bars, the same event Shayla excels at. (for more info see Shayla Worley: The New Hollie Vise? post) There have been several reports of back/hamstring problems dating back to the Scam Cup where Worley had a very lackluster meet. At top form, Shayla can medal individually in the AA, bars, beam, and even floor. It remains to be seen what condition she will be in, but should look to peak at the Trials if she is not currently at top form.


Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Medaling on bars and hitting two clean routines on that event is Shayla's no.1 priority for these Championships. Shayla's chances of making the team will be significantly weakened if Ashley, Chellsie, and Nastia all finish ahead of her on that event. Medaling on beam will also do well for Worley's Olympic chances, and even more so will a medal in the AA.


Potential Upgrades: Double-Twisting Yurchenko; injuries will likely prevent further upgrades at least for this meet.


Predictions: Shayla's current shape is unknown, having not competed in a major meet since Scam. Shayla has too much confidence to give up easily, but with Chellsie and Ashley back in the mix Shayla is going to have to prove herself more than ever, specifically on UB, to go to Beijing.


Samantha Peszek


Overview: Samantha's improved confidence and skill has led her to being a serious AA medal podium threat next week. Having an excellent meet at the 2008 Scam Cup, Sam was shaky at the following Italy Grand Prix meet and thus brought back her known inconsistency. Showing consistency at these Championships and at Olympic Trials should be Sam's top priority. Sam should show increased difficulty on several events here, knowing her Olympic aspirations depend on it.


Necessary Tasks to Get Done: To show consistency while performing top level skills. Medaling in the AA will help Sam's chances out greatly, but Martha K. will be specifically looking for Sam to finish in the top three on vault and floor. Doing that would almost guarantee Sam a spot as the lead-off girl on those two events where USA needs to gain as much scoring ground as possible over China.


Potential Upgrades: Amanar (unlikely though-6.5 A), laidout double-double off bars (6.4 A), double arabian off beam (6.9 A), possible upgrades on floor but it remains to be seen as to what she will bring to Boston on that event.


Predictions: I am expecting Sam to have a good meet. Her vastly improved solidity at the Scam Cup should continue toward Nationals, it just remains to be seen if she can hit her upgrades and be consistent through both days of competition. Sam's strength on the power events is an asset, but her trying to be an AA gymnast will do the USA no favors if she sacrifices her strength there for improvement on events the team doesn't really need her on, especially bars.


Ivana Hong

Overview: Despite Ivana's commendable form and artistry, her lack of difficulty, amplitude, and consistency have meant the difference between medals for Ivana in the past. Much to every one's disappointment Ivana showed no big UB upgrades at the Karolyi meet; her start value was only a 6.3 there. Ivana appeared to be a better competitor at the Karolyi meet, winning the AA in a weak field. Despite the lack of competition, this win should give Ivana a much-needed boost of confidence toward Nationals.

Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Prove to USAG and Martha K. that she has something viable to contribute to the team. Placing ahead of Sam P. to make top three on vault will be imperative for Hong's Olympic chances. Placing on beam, where she showed a 15.8 at the camp, can help as well.

Potential Upgrades: None that I know of, though seeing a couple added skills on bars is possible

Predictions: Hong should improve her consistency some from last year, but this means nothing if there are no individual medals to show for. Placing top three on vault is possible, but doing the same on another event, or in the AA, is unlikely.

Chellsie Memmel

Overview: Memmel is competing her first real meet since December 2007 when she competed at the Toyota Cup in Japan. Memmel had a cautious comeback meet at the Karolyi camp, but turned in an excellent 16.0 to win bars finals (6.9 A-score). This is .3 higher than Memmel's bars A-score prior to her shoulder injury at Worlds, and the second highest potential bars score in the country. Memmel will also look to have a strong AA case as well, having won medals at the Toyota Cup and the Olympic test event on beam and floor and showing a possible DTY on vault as well.

Necessary Tasks to Get Done: With Liukin's strength Memmel is unlikely to win bars, but placing 2nd there will do great for her Olympic cause. Placing ahead of Sam P. on beam and/or floor would almost guarantee Memmel a spot on the Olympic team, but this won't be easy. Showing consistency and two hit routines on bars are Memmel's no.1 objectives at what will likely be her last Nationals.

Potential Upgrades: Possibly getting back her DTY (5.8 A, hasn't competed it since '06 Worlds), adding a tenth or two on bars and getting back her full floor difficulty

Prediction: Memmel competed with a few watered-down routines at the Karolyi meet, notably on vault and floor. Whether Memmel will go for her full difficulty here or save it for Olympic trials remains to be seen, but regardless Chellsie should have a strong competition in terms of consistency. Hitting all of her routines at both the Olympic test event and the Toyota Cup last year proves that Memmel is still as tough as they come.

Jana Bieger

Overview: Jana had a strong showing at the Pacific Rim Championships back in March, and should come to Nationals healthy and with renewed confidence. Two events, bars and floor, are where Jana can make the biggest contribution to the team. Jana will need to medal on least one of those events if Martha K. is going to seriously take her into consideration for making the Olympic team.

Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Showing consistency is imperative for the former World AA silver medalist. Medals on bars and floor are necessary due to the fact that the USA is in need of good scores on those events especially.

Potential Upgrades: Full-twisting double layout on floor; given all the injuries Jana has had lately it is unlikely we will see too many upgrades from the Pacific Rim to ensure that Jana remains healthy. However, the full-twisting double layout is a very valuable upgrade and viewers could very well see it in Boston.

Prediction: Jana is generally scored favorably by USAG, despite poor form and artistry. However, Jana has no room for error at Nationals or Olympic Trials if she is to go to Beijing. A consistent full-twisting double layout could easily propel Jana to a top 3 finish on floor. However, a top 3 finish on bars is unlikely with Priess and Memmel back in the mix, nor are fans expecting Jana to medal in the AA.

Bridget Sloan

Overview: Bridget is unlikely to compete AA at Nationals due to recovery from knee surgery, which she had after sustaining an injury at the Italy Grand Prix meet back in March. However, Bridget has said that she has improved quite a bit on bars and that she has added two skills for Nationals, thus backing up rumors that she has a 6.7 A-score there. Bridget hasn't competed since December, and many will be keen on seeing what improvements she's made and whether she is needed on the Olympic team.

Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Finishing top 3 on bars is essential if Sloan wants to go to Beijing. Her knee injury means she likely won't be competing floor at Nationals, her other strong event. Bridget plans on peaking at the Olympic Trials, which is probably a wise move. However, Bridget needs to be fully consistent with whatever apparatus she is competing at Nationals, especially uneven bars.

Potential Upgrades: Two new skills on bars; an Indiana Star newspaper video showed Sloan training a layout full-in off UB.

Prediction: Bridget and Jana make somewhat of a double-edged sword for the committee, with it looking like Bridget will be stronger than Jana on bars while the opposite will likely be true on floor. These two athletes have strengths on the two events USA needs, but with other girls looking to contribute on bars and floor as well it could mean game over for Bridget especially. However, Sloan's consistency is something that cannot be overlooked.

Darling Hill

Overview: Darling's much anticipated quest to make Olympic team really begins at these Nationals. Darling battled an injury at the Karolyi meet, scrapping vault and bars altogether. Darling's major contribution for the squad is on floor, where she mixes very difficult tumbling with quiet and calm dance. However, USAG will be wary to send Darling due to lack of international exposure and fear that the international judges will score this relative unknown harshly.

Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Winning floor! This is a tall order, with Shawn and Alicia currently ranked #1 and #2 on floor after last year's Worlds. However, as I see it, this is the only way for Darling to make the team. Shoulder problems have hindered Darling's ability on vault and bars, the latter of which she would've also hoped to make a potential contribution on. Finishing 3rd on floor can keep Hill in the mix, but will likely still be passed over because of her lack of other contributions to the team.

Potential Upgrades: N/A

Prediction: Winning floor is unlikely, with possible upgrades to come from Johnson, Sacramone, Peszek, and Bieger. Medaling is possible, but if she fails to do so she is essentially saying goodbye to her Olympic aspirations. It is unclear whether we will see Hill on vault and uneven bars. However, even if she does, upgrades are unlikely with the shoulder problems she has been having. Like other current Olympic hopeful Ashley Priess and 2004 Olympian Annia Hatch, Hill's Olympic aspirations will come down to one event, one contribution that probably won't be enough.

Ashley Priess

Overview: Ashley makes a potentially stable, and needed, contribution on USA weakest event, the bars. Ashley posted 15.75 and 15.8 on that event at the Karolyi meet, while bars rival Shayla Worley only posts scores that big when she has a very good day, and those don't come often for her. Consistency is one of Priess' strengths, and if she brings that to Nationals she could be looked upon as a very serious contender for the Olympic team.

Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Finish in the top 3, or even the top 2, on bars. Considerably outscoring Worley here will be necessary for Priess, because Worley contributes far more than Ashley on the other three events. Showing consistency is imperative, and may end up needing to rely on mistakes from Shayla Worley and/or Bridget Sloan to solidify herself as a needed commodity on just one event.

Possible Upgrades: Ashley has a 6.6 A-score on bars, but showing with consistency with that routine may prompt her to upgrade her UB routine by another tenth or two.

Prediction: I do actually expect Ashley to get 3rd on bars, ahead of Shayla, Bridget, and Jana. However, how much she can distance herself from the other three bars girls, especially Shayla, remains to be seen and could be the ultimate deciding factor in her quest to go to Beijing.

Randy Stageberg

Overview: Many might not know this girl; I didn't even feature her in my USA Olympic team outlook post. However, this dark horse brings tangible contributions to the team on both vault and floor. Stageberg competed a very solid DTY and had the highest floor score (15.3) at the recent U.S. Classic, and actually tied Sacramone for the floor exercise title at the 2006 USA's. Hardly an internationally seasoned competitor, but fans should think twice before eliminating her from the mix entirely.

Necessary Tasks to Get Done: Randi needs to finish in the top three on vault and floor for any hope of going to Beijing. Stageberg needs to show excellent consistency at Nationals, even on her weak events, in order for her to be scored favorably as a reliable competitor. Randi is very talented, but is somewhat of a headcase (i.e. unreliable competitor) when the pressure of a meet builds.

Possible Upgrades: N/A

Prediction: Unlikely to go to Beijing, but Randi would actually be a serious contender for making the team if she had more experience, thus being allowed to prove that she is a reliable competitor. Inconsistency, lack of international exposure, and lack of political favor will likely be the undoing of Stageberg's Olympic bid, but Martha K. mentioned her in an Inside Gymnastics magazine article: "Randi Stageberg has a good floor routine." She's obviously done something right.

Other Darkhorses Who Are Unlikely to Make the Team but You Never Know...

Chelsea Davis (coached by '91 World AA champ Kim Zmeskal)

Mattie Larson

Corrie Lothrop

Ashley Stott

Podium Predictions

AA

Gold: Shawn Johnson

Silver: Nastia Liukin

Bronze: Samantha Peszek

VT (medals only given for competitors that compete two vaults, but here I am just listing the top three total scores on vault from both days of competition with Alicia Sacramone likely to win, being the only US girl to compete two strong vaults.

Gold: Alicia Sacramone

#2: Shawn Johnson

#3: Samantha Peszek (could be Ivana Hong if Peszek still competes her DTY)

UB

Gold: Nastia Liukin

Silver: Chellsie Memmel

Bronze: Ashley Priess

BB

Gold: Shawn Johnson

Silver: Nastia Liukin

Bronze: Alicia Sacramone

FX

Gold: Shawn Johnson

Silver: Alicia Sacramone

Bronze: Jana Bieger

Next Post: Moscow World Cup Analysis

That is all.

The NBC Commentators Who They STILL Haven't Gotten Rid Of

Above: Just because the three commentators of NBC are less than lovely doesn't mean you have to sacrifice watching the gymnastics competition at the Olympics altogether. This post is to beware readers of what to expect from the trio of Tim, Elfi, and Al at these summer's Olympic Games.

If you live in the United States and are interested in following artistic gymnastics in the lead up and during the competition at this summer's Olympic Games, you will have to deal with what I have dubbed the Anything but Fab 3 trio of Tim Daggett, Elfi Schlegel, and Al Trautwig. I have never been a fan of any of these commentators and things are unlikely to be different any summer. NBC doesn't bother explaining viewers actual technique and explanation of skills in the routines; instead pouring out all the drama in their exceptionally biased commentary. At least they have the decency to shut up during floor exercise, and with all the blabbing that the Anything but Fab 3 does I will never understand why they don't say a word on this event. However, the Anything but Fab 3 shouldn't be as awful as to warrant viewers to mute their TV, but do look out for biased and inacurrate commentary. This post is not meaning to be a compilation of my disliking for the Anything but Fab 3, it is merely intended for those who may have not heard these commentators before to be intelligent and informed as to what to believe, and not to believe, about the commentators' thoughts of the artistic gymnastics competition as this summer's Olympics.

Tim Daggett

Career Highlights: 1984 Olympic team gold medalist, 1984 Olympic pommel horse bronze medalist

Pros: Tim Daggett is articulate and intelligent with his commentary and is very knowledgeable as to why skills go wrong. Daggett avoids going all out with the political drama surrounding events, yet does make valid points about when a routine is overscored or underscored.

Cons: Daggett is a relatively biased commentator towards the Americans and seldom goes into detail regarding the names of skills and poor form. Daggett has a very fast-paced commentary and is sometimes too quick to assume things, thus spoiling the competition in the event. He sometimes (what sounds like anyway) grunts to emphasize the difficulty of a skill, a perfect example being Alicia Sacramone's handspring laidout Rudi vault.

Outlook: Tim Daggett is the best gymnastics commentator NBC currently has, but that doesn't say much. Daggett has intelligent commentary but his biased remarks are often false. Beware of remarks such as the "USA women are easily the best in the world" or that "Shawn Johnson and Nastia Liukin will be the top two in the all-around." Daggett has quite a bit of knowledge about the USA team, but his knowledge regarding other world powers is sizably lacking.

Elfi Schlegel

Career Highlights: 1978 Commonwealth Games gold medalist, 198o Pan American Games gold medalist

Pros: Elfi Schlegel is a very blunt commentator who is unafraid of bashing gymnasts she doesn't care for. She is a big promoter of drama in gymnastics meets and is very confident in her commentary.

Cons: Schlegel defines the word biased by giving extremely generous commentary to the Americans and Canadians while being far tougher on the European nations. Elfi is quick to point out things that she doesn't like and sometimes goes overboard with her predictions of events . For example, Schlegel declared that it wasn't even a question that the USA team in 2004 was going to win gold, but the real question was by how much they would win by. In the end, Romania defeated USA for the gold and not surprisingly, Elfi didn't give any acknowledgment for her overly false and biased remark.

Outlook: You either love Elfi or you hate her, though it's safe to say most hate her. There is even a blog entitled Why I Don't Like Elfi Schlegel, and while the blog has nothing to do with Elfi it is the best blog title one could ask for. Elfi's biased commentary should get worse as the Olympics approach, and will no doubt be making early, and probably inaccurate, predictions for the U.S. to mostly win everything on the women's side. Beware of awkward, blunt, and inaccurate remarks from this commentator.

Fun Fact: At the 2003 Worlds-team finals Elfi made a shocking remark to Alexandra Chevtchenko (Russia), saying she didn't expect her to make the team because of her severe lack of talent. Subsequently, Chevtchenko nailed her opening piked full-in. However, Chevtchenko followed up with two scary falls and for once, I would have to say that Elfi was right to call such a blunt remark.

Al Trautwig

The Gymnastics Commentator who knows NOTHING about Gymnastics

Pros: N/A

Cons: Al Trautwig pretends to be an expert on gymnastics when he is hardly even a semi-casual viewer. He frequently alludes to baseball with gymnastics, when gymnastics diehards such as myself don't give a damn about baseball and want our limited gymnastics TV coverage to be about GYMNASTICS ONLY. Al is incredibly biased, even among U.S. gymnasts. At last year's Nationals Al, and really the entire Anything but Fab 3, were basically saying how Shawn Johnson is the best gymnast ever and how Nastia Liukin is so old and washed up.

Outlook: Al occasionally makes a valid, or humorous remark, but try your best to tune out everything he says this summer. His commentary is biased nonsense and probably hasn't even heard any of the international contenders at these Olympics. On the bright side Trautwig generally pronounces gymnasts' names accurately.

Fun Fact: Nastia Liukin commented after winning the 2008 Scam Cup about how many people had ridden her off and she was looking to prove her naysayers wrong. Al commented, "I wonder who ever would've remarked anything badly about Nastia Liukin." HAHAHA You know that comment from Liukin was directed right at you, Al, just admit it.

Other Notes

• The BBC and Australian commentators are far superior in my opinion; they don't build the drama to the point where it overshadows the actual gymnastics being done. I particularly like Mitch Fenner and Christine Still from BBC. They go in detail on gymnastics technique and explain why a skill goes right or wrong. They are biased for the Europeans, however, but still should provide great commentary of these Olympics which should eventually be found on Youtube.


• NBC better be armed with some good fluff pieces at these Games. I will hardly be able to stand the Anything but Fab 3, but I will be able to watch if fluff saves the day.


• Live commentary of team finals and AA finals for both the men and women will be interesting. Hopefully in AA finals NBC will consistently show us the top two groups of gymnasts, the women's side in particular should be a deep one in that event.


• If all else fails NBC better show us all eight competitors in each event final. This could actually come close to happening with NBC likely showing the majority of lesser viewed events online.

Next Post: 2008 U.S. Nationals preview-women

That is all.

U.S. Classic Update

Despite this being a low-key, unpublicized event, the senior women at the U.S. Classic yesterday evening drew a pretty good crowd at the Reliant Arena in Houston, Texas. This was actually the first gymnastics meet I've seen in person and I definitely had a lot of fun watching the girls. Many of these girls are more the NCAA types, not really having much budding potential to be successful as elites or having a realistic opportunity of going to Beijing. However, I am providing commentary with some of the gymnasts that competed last night from my point of view:



Ashley Stott- Sporting a neat green/yellow leotard, Ashley scored a 58.25 to win the AA title. She was sluggish on bars (14.2), but was the first up on beam and the most solid with a 14.95 there. She stepped out of bounds on a combination twisting pass but showed an excellent double arabian front (tucked) on floor. She closed the show with a solid Yurchenko double (slightly underscored 14.55). The only girl who looked like she was having any fun on floor, and a good competitor who just might be a great asset for the next quadrennium in either NCAA or elite. However, she has a long way to go to catch the big girls; Shawn Johnson posted a 61.875 to win her first World AA title.



Corrie Lothrop- Steady bars performance (14.7), but Corrie but took a scary fall off beam (13.7) on a side aerial/ff/layout step-out series. She closed the competition with great routines on floor (14.75) and vault (14.9). She seems to enjoy herself competing and also seems to have a good relationship with Kelli Hill, former coach of Dominique Dawes and Courtney Kupets.



Randi Stageberg-Very solid Yurchenko double (14.8), but severely lacks difficulty on bars (14.15-5.4 A-score) and fell off the beam twice (13.45). Delivered a superb floor effort (15.3), complete with a very nice piked double arabian. Martha Karolyi mentioned Randi in an Inside Gymnastics magazine interview, for her "good floor routine." Her lack of experience on the international scene is unlikely to put her on the team, but Randi is still on the Beijing radar.



Mackenzie Caquatto- Good but over scored DTY (14.95) and decent UB work (14.5). Took a scary fall on her beam dismount (13.8) and somewhat weak on floor (14.15). Given somewhat generous scores throughout the entire event. Jade Barbosa must be her favorite gymnast because of Mackenzie's ability to look like she has about to burst into tears before and after a good routine and then all of a sudden smile during the floor exercise.



Christa Tanella- Despite a post on the blog Why I Don't Like Elfi Schlegel stating how much Christa Tanella sucks despite being coached by WOGA's finest, she's actually not that bad. In fact, she had some of the best form and artistry in the entire event. Tied for first on bars and placed 3rd on beam despite several wobbles. In contrast, her WOGA compatriot Catherine Nguyen who greeted Nastia Liukin after her near beam fall at 'o6 Nats when Valeri was no where to be found, did indeed suck last night. (two falls on beam, scratched bars, expression on floor looked like she wanted to set the arena on fire).



Amber Trani-WTF? Obviously injured, she only did a layout Yurchenko! So much for my hopes of an Amanar. The Mrs. (Donna Strauss) had a stern talk with Amber after beam warm-ups and she opted to scratch beam in addition to bars. Amber looked good on floor until a fall on a double pike, where simultaneously the Mrs. grimaced to the ceiling in an almost "What has god done to me?" kind of gesture. However, the Mrs. did look somewhat happy throughout the entire event, but it was more of "I've given up/I should enjoy the ride while it lasts" happy. My question is: Why did they send Trani if they knew how out of shape she was? Jen Sey said in Chalked Up about how the Parkettes were "relieved" when Sey backed out of the 1987 World team camp due to an injury (she was actually severely out of shape) because of what would be much political embarrassment from a top club. When the announcement for who would go to Nationals came, I thought I heard Trani's name called but didn't see her with the other 11 girls who had competed and advanced to Nationals. If someone went to the event, please leave a comment to clarify this for me.

Other Notes

• Valeri Liukin looked happy throughout the entire event, even when gymnasts made mistakes. Nastia is obviously the only gymnast he cares about, and thus he is much more stern with her.
• Alaina Johnson sported a very similar leo to that of Alicia Sacramone on day one of the 2006 Nationals.
• Sarah Persinger had the exact same floor music that Alyssa Brown's used in her Scam cup routine which included the last pass fall of terror.

I will be providing commentary for the men's event tomorrow and I will include my predictions for the men's Olympic team.

That is all.

Quick Updates From the Gymnastics World

• Paul Hamm has officially broken his hand and has withdrawn from day two from the U.S. Nationals. This is too bad, and Paul has also bailed out of the Olympic Trials. Night one proved that USAG NEEDS Paul, and also his twin brother Morgan, in Beijing. Paul had a 3.7 lead in the AA, which means he could have theoretically fallen four times in finals and could have still won. Individually, Paul placed first on high bar, floor (tie with Morgan), and pommel horse. Morgan also placed first on vault. Obviously Paul should still be a lock for the team even with his hand injury, and USAG IS SCREWED if he is not healthy for the Games. I would have to say Morgan will be on the team, too, providin he keeps his strength up on floor and vault and further improves his pommel horse and high bar sets.
• A Chinese newspaper "revealed" that bars sensation He Kexin is 14, thus age-ineligible to go to the games. The article had several flaws, however, like Nastia Liukin winning three world beam titles (she's won two) and that an Olympic gymnastics team has five members (a team has six members). This provides further evidence that He Kexin is too young, but no hard proof. You would think China would be doing everything in their right mind to keep her supposed age-falsification a secret, so the fact that an admittedly unknowledgable writer let this slip is most surprising. Obviously, there is no mention of what age gymnasts must be to go the Olympic games in the article, but if this was indeed a careless error the author probably has no clue what kind of stir the number "14" is creating.
• Daria Joura easily leads the women's AA prelims at the Australian Nationals with an excellent 61.6 score. These scores look to be a tad inflated, but that score would've gotten Daria silver at last year's Worlds. The top AA podium threats appear to be (as of now) Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, and Jiang Yuyuan. However, Daria is improving and could end up peaking at the best possible time. Joura was especially superb on floor, where she marked a 15.75 and stuck her new double layout cold. Lauren Mitchell had a disastrous routine on bars and a shaky beam routine to drop to 5th. Finals are still to come, where Mitchell will look to redeem herself and Dasha will look to blow away the field.
• The Moscow World Cup will take place next week, and this is the last major international gymnastics meet prior to the Olympics. This will be an opportunity for Russia to showcase top-level gymnastics in hopes of gaining political ground on Romania for a bronze medal.
• Speaking of Olympic bronze medal, Peggy Liddick the Australian equivalent of Martha Karolyi, said that the Australian team is in it to win the bronze medal. This is an entirely biased and unrealistic statement; Romania and Russia have greatly improved since last year's worlds and the judges will have a hard time favoring a team that finished 11th last year and has lost potential assets like Hollie Dykes and Chloe Sims. If there is going to be an upset team for the medals, I would bet my money on Italy assuming Vanessa Ferrari is in peak form for the Games.
• I will be in attendance for the U.S. Classic Senior Women's competition tonight and the Senior Men's Championships Finals tomorrow evening. I will provide commentary for both events the day following each competition.

That is all.